SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2019 Draft Signing Period
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 16, 2019 13:08:27 GMT -5
Maybe the part I'm not seeing is the part where Song is a value pick. True, the two year commitment makes him worth less than he otherwise would have gotten but on the other hand, if he doesn't sign, he'd be a free agent in Nov. 2021 and wouldn't be subject to draft limitations and wouldn't have pitched any more or any less.
Exactly what is the compelling reason for him to sign with the Sox, even for slot ?
|
|
|
Post by brockholtsuperstar on Jun 16, 2019 14:38:45 GMT -5
Maybe the part I'm not seeing is the part where Song is a value pick. True, the two year commitment makes him worth less than he otherwise would have gotten but on the other hand, if he doesn't sign, he'd be a free agent in Nov. 2021 and wouldn't be subject to draft limitations and wouldn't have pitched any more or any less. Exactly what is the compelling reason for him to sign with the Sox, even for slot ? Getting him in the fourth round is a value because you otherwise would have had to use a second round pick on him (without the commitment). And drafting him means you get to have much better communication with him over the next two years and you won't have to compete with every other team who wants to sign him in 2021.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 16, 2019 15:00:55 GMT -5
Maybe the part I'm not seeing is the part where Song is a value pick. True, the two year commitment makes him worth less than he otherwise would have gotten but on the other hand, if he doesn't sign, he'd be a free agent in Nov. 2021 and wouldn't be subject to draft limitations and wouldn't have pitched any more or any less. Exactly what is the compelling reason for him to sign with the Sox, even for slot ? Getting him in the fourth round is a value because you otherwise would have had to use a second round pick on him (without the commitment). And drafting him means you get to have much better communication with him over the next two years and you won't have to compete with every other team who wants to sign him in 2021. And he would be compelled to sign with the Sox because going two years without pitching certainly doesn't increase his value, which it seems you think it does, and at least having access to the Red Sox's resources and communication with the staff along with the certainty of having that contract is valuable in case he gets hurt.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 16, 2019 15:33:45 GMT -5
Getting him in the fourth round is a value because you otherwise would have had to use a second round pick on him (without the commitment). And drafting him means you get to have much better communication with him over the next two years and you won't have to compete with every other team who wants to sign him in 2021. And he would be compelled to sign with the Sox because going two years without pitching certainly doesn't increase his value, which it seems you think it does, and at least having access to the Red Sox's resources and communication with the staff along with the certainty of having that contract is valuable in case he gets hurt. For part A, yes a value pick in the sense that he's a first or second round talent that slipped to the 4th because of his situation and will be less than his situation would have been otherwise, however, I still don't see a reason for him to want to sign for $406k. The communication only holds true if he signs. If he doesn't sign, he's a free agent with a job that doesn't involve flipping hamburgers. Agree that his draft value wouldn't go up but we are talking free agent versus draftee. How much do you think he'd get right now if he was a free agent and didn't count against the draft cap ? That's the real competition for his services, the present value of a future free agency. As to part B, He isn't likely to be doing much pitching during his military time and as far as this summer goes, he could pitch in the Cape Cod League if he wanted. There's no guarantees here if he gets hurt other than the initial money, it's not a salary, it's a signing bonus which might be another reason to want a higher bonus than 406. As Mike keeps saying, this one is pretty cloudy, there's never been a military graduate that has been picked this high so there's no precedents to hang your hat on.
