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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2019 22:22:21 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the Wild Card, period, let alone the 2 wild card system, but it's here. The reality is that playing in Tampa is as close to a home game as you can have if you're the Red Sox. Those are huge pro-Tampa crowds at the Trop. If it gets filled it's because Red Sox fans would be filling the ballpark. The real issue in a playoff game against the Rays is having to face Blake Snell. You'd kind of have to hope the Rays need to win the last day to have a shot at the division and burn out Snell. Not really likely. Either way, it's a 1 game playoff and if a team is going to lose and have it be less painful it would be WC2, because if you're WC1, that means you likely just missed winning your division so there's that disappointment, and if you get knocked out in the WC game, it doubly stings. Sort of like the Cubs last year. That was brutal for them. If you're WC2 and you lose, well, what's the big deal? You beat out the best of a bad lot and if you can't beat WC1, what shot did you really have winning an additional 11 games? You just chalk it up as WC2 wasn't good enough to win and didn't deserve to go forward. Less painful than WC1. So at that point, really, WC2 doesn't have much to lose. If they win the WC game, cool. If they lose, oh well - wasn't their year anyways. Well, now we're looking at a real possibility of NY being that 1-game play-in and we know those fans show up. Snell or Glasnow (assuming both are still pitching this way) scare the living crap out of me. Plenty of championship teams have lost game 1 of a series, which is why the 1-game play-in is both insanely fun, but incredibly stupid. But I'm all for going for WC2, to a degree. Is it worth wasting assets to get there? Let's say a team, like the Rays, want to get stupid and offer you Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, and Brent Honeywell for Mookie Betts. Do you say no because you have hopes for 2019 WC2? NM, just not important right now.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 9, 2019 22:54:03 GMT -5
Well, now we're looking at a real possibility of NY being that 1-game play-in and we know those fans show up. Snell or Glasnow (assuming both are still pitching this way) scare the living crap out of me. Plenty of championship teams have lost game 1 of a series, which is why the 1-game play-in is both insanely fun, but incredibly stupid. But I'm all for going for WC2, to a degree. Is it worth wasting assets to get there? Let's say a team, like the Rays, want to get stupid and offer you Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, and Brent Honeywell for Mookie Betts. Do you say no because you have hopes for 2019 WC2? The Rays would never make such a trade. They're way too smart to do something stupid that would wreck their future. Renting Betts for a year and a fraction at the expense of destroying their long-term future makes no sense. The Sox don't have a ton of assets to trade off. Nor should they. Just because they're underachieving in 2019 that doesn't mean they couldn't be great in 2020. I think part of what drove the Red Sox to great heights in 2018 was their hunger. Those guys were starved for a Championship. They got their butts handed to them in 2016 and 2017 and there was the talk that they weren't what they were cracked up to be. I think they took it personal and it was a motivating factor. No it doesn't MAKE you win games, but when there's a major hunger it can be a difference maker. Now they've won. Other teams are gunning for them and the Sox have played like they're hungover from the party. But if they disappoint this year, I suspect the hunger will return and next year things would go differently. Essentially it's the same team for all 3 years. Year 1 - everything went their way - top 1% scenario. Year 2 - not much is working out - struggling nearly 40% into the season - will probably win around 87 - 93 games, maybe even more - but a bottom imagined scenario given last year. Year 3 - probably in between Year 1 and Year 2. If that's so then you're looking at a 93 - 100 win team. You don't want to start dumping core guys off the 2019 team just because it disappointed. You'll need them for the 2020 rebound. But that still doesn't answer the question. I'm not asking how likely of a scenario, just if the scenario played itself out. I purposely entered a stupid deal as a scenario. At some point, those core guys get old. Price will be a year older, Martinez could be gone, but will be a year older, Betts could be gone after 2020, Moreland will be a year older, Porcello could be gone.. I do think the Red Sox should be fine for a few years with a few tweeks here and there.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2019 23:24:16 GMT -5
