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5/2-5/5 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
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Post by Don Caballero on May 5, 2019 16:45:26 GMT -5
Nice! Should have been a sweep but I'll take this anyway.
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Post by manfred on May 5, 2019 16:46:01 GMT -5
Brewer may need to do a bit more to earn my trust.
Great couple of days, though.
Edit: AND.... Sox only a couple back in the Wild Card chase.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 5, 2019 18:05:29 GMT -5
Swihart: homerun, single, walk. 2-3.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 5, 2019 21:34:45 GMT -5
Excellent game today with help from the White Sox defense in the 8th inning. They're closing in on .500 finally although I'm not really expecting big things from Josh Smith to get the Sox to .500
The ChiSox have bad pitching and the Red Sox did a great job exploiting that in the final 3 games. If they can get JBJ and Pearce going that lineup could be quite fearsome.
It was nice seeing Xander clear the bases. He did a lot of that last season.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2019 23:01:19 GMT -5
It's a nice theory, but the most important aspect of prospects is that they can either be traded or league minimum replacements for departing free agents or depth in case of injuries to boost the team when needed. Only Chavis fits that description of all of those players. Everyone else is counted on as a major part of the team and thus cannot push the team higher like Chavis is now. I wonder how long it takes for Chavis to start affecting the Red Sox' decision on a possible JDM opt-out. He could also replace both Moreland and Pearce next year. So average prospects are good and elite prospects are bad? Yeah, that's what I said. Imagine how much better the Red Sox could get in the immediate future if they had a Mookie Betts in AAA. That's what I'm talking about. But, they already have him in the majors and are counting on his performance for $20 million per season. Prospects are about future improvement, either directly or through a trade.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 5, 2019 23:05:18 GMT -5
For the hell of it - this vs last year after 35 games - 17-18 vs 25-10
Mookie - .297 vs .360 Benni - .295 vs .244 JDM - .331 vs .346 Xander - .264 vs .316 Raffi - .306 vs .252 JBJ - .155 vs .173 Nunez - .176 vs .238 CVaz - .253 vs .196 Hanley - .295 vs Moreland - .216 and we have Chavis now!
Benni and Raffi and CVaz off to much better starts Mookie and Xander a bit worse this year, but not appreciably JDM just doing JDM things consistently JBJ consistently bad starts both years Nunez - meh Hanley hadn't hit the skids yet, Moreland giving great production
Not a whole huge difference....now, the starting pitching is another story (but that is finally getting better)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 5, 2019 23:36:15 GMT -5
For the hell of it - this vs last year after 35 games - 17-18 vs 25-10 Mookie - .297 vs .360 Benni - .295 vs .244 JDM - .331 vs .346 Xander - .264 vs .316 Raffi - .306 vs .252 JBJ - .155 vs .173 Nunez - .176 vs .238 CVaz - .253 vs .196 Hanley - .295 vs Moreland - .216 and we have Chavis now! Benni and Raffi and CVaz off to much better starts Mookie and Xander a bit worse this year, but not appreciably JDM just doing JDM things consistently JBJ consistently bad starts both years Nunez - meh Hanley hadn't hit the skids yet, Moreland giving great production Not a whole huge difference....now, the starting pitching is another story (but that is finally getting better)Sale allowed a .370 xwOBA to 123 BFP through the first 5 innings of his previous start. Subsequently, .213 to 33 hitters. That would easily lead MLB starting pitchers (Glasnow leads with .231).
Porcello allowed a .378 over his first 5 starts ... I'll have his figure for the last two tomorrow, but it's way better, of course.
E-Rod allowed a .369 in his first two starts but is .268 since then. That would rank 13th among 139 starters (pitchers with 100 BFP). IOW, borderline ace. However, with my adjustments, he'd rank 5th.
Price allowed a .370 in his first start and is .291 since then. That would rank 27th, which is solid #2 on a contender.