|
|
|
Post by aboynamedkimandrew on Jun 16, 2019 16:40:04 GMT -5
So how often have you watched him pitch? Probably less than the Red Sox. Draft bonuses and drafting isn't done by consensus. As I said, I'm not doubting him, it's just that either he isn't worth the money, or he is worth the money and they should have picked him either in a spot where the slot would about match the money or after the 10th round where the first 125k doesn't count. And also MLB doesn't rank him in the top 200 and BA not in the top 500 and even though PG has him at around 200, he's getting approx. pick 125 money, so there's also that. My point is even if he does turn out to be a decent prospect, the Red Sox could have handled it better. The "we should have drafted him in the later rounds where the first $125K doesn't count" is incorrect unless the guy you want to swap from the later round to the cap round would sign for no bonus. That's not likely for guys a team like the Sox will take in rounds 11-14 - signability issues but a decent chance to sign. For and example where it works well: Suppose your 8th round pick has a $175K slot but will cost $400K to sign. If your potential 11th round pick will sign for $10K, the total cost will be $410K and the total cost against the cap will be $400K if you take them as intended. However, if you swap those picks the total cost is still $410K but the cap cost is $285K so you've got another $115K. Of course, you risk not getting the guy you've targeted as a $400K value in the 11th round. However, if your 11th round guy is likely to cost $250K then the total cost either way is $650K and the cost against the cap is $525K regardless of which you take in the 8th and 11th rounds. Lastly, you could just put a senior sign or a late round prospect in the 8th slot to ensure it's a sub-$125K sign but now your 8th round pick goes to 11 while all of your other post-10 picks get pushed back one round. It's even more likely you won't get some of those that you've targeted. The team must balance how many savings picks it needs in rounds 7-10 against the loss of access to the prospects they want. In this draft it seems clear that the Sox went for savings in round 10. Round 9 is a question. The picks in rounds 7 and 8 were obviously guys they wanted and felt they couldn't wait to take (although they did save a little on round 8).
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 16, 2019 17:17:38 GMT -5
Sebastian Keane wraps up his HS career Tuesday night pitching the state championship game.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 16, 2019 20:12:25 GMT -5
Sebastian Keane wraps up his HS career Tuesday night pitching the state championship game. Inked Bell already, just need Sebastian.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2019 21:01:28 GMT -5
And he would be compelled to sign with the Sox because going two years without pitching certainly doesn't increase his value, which it seems you think it does, and at least having access to the Red Sox's resources and communication with the staff along with the certainty of having that contract is valuable in case he gets hurt. For part A, yes a value pick in the sense that he's a first or second round talent that slipped to the 4th because of his situation and will be less than his situation would have been otherwise, however, I still don't see a reason for him to want to sign for $406k. The communication only holds true if he signs. If he doesn't sign, he's a free agent with a job that doesn't involve flipping hamburgers. Agree that his draft value wouldn't go up but we are talking free agent versus draftee. How much do you think he'd get right now if he was a free agent and didn't count against the draft cap ? That's the real competition for his services, the present value of a future free agency. As to part B, He isn't likely to be doing much pitching during his military time and as far as this summer goes, he could pitch in the Cape Cod League if he wanted. There's no guarantees here if he gets hurt other than the initial money, it's not a salary, it's a signing bonus which might be another reason to want a higher bonus than 406. As Mike keeps saying, this one is pretty cloudy, there's never been a military graduate that has been picked this high so there's no precedents to hang your hat on. When I said "value pick," I meant they got an early second-round talent in the fourth. Didn't mean bonus, which I agree is extremely cloudy. No argument from me on that. On the bonus speculation, he's like any college senior in that he has almost no leverage. He has even less because it's not like he can go play indy ball for a year like Paxton did. He's not going to pitch for 2 years. It's entirely possible he comes back and isn't nearly as good. There's a lot of downside to not signing for him. There is a ton of risk for both sides... which is why he was a great fit for the Red Sox this year given their circumstances, in that they can accept that risk in an attempt to gamble to make their limited pool stretch further.
