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5/14-5/15 Red Sox vs. Rockies Series Thread
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Post by telson13 on May 16, 2019 1:53:49 GMT -5
Give Josh Taylor and Lakins a look. Taylor, yeah. But I remain wary of giving up on Thornburg. Still, probably wouldn’t hurt to get rid of some dead weight (Nunez) and debut an arm for a little “mmmhhmmm...what do we have here?” session. If I’m DD I’m looking around at pitching-rich orgs like Atlanta that have some live arms. Like...how would Newcomb look as a multi-inning LHR? Maybe that’s a tier too high, since he’s had some good stretches as a starter. But I think it’s the right time to be combing the usual suspects for young, post-hype sleepers whose value is low because they can’t put it together starting. Guys like Glasnow. Or, again, a tier lower. Find the next Wade Davis.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2019 3:08:13 GMT -5
Agree to disagree on Thornburg. He's toast. Agree on Taylor. They could really use a lefty reliever in this roster. It couldn't be anymore apparent then in last night's game. You probably pull Eduardo in the 7th if you have Taylor on the roster.
Lakins is having a bad year in AAA right now. So nevermind on that suggestion. I guess your stuck with what you have outside of Taylor needing a shot. Add- There's 4 relievers you're not using on the roster at all in any high leverage situation.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2019 4:23:37 GMT -5
Last post, but it's not really helping the Sox at all that all 4 of Houck, Hernandez, Lakins, and Feltman are struggling in the minors.
When you look to your farm system and see who's pushing and there's really no answers, then that puts the major league club in a tough spot. You can't trade nothing because no one is performing outside of Duran and maybe Dalbec. You can't call up anyone because no one is performing pitching wise.
You also can't spend money because Henry is complaining about it. So I would really hate to be in Dombrowski's spot right now.
I wonder when the Sox will flip Houck and Hernandez to relief roles and see if that gets them going. Still early, but this is the second year in a row Houck has struggled in a rotation spot, and Hernandez doesn't seem to have the command for a starting spot either. Just my take.
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Post by sturmrider on May 16, 2019 5:03:57 GMT -5
Leave it to Soxfan to talk about tomatoes ;-) I’ve got some sweet heirloom varietals going. Growing tomatoes is...oddly comforting. I've got some Brandywines which I started from seed and some Cherokee Purples going up here in RI. They are taking well now just have to wait for the precious fruits at the end of the season.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 16, 2019 5:33:49 GMT -5
Soxfan "majors in tomatoes and minors in peppers and eggplants"...I have Brandywine, Cherokee Purple and Polish almost ready to eat. The plants are about 7' tall. Take that Earl Weaver!!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 16, 2019 5:48:34 GMT -5
Tomatoes do not do well in the Philippines for whatever reason. All tomatoes you see are similar to USA cherry tomatoes both in size and taste.
ADD:
Common things that are smaller and generally worse than the USA: Tomatoes, celery, bell peppers, potatoes.
Common things that are bigger and generally better than the USA: Radishes, ginger, squash, avocados, green beans.
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Post by jimed14 on May 16, 2019 6:51:38 GMT -5
He's athletic, can run & throw. He'd make an excellent outfielder So, let's just assume that being athletic, able to run, and able to throw are the only qualifications there are for being an outfielder. They're absolutely not the only qualifications, but let's play the game and make those bad assumptions. Chavis.... isn't that athletic? I mean, he's a professional athlete so he's obviously athletic but it's mostly in ways that relate to his hitting ability. He's not very explosive or twitchy and he doesn't strike me as particularly fast. His best defensive attribute is his arm but if you all of a sudden just decided to stick him at an outfield spot there's almost no way he becomes a more valuable defender. And whoever is likely to replace him is probably not going to add enough value as a hitter to counteract the loss of defensive value (and, if we're really getting into the weeds, the small probable loss of offense from Chavis that comes from having to focus on learning a new position). Much more importantly, he has zero experience and putting him out there with no experience is the dumbest suggestion I've ever heard, especially so that Nunez can get into the lineup over JBJ. Especially when Nunez' wRC+ is 18 and JBJ's is 23.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 16, 2019 9:40:33 GMT -5