The Rays would never make such a trade. They're way too smart to do something stupid that would wreck their future. Renting Betts for a year and a fraction at the expense of destroying their long-term future makes no sense. The Sox don't have a ton of assets to trade off. Nor should they. Just because they're underachieving in 2019 that doesn't mean they couldn't be great in 2020. I think part of what drove the Red Sox to great heights in 2018 was their hunger. Those guys were starved for a Championship. They got their butts handed to them in 2016 and 2017 and there was the talk that they weren't what they were cracked up to be. I think they took it personal and it was a motivating factor. No it doesn't MAKE you win games, but when there's a major hunger it can be a difference maker. Now they've won. Other teams are gunning for them and the Sox have played like they're hungover from the party. But if they disappoint this year, I suspect the hunger will return and next year things would go differently. Essentially it's the same team for all 3 years. Year 1 - everything went their way - top 1% scenario. Year 2 - not much is working out - struggling nearly 40% into the season - will probably win around 87 - 93 games, maybe even more - but a bottom imagined scenario given last year. Year 3 - probably in between Year 1 and Year 2. If that's so then you're looking at a 93 - 100 win team. You don't want to start dumping core guys off the 2019 team just because it disappointed. You'll need them for the 2020 rebound. But that still doesn't answer the question. I'm not asking how likely of a scenario, just if the scenario played itself out. I purposely entered a stupid deal as a scenario. At some point, those core guys get old. Price will be a year older, Martinez could be gone, but will be a year older, Betts could be gone after 2020, Moreland will be a year older, Porcello could be gone.. I do think the Red Sox should be fine for a few years with a few tweeks here and there. I know what you meant. We both know Tampa wouldn't do that. I think the core still has some more prime years left, though. Yes, JDM will be older and could leave, but I think his hitting skills are still intact. With him, if his back is ok, I'd expect JDM to continue to rake for awhile. David Price is making a great adjustment. If he stays healthy no reason he can't be mostly effective through his 2022 season. No reason the Sox can't make Betts a monster offer and sign him. If they don't, they should have about $20 - $30 million to sign somebody else, but while I can't swear the Sox will sign him, I think they will prioritize him. Bogaerts is young. Devers is still very young. Benintendi is young. These aren't 32 year olds. Sale will be 32 and yeah, you can have concern on the starting pitching side. Eovaldi, Price and Sale are or will be on the wrong side of 30 and we don't know if E-Rod will ever step forward. Moreland isn't really a core piece. He and Pearce will be gone. Porcello will be too. I suspect they'll stick it out with JBJ and let him leave. By then they could have another core piece in place if Duran turns out as hoped. Hopefully Chavis can get a handle on his issues of hitting high fastballs and be a viable 2b candidate. Perhaps Dalbec or even Ockimey steps forward at 1b until Casas is ready down the road. At some point Cannon could come fast as the Sox 2b. It's too bad he won't succeed Pedroia. That's a timeline that could have worked out if not for Manny Machado. I guess what I'm saying is in the lineup I can kind of see the succession plan forming. The pitching staff is a lot more murkier with no starting pitching prospects on the horizon. They need Groome to get healthy and show his pedigree. If Houck could handle lefties or Hernandez could throw consistent strikes, but I'm not counting on it, although if those two can't start, they could be part of the future bullpen, along with Feltman, so you can see some of the transitioning going on while keeping the core intact.
