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Post by James Dunne on May 3, 2019 14:42:10 GMT -5
So then you see the folly in extrapolating four weeks of a statistic to an entire season's worth of games to say "on pace for?"
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Post by cheers on May 3, 2019 14:45:06 GMT -5
So then you see the folly in extrapolating four weeks of a statistic to an entire season's worth of games to say "on pace for?" Clearly. I was just joining the stat cherry picking fray. All the cool kids were doing it... Sorry.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2019 14:49:30 GMT -5
Marcus Walden is on pace for 20 wins. Ya, but can you look me straight in the face while telling me that isn't a anomaly? Can you also look me in the face and tell me that you aren't concerned with Devers' defense given the trend?
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Post by James Dunne on May 3, 2019 14:52:04 GMT -5
Good point, only the statistics that meet our preconceptions are to be extrapolated.
Just whatever you do, please let us know if you're concerned with Devers' defense. I want to make sure we're clear.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2019 15:15:08 GMT -5
Good point, only the statistics that meet our preconceptions are to be extrapolated. Just whatever you do, please let us know if you're concerned with Devers' defense. I want to make sure we're clear. If Devers was a proven asset like JBJ on defense, I'd agree with you and I'd drop it completely. This isn't like a one off thing where I'm making stuff up. I haven't talked once about JBJ for instance. He's been through defensive slumps before.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 3, 2019 15:19:51 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 3, 2019 15:31:27 GMT -5
One thing for sure...it is impossible to know what to expect from this team as they are currently playing. Sale - that first stellar start, or another middling velocity hammered egg? Does the top of the order go to sleep and the bottom part awaken?
Certainly an interesting night - between this game and the Celtics. Gonna be a late one (X2, perhaps)...last night at the beach (back to reality tomorrow).
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Post by jimed14 on May 3, 2019 16:04:29 GMT -5
I concede that most of what you are saying is accurate jimed. However, when a guy is on pace to have almost 50 errors, you have to weight it more heavily than 10%. To be fair, he's on pace for 40 errors. I'm not even a big error guy either, but when it's happening at a astonishingly high rate like this, then everyone SHOULD take notice to it. It's a huge problem. Do you realize that an error is usually the same result as a ground ball that gets past someone with worse range than Devers? It's just not counted or noticed by anything other than advanced stats. Someone like Jeter may have made about 15 errors a year, but he let about 30 balls go for singles that he didn't get a glove on that someone with average to better range would have gotten. I'll take the guy with double the errors who gets to those 30 balls that Jeter wouldn't.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 3, 2019 16:08:58 GMT -5
There is direct correlation between opportunities and errors. If his opportunities decrease then his errors will also decrease. The opportunities being high should be looked at as a positive overall, but something to keep an eye on.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 3, 2019 17:48:02 GMT -5
Marcus Walden is on pace for 20 wins. Ya, but can you look me straight in the face while telling me that isn't a anomaly? Can you also look me in the face and tell me that you aren't concerned with Devers' defense given the trend? I mean I'm definitely not as concerned as you are.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2019 19:09:29 GMT -5
To be fair, he's on pace for 40 errors. I'm not even a big error guy either, but when it's happening at a astonishingly high rate like this, then everyone SHOULD take notice to it. It's a huge problem. Do you realize that an error is usually the same result as a ground ball that gets past someone with worse range than Devers? It's just not counted or noticed by anything other than advanced stats. Someone like Jeter may have made about 15 errors a year, but he let about 30 balls go for singles that he didn't get a glove on that someone with average to better range would have gotten. I'll take the guy with double the errors who gets to those 30 balls that Jeter wouldn't. Ugh. Derek Jeter? You mean the guy who should have retired 2 years earlier and should have been a DH in his 30's? That guy is the bar that we are setting for Devers? How about comparing him to the guy Cora keeps comparing him to in Beltre? The guy with positive DRS and positive range, even at a young age? Why do you need to pick one or the other? 3rd base is a pretty important position on the infield. Arguably the 4th or 5th most important position defensively. Errors doesn't always equal singles either (ground balls turned into a non out), they turn into doubles (sometimes) when the player goes on to to throw the ball to the dugout. The pitching staff is definitely feeling the effect of Devers' defense. Example, last night. Brasier strikes out the first batter. Gets a ground ball on the next play, play is not made. Brasier immediately goes into the stretch position and has to worry about keeping the tying run on first. Brasier goes on to throw two crap pitches with traffic on the bases. I'm not a big win probability guy, but it had to have dropped by 20-25 percent once that play wasn't made.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2019 19:18:59 GMT -5
Speaking of Devers!!! First homerun of the year!!
