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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 19, 2019 16:36:54 GMT -5
With the way the Red Sox season has quickly unfolded, I think it's important we keep an eye on the math of the Red Sox situation. As of April 19th, 2019 the Red Sox are currently sitting at 6-13. While we're only 22 games into a 162 game schedule. The math is quickly piling up against them.
Last year the second AL Wildcard team won 97 games. Currently the Rays are ahead of the division at 14-5 and had 90 wins a year ago. Just for the sake of argument, let's say 90 wins gets you into the playoffs. The Red Sox, who have yet to win a series, need a 58.7 winning percentage to finish the season with 90 wins. If they lose 2 out of 3 to the Rays this weekend, that number is pushed to 59.3%. For them to get to 97 wins they will need to win at a 63% clip for the rest of the year. By comparison, to get to 90 wins, the Rays will only need to win 53% of their remaining games and 58% to get to 97.
It might still be insanely early, but the odds are quickly piling against them. When you also factor the one one-game play in, I'm not sure if it would be wise for the Sox to trade what little assets they have left to buy into this team even if they do start winning at a 60% clip.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 23, 2019 22:43:01 GMT -5
After the Red Sox sweep and then today's doubleheader loss, the Red Sox need to have a 58.9 winning percentage to merely win 90 games. To get to 97 they'll need to win 63.8% of their games. The Rays need to win 54% of their games to get to 90.
The Red Sox ranking before game 2: Runs scored 22nd Hits 22nd HR 23rd OPS 22nd ERA 29th 15th most walks allowed 14th strike outs
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Post by telson13 on Apr 23, 2019 23:41:59 GMT -5
Their run differential is a really distressingly bad sign. I’m pretty shocked at how awful a team they’re managing to be with the talent they have. Their playoff chances are rapidly dwindling, which is just...bizarre. The thing is, they could easily play .650 ball from here out. But it’s looking unlikeliest each day that they even remotely approach that.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 24, 2019 6:41:13 GMT -5
Currently, the Red Sox are sitting at a 38% chance at making the playoffs, a 13% chance at winning the division and a 3% chance at winning the WS. Their projected win total sits at 85 games.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 1, 2019 13:17:31 GMT -5
Figured now would be a good time to update the numbers and figures after over a month.
The Red Sox are 29-28 the Yankees are 37-19 and the Rays are 35-20 as of June 1st. To get to 90 wins the Red Sox need to win 61 of their remaining 105 games or a winning percentage of .58. To get to 97 is even more daunting with a .6476 win percentage.
The two above the Red Sox are as follows: Yankees: 90 - .4862% 97 - .5504%
Rays: 90 - .5140% 97 - .5794%
Unless you feel like the Yankees and Rays are going to play sub-.500 ball or around that the rest of the season while the Sox play .600+, the division is over.
That's also a major concern for the 1st wild card spot. Currently, the Red Sox have a 56% chance of making the playoffs and while the 2nd wildcard is easily at play, I don't think it's worth going all in this season for a 1-game play in when you have to go on the road.
I hope/expect the Sox to be sellers at the deadline. A sweep of the Yankees would have provided a modicum of hope, but that didn't happen. A series loss would help cement this.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 1, 2019 13:58:04 GMT -5
I hope/expect the Sox to be sellers at the deadline. A sweep of the Yankees would have provided a modicum of hope, but that didn't happen. A series loss would help cement this. Given the fact that they are currently tied for a wild card spot, this is a highly unreasonable expectation based on the information available today. They are third in the AL in runs scored. Despite the common "sky is falling" story line regarding the bullpen, it has performed admirably. Starting pitching has been terrible, but getting better and with Eovaldi set to return shortly. Come off the ledge my friend. The statistically improbable bad start will eventually be balanced out by a statistically improbable 16-4 run. Enjoy the ups and downs of a long season. Yes, they're tied for the 2nd card, but you see what they have to win and what the Rays and Yankees have to lose the rest of the way to catchup? I don't see either team completely falling apart and a 1-game play in on the road is not a great situation to be in. I certainly don't want to be buyers for that opportunity. To reiterate, the Rays need to win less to get to 97 than the Sox need to win to get to 90.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2019 14:24:21 GMT -5
What kind of fan of any team hopes their team won't win when they're setup to win?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 1, 2019 14:29:05 GMT -5
What kind of fan of any team hopes their team won't win when they're setup to win? Because it's not realistic and I'd rather they get value back on players like Martinez for an extended run.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2019 14:30:41 GMT -5
