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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 27, 2019 22:21:25 GMT -5
Between guys like Chatham, Fitzgerald, Duran, and a couple more that I'm surely forgetting, there's been a lot of talk about pushing prospects that are performing well up a level to test and develop them even further. There has been an equal amount of pushback from Chris and others that it's too early in the season to push them and that DD would be wise to be patient despite his aggressive history, which I agree with. It's been dispersed between a bunch of different threads so I wanted to bring it together to further the discussion of it.
I know context is important for every prospect's case, but are there general guidelines for things the team does/should look for before they decide to promote someone? I know facing teams more than once is a big factor because it gives the other team time to figure things out, but I want to know if there are more.
And then finally, on a more Sox related note, are there specific things that the three prospects I mentioned in the intro, but also any top prospect people see fit, that the organization needs to see before considering a promotion? I'm talking about on-field things, like Dalbec striking out less or something of that ilk.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2019 11:50:57 GMT -5
There was a post, probably back on the old forum, in which I figured out that in almost all cases, a true prospect hitter at even a roughly age-appropriate level got at least 250-300 plate appearances at a level before receiving a promotion, and that was if they were red scorching hot during that whole time. It was usually more like 350-400. (This can be combined over seasons, not just in that season.) So like, midseason, if we want to extrapolate that out to whatever the equivalent is for pitchers, if the player starts a new level on opening day.
The guys who get promoted around May 1, are guys who are either given very conservative assignments (e.g., early-round college arms from the previous draft who used to go to Greenville for a month to get used to pitching every 5 days and destroy the Sally - Barnes comes to mindx) or are repeating the level and have great success there (Alex Scherff is a candidate for a May 1 promotion, imo, as he fits this archetype perfectly).
There are definitely development goals for each player, and they're not always scoutable from the box score. A pitcher might be shoving, but they might need to work on a third pitch, or better command, that isn't showing up in the stats. A hitter might need to work through starting to get shifted, or pitched a different way. Bryan Mata comes to mind - he is shoving right now and repeating a level, but in addition to being extremely young, he's also learning a new pitch, a cutter/slider, so it would make sense to give him some time to get more comfortable with it before promoting him to Portland. (Of course, he also sort of fits the repeat archetype discussed above, so they may feel comfortable moving him up quickly. June 1 makes more sense to me than May 1 for him, though.)
And you always want a player to see teams multiple times, because those teams will make adjustments that a team seeing the player for the first time won't make. For example, Ryan Fitzgerald was facing Frederick for the second time this season when I saw him, and they were shifting him to good success. The next series, Potomac, who hadn't faced him yet, did not shift him. This is a pretty obvious example, but less obvious ones would be pitching a batter to a hole in his swing, or laying off a pitcher's best pitch (say, a changeup) to attack a less effective one (say a mediocre fastball he doesn't command well). A very important part of development is for that player to then adjust to these adjustments, and you don't get to do that if you keep promoting a guy every month.