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
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Post by cutz on May 3, 2019 19:20:37 GMT -5
'Bout time!!
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 3, 2019 19:20:56 GMT -5
“A three run Johnson!” Eck is a national treasure.
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Post by Canseco on May 3, 2019 19:21:04 GMT -5
Devers hit that one like it owed him money. Marrrrrrone! What a bomb.
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Post by humanbeingbean on May 3, 2019 19:21:31 GMT -5
Tons of fastballs. Asking to be hit.
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 3, 2019 19:22:43 GMT -5
Devers hit that one like it owed him money. Marrrrrrone! What a bomb. Juiced ball.
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Post by telson13 on May 3, 2019 19:41:51 GMT -5
[ They need offense from more than Benny, Mookie and JDM, too. Can't let the offense off the hook for this loss, either. And Raffi's bad error. Yeah, not a great night offensively either. Too many of those so far. As far as Devers' defense goes, yes he has good range, and the tools to become a really good 3b, and the range is the most important factor because converting balls into outs that other 3b don't make is a big deal. However, you can't take routine ground balls and turn them into baserunners. It's a disaster waiting to happen. Now if it were a case that his range was the reason why he was picking up so many errors that would be one thing, but the eyeball test says that's not the case. He's had a lot of errors on plays that 3b should make. I can't act like it's all about his fielding pct and the range doesn't matter, but I also can't pretend that the errors aren't harmful either. Eventually, he'll grow out of it, but until then...we'll keep seeing those errors and unearned runs occur. This is dead-on, RSchamps. I was thinking about Rafi earlier today and you put exactly my thoughts up there. I think experience will improve the concentration/effort on routine plays, but it’s tough to watch especially with the consequences like last night. At least he hit a bomb tonight. Offensively, there’s been some good this year, and defensively, there’s been a lot, too. Unfortunately, there’s been a lot of “youthful” bad, too.
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Post by telson13 on May 3, 2019 19:52:16 GMT -5
The last few games it has seemed like CHavis has missed a lot of very hittable pitches. Plenty of middle middle pitches going by without any damage. His O-swing is a very good 26% and his O-cont is 51%, which isn’t very good (but not awful either). Not such a big deal because his selectivity has been very solid. He’s not swinging that much in general. His Z-Sw is 71% tho, pretty middle-road I think, but his Z-cont is BAD, at 66%. So you’re dead-on. His walk rate is high because he’s seeing lots of pitches and not wasting many swings, but he’s missing a lot of hittable pitches. The SwStr rate of 17% is the equivalent of average results of batters vs Matt Barnes. Saw somewhere (maybe posted here?) pitchers are working him w 4FB up, and with his slight uppercut path he’s under a lot of them. We’ll see how it shakes out, cuz he crushes what he hits, and so he could be a sorta-odd high-BABIP guy (lots of up-the middle) who’s also TTO.
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Post by telson13 on May 3, 2019 19:54:18 GMT -5
“A three run Johnson!” Eck is a national treasure. His expressions and enthusiasm are pure gold. Easily my all-time fav color guy/analyst. He’s so knowledgeable but also hilarious.
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Post by telson13 on May 3, 2019 19:56:37 GMT -5
Marcus Walden is on pace for 20 wins. I say he ends the year 11-2. Falls off his pace only because the starters can’t possibly be this bad all year. Also, he shoulda been in there in the 9th last night.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2019 20:07:16 GMT -5
Devers hit that one like it owed him money. Marrrrrrone! What a bomb. 110.7 EV, his third highest of the year, and obviously the best launch angle among his hard hit balls.
If he's in fact made a tiny adjustment to get his launch angle right, after already being locked in bat-to-ball-wise ... watch out.
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Post by humanbeingbean on May 3, 2019 20:09:36 GMT -5
Tim Anderson’s cratering has been sudden.
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Post by kjkramer on May 3, 2019 20:10:50 GMT -5
Sale is a much different pitcher at 95+ Every MPH over 95, he gets more dominant
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2019 20:23:14 GMT -5
I hope Lin is ok. I don't want Nunez to be the backup short stop.
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