What kind of fan of any team hopes their team won't win when they're setup to win? Because it's not realistic and I'd rather they get value back on players like Martinez for an extended run. It's completely realistic. They have the talent to go .700 the rest of the season like they did for long periods last year. They had just won 20 of 30 games about a week ago and you didn't show up to "do the math" until they had a bad week.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 1, 2019 14:37:52 GMT -5
Because it's not realistic and I'd rather they get value back on players like Martinez for an extended run. It's completely realistic. They have the talent to go .700 the rest of the season like they did for long periods last year. They had just won 20 of 30 games about a week ago and you didn't show up to "do the math" until they had a bad week. Regardless of their hot streak, they're still 29-28. They had a good couple of weeks. Meanwhile, the Yankees were just as good during that stretch and the Rays weren't far behind. The yankees need to win less than half their games to get to 90 while the sox need to play .580 ball. If we're confident in them in a 1-game play in, that's fine. I just think for 1 game too much luck is involved. Sale or Price could have a bad game, bad bounce, a costly error, et especially if they're on the road. Mind you the Yankees are also winning without core players as well which is also very alarming.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 1, 2019 14:47:56 GMT -5
Yes, they're tied for the 2nd card, but you see what they have to win and what the Rays and Yankees have to lose the rest of the way to catchup? I don't see either team completely falling apart and a 1-game play in on the road is not a great situation to be in. I certainly don't want to be buyers for that opportunity. To reiterate, the Rays need to win less to get to 97 than the Sox need to win to get to 90. The Red Sox don't have to catch the Rays or Yankees, they have to win one more game than the A's and Rangers. Actually, a goal of surpassing just the Rays is relatively pointless because they're still in the 1-game playoff against the Rays either way. I'm not counting out making up 8.5 games either. The Yankees did it to us in August one year, so I think we can certainly return the favor with twice as much baseball left to play. It's not just the A's and Rangers. It's the A's, Rangers, Indians, White Sox, and possibly Angels. One of these teams will get hot and make the second wild card a hard battle. The Sox will be battling the Rays and Yankees (along with the drudges of the Jays and Orioles) in their own division while other teams have a lesser battle in their own division.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 1, 2019 15:05:23 GMT -5
It's not just the A's and Rangers. It's the A's, Rangers, Indians, White Sox, and possibly Angels. One of these teams will get hot and make the second wild card a hard battle. The Sox will be battling the Rays and Yankees (along with the drudges of the Jays and Orioles) in their own division while other teams have a lesser battle in their own division. Be honest, did you laugh a little when you wrote down the White Sox? This is what a competitive season looks like. We lapped everyone last year, that almost never happens. Competition is a good thing and we're in a good position to come out ahead, enjoy it. The White Sox are in the hunt for Dallas Khechul and have pieces to get better at the deadline and have lesser teams to battle in their division. So yes I take them and that fact seriously.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2019 15:26:51 GMT -5
Too soon to be talking about selling. The Indians were 30-30 a couple of years ago and went on to win 102 games. A 95-win season is still within reach, even if it’s hard to picture right now.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
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Post by radiohix on Jun 1, 2019 15:35:57 GMT -5
Too soon to be talking about selling. The Indians were 30-30 a couple of years ago and went on to win 102 games. A 95-win season is still within reach, even if it’s hard to picture right now. The A's last year were even worse and they end up winning 98 games.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 1, 2019 19:00:56 GMT -5
The White Sox are in the hunt for Dallas Khechul and have pieces to get better at the deadline and have lesser teams to battle in their division. So yes I take them and that fact seriously. Be honest, did you laugh a little when you wrote down Dallas Khechul? That would be like the year they picked up James Shields to solve all their problems. Nah, Keuchel is likely to be a lot better than Shields. And right now, they’ve got a pretty good stable of young talent. They’re also managed to completely turn around Giolito, which borders on a coup. I’m not gung-ho on them, but I think they’ve got a chance to spoil and an outside shot at the WC2. What’s really killing me is that at the start of the season I saw MN as Vegas WS odds 25-1 or 30-1 and I wanted to put a couple hundred down, cuz with Cron and Cruz and their internal talent (no, I never saw Polanco coming, but Buxton maybe), and the Indians botching their situation, that seemed like a helluva value play. Shame on me for blowing that one.
