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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2019 6:33:31 GMT -5
They're playing out the string at this point. Sounds like they'll skip Cashner at about every point left in the season and they'll even skip Porcello if the schedule allows. They know they have three pitchers pitching around league average (ERA-wise) and two starters pitching at replacement level with no viable replacements in sight.
Add in a bullpen that has a knack for blinking at the wrong time, it's pretty obvious they're not going anywhere. They have a better shot at having a losing record than they do of making the playoffs. Given how disappointing they've been the former doesn't even bother me too much and the latter is utterly ridiculous when you do the math. I mean, to win 90 games, this team would have to go 28-13. I don't think thy have that in them and even if they did they're not going to get two teams ahead of them to collapse.
Like I said, they're playing out the string at this point. The games are pretty meaningless, which is why I don't feel much joy when they win and why the losses don't bother me anymore.
I know that emotions can be frowned on by some who look at every game as a straight line. While, yes, you can't commit suicide after every loss or think that every win in a validation of a World Championship, I personally find that if I'm devoid of any emotion regarding the games, then I find that I could care less about the team. I don't mean in a big picture way, but as far as the 2019 Red Sox go, I don't care about them anymore, other than whatever they do how does it impact the 2020 Red Sox, the team that I actually do care about?
At this point, I have tickets to two games this season, one on Sunday. My only hope is that they put on a good show for him to give him a great memory - perhaps they move Sale up to pitch that day? The other game I'm going to is against the Giants in late Sept - by then they should be all but eliminated. My only hope for that day is to watch Yaz play and root for him - Mike Yastrzemski Jr, of course. It'll bring back fond memories of watching his grandpa play, my first favorite player ever - and who knows? Maybe the reclusive Carl Yastrzemski will be at the ballpark? Probably not. Probably easier for him to go to a game in Miami or Tampa if he wanted to see his grandson.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2019 1:50:14 GMT -5
What's gone wrong? A nine-way breakdown, before tonight. The numbers are Wins Above Average.
+8.7 Hitting (raw stats) +2.7 Hitting (base/out clutch. More of what they had last year) +1.8 Bullpen (inning/score clutch. Seems wrong, but includes lots of shutout ball in close games over multiple innings after starter failure) +0.6 Bullpen (raw stats) -0.4 Starters (inning / score clutch. Always close to 0) -2.1 Starters (raw stats. Probably positive if you exclude the 5th starter) -2.6 Starters (base out / clutch. Insanely prone to solid outings ruined by one or two bad innings) -6.0 Hitting (inning / score clutch. And they were quite positive through May 14!)
The talent has been +7.2 wins. Clutch hitting has been -3.3 wins, and clutch pitching has been -2.5. They rank 29th in MLB in total clutch (Win Efficiency).
Including clutch, hitting has been +5.4, starters have been -5.1, and bullpen has been +1.1.
(Rounding error is +0.1 runs in both breakdowns.)
There's nothing seriously wrong with this roster. Without the pitchers clustering their hits stupidly, and the hitters being mind-boggllingly futile with the game on the line for three months (the last night or two hopefully excluded), they're the second W/C right now.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 14, 2019 7:57:28 GMT -5
Chances at playoffs range from 1 - 4 % on BB reference, Fan graphs and 538 as of today.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 14, 2019 8:00:03 GMT -5
What's gone wrong? A nine-way breakdown, before tonight. The numbers are Wins Above Average.
+8.7 Hitting (raw stats) +2.7 Hitting (base/out clutch. More of what they had last year) +1.8 Bullpen (inning/score clutch. Seems wrong, but includes lots of shutout ball in close games over multiple innings after starter failure) +0.6 Bullpen (raw stats) -0.4 Starters (inning / score clutch. Always close to 0) -2.1 Starters (raw stats. Probably positive if you exclude the 5th starter) -2.6 Starters (base out / clutch. Insanely prone to solid outings ruined by one or two bad innings) -6.0 Hitting (inning / score clutch. And they were quite positive through May 14!)