|
|
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
|
Post by alnipper on Jun 17, 2019 11:02:12 GMT -5
For part A, yes a value pick in the sense that he's a first or second round talent that slipped to the 4th because of his situation and will be less than his situation would have been otherwise, however, I still don't see a reason for him to want to sign for $406k. The communication only holds true if he signs. If he doesn't sign, he's a free agent with a job that doesn't involve flipping hamburgers. Agree that his draft value wouldn't go up but we are talking free agent versus draftee. How much do you think he'd get right now if he was a free agent and didn't count against the draft cap ? That's the real competition for his services, the present value of a future free agency. As to part B, He isn't likely to be doing much pitching during his military time and as far as this summer goes, he could pitch in the Cape Cod League if he wanted. There's no guarantees here if he gets hurt other than the initial money, it's not a salary, it's a signing bonus which might be another reason to want a higher bonus than 406. As Mike keeps saying, this one is pretty cloudy, there's never been a military graduate that has been picked this high so there's no precedents to hang your hat on. When I said "value pick," I meant they got an early second-round talent in the fourth. Didn't mean bonus, which I agree is extremely cloudy. No argument from me on that. On the bonus speculation, he's like any college senior in that he has almost no leverage. He has even less because it's not like he can go play indy ball for a year like Paxton did. He's not going to pitch for 2 years. It's entirely possible he comes back and isn't nearly as good. There's a lot of downside to not signing for him. There is a ton of risk for both sides... which is why he was a great fit for the Red Sox this year given their circumstances, in that they can accept that risk in an attempt to gamble to make their limited pool stretch further. If I were Song I would sign for around 500k. At his age he can buy a house, get married, and buy a car while in the military salary. He did say he wants first or second round money, so I think Mike's prediction will be low. As pointed out he could be signed by any team in two years. ALL 32 teams will want him. Most will offer 7 figures in my opinion. If he is in the Navy for two more years he can still stay in baseball shape. My brother played on teams while in the Air Force academy. Song can still pick up a baseball and workout everyday. The biggest difference might be coaching and competition. Injury risk is a huge reason for him to sign and financial comfort. I hope we sign him and Keane! Anything else afterwards would be nice lottery picks.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 17, 2019 11:27:22 GMT -5
When I said "value pick," I meant they got an early second-round talent in the fourth. Didn't mean bonus, which I agree is extremely cloudy. No argument from me on that. On the bonus speculation, he's like any college senior in that he has almost no leverage. He has even less because it's not like he can go play indy ball for a year like Paxton did. He's not going to pitch for 2 years. It's entirely possible he comes back and isn't nearly as good. There's a lot of downside to not signing for him. There is a ton of risk for both sides... which is why he was a great fit for the Red Sox this year given their circumstances, in that they can accept that risk in an attempt to gamble to make their limited pool stretch further. If I were Song I would sign for around 500k. At his age he can buy a house, get married, and buy a car while in the military salary. He did say he wants first or second round money, so I think Mike's prediction will be low. As pointed out he could be signed by any team in two years. ALL 32 teams will want him. Most will offer 7 figures in my opinion. If he is in the Navy for two more years he can still stay in baseball shape. My brother played on teams while in the Air Force academy. Song can still pick up a baseball and workout everyday. The biggest difference might be coaching and competition. Injury risk is a huge reason for him to sign and financial comfort. I hope we sign him and Keane! Anything else afterwards would be nice lottery picks. He wanted first or second round money last year, not this year. That's an important caveat, because the point was that he needed to pay back his scholarship if he left early (remember, tuition is free in exchange for the service commitment). He also didn't seem too eager to leave early anyway.
|
|
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
|
Post by alnipper on Jun 17, 2019 12:02:55 GMT -5
If I were Song I would sign for around 500k. At his age he can buy a house, get married, and buy a car while in the military salary. He did say he wants first or second round money, so I think Mike's prediction will be low. As pointed out he could be signed by any team in two years. ALL 32 teams will want him. Most will offer 7 figures in my opinion. If he is in the Navy for two more years he can still stay in baseball shape. My brother played on teams while in the Air Force academy. Song can still pick up a baseball and workout everyday. The biggest difference might be coaching and competition. Injury risk is a huge reason for him to sign and financial comfort. I hope we sign him and Keane! Anything else afterwards would be nice lottery picks. He wanted first or second round money last year, not this year. That's an important caveat, because the point was that he needed to pay back his scholarship if he left early (remember, tuition is free in exchange for the service commitment). He also didn't seem too eager to leave early anyway. That is a huge difference that the demand was from last year! A lower signing bonus makes more sense now.
|
|
|
Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 17, 2019 12:32:22 GMT -5
Note - it was recently discovered that the draft signing deadline is Friday, July 12 at 5:00 pm. Found the date in an official MLB document rather than relying on a third party report. It was previously reported as July 15.
