Post by ramireja on Jun 23, 2019 14:50:18 GMT -5
In advance of the GCL season beginning tomorrow, I'm starting up a Matthew Lugo thread. I'm pretty stoked about this pick especially considering where he was drafted (#69) and that he didn't require a silly overslot bonus -- $1.1M is a very reasonable bonus at this draft position for a guy with his pedigree.
The 2019 draft was loaded with prep SS talent. Take the table below with a grain salt....I'm a little skeptical of Perfect Game data but I found the following interesting and hopefully you will too. This table includes Lugo and the HS shortstops selected ahead of him in the draft. The data includes the following variables tracked by PG including best 60 yard dash time (i.e., speed), first 10-yard split (i.e., initial speed, important for range), IF arm velo, exit velocity, maximum barrel speed, impact momentum, and maximum acceleration (i.e., how quickly one reaches max bat speed). The top three for each category are bolded or top four where there was a tie. Again, this is a table to get a sense of tools.....we know tools only go so far in the game so we'll have to see how the tools translate to performance but the following looks pretty promising:
Note a few other HS guys drafted as SS not listed here: Keoni Cavaco (MIN - #13, $4.05M) and Yordys Valdes (CLE - #63, $1.00M) didn't have enough PG data to include here. Rece Hinds (CIN - #49, $1.80) is likely a 3B or OF long term so I left him off this list.
Thoughts: Witt Jr. is a stud and there's a reason why he was the #2 pick overall and given the second highest bonus of all time. His tools are off the charts. Lugo though, despite being drafted after all of these guys (and signed for less), has a pretty impressive set of tools himself. He ranks among the top 3 in most batspeed/power metrics, with a strong enough arm and flashing some speed too (particularly his 10 SPL time). In fact, outside of Witt Jr., Lugo is the only other guy listed here in the 85th percentile or better for each metric (although Abrams was damn close with slightly better metrics than Lugo in more categories). So basically, outside of the top of the 1st round type picks (Witt Jr. & Abrams), I'm not sure there is a HS SS drafted with a better collection of tools than Lugo. Again, we'll see how this all translates on the field. He's young and we need to patient but there may be a lot to like here.
The 2019 draft was loaded with prep SS talent. Take the table below with a grain salt....I'm a little skeptical of Perfect Game data but I found the following interesting and hopefully you will too. This table includes Lugo and the HS shortstops selected ahead of him in the draft. The data includes the following variables tracked by PG including best 60 yard dash time (i.e., speed), first 10-yard split (i.e., initial speed, important for range), IF arm velo, exit velocity, maximum barrel speed, impact momentum, and maximum acceleration (i.e., how quickly one reaches max bat speed). The top three for each category are bolded or top four where there was a tie. Again, this is a table to get a sense of tools.....we know tools only go so far in the game so we'll have to see how the tools translate to performance but the following looks pretty promising:
Name | Team | Pick# | Bonus | 60 (Sec) | 10 SPL (Sec) | IF Arm (MPH) | Exit Velo (MPH) | Max Barrel (MPH) | Impact Momentum | Max Accel. (Gs) |
Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | #2 | $7.79M | 6.40 | 1.54 | 92 | 100 | 83.48 | 31.65 | 53.22 |
C.J. Abrams | SDP | #6 | $5.20M | 6.29 | 1.49 | 91 | 93 | 72.82 | 26.57 | 41.76 |
Anthony Volpe | NYY | #30 | $2.74M | 6.62 | 1.63 | 87 | 91 | 62.36 | 23.24 | 29.86 |
Gunnar Henderson | BAL | #42 | $2.30M | 6.87 | 1.62 | 90 | 93 | 64.79 | 24.19 | 42.97 |
Nasim Nunez | MIA | #46 | $2.20M | 6.28 | 1.48 | 95 | 90 | 72.10 | 26.30 | 37.41 |
Kyren Paris | LAA | #55 | $1.40M | 6.82 | 1.71 | 86 | 91 | 67.37 | 24.20 | 37.33 |
Matthew Lugo | BOS | #69 | $1.10M | 6.46 | 1.53 | 90 | 95 | 72.65 | 26.63 | 40.71 |
Note a few other HS guys drafted as SS not listed here: Keoni Cavaco (MIN - #13, $4.05M) and Yordys Valdes (CLE - #63, $1.00M) didn't have enough PG data to include here. Rece Hinds (CIN - #49, $1.80) is likely a 3B or OF long term so I left him off this list.
Thoughts: Witt Jr. is a stud and there's a reason why he was the #2 pick overall and given the second highest bonus of all time. His tools are off the charts. Lugo though, despite being drafted after all of these guys (and signed for less), has a pretty impressive set of tools himself. He ranks among the top 3 in most batspeed/power metrics, with a strong enough arm and flashing some speed too (particularly his 10 SPL time). In fact, outside of Witt Jr., Lugo is the only other guy listed here in the 85th percentile or better for each metric (although Abrams was damn close with slightly better metrics than Lugo in more categories). So basically, outside of the top of the 1st round type picks (Witt Jr. & Abrams), I'm not sure there is a HS SS drafted with a better collection of tools than Lugo. Again, we'll see how this all translates on the field. He's young and we need to patient but there may be a lot to like here.