The talent has been +7.2 wins. Clutch hitting has been -3.3 wins, and clutch pitching has been -2.5. They rank 29th in MLB in total clutch (Win Efficiency).
Including clutch, hitting has been +5.4, starters have been -5.1, and bullpen has been +1.1.
(Rounding error is +0.1 runs in both breakdowns.)
There's nothing seriously wrong with this roster. Without the pitchers clustering their hits stupidly, and the hitters being mind-boggllingly futile with the game on the line for three months (the last night or two hopefully excluded), they're the second W/C right now.
Your stats analysis matches spot on with the "eyes" test...impressions and observations from watching or listening to essentially every game. Well done and thanks. Also interesting would be a comparative look at Cora's in game management/decision making, which is probably a lot of work!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 15, 2019 5:35:01 GMT -5
If the Sox put up a 6 or 7 game winning streak real soon, they could be right back in this race and they're schedule is about to soften up really nice until September.
The Sox play a team with a winning record 2 games out of 13 in the rest of August.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 16, 2019 22:03:23 GMT -5
65-59 after the Baltimore win, 6 over .500, 124 games played, 38 remain.
25-13 needed to get to 90 wins.
Best chances - 2 Balt, 4 Phila, 3 SD, 2 Col, 3 Angels, completion of KC, 3 Tor, 3 SF, 3 Tex, 3 Balt - 27 games - win 2/3 of them gets 18 wins Toughest games - 4 Tampa, 4 NY, 3 Minn - 11 games - win half of them gets 5-6 games
That would be an 89-90 win season. So they have to do better than the above, I think.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2019 22:08:28 GMT -5
65-59 after the Baltimore win, 6 over .500, 124 games played, 38 remain. 25-13 needed to get to 90 wins. Best chances - 2 Balt, 4 Phila, 3 SD, 2 Col, 3 Angels, completion of KC, 3 Tor, 3 SF, 3 Tex, 3 Balt - 27 games - win 2/3 of them gets 18 wins Toughest games - 4 Tampa, 4 NY, 3 Minn - 11 games - win half of them gets 5-6 games That would be an 89-90 win season. So they have to do better than the above, I think. Don't think that's enough to get them into the playoffs either. Tampa and Cleveland/Minnesota are already at 20 games or more above .500. They're not likely playing less than .500 the rest of the way. And of course Oakland is about 16 games over. The Sox would have an awfully long way to go. And they still got 4 games left to play against the Yankees and some more left with Tampa. I just hope Cora doesn't do the rover thing down the stretch and mess up his starters for next year even worse. It's not worth it. For the post-season, yes, but for a quarter of the regular season, no.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 18, 2019 17:09:04 GMT -5
So...67-59 after the series with Baltimore - 126 games done, 8 over .500, 36 remain.
23-13 to get to 90 wins, 26-10 to get to 93 wins.
25 games against weaker teams - taking 2/3 of them is 16 wins. 11 games against strong teams - taking half gives us 6 wins. gets us only close to 90 wins.
We need to take more than that 2/3 against the weak teams to have a chance
playoff chances - ESPN has us at 6.5%, 538 at 5%, Fangraphs at 6.5%, Baseball reference at 2.3%
Can the team ignite and beat these long odds?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 18, 2019 17:59:42 GMT -5
So...67-59 after the series with Baltimore - 126 games done, 8 over .500, 36 remain. 23-13 to get to 90 wins, 26-10 to get to 93 wins. 25 games against weaker teams - taking 2/3 of them is 16 wins. 11 games against strong teams - taking half gives us 6 wins. gets us only close to 90 wins. We need to take more than that 2/3 against the weak teams to have a chance playoff chances - ESPN has us at 6.5%, 538 at 5%, Fangraphs at 6.5%, Baseball reference at 2.3% Can the team ignite and beat these long odds? With no Sale, it's going to be impossible to do all this. It's nice that they can crush the Orioles, but everyone can. What a deflating injury that was.