|
|
|
Post by soxinnj on Jun 17, 2019 13:24:43 GMT -5
does anybody know what Chris Murphy signed for out of San Diego in the 6th round? I'm trying to figure out how it will be at all possible to get Keane or any of the other guys extra money if they demand it because my records only show a savings of around $55,500 on rounds 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 8....hopefully they save between $150,000 and $200,000 in rounds 9 and 10...who knows about round 4....but they will need to have close to $500,000 in combined extra pool money if they are looking to sign 3 or 4 of these post-round 10 guys, no?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 17, 2019 13:34:16 GMT -5
As far as I'm aware he hasn't signed. Spinners jumped the gun putting him on the roster.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 17, 2019 13:42:46 GMT -5
As far as I'm aware he hasn't signed. Spinners jumped the gun putting him on the roster. He is listed as officially signing on the 12th, per the Red Sox transactions page. Not sure if that was in error. Either way, haven't heard anything on his bonus.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 17, 2019 14:28:32 GMT -5
As far as I'm aware he hasn't signed. Spinners jumped the gun putting him on the roster. He is listed as officially signing on the 12th, per the Red Sox transactions page. Not sure if that was in error. Either way, haven't heard anything on his bonus. Hm. They haven't put him in either of the releases. He'll probably be in the coming ones.
|
|
|
Post by mckeonam on Jun 17, 2019 14:50:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 17, 2019 15:25:34 GMT -5
Now that looks like a violent delivery even without seeing the motion.
|
|
bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
|
Post by bosox on Jun 17, 2019 15:39:48 GMT -5
Now that looks like a violent delivery even without seeing the motion. Interesting delivery indeed.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jun 17, 2019 15:52:22 GMT -5
Now that looks like a violent delivery even without seeing the motion. Interesting delivery indeed. He's pitching to Red Sox draftee Wil Dalton there.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2019 16:16:47 GMT -5
Isn't this early for a UDFA? Sox must have meant to draft him or something.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2019 16:25:15 GMT -5
Updated signing and bonus projections:
Cannon: 1.3M (Signed) Lugo: 1.1M (Reported) Zeferjahn: 500k (Signed) Song: 375k Groshans: 304.2k (Signed) Murphy: 237k Bell: 465k (Signed) Dalton: 135k (Signed) Scroggins: 20k Scott: 5k Keane: 375k (250k towards cap) Cellucci: 200k (75k towards cap) Loubier: Unsigned Beck: Unsigned Roberts: 250k (125k towards cap) Anu: 200k (75k towards cap) Erro: 125k Herbert: 125k Davis: 80k Harrington: 75k Spacke: 125k D'Alessandro: 50k Paulino: 125k (Reported) Miller: 75k Simas: 50k Walter: 25k Roedahl: 140k (15k towards cap) Bakst: 145k (20k towards cap) Bandy: 150k (25k towards cap) Martorella: Unsigned Franks: Unsigned Blalock: Unsigned Thomas: Unsigned Berardino: Unsigned Mauloni: 40k Hill: 10k Prielipp: Unsigned Meeks: Unsigned Faltine: Unsigned Irvin: Unsigned
Total Cap: 5,026,200 out of 5,027,505
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Jun 17, 2019 16:42:38 GMT -5
Interesting delivery indeed. He's pitching to Red Sox draftee Wil Dalton there. Pure funk.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,376
|
Post by cdj on Jun 17, 2019 16:55:18 GMT -5
Delivery Reminds me of Sergio Romo
Should be able to get lower level righties out w that funk alone
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jun 17, 2019 17:02:05 GMT -5
Updated signing and bonus projections: Cannon: 1.3M (Signed) Lugo: 1.1M (Reported) Zeferjahn: 500k (Signed) Song: 375k Groshans: 304.2k (Signed) Murphy: 237k Bell: 465k (Signed) Dalton: 135k (Signed) Scroggins: 20k Scott: 5k Keane: 375k (250k towards cap) Cellucci: 200k (75k towards cap) Loubier: Unsigned Beck: Unsigned Roberts: 250k (125k towards cap) Anu: 200k (75k towards cap) Erro: 125k Herbert: 125k Davis: 80k Harrington: 75k Spacke: 125k D'Alessandro: 50k Paulino: 125k (Reported) Miller: 75k Simas: 50k Walter: 25k Roedahl: 140k (15k towards cap) Bakst: 145k (20k towards cap) Bandy: 150k (25k towards cap) Martorella: Unsigned Franks: Unsigned Blalock: Unsigned Thomas: Unsigned Berardino: Unsigned Mauloni: 40k Hill: 10k Prielipp: Unsigned Meeks: Unsigned Faltine: Unsigned Irvin: Unsigned Total Cap: 5,026,200 out of 5,027,505 No way they offer Bakst more than $125k. I would be completely mind blown if Roedahl or Bandy signed for more than $125k.
|
|
|