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Post by costpet on Jun 10, 2019 9:11:42 GMT -5
Really good evaluation. I see more intelligent stuff here than any of the professional web sites.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 20, 2019 17:05:18 GMT -5
Figured now would be a good time to update the numbers and figures after over a month. The Red Sox are 29-28 the Yankees are 37-19 and the Rays are 35-20 as of June 1st. To get to 90 wins the Red Sox need to win 61 of their remaining 105 games or a winning percentage of .58. To get to 97 is even more daunting with a .6476 win percentage. The two above the Red Sox are as follows: Yankees: 90 - .4862% 97 - .5504% Rays: 90 - .5140% 97 - .5794% Unless you feel like the Yankees and Rays are going to play sub-.500 ball or around that the rest of the season while the Sox play .600+, the division is over. That's also a major concern for the 1st wild card spot. Currently, the Red Sox have a 56% chance of making the playoffs and while the 2nd wildcard is easily at play, I don't think it's worth going all in this season for a 1-game play in when you have to go on the road. I hope/expect the Sox to be sellers at the deadline. A sweep of the Yankees would have provided a modicum of hope, but that didn't happen. A series loss would help cement this. I feel like here is a good place to reference back to. Since June 1st the following teams have performed the following: Yankees: 10-8 RS: 110 RA: 94 (18 games) Rays: 8-12 RS: 86 RA: 91 (20 games) Rangers: 12-8 RS: 106 RA: 97 (20 games) Indians: 11-6 RS: 95 RA: 63 (17 games) Athletics: 11-8 RS: 105 RA: 90 (19 games) Angels: 11-8 RS: 111 RA: 98 (19 games) Chi Sox: 7-8 RS: RS: 60 RA: 77 (15 games) Red Sox: 12-7 RS: 104 RA: 79 (19 games) In this month, the Red Sox appear to have the best record by 0.5 games over the Rangers. They have only scored less than the Angels (111), Athletics (105), Rangers (106 in 1 more game), and Yankees (110, 1 less game). The teams who have given up less runs are Chi Sox (77, 4 less games), Indians (63, 1 less game). On June 1st the records were as follows: Yankees: 38-19 Rays: 35-21 Rangers: 29-27 Indians: 29-29 Athletics: 29-29 Angels: 28-30 Chi Sox: 28-30 Red Sox: 29-29 As of 6/21 at 930 EST they are: Yankees: 47-27 Rays: 43-32 Rangers: 40-35 Indians: 39-35 Athletics: 40-36 Angels: 38-38 Chi Sox: 35-37 Red Sox: 41-35 No real separation from the middle on the current run the Red Sox are on, but they have retaken the WC2 and have cut deeply into TBs lead. For the division title the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox have played the following in the month of June: Yankees: 55.5% Rays: 40% Red Sox: 63.15% To get to 90 and 97 wins: Yankees- 90: 49% 97: 57% Rays- 90: 54% 97: 62% Red Sox- 90: 57% 97: 65% The WC1 feels more in play than before. While I don't expect the Rays to continue playing .400 ball, their upcoming schedule looks like this: 4 @ Oakland 3 @ Minnesota 3 vs Texas 3 vs Baltimore 4 vs Yankees 4 @ Baltimore 4 @ Yankees 3 vs White Sox (if still in the hunt) 3 vs Boston 3 @ Toronto 3 @ Boston That's a tough schedule. The Red Sox will have 14 straight games of Rays and Yankees towards the end of July and into August. Unfortunately, the Red Sox haven't appeared to make much of a dent into the division lead and the Yankees are getting some of their heavy hitters back. Current playoff projections for the Red Sox: 63% make the playoffs 14% win the division 6% win the World Series Please feel free to check my math.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 21, 2019 9:22:02 GMT -5
2019 Run Differential per team as of 6/21 10am: Houston: +95 Twins: +107 Yankees: +93 Rays: +79 Rangers: +28 Indians: +15 Athletics: +45 Angels: +7 Chi Sox: -59 Red Sox: +55
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Post by incandenza on Jun 21, 2019 13:12:50 GMT -5
Current playoff projections for the Red Sox: 63% make the playoffs 14% win the division 6% win the World Series Please feel free to check my math. For what it's worth, fangraphs says 11% to win the division, 73% to make the playoffs, 7% to win the World Series. They have them as the 6th most likely team to win the Series.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2019 12:42:35 GMT -5
I checked a couple of days ago and the Sox and Yankees had identical expected Win % based on offensive xwOBA and defensive wOBA (which includes defense). The 7 game lead was entirely situational (etc.). The Yankees have a clear six best hitters. Here they are in a reasonable order, with their 2018-2019 K rates relative to the average rate (for all players with 450+ PA in the year-and-a half): (Yes, they can play them all by putting Stanton in LF, which they have done. And he's good out there like he is in RF).
