radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,410
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Post by radiohix on Jun 3, 2019 16:09:19 GMT -5
Our thicc lovable son was chosen AL player of the month and Michael Chavis was elected AL rookie of the month. Call me a homer but IMO this organization is second to none in drafting and developing hitting talent over the past 8-9 years. The scary part is the next wave is coming headed by Antoni Flores and his sidekick Triston Casas.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 3, 2019 21:25:11 GMT -5
Starting pitching / defense Karma on balls in play (as measured by xwOBA - wOBA, so negative is bad / unlucky):
-.081 Sale -.079 Porcello (who had been +.040 +/- .027 over his previous 7 starts, so this was 4.4 standard deviations worse)
-.048 Price
At an average -.069, this wasn't the series this season with the worst karma - that was the opening Mariners' series with -.075 over four games. But the defense was playing lousy at the start of the season. We actually had excellent defense in this series -- heck, last night Sam Travis even made a great play at 1B after he'd been pinch-hit for! (Devers also had a great play to his left that the announcers said nothing about because they cut right to an update of the collegiate softball title.)
And if you include Weber's -.149 in the last game of the Indians' series, the -.087 over four games is easily the worst four-game stretch of bad karma for the starters.
This seems to be all luck (except perhaps for Porcello, who seems to be able to get hitters to hit into the shift when he's on his game).
Meanwhile, we've finished a 9-game stretch against Houston and the Yankees. I think it's fair to eliminate the bullpen game started by Velazquez. We went 3-5 in the others.
In those 8 games (6 on the road), we had a .295 xwOBA versus the opponents .285. We had a .299 wOBA versus their .270.
The difference between our xwOBA and the opponents, by games. Except where noted, the team with the higher xwOBA also had the higher wOBA.
+.084 (L at Hou 5/24) +.074 (L at NY 6/1)
+.049 (L at NY 5/31; MFY's had a +.115 wOBA)
+.037 (L vs Hou 5/17) +.023 (W vs Hou 5/19) +.019 (W at NY 6/2)
-.010 (W at Hou 5/26; Sox had a +.064 wOBA)
-.065 (L at Hou 5/25)
Figuring that we went 6-2 in having both the better xwOBA and the better wOBA, it's kind of hard to see the problem with the talent.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 3, 2019 23:03:05 GMT -5
No one said this isn't a talented team. Just seems like when the Sox do bad, it's all luck. I wonder how that works. Of course the spin around here can turn any numbers into the Sox just being unlucky enough to lose.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 4, 2019 0:31:09 GMT -5
Last thing about this series and the Sox versus the Yankees in 2019 before this thread is buried is this-
The Yankees bullpen has dominated the Sox lineup this year when protecting a lead.
In the three games that the Yankees have a lead by 3 runs or less, the Yankees bullpen has thrown 12 innings and given up ZERO runs against the Red Sox. The Yankees stats in these 12 innings-
10 hits allowed. 4 walks. 13 strikeouts.
This isn't unlucky here. The Yankees bullpen has been a weapon against the Sox all year. The best thing the Sox can do for the rest of the year is get to the Yankees early in games because they haven't scored against their bullpen in a close game while behind. In fact, you're *barely* hitting them.
Add- In both games 1 and 2 in this series, the games were over after the fifth inning.
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