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Post by dcb26 on Jun 1, 2019 21:09:07 GMT -5
I hope/expect the Sox to be sellers at the deadline. A sweep of the Yankees would have provided a modicum of hope, but that didn't happen. A series loss would help cement this. What was the math around someone unseating dmaineah for the most ridiculous take of the season? Yet it just happened. In comparison, the Sox odds of winning the division are great.To give some actual substance to this post, the (Red) Sox still have a very solid chance...call it 50/50, either they play up to their talent level, or they don't. If they do, the schedule is well set up for them to make up ground - Smoltz just said this on the game broadcast, but there were discussions about this way back when the schedule came out, and again in the preseason. The later part of this season was always going to be extra-important. After this weekend, the Red Sox have, if I counted correctly, 14 games remaining against each the Yankees and the Rays. Either way, their season is up to them - if they give up, then yes, there is no way they make the postseason. Given the talent on the team, I'll take my chances. Incidentally, the 2019 Red Sox remind me a ton of the 2004 team - not necessarily in a good way, more in the "coming off a long postseason and greatly under-performing expectations over the first part of the year, while fans debate whether or not to just give up" kind-of way.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 1, 2019 21:57:24 GMT -5
I don't want to say give up the division, but counting on the Red Sox to finish 1st is silly. Don't know if there are any blockbuster deals out there this July but if there is the Red Sox shouldn't be in on it. That said, "blowing up" the team makes no sense to me whatsoever. I grew up in the non-wild card era, and the idea of a wild card, let alone 2 never felt right to me - but it's there, and the reality of the situation is this: If the Sox beat out Oakland and Cleveland or perhaps another surprise entry - and they should given their talent, that means a 1 game playoff - most likely against Tampa in Tampa. I remember being thrilled that the Sox won the division against the Yankees. But I do remember having feeling of "but what did they really, really get out of that?" - other than HFA. I mean when the Yankees knocked off the A's, I remember thinking, we'll for all that, except for HFA, the Sox and Yanks are on equal footing. They're both in the playoffs. It's who plays better. And both teams, despite the large difference, were considered mostly equals. The Sox won 108, the Yankees 100. The Yankees didn't win 88 games and get lucky. But this year, it could be the Sox winning 88 games and winning just 1 game against Tampa to find themselves in the division series against the Yankees or Houston (or Minnesota? Haven't trouble believing that!) Now, honestly if the Sox are playing extremely well, and they win the play-in game, then you feel like - ok they have a shot - they're not screwed up anymore. If it's a matter of they barely got in against the other mediocrities, yeah they won their game, but they're not in the same league against whoever, then it'll feel different. But either way, the team is one of the final four left standing in playoffs, and all it takes is beating out the 6th and 7th best teams who aren't that great, and winning 1 game. So given that, plus the fact that a Red Sox team that embarrassed themselves in 2019, is likely to be extremely hungry to win - I'd take my chances that this team intact can have a different 2020. So I cannot justify them "blowing up" the team or overspending in a risky trade to try to win this year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 2, 2019 0:39:51 GMT -5
Texas now leads the second wildcard by a game. There are 3 teams tied and are back 1 game in the second wild card spot (including the Sox). There are 2 teams that are 2 games back of the second wild card. This has become a 6 team race now. Got to love your chances here.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 2, 2019 9:57:42 GMT -5
I hope/expect the Sox to be sellers at the deadline. A sweep of the Yankees would have provided a modicum of hope, but that didn't happen. A series loss would help cement this. What was the math around someone unseating dmaineah for the most ridiculous take of the season? Yet it just happened. In comparison, the Sox odds of winning the division are great.To give some actual substance to this post, the (Red) Sox still have a very solid chance...call it 50/50, either they play up to their talent level, or they don't. If they do, the schedule is well set up for them to make up ground - Smoltz just said this on the game broadcast, but there were discussions about this way back when the schedule came out, and again in the preseason. The later part of this season was always going to be extra-important. After this weekend, the Red Sox have, if I counted correctly, 14 games remaining against each the Yankees and the Rays. Either way, their season is up to them - if they give up, then yes, there is no way they make the postseason. Given the talent on the team, I'll take my chances. Incidentally, the 2019 Red Sox remind me a ton of the 2004 team - not necessarily in a good way, more in the "coming off a long postseason and greatly under-performing expectations over the first part of the year, while fans debate whether or not to just give up" kind-of way. The problem here is the gap in the records between MFY and the Red Sox. Since they've now officially lost this series it's going to be a massive uphill climb and they will need the help of both NYY and TB in stumbling to the finish line. As of before yesterday's game, NY needs to win less than half their remaining games just to get to 90 wins. You needed to go .580 (again, those numbers have gotten slightly worse after yesterday). I don't know what feels more likely, NY playing .400 ball the rest of the season or the Sox playing .600. Tampa also has a commanding lead for the WC 1 spot and the Sox are 1 back of WC 2 competing with about 6 other teams for that spot. It's a mathematically daunting task. I mean when the Yankees knocked off the A's, I remember thinking, we'll for all that, except for HFA, the Sox and Yanks are on equal footing. Teams who win the Wild Card have to use their best pitcher and can't line up their staff correctly for the first round, if they win. The A's were probably disappointed winning 97 games only to be removed from the playoff equation. Part of the reason the Yankees are so good now was that they knew when to punt on a season. Updated as of today: Red Sox chances: Predicted record 88-74 Make the playoffs 52% Win division 7% Win World Series 4%