+47% Aaron Judge (R)
+47% Giancarlo Stanton (R)
+03% Edwin Encarnacion (R)
+24% Gary Sanchez (R)
+26% Luke Voit (R)
+17% Glyber Torres (R) To call this lineup one-dimensional would be an insult to lines.
The Red Sox: +03% J.D. Martinez (R) -29% Mookie Betts (R) -20% Rafael Devers (L) (since 4/15; actually +04% overall) -15% Xander Bogaerts (R) -11% Andrew Benintendi (L) +11% Brock Holt (L) (Axe bat, functional corneas. .350 / .424 / .544 in 184 PA. He has been a little lucky, .380 xwOBA versus .409 wOBA. But the former figure puts him as the 6th best hitter on the team.) Whether it is massively true that one of these teams is better built for post-season success than the other is a subject for further research.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 22, 2019 13:29:41 GMT -5
I checked a couple of days ago and the Sox and Yankees had identical expected Win % based on offensive xwOBA and defensive wOBA (which includes defense). The 7 game lead was entirely situational (etc.). The Yankees have a clear six best hitters. Here they are in a reasonable order, with their 2018-2019 K rates relative to the average rate (for all players with 450+ PA in the year-and-a half): (Yes, they can play them all by putting Stanton in LF, which they have done. And he's good out there like he is in RF).
+47% Aaron Judge (R)
+47% Giancarlo Stanton (R)
+03% Edwin Encarnacion (R)
+24% Gary Sanchez (R)
+26% Luke Voit (R)
+17% Glyber Torres (R) To call this lineup one-dimensional would be an insult to lines.
The Red Sox: +03% J.D. Martinez (R) -29% Mookie Betts (R) -20% Rafael Devers (L) (since 4/15; actually +04% overall) -15% Xander Bogaerts (R) -11% Andrew Benintendi (L) +11% Brock Holt (L) (Axe bat, functional corneas. .350 / .424 / .544 in 184 PA. He has been a little lucky, .380 xwOBA versus .409 wOBA. But the former figure puts him as the 6th best hitter on the team.) Whether it is massively true that one of these teams is better built for post-season success than the other is a subject for further research.
I remember hearing Brandon McCarthy on a podcast, ca. the 2018 playoffs, talking about how as a pitcher he's rather face the Yankees lineup than the Red Sox'. His reasoning was that with the Yankees, each guy was sort of an indivudal battle, whereas the Red Sox lineup was more integrated - that had an approach, from top to bottom, that was relentless, where one guy would feed on the last. I don't think that's exactly reducible to the Sox' high BB and lower K rates, but I think that was a part of it. Of course that was 2018. There's a legitimate question whether you could say the same given the 2019 versions of Mookie, JDM, and Benintendi. (Then again, 2019 Devers, Bogaerts, and Vaquez...)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2019 15:53:58 GMT -5
I checked a couple of days ago and the Sox and Yankees had identical expected Win % based on offensive xwOBA and defensive wOBA (which includes defense). The 7 game lead was entirely situational (etc.). The Yankees have a clear six best hitters. Here they are in a reasonable order, with their 2018-2019 K rates relative to the average rate (for all players with 450+ PA in the year-and-a half): (Yes, they can play them all by putting Stanton in LF, which they have done. And he's good out there like he is in RF).
+47% Aaron Judge (R)
+47% Giancarlo Stanton (R)
+03% Edwin Encarnacion (R)
+24% Gary Sanchez (R)
+26% Luke Voit (R)
+17% Glyber Torres (R) To call this lineup one-dimensional would be an insult to lines.
The Red Sox: +03% J.D. Martinez (R) -29% Mookie Betts (R) -20% Rafael Devers (L) (since 4/15; actually +04% overall) -15% Xander Bogaerts (R) -11% Andrew Benintendi (L) +11% Brock Holt (L) (Axe bat, functional corneas. .350 / .424 / .544 in 184 PA. He has been a little lucky, .380 xwOBA versus .409 wOBA. But the former figure puts him as the 6th best hitter on the team.) Whether it is massively true that one of these teams is better built for post-season success than the other is a subject for further research.
