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5/14-5/15 Red Sox vs. Rockies Series Thread
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Post by grandsalami on May 14, 2019 22:01:59 GMT -5
This was more on the offense than bullpen.
We had 9LOB. couldn’t get men in when we had the chances.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 14, 2019 22:05:37 GMT -5
This was more on the offense than bullpen. We had 9LOB. couldn’t get men in when we had the chances. THIS for sure. Some horrendous batting performances here and there in the line up. PLEASE cut Nunez...PLEASE
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 14, 2019 22:07:53 GMT -5
SOS to Holt, Lin, Marco Hernandez - get healthy, get called up - SOS to Cora - please say goodbye to Nunez. Please.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 14, 2019 22:08:26 GMT -5
The Rockies out bullpened the Sox. Their bullpen overall is just better and that's why you lost this ballgame. Awful loss. You lost the game because their Bullpen lucked himself in getting a lineout double play with a runner on 3rd with 1 out at the bottom of the 8th! That's being lucky that's it! Don't read too much into it. You can look at it that way or you can say they were fortunate to get the rarest Nolan Arenado error to start that rally. -Brasier isn't good anymore -Workman was 4 inches away from giving up 2 bombs, which has been his biggest issue since coming back from Tommy John surgery. -Sale and Barnes are dominant Those are the things you can read into imo.
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Post by bluechip on May 14, 2019 22:08:29 GMT -5
Can’t keep hiding from this bullpen DD. What do you want him to do? Trade Chavis? If so for who? They have hardly any salary room...
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Post by bluechip on May 14, 2019 22:09:42 GMT -5
This was more on the offense than bullpen. We had 9LOB. couldn’t get men in when we had the chances. The offense certainly stalled tonight after the recent dominance.
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Post by incandenza on May 14, 2019 22:11:18 GMT -5
I just tuned in during the 10th, so didn't ride the rollercoaster, but I'll say this: I kind of feel about as good about this loss as you can feel about a loss. Like, 24 Ks? And we hit three homers? I mean, come on. You win 99 out of 100 games like that. But baseball is baseball, so we lost this one.
In short, this is the sort of loss an incredibly hot and talented team has. I can live with that.
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Post by station13 on May 14, 2019 22:18:06 GMT -5
SOS to Holt, Lin, Marco Hernandez - get healthy, get called up - SOS to Cora - please say goodbye to Nunez. Please. enough 2Bs now to last another century.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
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Post by radiohix on May 14, 2019 22:19:00 GMT -5
You lost the game because their Bullpen lucked himself in getting a lineout double play with a runner on 3rd with 1 out at the bottom of the 8th! That's being lucky that's it! Don't read too much into it. You can look at it that way or you can say they were fortunate to get the rarest Nolan Arenado error to start that rally. -Brasier isn't good, you can read into that -Workman was 4 inches away from giving up 2 bombs, which has been his biggest issue since coming back from Tommy John surgery. -Sale and Barnes are dominant Those are the things you can read into imo. I know you like bitching about the bullpen, you've been doing that since last year, it's your happy zone so knock yourself out and hopefully we end up like last year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 14, 2019 22:20:23 GMT -5
Yup, that loss was the most aggravating of the season. They totally should have won that game.
The good news was that Chris Sale is back. The Sox aren't going anywhere without a dominant Sale.
The bullpen, for the most part, has pitched much better than I anticipated, but it's still a thin bullpen, or at least I think so.
Like Pedro here, I felt when Brasier was coming into the game, they'd lose. He's not a bad pitcher, and he can help the team, but right now his numbers are catching up to his peripherals. I don't like that he's #2 in the pecking order of the bullpen.
Likewise Workman is streaky. When he's good, he's good for about a month's stretch, but when he's bad, it can last.
The Sox are going to have to get a bullpen arm or two come July or else more games are going to slip away.
I guess that's where the difference lies between last year's team and this year's team. Last year's bullpen, during the regular season, wasn't that much better, but somehow they did a great job holding leads. This year's pen - if the game is close, it's not really a feeling of safety.
I was hoping somebody like a Feltman or a Hernandez would look dominant in the minors, but both of those pitchers have had severe control issues and neither one is somebody I'd want the Sox to rely on come August.
But, the bullpen lost because Barnes was done after his second inning. They lost because the offense could just not get key hits. They bludgeoned everybody for the past several days, but when it was time to get a key hit they couldn't do it today.
It didn't help that they were stuck with Nunez batting in a key spot. I don't hate Nunez as much as everybody else here does, but he's really adding nothing to the team. If he doesn't hit well, he's useless - which he is right now.