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Post by caseytins on Aug 19, 2019 23:24:19 GMT -5
6 back, with three games left versus TB. This is far from over.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 20, 2019 9:19:56 GMT -5
6 back, with three games left versus TB. This is far from over. You have to expect the Red Sox to lose some games along the way and you also have Oakland to worry about. You're also planning on making a monumental run without both Price and Sale and your rotation has been suspect all year. This would be an incredible run, but honestly, even if they get in, it's hard to get too excited about their chances. This would make the 2013 Red Sox look like just another day at the office. This would be a Disney movie in the making.
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pd
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Post by pd on Aug 20, 2019 10:29:35 GMT -5
6 back, with three games left versus TB. This is far from over. You have to expect the Red Sox to lose some games along the way and you also have Oakland to worry about. You're also planning on making a monumental run without both Price and Sale and your rotation has been suspect all year. This would be an incredible run, but honestly, even if they get in, it's hard to get too excited about their chances. This would make the 2013 Red Sox look like just another day at the office. This would be a Disney movie in the making. So you're saying there's a chance?!!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2019 11:02:49 GMT -5
6 back, with three games left versus TB. This is far from over. You have to expect the Red Sox to lose some games along the way and you also have Oakland to worry about. You're also planning on making a monumental run without both Price and Sale and your rotation has been suspect all year. This would be an incredible run, but honestly, even if they get in, it's hard to get too excited about their chances. This would make the 2013 Red Sox look like just another day at the office. This would be a Disney movie in the making. Price is already throwing bullpens and the hope is that he misses just one more start (tonight), and goes Sunday in San Diego.
Meanwhile, they don't need a 5th starter until September 7. There are so many off days over the next 14 games that half of the starts in a 4-man rotation will be with an extra day of rest. E-Rod will go 5-4-5, Eovaldi 5-5-4, and Porcello 4-5-4. If Price can pitch Sunday he gets 5 days before going against the A's near the end of the West Coast trip.
If they do this, it'll be because Porcello and Eovaldi pitch as well as they're capable of, and either Cashner or Johnson settles in as a solid 5th starter for the final 4 or 5 times through the rotation.
In the last week, the Sox played 12.2% of their remaining games, going 5-0.
They erased 23% of their deficit to Oakland (who went 4-2), 29% of their deficit to Tampa (3-3), and 32% of their deficit to Cleveland (2-4).
(From 6.5 GB to 5, from 8.5 games to 6, and from 11 games to 7.5.)
The three teams we're chasing went just 9-7 in games where they weren't playing us. This does need to happen often.
Tampa Bay lost to the Padres, Tigers, and Mariners, so maybe their little skid can continue. Oakland lost to the Giants and failed to sweep the Astros at home, and since we have no head-to-head are clearly the bigger problem.
The Indians are the wild card in the wild card race. Their 4 losses were to us and the Yankees, so it's hard to see them as currently playing poorly.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 20, 2019 21:42:42 GMT -5
67-60, 127 played, only 35 remain.
need to play .657 ball - 23-12 - to win 90 games. Tampa just needs to go 17-19 to win 90. Oakland 19-19 gets them 90. ESPN gives us a 5.5% chance, Fangraphs 5.7%.
Not impossible, not likely.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2019 21:55:02 GMT -5
67-60, 127 played, only 35 remain. need to play .657 ball - 23-12 - to win 90 games. Tampa just needs to go 17-19 to win 90. Oakland 19-19 gets them 90. ESPN gives us a 5.5% chance, Fangraphs 5.7%. Not impossible, not likely. Well if they play the Orioles 35 more times this year, I like their chances. If they don't and they have to play actual real teams that actually don't play .300 baseball, then I wouldn't sweat it. They're not getting in. To me the only math is the magic number of 35, the number of games left to end this wretched season and then get to the really interesting drama - how the Red Sox ownership/FO reacts to the embarrassing failure of the season, and what they do. I bet that the offseason drama is a lot more interesting than anything that happens in the field over the next 35 games or really over the entire boring season that 2019 has been.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 21, 2019 21:53:37 GMT -5
Yet another uninspiring home game leaves the hapless Sox at 67-61, only 6 games over .500, 128 played, 34 remain.
