SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
5/6-5/8 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 8, 2019 0:16:39 GMT -5
Yeap. Simply put, the Yankees have had WAY better starting pitching depth to begin with. I'm getting mocked on here (once again), but the Yankees 6th starter in German is literally pitching like a Cy Young candidate right now. You don't seem to understand what "depth" means. Or "to begin with."
On the winter rosters, the #6 guys were German and Stephen Wright. Pretty clear edge to the Sox.
The #7 guys were Jonathan Loaisiga and Brian Johnson. Ditto. Loaisiga's about to make his 3rd start for the Yanks.
The #8 guys were Gio Gonzalez and Velazquez. They had to cut Gonzalez loose, and they now don't seem to have a #8. They have only 2 SP on option, Chance Adams and Albert Abreu, and they're getting hit hard in AAA and AA respectively. None of their AAAA veterans at Scranton are pitching particularly well.
You're comparing a team that has only needed 2 starts from their #7 to a team that has needed 5 starts from their #8 (and gotten +0.22 WPA, granted, in more of an opener role) and 1 emergency start for a #9 that had to go to the arm that was convenient, and you're concluding that the former has more depth because the #6 has been great while the other team's #9 was unimpressive.
Meanwhile, the Sox #8 has pitched twice as much as the Yankees #7 and bests him on every metric, while the Yankees do not appear to have a #8 at all.
If the Yankees had to have given 6 starts to guys beyond Loaisiga on their depth chart they'd be so far up the creek Fed Ex would refuse to ship them a paddle.
(Probably an exaggeration, but it wouldn't have been pretty.)
Okay, Stephen Wright was NEVER considered the 6th starter at any point in the off-season coming off of a knee injury last year and being shut down the last month of the season and into the postseason. So WTH are you talking about? Considering you've already pointed out this terrible point out should throw out the rest of the post. Dombrowski has ALWAYS viewed Stephen Wright as a bullpen arm, even before the season started. I'll post links.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
|
Post by ericmvan on May 8, 2019 0:30:25 GMT -5
I am beginning to like this team a lot. Imagine what it will be like when JBJ gets hot, as he almost certainly will. Have to give credit to the front office for the bullpen. The most interesting question is whether pitchers will figure out Chavis, and if they do, if he can adjust.. II he keeps hitting this team might top last year's in hitting. Read 0 for last 9 and getting him on high stuff so we are about to find out. OTOH Workman has allowed no hits in his last 9 innings. There's really nothing to figure out. He's very susceptible in the top third of the zone, and he's much more selective on the outer third, so the book is to get him to take strikes on the outer third and then try to get him on a pitch in the zone but up. It's just way easier said than done. He knows his weaknesses, doesn't chase much out of the zone, and right now he's crushing most balls in his 4 hot zones while doing enough damage on the outer third middle and down (I would guess by guessing correctly) to keep pitchers wary from going there too often.
He'll cool down, but I don't see why it would be because they figure him out -- it'll happen when he inevitably gets his mechanics a bit out of synch. (OTOH, in MLB he has new tools, like those JDM has pioneered, to monitor his swing and try to keep it in synch.)
Re the 0/9 ...
On May 5 he walked twice, fanned twice (once looking), and had a 102.8 EV on a deep fly out to LF. The expected SA was .964, so that was a HR under almost all other circumstances.
Yesterday the whole team except CV and JDM struggled, and Chavis actually had the best day besides those two and Nunez.
That kind of leaves today, and that's not much to go on. This is the reason why studies can't find statistically significant streakiness for hitters using conventional stats: there's just too much noise.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
|
Post by ericmvan on May 8, 2019 0:43:35 GMT -5
You don't seem to understand what "depth" means. Or "to begin with."
On the winter rosters, the #6 guys were German and Stephen Wright. Pretty clear edge to the Sox.
The #7 guys were Jonathan Loaisiga and Brian Johnson. Ditto. Loaisiga's about to make his 3rd start for the Yanks.