I'm also a bit surprised Benintendi didn't lay down a bunt with JBJ on 1st in the 9th. He's been struggling and I thought that would be a good time. Yeah, they'd walk Mookie, but JDM, X, and Devers were up afterwards so I would have taken my chances. Benintendi, in the 11th, swung at ball 3, which is something he doesn't normally do either when he's going well.
Aggravating loss. Hope it doesn't turn into a mini-series sweep for the Rockies.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 14, 2019 22:30:09 GMT -5
You can look at it that way or you can say they were fortunate to get the rarest Nolan Arenado error to start that rally. -Brasier isn't good, you can read into that -Workman was 4 inches away from giving up 2 bombs, which has been his biggest issue since coming back from Tommy John surgery. -Sale and Barnes are dominant Those are the things you can read into imo. I know you like bitching about the bullpen, you've been doing that since last year, it's your happy zone so knock yourself out and hopefully we end up like last year. If the rotation ends up being the entire bullpen (in the playoffs) mostly like last year, then it will prove to be fruitless. The rotation won you a title last year. They carried the load, along with a hot Joe Kelly in the world series. The Sox were fortunate to get by with like 8 arms doing all the work last year.
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Post by telson13 on May 14, 2019 22:31:11 GMT -5
You lost the game because their Bullpen lucked himself in getting a lineout double play with a runner on 3rd with 1 out at the bottom of the 8th! That's being lucky that's it! Don't read too much into it. You can look at it that way or you can say they were fortunate to get the rarest Nolan Arenado error to start that rally. -Brasier isn't good anymore -Workman was 4 inches away from giving up 2 bombs, which has been his biggest issue since coming back from Tommy John surgery. -Sale and Barnes are dominant Those are the things you can read into imo. Brasier hasn’t been good all year. He was lucky early on. His command has been off and he’s left a bunch of SL and especially 4FB right in the heart of the plate. I think it’s recoverable because the stuff is there, but he needs to move the 4FB up 6 inches and the SL down and out by 4 or 5. At least Walden’s and Workman’s performances are supported by their deeper numbers and pitch locations/usage. And Barnes continues to be awesome. I genuinely think one of Brewer, Hembree, or even Thornburg will step up. All three have shown great stuff but problems with location. They also have Josh Taylor throwing well in AAA from the L. The bullpen is thin, yes, but not irredeemably so.
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Post by station13 on May 14, 2019 22:38:55 GMT -5
Brasier isn't really good. Remember the JBJ grab to save Braiser's ass? He missed that one by north and south on the map. Set up over the letters on Macini, he threw that down and in.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 14, 2019 22:39:22 GMT -5
I just don't know how people think the exact same thing is going to happen this year in the playoffs and pointing to that as a proven model to win. The Sox were the best team last year, but they were still fortunate with even that bullpen.
This year's bullpen has even less talent than that one.
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Post by incandenza on May 14, 2019 22:44:41 GMT -5
I know you like bitching about the bullpen, you've been doing that since last year, it's your happy zone so knock yourself out and hopefully we end up like last year. If the rotation ends up being the entire bullpen (in the playoffs) mostly like last year, then it will prove to be fruitless. The rotation won you a title last year. They carried the load, along with a hot Joe Kelly in the world series. The Sox were fortunate to get by with like 8 arms doing all the work last year. Red Sox team bullpen, AL rank: ERA: 6th FIP: 6th xFIP: 3rd K/9: 2nd There's room for improvement, as most of us figured there would be. But before you go too far down the road of complaining that the 5th guy out of the bullpen isn't Mariano Rivera, it may be helpful to be clear exactly what the bar you want to set here is. What would these rankings have to be to satisfy you?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 14, 2019 22:47:49 GMT -5
If the rotation ends up being the entire bullpen (in the playoffs) mostly like last year, then it will prove to be fruitless. The rotation won you a title last year. They carried the load, along with a hot Joe Kelly in the world series. The Sox were fortunate to get by with like 8 arms doing all the work last year. Red Sox team bullpen, AL rank: ERA: 6th FIP: 6th xFIP: 3rd K/9: 2nd There's room for improvement, as most of us figured there would be. But before you go too far down the road of complaining that the 5th guy out of the bullpen isn't Mariano Rivera, it may be helpful to be clear exactly what the bar you want to set here is. What would these rankings have to be to satisfy you? You don't think there's a correction coming (or regression coming), do you?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 14, 2019 22:52:23 GMT -5
Go look at Brasier, Thornburg, and Brewer's stats. That is half your bullpen. Then you have Josh Smith and Ryan Weber. Looking at fortunate team rankings to this point doesn't do it justice. There is a correction coming and the depth isn't good.
