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2019 Draft Signing Period
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 15, 2019 16:44:37 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan511 on Jun 15, 2019 17:20:14 GMT -5
too much money for brock bell
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2019 17:36:05 GMT -5
The heck? That's over double slot for a guy who should of singed for at most slot if not under slot. This is really a head scratcher. If they failed to sign him, they would have lost the slot amount in cap money, but since he signed for over double slot, they lost even more by signing him like this. Perfect Game ranks him fairly high, but he's not even on BA's top 500. Thad Ward was actually the same exact rankings last year, and he signed for way less even though he was picked earlier. I thought they did a really good job saving money on Cannon and Zeferjahn, and it could have gone to guys like Keane, Roberts, or Anu, but nope. It's possible the Sox think they will be able to sign those guys anyways (or that they'll save more money on guys like Song), and at this point they better. Unless the Red Sox and Perfect Game have some information that the MLB and Baseball America don't have (Which would be strange because it's literally the MLB), I think this is a mistake. And I don't think Bell is overrated or a bust, I just think this is way too much money to spend on him.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 15, 2019 17:52:09 GMT -5
The heck? That's over double slot for a guy who should of singed for at most slot if not under slot. This is really a head scratcher. If they failed to sign him, they would have lost the slot amount in cap money, but since he signed for over double slot, they lost even more by signing him like this. Perfect Game ranks him fairly high, but he's not even on BA's top 500. Thad Ward was actually the same exact rankings last year, and he signed for way less even though he was picked earlier. I thought they did a really good job saving money on Cannon and Zeferjahn, and it could have gone to guys like Keane, Roberts, or Anu, but nope. It's possible the Sox think they will be able to sign those guys anyways (or that they'll save more money on guys like Song), and at this point they better. Unless the Red Sox and Perfect Game have some information that the MLB and Baseball America don't have (Which would be strange because it's literally the MLB), I think this is a mistake. And I don't think Bell is overrated or a bust, I just think this is way too much money to spend on him. So how often have you watched him pitch? Probably less than the Red Sox. Draft bonuses and drafting isn't done by consensus.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2019 17:58:33 GMT -5
The heck? That's over double slot for a guy who should of singed for at most slot if not under slot. This is really a head scratcher. If they failed to sign him, they would have lost the slot amount in cap money, but since he signed for over double slot, they lost even more by signing him like this. Perfect Game ranks him fairly high, but he's not even on BA's top 500. Thad Ward was actually the same exact rankings last year, and he signed for way less even though he was picked earlier. I thought they did a really good job saving money on Cannon and Zeferjahn, and it could have gone to guys like Keane, Roberts, or Anu, but nope. It's possible the Sox think they will be able to sign those guys anyways (or that they'll save more money on guys like Song), and at this point they better. Unless the Red Sox and Perfect Game have some information that the MLB and Baseball America don't have (Which would be strange because it's literally the MLB), I think this is a mistake. And I don't think Bell is overrated or a bust, I just think this is way too much money to spend on him. So how often have you watched him pitch? Probably less than the Red Sox. Draft bonuses and drafting isn't done by consensus. As I said, I'm not doubting him, it's just that either he isn't worth the money, or he is worth the money and they should have picked him either in a spot where the slot would about match the money or after the 10th round where the first 125k doesn't count. And also MLB doesn't rank him in the top 200 and BA not in the top 500 and even though PG has him at around 200, he's getting approx. pick 125 money, so there's also that. My point is even if he does turn out to be a decent prospect, the Red Sox could have handled it better.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 15, 2019 18:04:31 GMT -5
So how often have you watched him pitch? Probably less than the Red Sox. Draft bonuses and drafting isn't done by consensus. As I said, I'm not doubting him, it's just that either he isn't worth the money, or he is worth the money and they should have picked him either in a spot where the slot would about match the money or after the 10th round where the first 125k doesn't count. And also MLB doesn't rank him in the top 200 and BA not in the top 500 and even though PG has him at around 200, he's getting approx. pick 125 money, so there's also that. My point is even if he does turn out to be a decent prospect, the Red Sox could have handled it better. We don't know what he was asking for and what the Sox thought he was worth. We also don't know that every team in baseball would have passed on him in the 11th round. The one thing we do know is that the Red Sox have a game plan and this fits within the game plan whatever that may be.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 15, 2019 18:23:28 GMT -5
So how often have you watched him pitch? Probably less than the Red Sox. Draft bonuses and drafting isn't done by consensus. As I said, I'm not doubting him, it's just that either he isn't worth the money, or he is worth the money and they should have picked him either in a spot where the slot would about match the money or after the 10th round where the first 125k doesn't count. And also MLB doesn't rank him in the top 200 and BA not in the top 500 and even though PG has him at around 200, he's getting approx. pick 125 money, so there's also that. My point is even if he does turn out to be a decent prospect, the Red Sox could have handled it better. Unless you know what everyone is THINKING, you have no freaking idea about anything. Neither do any of us.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 15, 2019 18:39:45 GMT -5
Blowing up the cap is still not off the table. There are still several elephants in the room.