The #8 guys were Gio Gonzalez and Velazquez. They had to cut Gonzalez loose, and they now don't seem to have a #8. They have only 2 SP on option, Chance Adams and Albert Abreu, and they're getting hit hard in AAA and AA respectively. None of their AAAA veterans at Scranton are pitching particularly well.
You're comparing a team that has only needed 2 starts from their #7 to a team that has needed 5 starts from their #8 (and gotten +0.22 WPA, granted, in more of an opener role) and 1 emergency start for a #9 that had to go to the arm that was convenient, and you're concluding that the former has more depth because the #6 has been great while the other team's #9 was unimpressive.
Meanwhile, the Sox #8 has pitched twice as much as the Yankees #7 and bests him on every metric, while the Yankees do not appear to have a #8 at all.
If the Yankees had to have given 6 starts to guys beyond Loaisiga on their depth chart they'd be so far up the creek Fed Ex would refuse to ship them a paddle.
(Probably an exaggeration, but it wouldn't have been pretty.)
Okay, Stephen Wright was NEVER considered the 6th starter at any point in the off-season coming off of a knee injury last year and being shut down the last month of the season and into the postseason. So WTH are you talking about? Considering you've already pointed out this terrible point out should throw out the rest of the post. Dombrowski has ALWAYS viewed Stephen Wright as a bullpen arm, even before the season started. I'll post links. He was talked about as a valuable bullpen arm because there were five guys ahead of him that had contributed to a 118-win season. He was a legitimate All-Star as a SP when healthy. He was expected to be healthy by a month or so into the season. Once he establishes himself as healthy, he immediately becomes the #6.
I might point out that last year he was in the precise same position: he was coming off an injury and nobody was talking about him as a SP option. Within two weeks of his first good relief appearance (his third overall), he was in the rotation and put up a 20.2 11 1 1 8 15 line (.157 / .253 / .171) in his three healthy starts. Pretty much identical to what he had done in his last four relief appearances (9 4 0 0 5 8, .138 / .265 / .172).
Maybe I'm mistaken, but I think that's generally considered good enough to give a guy another shot at it.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on May 8, 2019 1:19:46 GMT -5
What's been so surprising about Chavis's run has been the walks. He's always had good power and it's always seemed like he homered in bunches (though I haven't gone back through the logs to confirm that). But he's always been a little bit on the aggressive side, not just on swings and misses, but also getting overamped and making weak contact on pitches he didn't need to swing at. The walks seem to indicate he's been really focusing on waiting on his pitch. I don't know if that's higher-end coaching, his pitch recognition maturing, or just one of those flukish things where pitchers are working a young hitter out of the zone to get a feel if he'll get himself out. It's really interesting though. Re: the last point tho, he did it in AAA this year, too. So it seems like a specific adjustment he’s made (and Eric talked about this a bit re: FB up)
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 8, 2019 3:39:45 GMT -5
Okay, Stephen Wright was NEVER considered the 6th starter at any point in the off-season coming off of a knee injury last year and being shut down the last month of the season and into the postseason. So WTH are you talking about? Considering you've already pointed out this terrible point out should throw out the rest of the post. Dombrowski has ALWAYS viewed Stephen Wright as a bullpen arm, even before the season started. I'll post links. He was talked about as a valuable bullpen arm because there were five guys ahead of him that had contributed to a 118-win season. He was a legitimate All-Star as a SP when healthy. He was expected to be healthy by a month or so into the season. Once he establishes himself as healthy, he immediately becomes the #6.
I might point out that last year he was in the precise same position: he was coming off an injury and nobody was talking about him as a SP option. Within two weeks of his first good relief appearance (his third overall), he was in the rotation and put up a 20.2 11 1 1 8 15 line (.157 / .253 / .171) in his three healthy starts. Pretty much identical to what he had done in his last four relief appearances (9 4 0 0 5 8, .138 / .265 / .172).