Eovaldi allowed .439 over his first 3 starts but .185 in the one before he went on the IL.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 6, 2019 0:42:35 GMT -5
So average prospects are good and elite prospects are bad? Yeah, that's what I said. Imagine how much better the Red Sox could get in the immediate future if they had a Mookie Betts in AAA. That's what I'm talking about. But, they already have him in the majors and are counting on his performance for $20 million per season. Prospects are about future improvement, either directly or through a trade. I always thought the farm system was to help the major league team in many different ways. Not just future improvements. Like we don't need improvements, we just need some cheap guys to replace guys like Moreland, Pearce, Holy, Bradley, etc as we start to pay our star players. They don't need to be better, heck they could be worse. They just need to be cheap and playable. Like if Shawaryn can be a 4/5 he's a good replacement for Procello even if he's not close to as good. Our young core allows you that, because you can expect the young guys to get better for years and years. You don't need a top farm system full of studs year in and year out. Just a system that provided depth and fills holes when you need to. Our young core gives us time and our ability to pay guys means you don't just lose them in 6 years. Like I've been saying for a few years now our system isn't that bad. Then again I've been higher on Chavis than most. The big worry is when the young core ages making big money, yet that is years away. I love being greedy but wanting another young Betts given our talent level is a little much. I'm more than happy with Chavis, because we already have Betts.
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2019 0:59:05 GMT -5
For the hell of it - this vs last year after 35 games - 17-18 vs 25-10 Mookie - .297 vs .360 Benni - .295 vs .244 JDM - .331 vs .346 Xander - .264 vs .316 Raffi - .306 vs .252 JBJ - .155 vs .173 Nunez - .176 vs .238 CVaz - .253 vs .196 Hanley - .295 vs Moreland - .216 and we have Chavis now! Benni and Raffi and CVaz off to much better starts Mookie and Xander a bit worse this year, but not appreciably JDM just doing JDM things consistently JBJ consistently bad starts both years Nunez - meh Hanley hadn't hit the skids yet, Moreland giving great production Not a whole huge difference....now, the starting pitching is another story (but that is finally getting better)Sale allowed a .370 xwOBA to 123 BFP through the first 5 innings of his previous start. Subsequently, .213 to 33 hitters. That would easily lead MLB starting pitchers (Glasnow leads with .231).
Porcello allowed a .378 over his first 5 starts ... I'll have his figure for the last two tomorrow, but it's way better, of course.
E-Rod allowed a .369 in his first two starts but is .268 since then. That would rank 13th among 139 starters (pitchers with 100 BFP). IOW, borderline ace. However, with my adjustments, he'd rank 5th.
Price allowed a .370 in his first start and is .291 since then. That would rank 27th, which is solid #2 on a contender.
Eovaldi allowed .439 over his first 3 starts but .185 in the one before he went on the IL.
I’m not worried about the offense at all. We’re seeing some somewhat-expected improvement from Devers and really, Beni (though I’m hoping his power shows up more frequently). JBJ is disappointing, but I’m still hopeful on that front. Bogey’s about what I think we can expect, although he could and probably will be a bit better. Vazquez has been a nice surprise, and I think he’s capable of keeping it up in large part. His whole game, in fact, looks better. I have very little concern re: production from JDM (light on the power, but otherwise exactly where they need him) and Mookie (whose early meatball-ignoring ways seem to be correcting nicely). And Chavis has been a revelation, basically doing just what he’s done in the minors the last two years, only with double the walk rate. It’s been cool and rainy pretty much every day for a month and a half, so things’ll pick up soon. The bullpen is better-than-expected. Walden and Workman have been terrific, aided by some smart coaching advice (Walden’s 4FB usage and Workman pitching backwards off the CB). Barnes has pretty clearly taken yet another developmental step. I’m concerned with Brasier, whose command has belied results so far, but it doesn’t seem to be a health thing so I think he’ll come around. I love the Brewer pickup, and despite some struggles I think he becomes a keeper. The pure stuff is terrific, and what I’ve seen are some incremental steps forward. Thornburg, at least, looks healthy and has excellent stuff, just...well, that outing the other day is the perfect microcosm. His command isn’t back, and he’s getting shelled making middle-middle mistakes. But too soon to give up just yet. Hembree etc. have been predictably passable as useful depth. I’m *very* happy to see Sale pitching better with good (if not peak) velo and location. Price has been very solid, though I’m hoping he’s got another gear. Porcello and Rodriguez have rebounded from some nasty struggles; as Eric notes, Rodriguez in particular looks very good lately. Probably two months before Eovaldi comes back, so we’ll see about Josh Smith; maybe Shawaryn gets a shot? It genuinely looks like the early-season struggles actually *were* from the ST approach. So I’m particularly bullish on the rotation moving forward, at least relative to what we’ve seen. The talent’s been there all along. Looks like Chavis provides some spark, maybe a little confidence and enthusiasm? But they’ve been much more of what we’d all hoped since he arrived. Time to put all that bad April baseball in the closet and lock it away forever. THIS iteration is your 2019 Red Sox, folks.