Lugo who's pretty clearly worth more than slot, likely comes from money and has a decent school for a baseball career as an alternative.
Song who would be a free agent November 2 years from now.
Keane who isn't going to be cheap.
pretty much all the 12-16 guys who may or may not be more expensive than we think.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2019 18:51:19 GMT -5
Bird -- its fun for us to speculate on the signing bonuses before they occur (or are announced), but at the same time we as fans can't really say who got paid too much or too little. Signing bonuses can kind of be broken down by two main factors: 1) the teams evaluation of the player, and 2) the player's leverage. In Brock Bell's case we're all pretty surprised here but he is a JUCO guy with a commitment to Auburn so he had far more leverage than a college senior (who has essentially none) or even a college junior (who has the opportunity to return to school and have no leverage the next year).
Yeah, none of us saw this coming but none of us can really say he was paid too much without having seen the guy pitch. The exciting element of this news is that the Red Sox clearly like the guy....he's hardly pitched since having TJ surgery but he must have clearly impressed our scouts. Maybe there's something interesting here?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 15, 2019 18:51:23 GMT -5
Blowing up the cap is still not off the table. There are still several elephants in the room. Lugo who's pretty clearly worth more than slot, likely comes from money and has a decent school for a baseball career as an alternative. Song who would be a free agent November 2 years from now. Keane who isn't going to be cheap. pretty much all the 12-16 guys who may or may not be more expensive than we think. I believe Lugo has already signed for $1.1 M. That was reported this week. I have the Sox with $50.5 K remaining on their allotment, but that's before any +/- from Song, Scroggins and/or Scott. So very tentative. It's also before any calculations for the players drafted after the 10th round. Going +5% over their allotment leaves them with $289,905.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 15, 2019 18:54:44 GMT -5
Red Sox officially announce they signed
Dominic D'Alessandro Dylan Spacke Devon Roedahl Dean Miller Leon Paulino Brandon Walter Jacob Herbert
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Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2019 18:55:23 GMT -5
Blowing up the cap is still not off the table. There are still several elephants in the room. Lugo who's pretty clearly worth more than slot, likely comes from money and has a decent school for a baseball career as an alternative. Song who would be a free agent November 2 years from now. Keane who isn't going to be cheap. pretty much all the 12-16 guys who may or may not be more expensive than we think. Not a chance in my mind. If you're going to blow the cap, you draft a ton of Top 200 HS talent types. I'm really impressed by the Sox draft and the talent they drafted, but its not a 'blow the cap' amount of talent that would be worth the penalties.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2019 19:05:06 GMT -5
Bird -- its fun for us to speculate on the signing bonuses before they occur (or are announced), but at the same time we as fans can't really say who got paid too much or too little. Signing bonuses can kind of be broken down by two main factors: 1) the teams evaluation of the player, and 2) the player's leverage. In Brock Bell's case we're all pretty surprised here but he is a JUCO guy with a commitment to Auburn so he had far more leverage than a college senior (who has essentially none) or even a college junior (who has the opportunity to return to school and have no leverage the next year). Yeah, none of us saw this coming but none of us can really say he was paid too much without having seen the guy pitch. The exciting element of this news is that the Red Sox clearly like the guy....he's hardly pitched since having TJ surgery but he must have clearly impressed our scouts. Maybe there's something interesting here? I'm not saying there's nothing interesting here. What I'm saying is that if there is something interesting here, why did they draft him in the 7th round? They gave him more money than Groshans. If they like him more than Groshans, why not draft him in round 5 instead, and draft a senior guy in round 7? If they don't like him that much than why not draft him in the 12th or 13th round if he's still available and save 125k of the cap.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 15, 2019 19:20:01 GMT -5
