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7/2-7/4 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2019 14:25:14 GMT -5
They did get a lot of money. Mookie Betts is also better than those players, other teams will value him better than those players. They got a lot less than everyone thought. There is no scenario where the Red Sox can't sign him. There is no scenario where the Red Sox shouldn't sign him. And there is no scenario where the Red Sox should trade him, making it harder if not impossible to sign him. There's also no scenario where John Henry should be selling a contract as good as Manny Ramirez. There's also no scenario where the Red Sox should stop spending on a team fresh off a world series. There's also no scenario when John Henry should walk to a negotiating table to Jon Lester and offer 70 million as your first offer, when he offered double that much a year later yo Lester. This owner is the exact reason why you should question keeping Betts long-term.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 14:26:38 GMT -5
Yeah and since all those things happened, he hired Dave Dombrowski to make sure it doesn't happen again.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 14:28:27 GMT -5
I talked to one college coach I know who said Betts is letting the ball travel deeper into the zone than last year, resulting in many fewer pulled balls, and, ultimately, fewer HRs. FWIW Yeah, Betts doesn't have great natural power, so for him to have a season like he did last year, he has to keep his batted ball profile really tightly optimized. Again I think this is where some of the Statcast stuff has us screwed up, because we saw that extreme optimization happen last year, and we could quantify it, and by doing so justifying it as being "real".
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2019 14:31:02 GMT -5
Yeah and since all those things happened, he hired Dave Dombrowski to make sure it doesn't happen again. He hired Dombrowski to maximize to win with the talent he was given, nothing more, nothing less. John Henry dictates what he spends his money on and has also been against long-term contracts in the past. You can't spend more than 5 million dollars kb this roster right now with Dave Dombrowski running the team because of John Henry.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 14:31:05 GMT -5
I talked to one college coach I know who said Betts is letting the ball travel deeper into the zone than last year, resulting in many fewer pulled balls, and, ultimately, fewer HRs. FWIW Yeah, Betts doesn't have great natural power, so for him to have a season like he did last year, he has to keep his batted ball profile really tightly optimized. Again I think this is where some of the Statcast stuff has us screwed up, because we saw that extreme optimization happen last year, and we could quantify it, and by doing so justifying it as being "real". This is why Devers is going to be a better hitter. What is concerning to me about Mookie is how badly his base running and defense have regressed. Hopefully it's just a bad year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 14:31:40 GMT -5
Yeah and since all those things happened, he hired Dave Dombrowski to make sure it doesn't happen again. He hired Dombrowski to maximize to win with the talent he was given, nothing more, nothing less. John Henry dictates what he spends money on and has also been against long-term contracts in the past. You can't spend more than 5 million dollars kb this roster right now with Dave Dombrowski running the team because of John Henry. If Mookie wanted to sign now, they'd sign him now. John Henry is against long term contracts like Price?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2019 14:34:33 GMT -5
He hired Dombrowski to maximize to win with the talent he was given, nothing more, nothing less. John Henry dictates what he spends money on and has also been against long-term contracts in the past. You can't spend more than 5 million dollars kb this roster right now with Dave Dombrowski running the team because of John Henry. If Mookie wanted to sign now, they'd sign him now. Disagree. Completely. The Sox haven't proven to offer the 300+ million dollars yet, and it's COMPLETELY REASONABLE to expect that they won't go there based on Henry's past spending habits and behavior.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 14:36:09 GMT -5
Well I completely disagree with you.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2019 14:37:46 GMT -5
He hired Dombrowski to maximize to win with the talent he was given, nothing more, nothing less. John Henry dictates what he spends money on and has also been against long-term contracts in the past. You can't spend more than 5 million dollars kb this roster right now with Dave Dombrowski running the team because of John Henry. John Henry is against long term contracts like Price? David Price was worth over 200 million, which is the highest amount he's ever given to a player by about 60 million dollars in his time here.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 14:44:52 GMT -5