Add- Any regression from Walden and Workman and you're porked.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 14, 2019 22:53:24 GMT -5
Let's move from the pen to the bats -
Benni - .265 BA, 4 Ks tonight Mookie - .279 - 0-5 tonight, back into a mini slump Xander - .263 - not firing on all cylinders at the moment
then there is Pearce - .111 - Nunez - .194 - Leon - .200 - JBJ - .149.
Team is being carried by JDM, Devers, Chavis (.407 OBP, slugging .592) and....CVaz (up to .286)
So, there is lots of room for improvement. And games like tonight - where the bullpen is needed to give up nothing - will be tough with some blatant line up holes.
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Post by station13 on May 14, 2019 22:58:39 GMT -5
Let's move from the pen to the bats - Benni - .265 BA, 4 Ks tonight Mookie - .279 - 0-5 tonight, back into a mini slump Xander - .263 - not firing on all cylinders at the moment then there is Pearce - .111 - Nunez - .194 - Leon - .200 - JBJ - .149. Team is being carried by JDM, Devers, Chavis (.407 OBP, slugging .592) and....CVaz (up to .286) So, there is lots of room for improvement. And games like tonight - where the bullpen is needed to give up nothing - will be tough with some blatant line up holes. They need relievers more than adding a bat. The bats will be just fine. They score a lot of runs recently. Both set up man Workman and Brasier are homeruns prone. They don't look good at all. Workman seems just ordinary and walked too much as he know his flat stuff gets hit. Brasier has no track record.
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Post by incandenza on May 14, 2019 22:59:28 GMT -5
Red Sox team bullpen, AL rank: ERA: 6th FIP: 6th xFIP: 3rd K/9: 2nd There's room for improvement, as most of us figured there would be. But before you go too far down the road of complaining that the 5th guy out of the bullpen isn't Mariano Rivera, it may be helpful to be clear exactly what the bar you want to set here is. What would these rankings have to be to satisfy you? You don't think there's a correction coming (or regression coming), do you? So to be clear: you're saying the performance of the bullpen has been fine, you just don't believe they'll be able to keep it up?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 14, 2019 23:17:05 GMT -5
You don't think there's a correction coming (or regression coming), do you? So to be clear: you're saying the performance of the bullpen has been fine, you just don't believe they'll be able to keep it up? Yes it has been fine, but talent is going to catch up to them. My problem is people pointing to last year like that's a given. My other problem is finding a high leverage arm outside of Barnes and maybe Walden. This problem is going to have to resolve itself from prospects from within or prospects are getting traded by July in a already thin farm system. People are crazy if they think Workman is going to be the third highest leverage arm come September.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 14, 2019 23:23:48 GMT -5
Yes it has been fine, but talent is going to catch up to them. My problem is people pointing to last year like that's a given. My other problem is finding a high leverage arm outside of Barnes and maybe Walden. This problem is going to have to resolve itself from prospects from within or prospects are getting traded by July in a already thin farm system. People are crazy if they think Workman is going to be the third highest leverage arm come September. They have a lot of intriguing in-house options. Remember, Ty Buttrey was once one of those random guys.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 15, 2019 0:43:59 GMT -5
While it is too bad he didn't get the win tonight, Sale's performance gives us good reason to believe there won't be a lot more nights when he doesn't get the win.
It is concerning that Brasier, who, when he is going well, doesn't walk anyone, walked two tonight and blew the game. Cora has not been using him in key situations much recently and so something must be going on with his command. He did throw a 97 MPH FB at one point, so he hasn't lost that. I wouldn't give up on him.
This current bullpen has the oddest assortment of journeymen arms that we have seen in a long time. The Sox are pushing their luck.