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Post by telson13 on Jun 3, 2019 13:34:21 GMT -5
I don't want to say give up the division, but counting on the Red Sox to finish 1st is silly. Don't know if there are any blockbuster deals out there this July but if there is the Red Sox shouldn't be in on it. That said, "blowing up" the team makes no sense to me whatsoever. I grew up in the non-wild card era, and the idea of a wild card, let alone 2 never felt right to me - but it's there, and the reality of the situation is this: If the Sox beat out Oakland and Cleveland or perhaps another surprise entry - and they should given their talent, that means a 1 game playoff - most likely against Tampa in Tampa. I remember being thrilled that the Sox won the division against the Yankees. But I do remember having feeling of "but what did they really, really get out of that?" - other than HFA. I mean when the Yankees knocked off the A's, I remember thinking, we'll for all that, except for HFA, the Sox and Yanks are on equal footing. They're both in the playoffs. It's who plays better. And both teams, despite the large difference, were considered mostly equals. The Sox won 108, the Yankees 100. The Yankees didn't win 88 games and get lucky. But this year, it could be the Sox winning 88 games and winning just 1 game against Tampa to find themselves in the division series against the Yankees or Houston (or Minnesota? Haven't trouble believing that!) Now, honestly if the Sox are playing extremely well, and they win the play-in game, then you feel like - ok they have a shot - they're not screwed up anymore. If it's a matter of they barely got in against the other mediocrities, yeah they won their game, but they're not in the same league against whoever, then it'll feel different. But either way, the team is one of the final four left standing in playoffs, and all it takes is beating out the 6th and 7th best teams who aren't that great, and winning 1 game. So given that, plus the fact that a Red Sox team that embarrassed themselves in 2019, is likely to be extremely hungry to win - I'd take my chances that this team intact can have a different 2020. So I cannot justify them "blowing up" the team or overspending in a risky trade to try to win this year. Agreed that blowing up the team is a bad, bad idea. They’ve got Sale and Bogey locked up, lots of young cost-controlled guys, and two years of Mookie, plus 3/$51M in Eovaldi. Price has three more years. If anything they can re-tool with Porcello/Panda off the books and Duran looking like he’ll be ready before JBJ is gone. That’s roughly $50M. Most of it is already accounted for, particularly if they extend Mookie. But there’s plenty of evidence to say they are where they are due to some significant (Mookie, JBJ—tho predictably—, Sale, Porcello, Beni) underperformances. There aren’t any clear player needs beyond a strong ‘pen arm, just moderately better work from a lot of the guys they have. I certainly wouldn’t be upset to see them make *some* moves, with an eye towards getting younger/cheaper in some spots, but a big overhaul makes no sense. That’s in the post anyway, come expiration on Mookie, Price, JDM, JBJ all within a year of eachother.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 3, 2019 13:52:37 GMT -5
yea, my thought is that if it looks like they are still floundering a bit by trade deadline, then I would try to slightly retool for next season while not sacrificing this year. Make some small moves at the margins that might put you in a little better financial/prospect/whatever position for 2020, while thinking that the team is still good enough to grab a wildcard spot this year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2019 22:00:39 GMT -5
Waiting for an update.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 6, 2019 3:46:13 GMT -5
Playoffs or division? The Yankees are still over a 100 win game pace and the Sox are still below that. The poster didn't want the wildcard from what I think he was referring to in this thread.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 6, 2019 7:48:50 GMT -5
Playoffs or division? The Yankees are still over a 100 win game pace and the Sox are still below that. The poster didn't want the wildcard from what I think he was referring to in this thread. I asked to throw a wrench into the habit of only doing updates to make it look the most hopeless for effect. Sox are 21-12 in last 33 games.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 7, 2019 23:33:57 GMT -5
Playoffs or division? The Yankees are still over a 100 win game pace and the Sox are still below that. The poster didn't want the wildcard from what I think he was referring to in this thread. I asked to throw a wrench into the habit of only doing updates to make it look the most hopeless for effect. Sox are 21-12 in last 33 games. I'm actually waiting in blocks. If it feels like it's only when they're losing, it's because they do it a lot. I personally don't want the WC2. I also wouldn't have decided to gloat after you won the last game of a 3-game series against the Yankees and took 3 straight against the worst team in baseball. Almost on cue, they lost today against a team that's over .500. I'll pull the math tomorrow at who needs what to reach the magic numbers. Even though the Red Sox impressive 4 win streak was snapped by the very team they're trailing horribly for WC1.
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