John Henry is against long term contracts like Price? David Price was worth over 200 million, which is the highest amount he's ever given to a player by about 60 million dollars in his time here. Right, because building through free agency is generally stupid.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2019 14:53:17 GMT -5
David Price was worth over 200 million, which is the highest amount he's ever given to a player by about 60 million dollars in his time here. Right, because building through free agency is generally stupid. That's the exact thing John Henry will say when he doesn't pay Mookie, too.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 5, 2019 14:53:26 GMT -5
No one: Alex Cora:
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 15:01:25 GMT -5
Yeah, Betts doesn't have great natural power, so for him to have a season like he did last year, he has to keep his batted ball profile really tightly optimized. Again I think this is where some of the Statcast stuff has us screwed up, because we saw that extreme optimization happen last year, and we could quantify it, and by doing so justifying it as being "real". This is why Devers is going to be a better hitter. What is concerning to me about Mookie is how badly his base running and defense have regressed. Hopefully it's just a bad year. As to Devers... maybe. But Mookie's power isn't THAT much worse than Devers, and his contact skills are far better. Contact is one of those skills that tends to only get worse as a player ages, which along with his overall superior athleticism, tends to predict a longer career for Betts. To the baseunning and defense, I'm not sure what you're looking at, but I don't see a huge difference. The speed is falling off a little bit, but right in line with what you'd expect from a normal aging curve. Per Statcast, he's been the 26th fastest player of his age for the last three years running. Again, you want to worry about someone, worry about Benny. He's showing some of the worst exit velos of his career in a year when everyone's exit velos are up because of the ball. His speed also also fallen off more noticeably, and his contact has been much worse than career norms. He's the guy I'm seeing genuine red flags on.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 5, 2019 15:17:29 GMT -5
This is why Devers is going to be a better hitter. What is concerning to me about Mookie is how badly his base running and defense have regressed. Hopefully it's just a bad year. As to Devers... maybe. But Mookie's power isn't THAT much worse than Devers, and his contact skills are far better. Contact is one of those skills that tends to only get worse as a player ages, which along with his overall superior athleticism, tends to predict a longer career for Betts. To the baseunning and defense, I'm not sure what you're looking at, but I don't see a huge difference. The speed is falling off a little bit, but right in line with what you'd expect from a normal aging curve. Per Statcast, he's been the 26th fastest player of his age for the last three years running. Again, you want to worry about someone, worry about Benny. He's showing some of the worst exit velos of his career in a year when everyone's exit velos are up because of the ball. His speed also also fallen off more noticeably, and his contact has been much worse than career norms. He's the guy I'm seeing genuine red flags on. It's the hair. He needs to grow back the hair.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 5, 2019 15:21:23 GMT -5
As to Devers... maybe. But Mookie's power isn't THAT much worse than Devers, and his contact skills are far better. Contact is one of those skills that tends to only get worse as a player ages, which along with his overall superior athleticism, tends to predict a longer career for Betts. To the baseunning and defense, I'm not sure what you're looking at, but I don't see a huge difference. The speed is falling off a little bit, but right in line with what you'd expect from a normal aging curve. Per Statcast, he's been the 26th fastest player of his age for the last three years running. Again, you want to worry about someone, worry about Benny. He's showing some of the worst exit velos of his career in a year when everyone's exit velos are up because of the ball. His speed also also fallen off more noticeably, and his contact has been much worse than career norms. He's the guy I'm seeing genuine red flags on. It's the hair. He needs to grow back the hair. Ahh, the Samson defense.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2019 15:36:31 GMT -5