Last post, but it's not really helping the Sox at all that all 4 of Houck, Hernandez, Lakins, and Feltman are struggling in the minors. When you look to your farm system and see who's pushing and there's really no answers, then that puts the major league club in a tough spot. You can't trade nothing because no one is performing outside of Duran and maybe Dalbec. You can't call up anyone because no one is performing pitching wise. You also can't spend money because Henry is complaining about it. So I would really hate to be in Dombrowski's spot right now. I wonder when the Sox will flip Houck and Hernandez to relief roles and see if that gets them going. Still early, but this is the second year in a row Houck has struggled in a rotation spot, and Hernandez doesn't seem to have the command for a starting spot either. Just my take. I look at it this way. If the Sox are healthy - huge if right there, but we'll play the game, what would a post-season roster potentially look like? We know the lineup. We know the five starters. Right now we'd be comfortable penciling in the 2 Bs and the 2 Ws, which is Barnes, Brasier, Workman, and Walden. So we have 18 players on a 25 man roster. Obviously, if healthy, you have Leon and Holt on the bench, so that's 20. So we have 11 hitters and 9 pitchers. I would guess they'd go with 11 pitchers in a post-season and 14 hitters, as you'd suspect the starters would do double duty again, so that means 3 more hitters. So we'll go with Pearce, Pedroia, and Nunez as the rest of the bench, although none of those 3 are guaranteed spots (I still think Pearce will figure things out). And that leaves 2 bullpen spots. Right now I'd say Hembree and Velazquez as the rest of the pen, but it's obvious they can upgrade those spots. Last season Hembree wasn't on the ALDS post-season roster and probably got in eventually because of Workman's ineffectiveness/Wright's injury. Velazquez, despite, pitching well, didn't make the roster - probably because they didn't want low leverage long relief and his stuff isn't great. And same situation with Johnson. I doubt those upgrades come from the minors. I think Lakins will get some looks. I think Houck might pitch well if given a chance, but I wouldn't expect much in the way of impact. I think control issues would plaque Hernandez and Feltman. Shawaryn could get a look as well, but it seems to me that at least one of those two spots goes to somebody outside the organization in a deal. The Red Sox will likely get a high leverage reliever, somebody they'd use as their #2 high leverage reliever (possibly used as a designated closer so that Barnes can be their chief fireman in whatever inning they decide to use him in). During the season Brian Johnson will take a roster spot. Eventually Steven Wright will be back even though he cannot pitch in the post-season. They'll have to decide on Thornburg and unfortunately he continues to make it an easy decision. Brewer will probably ride the Pawtucket shuttle.
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Post by James Dunne on May 16, 2019 9:51:15 GMT -5
Brandon Workman has a 20% walk rate and a .100 BABIP and entered the season. If people want to talk themselves into him being a fourth-best reliever, and a high-leverage dude, I dunno. I'd be cool with that working out, but I'm not sure it's a good plan.
I'm also a little nervous that Marcus Walden's success is coming from throwing a version of the slider that he got hurt throwing, and then scrapped, and then started throwing again because he wasn't good enough without it. Again, if he can sustain his health throwing that slider, wonderful, but I don't know about it as a plan.
Tyler Thornburg has thrown once in 12 days. It's getting into Swihart territory, where maybe the stuff and tools or whatever are there, but without the opportunity to work them into game shape, then so what? He's not going to get there pitching so infrequently, and it's doing both him and the team a disservice to keep him on as a never-pitching 8th reliever. In the last month he has faced 34 batters over six appearances.
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Post by dirtdog on May 16, 2019 13:43:21 GMT -5
/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1129085709057495040&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Fboston-red-sox
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Post by dirtdog on May 16, 2019 13:45:00 GMT -5
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Post by dirtdog on May 16, 2019 13:46:14 GMT -5
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Post by dirtdog on May 16, 2019 13:49:10 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 16, 2019 14:21:21 GMT -5
I’ve got some sweet heirloom varietals going. Growing tomatoes is...oddly comforting. I've got some Brandywines which I started from seed and some Cherokee Purples going up here in RI. They are taking well now just have to wait for the precious fruits at the end of the season. I waited a bit long to put mine out and they weren’t ready for the UV hit. But the rain’s helping them come back. Can’t wait for September. I just start from seed from the heirlooms that I buy and eat. They grow gangbusters. More seedlings than I could ever plant.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2019 14:25:18 GMT -5
Brandon Workman has a 20% walk rate and a .100 BABIP and entered the season. If people want to talk themselves into him being a fourth-best reliever, and a high-leverage dude, I dunno. I'd be cool with that working out, but I'm not sure it's a good plan. I'm also a little nervous that Marcus Walden's success is coming from throwing a version of the slider that he got hurt throwing, and then scrapped, and then started throwing again because he wasn't good enough without it. Again, if he can sustain his health throwing that slider, wonderful, but I don't know about it as a plan. Tyler Thornburg has thrown once in 12 days. It's getting into Swihart territory, where maybe the stuff and tools or whatever are there, but without the opportunity to work them into game shape, then so what? He's not going to get there pitching so infrequently, and it's doing both him and the team a disservice to keep him on as a never-pitching 8th reliever. In the last month he has faced 34 batters over six appearances. Workman (whose expected BABIP is .267) now has an adjusted xwOBA of .284, a good #4 guy on a contender. A #4 guy doesn't pitch that much in high leverage. And three outings ago it was about .256, so he may trend back downwards.