I remember hearing Brandon McCarthy on a podcast, ca. the 2018 playoffs, talking about how as a pitcher he's rather face the Yankees lineup than the Red Sox'. His reasoning was that with the Yankees, each guy was sort of an indivudal battle, whereas the Red Sox lineup was more integrated - that had an approach, from top to bottom, that was relentless, where one guy would feed on the last. I don't think that's exactly reducible to the Sox' high BB and lower K rates, but I think that was a part of it. Of course that was 2018. There's a legitimate question whether you could say the same given the 2019 versions of Mookie, JDM, and Benintendi. (Then again, 2019 Devers, Bogaerts, and Vaquez...) What we don't have readily available is splits by opponent quality (done by handedness). You can look at situations where hitters are likely to face elite relievers, Late and Close, or High Leverage in selected innings, but that's not quite the same.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 24, 2019 16:11:21 GMT -5
I mean, in 2019, it seems pretty clear you'd rather face the Red Sox' lineup than the Yankees', right?
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Post by incandenza on Jun 24, 2019 16:54:21 GMT -5
I mean, in 2019, it seems pretty clear you'd rather face the Red Sox' lineup than the Yankees', right? Well, probably, but it's still relevant to consider what sort of lineups play up or play down in the playoffs.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 24, 2019 20:26:11 GMT -5
This team will be sellers. Can’t have a good season if you are constantly playing like crap at home. And against crappy teams aswell.
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Post by jdb on Jun 27, 2019 6:01:10 GMT -5
So by count we have 27 games before July 31st with 14 coming vs NYY, TB and the LAD. The first 5 games after the deadline are NYY and TB. It’s going to be an uphill battle considering the Indians have gotten good news on the pitching front and will have a bulk of the games vs the central.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 27, 2019 6:57:26 GMT -5
To those saying the Red Sox will be sellers... you realize they're 1 game back of a playoff spot, yes? If we're being realistic, the division probably isn't happening, but they're 1 game back having had a four-man rotation since mid-April.
This team has problems, sure, but to say with any confidence they'll be sellers at this point is kind of crazy.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 27, 2019 7:28:41 GMT -5
Sox are 2 games back of the Rays. I bet they catch them by the end of the season.
As for selling, what would you sell? It isn’t just this year, but next as well. This team dominated last year, is off this year, but could dominate with tweaks next year. Why scrap it?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 27, 2019 7:37:37 GMT -5
Just so it doesn't come off as trolling, I plan to update after the NYY series.
As of right now, their 14 game stretch should tell DD what he should do with this team and be ready to pull a deal that will buy into this team or build for the future.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 27, 2019 8:32:33 GMT -5
To those saying the Red Sox will be sellers... you realize they're 1 game back of a playoff spot, yes? If we're being realistic, the division probably isn't happening, but they're 1 game back having had a four-man rotation since mid-April. This team has problems, sure, but to say with any confidence they'll be sellers at this point is kind of crazy. Totally this. At this point it's a waste of energy even worrying about the Yankees anymore. When the Red Sox swept the early August 4 game series last year from NY the division race was virtually over. Unless the Red Sox sweep the 2 game set, this division race is virtually over already. Even if they do, I wouldn't give much for the Red Sox' chances of catching the Yankees. However, the Red Sox still have a strong shot at a Wild Card spot or even hosting the Wild Card game, although at this point I don't know how much of an advantage a Fenway game would be given how poorly they have played at home. You have to figure if the Sox can get a closer and the other relievers kind of fall into their roles, it will make the bullpen's job go smoother and if the Red Sox stop handing games away or at least limit it and Betts and JDM pick up their pace as they should do, the team should be able to play near .600 ball the rest of the way. I doubt you'll see that from the other Wild Card contenders. Plus, with JDM not having a stellar year, the odds that he opts out after this season are less likely meaning that outside of Rick Porcello and the 1b and Brock Holt (and thankfully Nunez and Sandoval's contract), the team they're putting out on the field is virtually the same as last year's and this year's. We had the best case scenario outcome of that team in 2018 and we're having just about the worst case scenario outcome this season. I would think 2020 lands in between, so selling away guys that give the Red Sox a real strong chance to win next year make no sense. You can debate selling off Porcello, but if the Red Sox win the wild card game, they would need Porcello in the ALDS to have a shot at advancing. I think the Red Sox need to find a way to improve the pen without giving up too much (much easier said than done), hope Eovaldi comes back like he did last year and hope that guys like Betts, Benintendi, and JDM can pick up the pace, and then hope they get some production out of Moreland and Pearce going forward. I don't think those things are too tall of an order to allow them to be better than Cleveland, Oakland, and Texas, or even Tampa.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2019 8:47:30 GMT -5
Remember in gym class or field day when you did the obstacle course, and there was always one kid who would be in second or third place about 1/2 through and then start walking - not because he was tired, but because he was having a little tantrum that he wasn't winning?