They did get a lot of money. Mookie Betts is also better than those players, other teams will value him better than those players. They got a lot less than everyone thought. There is no scenario where the Red Sox can't sign him. There is no scenario where the Red Sox shouldn't sign him. And there is no scenario where the Red Sox should trade him, making it harder if not impossible to sign him. John Henry isn't Jean Yawkey, who let Carlton Fisk, Roger Clemens and Wade Boggs leave because they were too cheap to keep them.The Red Sox sign who they want to sign just about every time now. Even when it's not smart, they don't get outbid. See Price and Sandoval. It wasn't Jean Yawkey that let Fisk, Clemens, and Boggs leave. Haywood Sullivan made sure that Fisk didn't come back by purposing neglecting to mail him his 1981 contract in time. Wade Boggs has said that he had a verbal agreement with Jean Yawkey on a 5 year deal to remain with the Red Sox in the winter of 91-92 beyond his 1992 expiring contract, but Jean Yawkey had a stroke in early 1992 and that was the end of that. Boggs had a horrible year in 1992 and Gorman let him walk. Roger Clemens left after sparring with Dan Duquette after 1996 ended. Jean Yawkey had already been dead for 4 years so she had nothing to do with this. I think the Red Sox will go all out to sign Betts but it's not like they can guarantee they'll be the highest bidders. And of course Betts says he loves Boston. What is he supposed to do? Go all Kyrie Irving on us? It's not hard to see that with Betts not having a season as good as 2018 or 2016 that the Sox might not view him quite in the Trout stratosphere where Mookie might think he should be getting really close to Trout money. I don't expect the Sox to treat Betts like Jon Lester and lowball him but it's not hard to see a scenario where they disagree on his worth, and if another big pocketed team gets involved anything can happen. As it was the Sox were outbid by the Yankees for Teixeira 10 years ago, so who knows if another team gets motivated enough to give Mookie Trout-like money? 2020 will be a huge season for Mookie to see if that's where his value is most likely to wind up. One thing that was interesting to me as I did some summer reading was re-reading David Ortiz's book in which he complained that the Red Sox had a penchant for overspending on another team's free agent but not going all out for their own free agents. Maybe with Dombrowski in charge instead of Theo, that's changing as Sale and Xander do have contract extensions, so maybe they're changing here. The thing is I can't assume the Red Sox are going to re-sign Betts, but I can't assume that they won't either. They will have a chance. We'll just see how badly they want to.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2019 16:51:23 GMT -5
They got a lot less than everyone thought. There is no scenario where the Red Sox can't sign him. There is no scenario where the Red Sox shouldn't sign him. And there is no scenario where the Red Sox should trade him, making it harder if not impossible to sign him. John Henry isn't Jean Yawkey, who let Carlton Fisk, Roger Clemens and Wade Boggs leave because they were too cheap to keep them.The Red Sox sign who they want to sign just about every time now. Even when it's not smart, they don't get outbid. See Price and Sandoval. It wasn't Jean Yawkey that let Fisk, Clemens, and Boggs leave. Haywood Sullivan made sure that Fisk didn't come back by purposing neglecting to mail him his 1981 contract in time. Wade Boggs has said that he had a verbal agreement with Jean Yawkey on a 5 year deal to remain with the Red Sox in the winter of 91-92 beyond his 1992 expiring contract, but Jean Yawkey had a stroke in early 1992 and that was the end of that. Boggs had a horrible year in 1992 and Gorman let him walk. Roger Clemens left after sparring with Dan Duquette after 1996 ended. Jean Yawkey had already been dead for 4 years so she had nothing to do with this. I think the Red Sox will go all out to sign Betts but it's not like they can guarantee they'll be the highest bidders. And of course Betts says he loves Boston. What is he supposed to do? Go all Kyrie Irving on us? It's not hard to see that with Betts not having a season as good as 2018 or 2016 that the Sox might not view him quite in the Trout stratosphere where Mookie might think he should be getting really close to Trout money. I don't expect the Sox to treat Betts like Jon Lester and lowball him but it's not hard to see a scenario where they disagree on his worth, and if another big pocketed team gets involved anything can happen. As it was the Sox were outbid by the Yankees for Teixeira 10 years ago, so who knows if another team gets motivated enough to give Mookie Trout-like money? 2020 will be a huge season for Mookie to see if that's where his value is most likely to wind up. One thing that was interesting to me as I did some summer reading was re-reading David Ortiz's book in which he complained that the Red Sox had a penchant for overspending on another team's free agent but not going all out for their own free agents. Maybe with Dombrowski in charge instead of Theo, that's changing as Sale and Xander do have contract extensions, so maybe they're changing here. The thing is I can't assume the Red Sox are going to re-sign Betts, but I can't assume that they won't either. They will have a chance. We'll just see how badly they want to. No team is going to give Mookie a Trout contract if he doesn't have another year like last year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2019 17:07:44 GMT -5