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Post by telson13 on May 15, 2019 1:05:36 GMT -5
Yes it has been fine, but talent is going to catch up to them. My problem is people pointing to last year like that's a given. My other problem is finding a high leverage arm outside of Barnes and maybe Walden. This problem is going to have to resolve itself from prospects from within or prospects are getting traded by July in a already thin farm system. People are crazy if they think Workman is going to be the third highest leverage arm come September. They have a lot of intriguing in-house options. Remember, Ty Buttrey was once one of those random guys. That’s kind of my point, too. Brasier is struggling with fine location. That’s fixable. Brewer’s struggles are largely related to high-leverage and some poor CU location, and maybe some trouble being consistent with the CB, which by heatmap is in the right zone, but it’s not clustered that well. Similar with the CU. That’s a control issue, but he’s shown some improvement. Thornburg has had very good stuff, especially the CB, but his 4FB is down the pipe. That should also be fixable, especially given all the lost time...you’d *expect* his command to be off. Workman just had one bad game. But looking at his heatmaps, his command has been good, and he’s worked up-down very well with the 4FB-CB. His performance also coincides with a very major, obvious change in approach: he’s flipped FB and CB usage. There’s no reason to presume he’s going to suddenly be bad; I expect there will be some league adjustment, and he’ll adjust back. His barrel rate remains very low, as does his EV. His velocity has also improved a bit. Deeper down the ‘pen, as tempting as it is to think Walden will turn back into a pumpkin, he mixes four pitches, essentially all above-average to plus, and he locates *very* well. His heatmaps look fantastic (like, 60 command), hitting the edges and keeping his stuff at the edges of the zone. Good SwStr rates, low barrel rate, tons of pitches on the corners, buries his SL. Even the forgotten man, Hembree, has been solid if unspectacular. And frankly, his CB and SL have been very well-located. His only real issue is similar to Thornburg and Brasier: too many 4FB down the pipe or lower in the zone. Seems to me he commands the breakers OK but isn’t completely comfortable either burying them or elevating the FB. Even so, with a high-spin 4FB (2400+) that has plus velocity, results with the FB are *outstanding*: 34% whiff rate, measly 0.194 xWOBA, and sputtering 85.2 mph EV. LA is 24 degrees, so I’m guessing some IFFB too. Elevating 2-3 inches and pulling his SL down about 4-5 inches should help; both breakers are getting shelled so I think he probably needs to stay FB-heavy but do an Ottavino and get used to burying the SL and CB below the zone. He needs to up his O-Sw against. There’s plenty to work with there, too. Hell, try bringing back the CH. In the minors, they have Taylor (who’s going well), plus potentially as innings pile up, guys like Mata or Houck or even Darwinzon for an MLB taste. Maybe Ellington finds the plate. Maybe Feltman or Lakins gets on track. The point is, the ?s at high-leverage (Walden, Workman) have a lot of hard data backing up what they’ve done. It’s not spurious. I’m a lot less likely to expect “regression” when there’s actually a rationale beyond “this guy wasn’t always this good.” Regression to the mean is a product of normalizing “luck”—but neither Walden or Workman has been lucky, they’ve just been good. Brasier *was* lucky, and due for regression...and we’re seeing that now. But there’s a clearly identifiable command/location issue that can be addressed. And the same goes for several other pitchers there. I mean, you want “regression?” Colten Brewer has terrific statcast data: his xWOBA, EV, **xSLG**, spin rate...they’re ALL good to terrific ( baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/colten-brewer-605155?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb ). His *results* do not jibe with prediction...THAT is a case ripe for regression...only in this instance, it’s positive. In fact, put me down as saying HE is the guy I think will step up. His 4FB usage is very low, but he’s at least worked the edges and the velo is excellent. Maybe he uses it more. If he can get there with his CU, getting towards the edges, and get those middle-middle CB down, he’ll be a monster. But even if he doesn’t, his results should improve, because they’re in inconsistent with the underlying (excellent) expectations. I don’t think the bullpen will be a team *strength*, really. But I do think Barnes will be Barnes (only even better than last year by being more consistent and leveraging his CB), Workman should stay a viable 7th inning guy, Walden will continue to be terrific unless he suddenly loses his location (and there’s no reason to expect that), and Brewer’s ERA and actual SLG against, wOBA against, etc will begin to look like his expected results per statcast, i.e, a good bullpen arm with high-leverage potential provided he can cut his walk rate. Even his FIP and xFIP, while just meh (4+) are way better than his ERA and hurt by the walks. There’s plenty of strengths on this team; the bullpen needn’t be anything more than solid, which it IS. It’s certainly not a “weakness,” because they’ve been above-average. And there’s slightly more evidence, I’d say, for improvement versus decline. Yes, they lack MLB depth. But they have a bunch of arms lying around and if forced, they *can* trade. I’m just not concerned enough at this point to chicken little over an aspect of the team that’s performed slightly better than expected. If an injury happens, worry about it then.
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Post by telson13 on May 15, 2019 1:21:57 GMT -5
I just don't know how people think the exact same thing is going to happen this year in the playoffs and pointing to that as a proven model to win. The Sox were the best team last year, but they were still fortunate with even that bullpen. This year's bullpen has even less talent than that one. Barnes so far has been as good as Kimbrel. Walden has been nearly as good as Barnes was last year. Workman’s been as good as Brasier was. Maybe there’s less *depth*, but at the top they’re largely unchanged. I’m certainly not saying they shouldn’t put a bunch of feelers out on arms, but I’d prefer several smaller moves for arb dumps or tweeners who are early in their careers and are struggling as back-end starters. I think the volume approach at low cost is the way to go. They have a blueprint for success that way. They also have more minor league depth this year. The data say their bullpen has been solid. They got by last year with one of their main guys (Kelly) awful for three months. They have better options than making a talent-costly move for an expensive high-profile arm.
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