Maybe I'm mistaken, but I think that's generally considered good enough to give a guy another shot at it.
Dude, naming 2016 stats (his All-Star year) is completely usless in Wright's case (when it comes to starting). That was the time before he had major career threatening knee surgery. It's almost like saying Pedrioa will be a starting 2B (or a All-Star 2B) once he comes back from rehab. He won't be. Both he and Wright had the same surgery after their injuries. They both need to be part time players on the bench and in the bullpen being used sparingly. Yeap, Wright came back and started last year and he reinjured the same knee. You know why? Because of the rigors and workload of starting pitching. He was declared healthy last year before starting too- www.google.com/amp/s/www.masslive.com/redsox/2018/08/steven_wright_injury_boston_re_10.html%3foutputType=amp"I think it's a surgery that nobody's rehabbed before," Wright said. "It kind of sucks because a lot of it is trial and error. I came back, and I was throwing the ball well. But I just think the workload was too much, too soon as far as being a starter and trying to go out there seven innings. But it was something that we just didn't know." Ohh and I'll leave you with this little tweet just to make things real clear- This was NEVER a depth thing. This was trying to protect Stephen Wright's knees thing. Stephen Wright was NEVER viewed as a starter at ANY point this coming year (this tweet was posted the first day of pitchers and catchers reporting). The Sox learned their lesson from last year. Wright was basically going to be the guy that Walden was last night (multiple innings guy once or twice a week, or high leverage one inning guy). So yeap, the Yankees had better quality depth at starting pitching to start the year, which is the original point you bashed me for while being incorrect about the Sox pitching depth.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on May 8, 2019 4:20:02 GMT -5
JBJ ranks 3rd worst of 164 players in DRS at -8. Dafook is that all about?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 8:02:22 GMT -5
On the winter rosters, the #6 guys were German and Stephen Wright. Pretty clear edge to the Sox. NFBC draft results since the end of the 2018 season: Player Average pick Min pick Max pick German 435.70 229 647 Wright 737.84 579 750 And yes, I excluded draft results from after the PED suspension for Wright's numbers. Didn't help. You could also argue that this is less about the quality of the players in question and more about their respective likelihoods of seeing significant playing time. But what I'll draw your attention to is that out of the 478 drafts represented in this sample, no one took him above the 579th pick. I'm not even trying to make an argument about the quality of the player here. What I am trying to communicate is that your opinion of Steven Wright is shared by approximately no one.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 8, 2019 8:30:32 GMT -5
JBJ ranks 3rd worst of 164 players in DRS at -8. Dafook is that all about? Fielders have slumps, too.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 8, 2019 8:39:50 GMT -5
He's also the only guy who can go 3 innings which is why he usually comes in 2nd in these games. Yes, but he could have come in second after Velazquez got stretched out. Eovaldi hasn't started throwing yet, neither has Johnson. He is going to be in this in this role for a while. You need to stretch this guy out and Cora takes him out immediately after taking a lead. Velazquez isn't getting stretched out on 2 days rest. He's an opener, not a starter.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 8, 2019 11:13:26 GMT -5
JBJ ranks 3rd worst of 164 players in DRS at -8. Dafook is that all about? Fielders have slumps, too. Unfortunately for him, his bat is also terrible. It cant really be sugar-coated, he is costing the teams wins right now. Sooner or later they will have to consider making him the 4th outfielder and giving his at bats to someone who can be more productive I say that as a guy, like most around here, who wants nothing more than to see him do great.
|
|
|
Post by ivor on May 8, 2019 11:49:09 GMT -5
Fielders have slumps, too. Unfortunately for him, his bat is also terrible. It cant really be sugar-coated, he is costing the teams wins right now. Sooner or later they will have to consider making him the 4th outfielder and giving his at bats to someone who can be more productive I say that as a guy, like most around here, who wants nothing more than to see him do great. If Pedroia returns and they feel like they want him to play the majority of the time it wouldn't surprise me if they play JDM in the outfield instead of JBJ and have Chavis as DH
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 8, 2019 14:24:22 GMT -5
Really, the Red Sox should be looking for a RH 4th OF to trade for if they're not going to ever call up Castillo.