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Post by soxin8 on Apr 29, 2019 14:53:17 GMT -5
Dominating the Sally at 24 years old, Demchak seems like a candidate to move up in the near future.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 29, 2019 20:14:12 GMT -5
Dominating the Sally at 24 years old, Demchak seems like a candidate to move up in the near future. Lol he'd already been promoted earlier in the day when you posted this.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 29, 2019 22:51:22 GMT -5
There was a post, probably back on the old forum, in which I figured out that in almost all cases, a true prospect hitter at even a roughly age-appropriate level got at least 250-300 plate appearances at a level before receiving a promotion, and that was if they were red scorching hot during that whole time. It was usually more like 350-400. (This can be combined over seasons, not just in that season.) So like, midseason, if we want to extrapolate that out to whatever the equivalent is for pitchers, if the player starts a new level on opening day. The guys who get promoted around May 1, are guys who are either given very conservative assignments (e.g., early-round college arms from the previous draft who used to go to Greenville for a month to get used to pitching every 5 days and destroy the Sally - Barnes comes to mindx) or are repeating the level and have great success there (Alex Scherff is a candidate for a May 1 promotion, imo, as he fits this archetype perfectly). There are definitely development goals for each player, and they're not always scoutable from the box score. A pitcher might be shoving, but they might need to work on a third pitch, or better command, that isn't showing up in the stats. A hitter might need to work through starting to get shifted, or pitched a different way. Bryan Mata comes to mind - he is shoving right now and repeating a level, but in addition to being extremely young, he's also learning a new pitch, a cutter/slider, so it would make sense to give him some time to get more comfortable with it before promoting him to Portland. (Of course, he also sort of fits the repeat archetype discussed above, so they may feel comfortable moving him up quickly. June 1 makes more sense to me than May 1 for him, though.) And you always want a player to see teams multiple times, because those teams will make adjustments that a team seeing the player for the first time won't make. For example, Ryan Fitzgerald was facing Frederick for the second time this season when I saw him, and they were shifting him to good success. The next series, Potomac, who hadn't faced him yet, did not shift him. This is a pretty obvious example, but less obvious ones would be pitching a batter to a hole in his swing, or laying off a pitcher's best pitch (say, a changeup) to attack a less effective one (say a mediocre fastball he doesn't command well). A very important part of development is for that player to then adjust to these adjustments, and you don't get to do that if you keep promoting a guy every month. Terrific discussion Chris, I think this is dead-on, particularly with guys like Mata and Scherff. Duran, I think, is the most interesting case in that out of a 2nd-tier D1 program/7th rounder he was probably started appropriately conservatively, especially with the position change. His BABIP sugggests regression in Salem, but it’s also (well) over .400 for his career, hinting that he may regress less than might be expected otherwise. His peripherals in Salem (much better walk rate but slightly increased K rate, moderate IsoP that’s still pretty solid) seem to indicate that he’s awaiting a league adjustment, but he’s still killing it. Reminds me of Portland Mookie...probably ready but they’ll wait til he cools off then comes back adjusting...as you say, 250 PA or so. FWIW, Ellsbury started in high A and got to AA after about a half-season (those 250 PA), putting up substantially less impressive numbers than Duran has (Ells jumped quickly the next year to AAA after destroying AA for about 70 PA). Idk how they approach Duran...he’s going to be fascinating to watch ascend. I could see him moving June 1 or so and *maybe* again, depending on his AA stint. Pretty rare to see a 3-level year but he’s the one player in the system I could see doing it right now. I’ve never seen any player in the system put up a BABIP like he has for as long as he has.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 29, 2019 23:26:52 GMT -5
I’ve never seen any player in the system put up a BABIP like he has for as long as he has. Mookie Betts. He hit over .400 for a month in AA in 2014.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 29, 2019 23:46:31 GMT -5