Bird -- its fun for us to speculate on the signing bonuses before they occur (or are announced), but at the same time we as fans can't really say who got paid too much or too little. Signing bonuses can kind of be broken down by two main factors: 1) the teams evaluation of the player, and 2) the player's leverage. In Brock Bell's case we're all pretty surprised here but he is a JUCO guy with a commitment to Auburn so he had far more leverage than a college senior (who has essentially none) or even a college junior (who has the opportunity to return to school and have no leverage the next year). Yeah, none of us saw this coming but none of us can really say he was paid too much without having seen the guy pitch. The exciting element of this news is that the Red Sox clearly like the guy....he's hardly pitched since having TJ surgery but he must have clearly impressed our scouts. Maybe there's something interesting here? I'm not saying there's nothing interesting here. What I'm saying is that if there is something interesting here, why did they draft him in the 7th round? They gave him more money than Groshans. If they like him more than Groshans, why not draft him in round 5 instead, and draft a senior guy in round 7? If they don't like him that much than why not draft him in the 12th or 13th round if he's still available and save 125k of the cap. That stuff is impossible to know without some sort of linear programming exercise. It's a combination of who they think will go when, what they're worth - to the Red Sox - and how they think they can draft to get the players they like into the mix. To throw a few monkey wrenches into your thinking: they've given more money to lower draftees many times in previous drafts and the idea of waiting another 5 or 6 rounds to draft him is a likely non-starter given that other teams are probably in the hunt. It may frustrate your sense of order, but this stuff happens all the time.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 15, 2019 19:23:17 GMT -5
Blowing up the cap is still not off the table. There are still several elephants in the room. Lugo who's pretty clearly worth more than slot, likely comes from money and has a decent school for a baseball career as an alternative. Song who would be a free agent November 2 years from now. Keane who isn't going to be cheap. pretty much all the 12-16 guys who may or may not be more expensive than we think. Not a chance in my mind. If you're going to blow the cap, you draft a ton of Top 200 HS talent types. I'm really impressed by the Sox draft and the talent they drafted, but its not a 'blow the cap' amount of talent that would be worth the penalties. The reason I think there is still a chance is because of players 11-16 which all have negotiating power and who are significantly better than last year's excellent group. Whether the players added added are worth more than the present value of two likely late first round picks minus the money it would take to sign those picks depends on how the rest of the top 10 work out. If Lugo signs for 1.1m as projected in Norm's link, then that's even less money. Song remains the biggest question mark and I see no compelling reason for him to sign for a low amount. It's not that I think it will happen, I just think it's not off the table and if the Sox were to do that, it likely would be an all at once move.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2019 19:28:28 GMT -5
I'm not saying there's nothing interesting here. What I'm saying is that if there is something interesting here, why did they draft him in the 7th round? They gave him more money than Groshans. If they like him more than Groshans, why not draft him in round 5 instead, and draft a senior guy in round 7? If they don't like him that much than why not draft him in the 12th or 13th round if he's still available and save 125k of the cap. That stuff is impossible to know without some sort of linear programming exercise. It's a combination of who they think will go when, what they're worth - to the Red Sox - and how they think they can draft to get the players they like into the mix. To throw a few monkey wrenches into your thinking: they've given more money to lower draftees many times in previous drafts and the idea of waiting another 5 or 6 rounds to draft him is a likely non-starter given that other teams are probably in the hunt. It may frustrate your sense of order, but this stuff happens all the time. Good point, but I guess my biggest concern here is the domino effect. If Bell gets 465k, doesn't that drive up the amount the 11-16 guys ask? At this point can we sign more than 1 or 2 of them?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 15, 2019 19:34:57 GMT -5