23-11 needed to get to 90 wins. Starting to become impossible....and not at all likely. They are playing as if they are toast.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 21, 2019 22:24:51 GMT -5
Yet another uninspiring home game leaves the hapless Sox at 67-61, only 6 games over .500, 128 played, 34 remain. 23-11 needed to get to 90 wins. Starting to become impossible....and not at all likely. They are playing as if they are toast. They've been playing like toast since that 8 game losing streak to NYY and TB finished their season. It's kind of like beating a dead horse. Don't see much purpose in this thread anymore, to be honest. Only an optimist with no real reason to be optimistic other than to be optimistic would think that this team is actually playing for anything anymore. The season is over, and has been over for awhile. At this point are we really surprised when the Red Sox lose to a team with a winning record anymore? You can only play the Orioles, Royals, and Tigers for so long.... At first I didn't pay too much attention to their record against winning teams, thought it was a short-term fluke and that eventually this team would get blazing hot and make the playoffs. It's simply not happening. They could play better, but it wouldn't matter. Both the Rays and A's aren't tanking and if they did, doubt the Sox would do much to take advantage of it really. The 2019 team is really, really hard to root for or care about. At this point, enjoy Devers and X and see how gaudy the offensive numbers look (they'll lose the 3-2 games and win 14-8 to make the offensive numbers look nice). All I care about at this point is that somehow, someway the Yankees don't win the Series. Houston is a better all around team but the Yanks have had a better knack for winning thus far. Just hope Correa will be ok, the Astros will be healthy, and the rotation of Verlander, Greinke, Cole, and Miley with their offense and bullpen will prevail. Hell at this point, I hope the Dodgers win it all. They've been knocking on the door long enough.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 21, 2019 23:05:07 GMT -5
Ya know what? Like I did for most of my Red Sox life, I will just enjoy every win for the rest of the season. That's what baseball has always been to me.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 22, 2019 6:16:48 GMT -5
Ya know what? Like I did for most of my Red Sox life, I will just enjoy every win for the rest of the season. That's what baseball has always been to me. I get it. For me, not every win feels equal. Some mean a lot, some our part of something bigger, and some are just meaningless, and I find the wins feel empty - again for me. On the flip side, the losses don't sting at all. And in a weird way, the more they lose, the better their draft position comes, not that I'm calling for them to tank, because they're going to be in the teens one way or the other, and I'm at the point of just let the chips fall where they may. They'll probably win 83 - 88 games at this point. But as they say - to each their own. Everybody experiences things differently, including the enjoyment of wins. So enjoy. I'm already in offseason mode wondering if the Sox have a fall guy and how they plan to improve things going forward as I do believe the Red Sox are approaching the crossroads we all knew they would at some point - (a year sooner than I would have thought).