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2019 1:31:54 GMT -5
Yeah, that's what I said. Imagine how much better the Red Sox could get in the immediate future if they had a Mookie Betts in AAA. That's what I'm talking about. But, they already have him in the majors and are counting on his performance for $20 million per season. Prospects are about future improvement, either directly or through a trade. I always thought the farm system was to help the major league team in many different ways. Not just future improvements. Like we don't need improvements, we just need some cheap guys to replace guys like Moreland, Pearce, Holy, Bradley, etc as we start to pay our star players. They don't need to be better, heck they could be worse. They just need to be cheap and playable. Like if Shawaryn can be a 4/5 he's a good replacement for Procello even if he's not close to as good. Our young core allows you that, because you can expect the young guys to get better for years and years. You don't need a top farm system full of studs year in and year out. Just a system that provided depth and fills holes when you need to. Our young core gives us time and our ability to pay guys means you don't just lose them in 6 years. Like I've been saying for a few years now our system isn't that bad. Then again I've been higher on Chavis than most. The big worry is when the young core ages making big money, yet that is years away. I love being greedy but wanting another young Betts given our talent level is a little much. I'm more than happy with Chavis, because we already have Betts. Yup. They’re perfectly set up to do a sort of stars-and-scrubs team, because they have a bunch of stars (and a couple guys being paid like them), some pretty good depth, and some more-or-less fungible spots like Moreland/Pearce/80% of the bullpen, etc. Chavis has been awesome, and even if he’s roughly what his projections say for the rest of the year (.250/.320/.450 or so), that’s plenty of production for essentially zero cost. Their “toss it at the wall and see what sticks” approach to the bullpen seems to have yielded a few finds as well. If they can save $5M here, $7.5M there, it adds up. Their thin system might be “thin” because it doesn’t have a bunch of high-end guys, but there’s plenty of value there. Shawaryn is a great example. He’s been solid, not terrific. But at a $19M savings vs Porcello, or $17M vs Eovaldi, that’s huge. Maybe he only puts up 5th-starter (8-8, 4.75 in 160 innings or so?) numbers, and 1 WAR, but those $ buy you extensions for the core and time to develop Darwinzon or Mata. Big-time prospects are great, but the 40-45 FV guys are important, too. Because sometimes, they turn into Chavis, and fill a specific *need*. Or they’ve been underrated, like Duran, and start looking like possible 55-60 FV guys, and you can start genuinely considering their arrival time and whether you want to extend a player for big money/years. Or, like Walden, they unlock something, and keep you from having to trade from your system (and weaken it further) for a $10-12M bullpen arm. The Sox have a perfect situation for stars-n-scrubs: lots of (often homegrown) stars still in their prime, many locked up for years, and “scrubs” who are on short deals or are homegrown young players with upside. If you’ve got a bunch of stars already, you just need to lock them up. And a team can do that if their scrubs are largely making near-to-league minimum. It’s not so hard to plug in prospects to fill spots for 1-2 WAR. And every once in a while, one turns out to be a star. The way the team’s constructed right now, they don’t “need” more stars, they just need the ones they have to produce like it, and for their minor-league 40-50 FV guys to play like 40-50 value guys. The Sox have had lots of position-player development success, so I think their system is a little stronger than CW does. They’re gonna polish some gems. And with the roster as constructed, they’ve got time to develop the stars they *will need* once the core ages a bit and salaries creep up.
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2019 7:19:33 GMT -5
Yeah, that's what I said. Imagine how much better the Red Sox could get in the immediate future if they had a Mookie Betts in AAA. That's what I'm talking about. But, they already have him in the majors and are counting on his performance for $20 million per season. Prospects are about future improvement, either directly or through a trade. I always thought the farm system was to help the major league team in many different ways. Not just future improvements. Like we don't need improvements, we just need some cheap guys to replace guys like Moreland, Pearce, Holy, Bradley, etc as we start to pay our star players. They don't need to be better, heck they could be worse. They just need to be cheap and playable. Like if Shawaryn can be a 4/5 he's a good replacement for Procello even if he's not close to as good. Our young core allows you that, because you can expect the young guys to get better for years and years. You don't need a top farm system full of studs year in and year out. Just a system that provided depth and fills holes when you need to. Our young core gives us time and our ability to pay guys means you don't just lose them in 6 years. Like I've been saying for a few years now our system isn't that bad. Then again I've been higher on Chavis than most. The big worry is when the young core ages making big money, yet that is years away. I love being greedy but wanting another young Betts given our talent level is a little much. I'm more than happy with Chavis, because we already have Betts. So we're clear, the only thing I said was that only Chavis was a prospect this year. Everyone else mentioned in the post I replied to was not a prospect except for him. The rest were already part of the team so they cannot improve the team except through exceeding their expectations. Chavis meanwhile was a huge unexpected boost, which is what prospects do for a team. He started the season as depth in case of emergency and was so good that he's now vital to the team. They weren't counting on him like the others. I said nothing about what quality the farm system is or should be. You especially cannot count Mookie and Xander as being just like prospects because of how much money they make, which takes away a lot of their excess value. The young core is a great thing to have, but the only issue I had was saying that we don't need prospects because of them. It's also going to be nice to get the prospect boost for the bullpen later this season instead of having to trade for them.