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 8, 2019 15:45:43 GMT -5
Chavis sits. Nunez 2B.
TB in the 10th vs. AZ. Swihart LF. 0-4. k, K, 8, 4-3.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 15:54:44 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 8, 2019 18:00:34 GMT -5
Add- Time for the real Chris Sale to please stand up.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 8, 2019 18:30:53 GMT -5
jeez....they are making it sound like Benintendi plays the worst defense in the whole dang league. Not sure i agree with that. He isn't that slow.
|
|
|
Post by kevfc89 on May 8, 2019 18:33:57 GMT -5
jeez....they are making it sound like Benintendi plays the worst defense in the whole dang league. Not sure i agree with that. He isn't that slow. actually, Benny's sprint speed has inexplicably deteriorated this year. He ranks 246th on the statcast leaderboard; that's slower than Steve Pearce and Rafael Devers for context. baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 8, 2019 18:39:47 GMT -5
jeez....they are making it sound like Benintendi plays the worst defense in the whole dang league. Not sure i agree with that. He isn't that slow. actually, Benny's sprint speed has inexplicably deteriorated this year. He ranks 246th on the statcast leaderboard; that's slower than Steve Pearce and Rafael Devers for context. baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboardIt's why I wanted him to get innings in RF in spring training. He's no longer playable in CF.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 8, 2019 18:39:52 GMT -5
jeez....they are making it sound like Benintendi plays the worst defense in the whole dang league. Not sure i agree with that. He isn't that slow. actually, Benny's sprint speed has inexplicably deteriorated this year. He ranks 246th on the statcast leaderboard; that's slower than Steve Pearce and Rafael Devers for context. baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboardreally....that is something else. Edit...that's on the bases, that doesn't necessarily mean outfield, where positioning can help. MOOOOOKIE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 8, 2019 18:43:43 GMT -5
Mookie bomb. He would hit 70 in this place if he played half his home games here.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,728
|
Post by nomar on May 8, 2019 18:44:32 GMT -5
I would never change anything about Mookie, but when he gets in his groove and is consistently pulling the ball and getting lift, it’s an absolute treasure to watch. And right now, nobody wants any part of him... and we just saw why.
|
|
bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
|
Post by bosox on May 8, 2019 18:50:40 GMT -5
jeez....they are making it sound like Benintendi plays the worst defense in the whole dang league. Not sure i agree with that. He isn't that slow. actually, Benny's sprint speed has inexplicably deteriorated this year. He ranks 246th on the statcast leaderboard; that's slower than Steve Pearce and Rafael Devers for context. baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboardThanks for the info. I wondered about his speed. I thought he looked slower this year but figured he couldn't be. It doesn't look like he is busting out of the box when he hits a ball. Curious as to reason his speed has deteriorated. I would think there's no way he could be or should be slower than Pearce.
|
|
|
Post by chrisfromnc on May 8, 2019 18:50:43 GMT -5
Thank you Mookie. Thank you Senquez Golson.
|
|
|
Post by chrisfromnc on May 8, 2019 18:53:00 GMT -5
jeez....they are making it sound like Benintendi plays the worst defense in the whole dang league. Not sure i agree with that. He isn't that slow. My avatar says you’re right.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 18:59:50 GMT -5
Thanks for the info. I wondered about his speed. I thought he looked slower this year but figured he couldn't be. It doesn't look like he is busting out of the box when he hits a ball. Curious as to reason his speed has deteriorated. I would think there's no way he could be or should be slower than Pearce. I suppose the obvious answer would be that it's injury related.
|
|
|