I’ve never seen any player in the system put up a BABIP like he has for as long as he has. Mookie Betts. He hit over .400 for a month in AA in 2014. I’m talking BABIP, not BA. That was one month (it was a scorching month, to be sure) and he did have a .400 BA. But Mookie never posted a BABIP over .400 in any stint at any level, maxing out around .380 I think when he was in Portland. Duran has a BABIP for his *career* of something like .440, over a span of 400 PAs. It borders on absurd, and I’m sure it’s an oppo approach/LD/speed/crappy MILB fielding combo, but still.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 30, 2019 0:29:55 GMT -5
Like, think of it this way: Derek Jeter was the BABIP king, with a career .350 mark, largely as a product of being a LD-oppo hitter. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=826&position=SS. He hit a TON of singles to RF, and was helped by good speed especially early in his career (in ‘98-‘00, he had BABIPs of .375, .396, .386; his BAs were .324, .349, .339). He didn’t hit a lot of HR (19,24,15), and his IsoP in those years was over .200 only once. He was much closer to .150 usually (career .130). But he got on base a LOT. Duran has better speed but obviously less pop (although he’s approaching that .150 IsoP this year, along with a 10% BB rate). Jeter had a couple other years at .391 and .379. But a true-talent .330+ BABIP is pretty unusual. If Duran loses *100* points off his BABIP in MLB, he’ll still be unusual. He’s also likely to benefit from Fenway as a LH-LD oppo hitter, with regards to BABIP, especially if he gains a little strength and elevates a little more. He’s looking like an incredible find in rd7. He compares favorably right now to Ellsbury at a similar age (they were both born in Sept); Ellsbury was also 22 in high-A, going .299/.379/.418 with 25 SB, a 0.118 IsoP, an 8.9% BB rate/10% K rate, and 0.324 BABIP. Ellsbury was a .330 BABIP hitter in the minors and basically the same with the Sox in MLB. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OFAll of which is to say, what Duran is doing is rare, and it bodes well for his future, particularly if he can play solid CF defense. His is a skill set that translates well. The best comp I can come up with in terms of speed-approach—>BABIP results is Billy Hamilton www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10199&position=OF, who was routinely high-300s (.404 with a .323 BA in high-A) before seeing the BABIP drop a ton to league-average in MLB (0.305). I’m sure a lot of that has to do with markedly better fielding/routes/arms in MLB, eliminating a lot of “cheapies.” But Duran is stronger than Hamilton (IsoP to this point about 30-40 points higher) and arguably a better hitter at similar career stages (career BA roughly 50 points higher, although Hamilton was drafted out of HS and was a year younger in high-A). Hamilton was still a very useful player for several years. FG puts a 45 on Duran’s future game power (55 raw), and if he gets there, I think he’s gonna remind a lot of people of Ellsbury, only with more pop.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 30, 2019 2:16:00 GMT -5
Mookie Betts. He hit over .400 for a month in AA in 2014. I’m talking BABIP, not BA. That was one month (it was a scorching month, to be sure) and he did have a .400 BA. But Mookie never posted a BABIP over .400 in any stint at any level, maxing out around .380 I think when he was in Portland. Duran has a BABIP for his *career* of something like .440, over a span of 400 PAs. It borders on absurd, and I’m sure it’s an oppo approach/LD/speed/crappy MILB fielding combo, but still. I would have thought for sure his BaBip was over .400 if his average was. Man, Mookie was exciting 5 years ago. You'll never see a rise like him ever again.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2019 7:06:13 GMT -5
FWIW, Ellsbury started in high A and got to AA after about a half-season (those 250 PA), putting up substantially less impressive numbers than Duran has (Ells jumped quickly the next year to AAA after destroying AA for about 70 PA). FYI, just to make sure I'm being clear (quite possible telson already gets this) the 250 is over the course of a player's time at the level. Ellsbury had 225 PA at AA in 2006, then was a candidate for a quick, May 4 promotion after 83 in 2007. FWIW, I think we even had him pegged for Pawtucket to start that season and thought that Portland was unnecessarily conservative given that he'd done well in '06 there (.308/.387/.434, somehow just 16 of 24 on SB), but he responded appropriately in the SSS in 2007 (.452/.518/.644).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2019 7:08:58 GMT -5
I’m talking BABIP, not BA. That was one month (it was a scorching month, to be sure) and he did have a .400 BA. But Mookie never posted a BABIP over .400 in any stint at any level, maxing out around .380 I think when he was in Portland. Duran has a BABIP for his *career* of something like .440, over a span of 400 PAs. It borders on absurd, and I’m sure it’s an oppo approach/LD/speed/crappy MILB fielding combo, but still. I would have thought for sure his BaBip was over .400 if his average was. Man, Mookie was exciting 5 years ago. You'll never see a rise like him ever again. Well, he did have a BABIP of .430 for the month of April that you're talking about, but at any rate, I think Telson is talking about having a BABIP for as long as Duran has meaning his whole career. He's been over .400 since he signed, which is kind of nuts and, I presume, fueled by low-level defenses not being able to handle his speed: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=680776