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Post by costpet on May 6, 2019 7:33:53 GMT -5
Pedy close to coming back. But, where? You can't take Chavis out of the lineup. He has to play somewhere. If not 2nd, then 1b I guess. I'm almost hoping Pedy decides he can't do it anymore and they make him a coach. They have to pay him through next year, so he's all set there. He would probably make a great manager some day. And a really good bench coach today.
Pierce is doing nothing this year, so maybe they DFA him to make room at 1st. Tough decision either way.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 6, 2019 7:50:48 GMT -5
Nunez says hello
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Post by manfred on May 6, 2019 8:50:50 GMT -5
I always thought the farm system was to help the major league team in many different ways. Not just future improvements. Like we don't need improvements, we just need some cheap guys to replace guys like Moreland, Pearce, Holy, Bradley, etc as we start to pay our star players. They don't need to be better, heck they could be worse. They just need to be cheap and playable. Like if Shawaryn can be a 4/5 he's a good replacement for Procello even if he's not close to as good. Our young core allows you that, because you can expect the young guys to get better for years and years. You don't need a top farm system full of studs year in and year out. Just a system that provided depth and fills holes when you need to. Our young core gives us time and our ability to pay guys means you don't just lose them in 6 years. Like I've been saying for a few years now our system isn't that bad. Then again I've been higher on Chavis than most. The big worry is when the young core ages making big money, yet that is years away. I love being greedy but wanting another young Betts given our talent level is a little much. I'm more than happy with Chavis, because we already have Betts. So we're clear, the only thing I said was that only Chavis was a prospect this year. Everyone else mentioned in the post I replied to was not a prospect except for him. The rest were already part of the team so they cannot improve the team except through exceeding their expectations. Chavis meanwhile was a huge unexpected boost, which is what prospects do for a team. He started the season as depth in case of emergency and was so good that he's now vital to the team. They weren't counting on him like the others. I said nothing about what quality the farm system is or should be. You especially cannot count Mookie and Xander as being just like prospects because of how much money they make, which takes away a lot of their excess value. The young core is a great thing to have, but the only issue I had was saying that we don't need prospects because of them. It's also going to be nice to get the prospect boost for the bullpen later this season instead of having to trade for them. Since I started this, I will respond by saying that what I meant was farm systems can be a bit cyclical, and the Sox have successfully cycled an impresssive number of guys into their lineup in the last few years, many of whom are ahead of traditional schedule. Thus, the dirth of upper-level prospects (who, frankly, would be running out of places to play). Salaries weren’t relevant to my point. I am not sure about the lack of depth, either. We’ve already seen Hernandez, Lin, etc. fill gaps. Anyway... I was perhaps more optimistic than people like: the Sox may have fewer top prospects in the upper minors, but they have had an incredible run.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2019 10:27:26 GMT -5
Sale allowed a .370 xwOBA to 123 BFP through the first 5 innings of his previous start. Subsequently, .213 to 33 hitters. That would easily lead MLB starting pitchers (Glasnow leads with .231).
Porcello allowed a .378 over his first 5 starts ... I'll have his figure for the last two tomorrow, but it's way better, of course.
E-Rod allowed a .369 in his first two starts but is .268 since then. That would rank 13th among 139 starters (pitchers with 100 BFP). IOW, borderline ace. However, with my adjustments, he'd rank 5th.
Price allowed a .370 in his first start and is .291 since then. That would rank 27th, which is solid #2 on a contender.
Eovaldi allowed .439 over his first 3 starts but .185 in the one before he went on the IL.
.266. He won't keep that up, but they are his best start (by far) and his 3rd best.
Hmm ... His first 4 starts versus his last 3 show a huge split in both xwOBA and karma (xwOBA vs wOBA; negative is bad) .