I believe Walden junked the slider because he believed that throwing it had led to his arm problems, but I believe the notion that throwing too many sliders damages your elbow has been debunked, and that he picked it up again when he learned that. I don't think they'd be riding him as hard as they are if they thought there was a significant injury risk.
We thought we had a solid 1 and 2 for a contender in Barnes and Brasier and needed to have guys step forward or appear from thin air to fill the 3 and 4 roles. Well, we filled the 2 and 4 roles that way, but Brasier has been league-average and if he doesn't bounce back, he's not a guy you want in your top 4 as a contender.
Steven Wright is the current best hope to fill a high-lev role. If you exclude the start where he ended up on the DL last year, he had a .278 xwOBA (adjusted for balls hit to center but not opposition quality, which he's probably fairly immune to). But there's reason to believe he's better than that when he's healthy and in his groove:
.272 in 34 PA -- start of season .226 in 53 PA -- following that (3 G in relief, 1 start)
.328 in 55 PA -- two starts before the awful one (he also lost his ability to get guys to hit to CF)
.338 in 32 PA -- upon his return .217 in 26 PA -- to end of season.
His 7 best outings are the 4 in the second phase and 3 of his final 4. That's unlikely to be entirely random. I'm of course not arguing that he can put up a .220 in a relief role if he's healthy (big if, I know) and un-rusty, but if the .278 is really a .260 or .265, he can be the #3. I think the team felt that way before the suspension.
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Post by telson13 on May 16, 2019 14:26:10 GMT -5
TB has three guys on the “lowest hard-hit rate” one. Just wanna say one more time: I called them being a contender this year *last* April during all their weird roster moves and bullpenning, and got shouted out of the house. Make no mistake. That is a well-run organization. They’ll be around to the end and again next year. Shades of 2007-2008.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2019 14:39:05 GMT -5
The Sox can't rely on Stephen Wright to fill anything but innings. He can't play in the postseason because he got suspended.
The Sox have 2 sustainable high leverage arms at the moment. They need two more before September from somewhere.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2019 14:46:04 GMT -5
I've come to the conclusion that BIS's Hard% is fundamentally flawed. A ball is classified as hard, medium, or soft relative to its type. So it doesn't have much meaning without adding in a LD%, FB%, GB% breakdown.
Before I learned this I couldn't find a meaningful correlation of Hard% to BABIP. And Statcast data is just plain better.
The Res Sox staff is 9th in unadjusted xwOBA allowed.
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Post by jimed14 on May 16, 2019 15:19:05 GMT -5
I'm not sure when team BB% stabilizes, but the Reds Sox have gone from a 9.0% walk rate in 2018 to 11.0% this season.
Just for kicks, it was also 9.0 in 2017 and 8.8 in 2016.
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Post by sturmrider on May 16, 2019 16:07:37 GMT -5
I've got some Brandywines which I started from seed and some Cherokee Purples going up here in RI. They are taking well now just have to wait for the precious fruits at the end of the season. I waited a bit long to put mine out and they weren’t ready for the UV hit. But the rain’s helping them come back. Can’t wait for September. I just start from seed from the heirlooms that I buy and eat. They grow gangbusters. More seedlings than I could ever plant. Yeah, I save the seeds from a couple of the tomatoes from the previous year thus never have to buy seeds again. I use the paper towel method for saving the seeds and when I started them this year I had so many seedlings I was giving some away.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 16, 2019 18:12:24 GMT -5
Not to get the thread too far 'afield' but telson you must be in a northern clime. I grew up in southern Maine and Memorial Day weekend was spent planting and paying homage to the goddess of agriculture, Demeter.
Now spending 9 months annually in Sarasota, my tomato plants, started from seed about 3 months ago, could be props in a remake of Day of the Triffids.
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Post by dirtdog on May 16, 2019 23:43:05 GMT -5
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