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 30, 2019 7:48:53 GMT -5
Really like how his walk rate has ticked up as well.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 30, 2019 9:57:30 GMT -5
Really like how his walk rate has ticked up as well. Too SSS to draw conclusions. 3 of his 10 walks came 2 games ago.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 30, 2019 11:05:59 GMT -5
Does BABIP apply to minor league ball the same way it does to mlb? I ask because one explanation of an extremely high babip in Salem is that he's too good for the particular league he's in. In general, yes. Now, a player with excellent bat control skills could probably maintain a higher BABIP in High-A because of the weaker defenses, especially a fast left-handed batter who is going to beat out a few more infield hits every month. But you're probably looking more like .380-.430 range, not up around .500. But even then I'll note that "too good for the particular league he's in" might not be the right measure here. If someone (and Duran may well fit this description) has the skills that translate to better statistics at a level, that's not necessarily the same as meeting a developmental goal. There's nothing wrong with a letting him hit .370 or something at a level while he's working on the rest of his skills. You can be the best player at a level but still be at the right developmental level. "Too good for the level" generally only applies when a player who has a very specific skill that is too advanced for the level that it could reinforce bad habits of relying on that skill. For example, someone with an overly passive approach at the plate might be better served by a promotion to see pitchers who can throw more secondary pitches for strikes. Another example might be a pitcher whose secondary pitchers are ahead of his fastball who is able to "pitch backwards" against lower-level minor leaguers, an approach that won't work climbing the ladder. For Duran, a player who is hitting the ball to the opposite field a lot, I think it's particularly important to see how pitchers and defenders adjust to him. If Duran is able to roll with the adjustments without missing a beat, and he keeps hitting .400? That's ideal! But it certainly doesn't mean they kept him in the Carolina League too long.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 30, 2019 21:45:34 GMT -5
I would have thought for sure his BaBip was over .400 if his average was. Man, Mookie was exciting 5 years ago. You'll never see a rise like him ever again. Well, he did have a BABIP of .430 for the month of April that you're talking about, but at any rate, I think Telson is talking about having a BABIP for as long as Duran has meaning his whole career. He's been over .400 since he signed, which is kind of nuts and, I presume, fueled by low-level defenses not being able to handle his speed: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=680776Yeah, basically. Billy Hamilton had similarly ridiculous BABIPs his first few seasons, (.370-.400), but that dropped quickly. Duran’s are even higher, I think just because he’s a stronger, better hitter (including the oppo-heavy approach, which tends to boost BABIP), but still gets a huge speed benefit from poor range, routes, arms, etc. My curiosity is this: Ellsbury as a LHB with similar speed was putting up .330 BABIPs in MiLB, and did the same in MLB for a while. So what’s Duran’s true talent? Is he more Ells or Hamilton?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 1, 2019 2:36:11 GMT -5
Well, he did have a BABIP of .430 for the month of April that you're talking about, but at any rate, I think Telson is talking about having a BABIP for as long as Duran has meaning his whole career. He's been over .400 since he signed, which is kind of nuts and, I presume, fueled by low-level defenses not being able to handle his speed: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=680776Yeah, basically. Billy Hamilton had similarly ridiculous BABIPs his first few seasons, (.370-.400), but that dropped quickly. Duran’s are even higher, I think just because he’s a stronger, better hitter (including the oppo-heavy approach, which tends to boost BABIP), but still gets a huge speed benefit from poor range, routes, arms, etc. My curiosity is this: Ellsbury as a LHB with similar speed was putting up .330 BABIPs in MiLB, and did the same in MLB for a while. So what’s Duran’s true talent? Is he more Ells or Hamilton? For me, Brett Gardner with more speed. (before he got old). Excuse the blasphemy.