I bring that up for no particular reason.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 27, 2019 9:03:47 GMT -5
Remember in gym class or field day when you did the obstacle course, and there was always one kid who would be in second or third place about 1/2 through and then start walking - not because he was tired, but because he was having a little tantrum that he wasn't winning? I bring that up for no particular reason. I'm assuming that's a shot at me? Don't really get the analogy considering they're all but out of the division and currently out of the playoffs, granted, by 1 game, but they're 2.5 behind Tampa who had an awful month, 1 behind Cleveland for WC2, tied with the Rangers and 1 over Oakland. It's not like they're back in the driver's seat by any means and the early struggles doomed their divisional hopes which means they're at best a 1-game play in. They'd also have a Wild Card spot on lockdown if they didn't stumble as hard as they did out of the gate. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have a great record in playing against teams everyone else has a great record against. This wasn't even meant to be a shit on the Red Sox thread. It was meant to primarily keep track of the uphill battle they needed to fight in order to win the division and now what it's going to take to get into the playoffs, because unlike popular opinion, April and May games matter. I'm updating after every few series. It's not my fault they can't string together more than 2 series victories in a row. I thought I made a very detailed, and somewhat encouraging post, after the Twins series saying that Tampa has a difficult schedule and they're back within reach.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 27, 2019 17:43:22 GMT -5
Sox are 2 games back of the Rays. I bet they catch them by the end of the season. As for selling, what would you sell? It isn’t just this year, but next as well. This team dominated last year, is off this year, but could dominate with tweaks next year. Why scrap it? The Sox would sell Mookie, Porcello, and JDM, but I agree, way too early to sell. The 2 wildcards make it impossible for teams to sell nowadays. It would be way easier to sell if the Sox are 4+ games out of the 2nd wildcard by the end of July.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 27, 2019 17:49:04 GMT -5
Sox are 2 games back of the Rays. I bet they catch them by the end of the season. As for selling, what would you sell? It isn’t just this year, but next as well. This team dominated last year, is off this year, but could dominate with tweaks next year. Why scrap it? The Sox would sell Mookie, Porcello, and JDM, but I agree, way too early to sell. The 2 wildcards make it impossible for teams to sell nowadays. The Rays have really stumbled as of late and their extremely tough schedule makes it possible to catch them now. Then again, you have Texas who have been playing great and the Indians who have been winning despite losing their top 3 staters and are set to get 1 back. Oakland is still in the mix as well as you're currently sitting 0.5 behind Cleveland, 1.5 behind Texas and currently 2.0 behind Tampa, with a game in progress. Oakland is only 0.5 games behind you. For those who want to play for the Wild Card, my deadline for this team is to see how the Red Sox perform during their 14 game slug fest with the Rays and Yankees.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 30, 2019 12:36:14 GMT -5
The clock has just about struck midnight with this team.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jun 30, 2019 12:42:48 GMT -5
The division is pretty much over
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 30, 2019 13:37:48 GMT -5
I wonder what we can get for JBJ
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