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2019 10:22:39 GMT -5
Ya know what? Like I did for most of my Red Sox life, I will just enjoy every win for the rest of the season. That's what baseball has always been to me. I get it. For me, not every win feels equal. Some mean a lot, some our part of something bigger, and some are just meaningless, and I find the wins feel empty - again for me. On the flip side, the losses don't sting at all. And in a weird way, the more they lose, the better their draft position comes, not that I'm calling for them to tank, because they're going to be in the teens one way or the other, and I'm at the point of just let the chips fall where they may. They'll probably win 83 - 88 games at this point. But as they say - to each their own. Everybody experiences things differently, including the enjoyment of wins. So enjoy. I'm already in offseason mode wondering if the Sox have a fall guy and how they plan to improve things going forward as I do believe the Red Sox are approaching the crossroads we all knew they would at some point - (a year sooner than I would have thought). It feels like watching Spring Training baseball, or a Cubs-Reds game. There's just no emotion behind it anymore. It's just watching for the sake of wanting to watch baseball.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 22, 2019 10:49:25 GMT -5
I get it. For me, not every win feels equal. Some mean a lot, some our part of something bigger, and some are just meaningless, and I find the wins feel empty - again for me. On the flip side, the losses don't sting at all. And in a weird way, the more they lose, the better their draft position comes, not that I'm calling for them to tank, because they're going to be in the teens one way or the other, and I'm at the point of just let the chips fall where they may. They'll probably win 83 - 88 games at this point. But as they say - to each their own. Everybody experiences things differently, including the enjoyment of wins. So enjoy. I'm already in offseason mode wondering if the Sox have a fall guy and how they plan to improve things going forward as I do believe the Red Sox are approaching the crossroads we all knew they would at some point - (a year sooner than I would have thought). It feels like watching Spring Training baseball, or a Cubs-Reds game. There's just no emotion behind it anymore. It's just watching for the sake of wanting to watch baseball. While thinking of Yaz on his 80th birthday I'm remembering something he said to the effect of how playing for that pennant race is what drove him. When they were out of the race he felt like he was going through the motions - he hustled, etc, but that feeling of excitement just wasn't there. It's part of what made him decide to retire in 1983. As the Sox fell out of the pennant race, he said he wasn't feeling as awful and beating himself up as badly when he was struggling toward the end of the season. The mental edge wasn't there and he figured that they wouldn't be in a pennant race in 1984 either (they weren't - the Tigers took care of that for everybody in the first quarter of the season), so he decided to retire. He did have thoughts of coming back in 1984 as he was hitting over .300 at the all-star break, but that little extra wasn't there for him. As a fan, that's kind of how it feels - like they're in spring training mode but without the hope (at least for 2019). There is no emotion behind it anymore and I find if I don't have that emotion/passion I am watching baseball for the sake of watching baseball - which I will do because I love baseball, Red Sox baseball in particular, but without that type of edge to it, I guess for me it's just not the same. I look forward to watching post-season baseball, particularly if the Yankees get knocked off - then I'll enjoy it because I love the edge that's there in those games that matter so much to their fanbases and the players themselves. You get the sense that your witnessing a piece of (sports) history, or at least that's the mode I get into when the Sox aren't around and when the Yankees can't win. With the Yankees around, there's always that dread of them winning, but that's only because I personally can't stand that franchise and hope that they go through 86 years of not winning. But once that's removed, I mostly stop rooting for anything but a seven game series in which I have absolutely no idea who will win until the very end.
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jdb
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Post by jdb on Aug 22, 2019 11:55:34 GMT -5
Sounds like the best draft in nearly a decade on paper. MLB Pipeline @mlbpipeline The 2020 #MLBDraft class might be the most talented since 2011, and unlike this year's crop, college pitching is one of its strengths. Here's @jimcallismlb 's look at the Top 15 college @mlbdraft prospects: atmlb.com/2TSThti
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 22, 2019 13:04:46 GMT -5
A quick win...68-61, 129 down, 33 to go.
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 22, 2019 13:28:45 GMT -5
It feels like watching Spring Training baseball, or a Cubs-Reds game. There's just no emotion behind it anymore. It's just watching for the sake of wanting to watch baseball. The last game I attended in Wrigley was a Cubs-Reds game, it was a blast...Im honestly not sure what your point is. I dunno, I'm plenty disappointed about how this season has gone, but still love to watch the game as much as ever, and enjoy baseball for baseball's sake.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2019 14:13:16 GMT -5
It feels like watching Spring Training baseball, or a Cubs-Reds game. There's just no emotion behind it anymore. It's just watching for the sake of wanting to watch baseball. The last game I attended in Wrigley was a Cubs-Reds game, it was a blast...Im honestly not sure what your point is. I dunno, I'm plenty disappointed about how this season has gone, but still love to watch the game as much as ever, and enjoy baseball for baseball's sake. I mean as a Red Sox fan with no ties to either team. Interchange Cubs-Reds with Pirates-Mets or Padres-Angels.
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