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Post by telson13 on May 1, 2019 22:30:33 GMT -5
Yeah, basically. Billy Hamilton had similarly ridiculous BABIPs his first few seasons, (.370-.400), but that dropped quickly. Duran’s are even higher, I think just because he’s a stronger, better hitter (including the oppo-heavy approach, which tends to boost BABIP), but still gets a huge speed benefit from poor range, routes, arms, etc. My curiosity is this: Ellsbury as a LHB with similar speed was putting up .330 BABIPs in MiLB, and did the same in MLB for a while. So what’s Duran’s true talent? Is he more Ells or Hamilton? For me, Brett Gardner with more speed. (before he got old). Excuse the blasphemy. I’ve seen that comp elsewhere, too. If it’s true it’s great for the Sox, because Gardner’s been a good to very good player for NY. Duran has more raw and game power though, at similar age (isoP is about 40-50 points higher). Probably more speed, too, although Gardner was a very good base stealer. Gardner was more all-fields coming up, while Duran definitely likes shooting the ball to the L (which is perfect for Fenway), but he had some high BABIPs too (.414 in high A his first season, but mid-300s later). Gardner was always a high-OBP guy though with an excellent walk rate, so he seems to have the edge there. Injury issues sapped Gardner a bit, so let’s hope Duran can stay on the field. Definitely see the similarities, though. If Duran starts putting up 5-6 WAR seasons, I’ll be ecstatic. Really wanna see the BABIP and BB/K rates in AA, because right now he looks like the better hitter overall at a similar age, especially if the walk rate he’s sporting now holds up. If his results continue, even with reasonable regression, I’d imagine he’ll make some top-100 appearances come mid-season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 2, 2019 0:07:23 GMT -5
I actually saw the Gardner comp someplace (I don't remember where) and the more I watched, the more I could see it. It's the all fields approach, both, as hitters, hit the ball where it's pitched. When he goes opposite it's because the pitch is on the outside portion of the zone, center/middle and pull inside.
I'm not expecting the walk or strikeout rates to change much, he pretty much swings at anything he thinks he can get a bat on (maybe 30 AB sample size watched caveat). A lot of his swing and miss is on low inside pitches but I'm not worried because of the results when he gets the bat on the ball. It's like when a power hitter strikes out a lot, there's less concern but in his case, it's BABIP.
It's interesting that the announcer uses the word 'placed' quite often, like 'well placed ground ball' or 'perfectly placed line drive'. I think she's got it, she gets it. That has been my impression all along which is also why somewhere along the line I used Tony Gwynn as the BABIP example, that was Gwynn's recipe, hit them where they ain't. The majority of his high BABIP is from that, not his speed nor minor league defenses. They help of course but that's not it.
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Post by James Dunne on May 9, 2019 11:01:04 GMT -5
So to bump this thread from last week: As Hatfield said above, I do think we're starting to get into the part of the season where you might consider a promotion for a player who is repeating a level and/or was placed conservatively. For example, in 2017, there was a chain promotion the second week in May, where Jamie Callahan went up to Pawtucket, Travis Lakins to Portland, and Shaun Anderson to Salem. Lakins had started the season repeating High A after a mediocre 2016, Anderson was giving a cautious placement after struggling in '16 after signing. (Callahan was just straight-up dominant in his intro to Portland.) Same type of thing in 2015 when Ty Buttrey was promoted to Salem on 5/1 and then Jonathan Aro, Joe Gunkel, and Chandler Shepherd all went up one level on 5/15.
With that in mind, I guess I'd keep an eye on Joan Martinez: I tweeted about him earlier - he's repeating Salem after he was given a pretty aggressive placement there last year. He probably should've been in Greenville. He struggled badly with his control early last year, seemed to right the ship in the second half, but was more okay than good. This year he's been pretty dominant, with a 38.3% K rate and only six walks through 19 1/3. He's probably the one guy in the system who I'm pretty confident in saying it would make sense to promote. It's possible he's working on something specific and the timing isn't right, but failing that, I think he's where he should be performance-wise to move up.
There are also a few Greenville guys who were placed slightly conservatively, I think: Scherff, Ward, Machamer, and Granberg were all guys I wouldn't have been surprised by a Salem placement. Granberg in particular has been playing well lately. Scherff hasn't been dominant, but he's repeating the level and was generally pretty solid there last year after May 1 or so, with the time missed to injury a huge caveat there. Ward, through five innings today, has 42 Ks and a 3.09 ERA in 35 innings. He seems to profile as the type of relatively polished college arm who is always on the borderline as far as where to start him.
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