I'm paraphrasing here but a statement that used to be on PG's homepage:
It should be remembered that every team in baseball has a scouting budget that is at least 10 times the budget of all the scouting services combined.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Jun 15, 2019 21:25:05 GMT -5
Bird -- its fun for us to speculate on the signing bonuses before they occur (or are announced), but at the same time we as fans can't really say who got paid too much or too little. Signing bonuses can kind of be broken down by two main factors: 1) the teams evaluation of the player, and 2) the player's leverage. In Brock Bell's case we're all pretty surprised here but he is a JUCO guy with a commitment to Auburn so he had far more leverage than a college senior (who has essentially none) or even a college junior (who has the opportunity to return to school and have no leverage the next year). Yeah, none of us saw this coming but none of us can really say he was paid too much without having seen the guy pitch. The exciting element of this news is that the Red Sox clearly like the guy....he's hardly pitched since having TJ surgery but he must have clearly impressed our scouts. Maybe there's something interesting here? His family probably comes from money, so an education may be very important. Like Trot Nixon who could demand a bigger bonus. This also may of increased his leverage. He may end up being the steal of the draft. Cannon went cheaper and Bell went higher than guessed. The Sox will have the dollars pretty much figured out by now on who will cost what and what are their backup plans if something changes.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Jun 15, 2019 21:30:38 GMT -5
Blowing up the cap is still not off the table. There are still several elephants in the room. Lugo who's pretty clearly worth more than slot, likely comes from money and has a decent school for a baseball career as an alternative. Song who would be a free agent November 2 years from now. Keane who isn't going to be cheap. pretty much all the 12-16 guys who may or may not be more expensive than we think. Not a chance in my mind. If you're going to blow the cap, you draft a ton of Top 200 HS talent types. I'm really impressed by the Sox draft and the talent they drafted, but its not a 'blow the cap' amount of talent that would be worth the penalties. Not the strongest draft to do it.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2019 21:56:18 GMT -5
Sorry, no signing news on Oraj Anu but he's off to quite a start in the Cape Cod League. 2 HRs already, one estimated at 430 ft, the other at 440 ft. Power is legit with that one.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 16, 2019 2:47:53 GMT -5
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 16, 2019 9:47:04 GMT -5
Updated projections Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 2 Cameron Cannon $1,300,000 (Lowell) 2 Matthew Lugo $1,100,000 (Reportedly agreed to terms) 3 Ryan Zeferjahn $500,000 (signed, Lowell) 4 Noah Song $225,000 (planning to sign this week, bonus cloudy like a chopper landing in the desert) 5 Jaxx Gorshans $304,200 (Lowell) 6 Chris Murphy $237,000 (Lowell) 7 Brock Bell $465,000 (GCL) 8 Wil Dalton $135,000 (Lowell) 9 Cody Scroggins $50,000 (still playing in CWS, next game June 17) 10 Stephen Scott $2,500 (still playing in CWS, next game June 16) After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Sebastian Keane $375,000 (decision TBD) 12 Brendan Cellucci $325,000 (decision TBD, going to the Cape) 13 Blake Loubier $350,000 (seeking "aggressive" amount to sign) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 17 Alex Erro (Lowell) 18 Jacob Herbert (GCL) 19 Joe Davis (Lowell) 20 Reed Harrington (likely signing) 21 Dylan Spacke (GCL) 22 Dominic D'Alessandro (GCL) 23 Leon Paulino ($125,000, GCL) 24 Dean Miller (GCL) 25 Karson Simas (likely signing) 26 Brandon Walter (GCL) 28 Daniel Bakst (visited JetBlue on 6/18) 27 Devon Roedahl (GCL) 29 Luke Bandy (Lowell) 36 Caleb Hill (likely signing) Total spent towards cap using these projections: $5,018,700 Red Sox Cap: $4,788,100 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $5,027,505 Projected not to sign14 Jordan Beck 15 Aaron Roberts (playing for PUF Capitalists, collegiate summer team) 16 Oraj Anu (decision TBD, going to the Cape) 30 Nathan Martorella (indicated not signing) 31 Feleipe Franks 32 Bradley Blalock 33 Thayer Thomas 34 Ryan Berardino (indicated not signing) 35 Chris Mauloni 37 Connor Prielipp (indicated not signing) 38 Cameron Meeks (indicated not signing) 39 Sammy Faltine (indicated not signing) 40 Garrett Irvin
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2019 10:40:58 GMT -5
Not a chance in my mind. If you're going to blow the cap, you draft a ton of Top 200 HS talent types. I'm really impressed by the Sox draft and the talent they drafted, but its not a 'blow the cap' amount of talent that would be worth the penalties. The reason I think there is still a chance is because of players 11-16 which all have negotiating power and who are significantly better than last year's excellent group. Whether the players added added are worth more than the present value of two likely late first round picks minus the money it would take to sign those picks depends on how the rest of the top 10 work out. If Lugo signs for 1.1m as projected in Norm's link, then that's even less money. Song remains the biggest question mark and I see no compelling reason for him to sign for a low amount. It's not that I think it will happen, I just think it's not off the table and if the Sox were to do that, it likely would be an all at once move. I can't think of a dumber move than to blow up the cap without drafting a ton more signability guys while drafting several underslot guys. They did not draft nearly enough talent to blow up the cap even if they signed all 40 draft picks.
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 16, 2019 10:53:57 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2019 12:35:30 GMT -5
The reason I think there is still a chance is because of players 11-16 which all have negotiating power and who are significantly better than last year's excellent group. Whether the players added added are worth more than the present value of two likely late first round picks minus the money it would take to sign those picks depends on how the rest of the top 10 work out. If Lugo signs for 1.1m as projected in Norm's link, then that's even less money. Song remains the biggest question mark and I see no compelling reason for him to sign for a low amount. It's not that I think it will happen, I just think it's not off the table and if the Sox were to do that, it likely would be an all at once move. I can't think of a dumber move than to blow up the cap without drafting a ton more signability guys while drafting several underslot guys. They did not draft nearly enough talent to blow up the cap even if they signed all 40 draft picks. Yeah, I think this is correct. Remember, the penalty for going more than 5% over is losing next year's first-round pick. Going more than 10% over is next year's first- and second-round picks. Going more than 15% over, you lose two first-round picks. They did not draft anyone after the 10th round that makes it worth losing next year's first-round pick. Not even in the aggregate. A first-round pick is probably more valuable than every other pick combined based on the rate at which those players develop into major leaguers. To make blowing up the draft cap worth it, you need to sign extra first- and second-round talents with the money. This is why Passan's article said that you basically need to collude with said players ahead of time in order to make it work, as well as hope that nobody calls the players' bluffs and drafts them anyway. The Red Sox drafted exactly zero such players after the fourth round. The value play was taking Song even though he's going to be gone for two years. Being in their position (pending the bonus), that was a very smart move. That's a much better gamble than risking next year's first-round pick (or more)—which, by the way, would be pick 19 if the season ended today, so we can't assume it's in the 30s again...—to sign one or two more of the high school guys they took.
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