.384 +/- .031 xwOBA, -.089 +/- .047 karma .300 +/- .075 xwOBA, +.061 +/- .011 karma
Karma over his 7 starts: -.085, -.152, -.086, -.023, +.051, +.076, +.054. That's very unlikely to be random (p <.006). The team playing better defense has to be part of it, and maybe a a big part. He's actually had fewer balls hit to CF, so the actual difference is a tiny bit bigger.
A regression line through his 7 starts (r = .63, p = .13) puts him at an average .307 for his last 3, which is a good 3rd starter. As our 5th starter, that would be great. A one-tailed t-test of his first 4 starts versus his last 3 has p <.09, which suggests a fix is a better explanation than an improving trend, in which case he's been .300 and that's even more promising.
The correlation of his karma in a start to his quality has exactly the same significance as his correlation of quality to start #. It's not crazy to think that hitters have some skill to hit the ball to gaps (and hit grounders up the middle) when a pitcher is going poorly, so the idea that quality and karma might be correlated isn't crazy. It might not show up across pitchers but just within their starts, so to accurately investigate the relationship requires more work than I'm willing to do now ...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2019 10:48:45 GMT -5
It would make hugely more sense to talk Thornburg into accepting a Pawtucket assignment after he clears waivers on a DFA. You don't need 8 relievers when you have Barnes, Walden, Workman, Brasier, Velazquez, Brewer, and Hembree as your first 7. A fourth guy on the bench would be much more useful.
Assuming Chavis is playing most every day, you've got Moreland, Pedey, and Pearce platooning at the other spot, and Nunez as strictly a bench guy, where he's still useful. If Holt and Pedey are healthy together, then you can think about moving Nunez.
And having Chavis, Holt, Moreland, Pedroia, and Pearce to fill two positions is kind of crazy depth, especially if you have excellent analytics as to which guys can hit the opponent starter.
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Post by huskies15 on May 6, 2019 14:04:51 GMT -5
Plenty to be optimistic about and I even think JBJ will end the season with a reasonable stat line, but I've got to wonder how many "one of worst starts to a season" JBJ has in his back pocket at this point? Edit: I had to look it up, his career OPS in March/April is .606. It's crazy, if you took away the first month of the year he'd be around a .750 OPS guy. There's got to be a way to fix that, right?Considering his spring training prowess, maybe JBJ should just stay in XST every year till the calendar turns to May (kidding, sort of)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 6, 2019 15:11:28 GMT -5
It would make hugely more sense to talk Thornburg into accepting a Pawtucket assignment after he clears waivers on a DFA. You don't need 8 relievers when you have Barnes, Walden, Workman, Brasier, Velazquez, Brewer, and Hembree as your first 7. A fourth guy on the bench would be much more useful. Assuming Chavis is playing most every day, you've got Moreland, Pedey, and Pearce platooning at the other spot, and Nunez as strictly a bench guy, where he's still useful. If Holt and Pedey are healthy together, then you can think about moving Nunez. And having Chavis, Holt, Moreland, Pedroia, and Pearce to fill two positions is kind of crazy depth, especially if you have excellent analytics as to which guys can hit the opponent starter.
I doubt if Thornburg will clear waivers. He's only $1.75m, small risk for any team.
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2019 15:23:21 GMT -5
It would make hugely more sense to talk Thornburg into accepting a Pawtucket assignment after he clears waivers on a DFA. You don't need 8 relievers when you have Barnes, Walden, Workman, Brasier, Velazquez, Brewer, and Hembree as your first 7. A fourth guy on the bench would be much more useful. Assuming Chavis is playing most every day, you've got Moreland, Pedey, and Pearce platooning at the other spot, and Nunez as strictly a bench guy, where he's still useful. If Holt and Pedey are healthy together, then you can think about moving Nunez. And having Chavis, Holt, Moreland, Pedroia, and Pearce to fill two positions is kind of crazy depth, especially if you have excellent analytics as to which guys can hit the opponent starter.
I doubt if Thornburg will clear waivers. He's only $1.75m, small risk for any team. I’m with you re: Nunez. I really don’t see how he adds anything when they have Lin, and Marco is looking like he might be back soon. I get that it’s a risk play, because a lack of positional depth can hurt a team real quickly, but I have substantially more faith in Thornburg regaining his command (a quick look at pitch locations on savant show he’s not missing by much...for example, the 4FB clustering is about 4-6 inches low, and the spread is OK, not really “bad”) than in Nunez suddenly becoming passable defensively at any position, or putting up a wRC+ over 95.
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