It wasn't Jean Yawkey that let Fisk, Clemens, and Boggs leave. Haywood Sullivan made sure that Fisk didn't come back by purposing neglecting to mail him his 1981 contract in time. Wade Boggs has said that he had a verbal agreement with Jean Yawkey on a 5 year deal to remain with the Red Sox in the winter of 91-92 beyond his 1992 expiring contract, but Jean Yawkey had a stroke in early 1992 and that was the end of that. Boggs had a horrible year in 1992 and Gorman let him walk. Roger Clemens left after sparring with Dan Duquette after 1996 ended. Jean Yawkey had already been dead for 4 years so she had nothing to do with this. I think the Red Sox will go all out to sign Betts but it's not like they can guarantee they'll be the highest bidders. And of course Betts says he loves Boston. What is he supposed to do? Go all Kyrie Irving on us? It's not hard to see that with Betts not having a season as good as 2018 or 2016 that the Sox might not view him quite in the Trout stratosphere where Mookie might think he should be getting really close to Trout money. I don't expect the Sox to treat Betts like Jon Lester and lowball him but it's not hard to see a scenario where they disagree on his worth, and if another big pocketed team gets involved anything can happen. As it was the Sox were outbid by the Yankees for Teixeira 10 years ago, so who knows if another team gets motivated enough to give Mookie Trout-like money? 2020 will be a huge season for Mookie to see if that's where his value is most likely to wind up. One thing that was interesting to me as I did some summer reading was re-reading David Ortiz's book in which he complained that the Red Sox had a penchant for overspending on another team's free agent but not going all out for their own free agents. Maybe with Dombrowski in charge instead of Theo, that's changing as Sale and Xander do have contract extensions, so maybe they're changing here. The thing is I can't assume the Red Sox are going to re-sign Betts, but I can't assume that they won't either. They will have a chance. We'll just see how badly they want to. No team is going to give Mookie a Trout contract if he doesn't have another year like last year. Probably not, but you never quite know for sure. My bigger question is what if Betts repeats the year he is having this year next year? What is that worth on the open market? > 30 milion/year? Would it be seen as the start of a decline and how long would the contract be? There could be a divergent opinion among other interested teams.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 6, 2019 0:16:34 GMT -5
I mean, do you think this year is disappointing ? I wouldn't call his season disappointing in a vacuum, he's playing very well. But given his pending free agency and what we can roughly assume his asking price will be I'd prefer if he put up numbers that made retaining him more of a no-brainer. its not disappointing in the sense that has fallen off a cliff, but this isn't the year the anyone would have expected coming off of last year. He (and JD) were the major reasons they won the world series. That is fine to me, he is a baseball player, it is a tough job. i just think it isn't uinfair to say it has been disappointing (understanding the bar was set so high), and that was the gist of patford's statement. if this is norm, I am happy to have him on our side.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2019 8:44:53 GMT -5
I wouldn't call his season disappointing in a vacuum, he's playing very well. But given his pending free agency and what we can roughly assume his asking price will be I'd prefer if he put up numbers that made retaining him more of a no-brainer. its not disappointing in the sense that has fallen off a cliff, but this isn't the year the anyone would have expected coming off of last year. He (and JD) were the major reasons they won the world series. That is fine to me, he is a baseball player, it is a tough job. i just think it isn't uinfair to say it has been disappointing (understanding the bar was set so high), and that was the gist of patford's statement. if this is norm, I am happy to have him on our side. I mean... NO ONE would have thought that after a career year, a player would gravitate back towards his previously established level? There's a reason every projection system was shaving like three wins off of last year. And yeah, he's even a little bit below that level, but again, all it takes is a couple hot weeks and he's right where he was projected to be.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2019 11:04:48 GMT -5
its not disappointing in the sense that has fallen off a cliff, but this isn't the year the anyone would have expected coming off of last year. He (and JD) were the major reasons they won the world series. That is fine to me, he is a baseball player, it is a tough job. i just think it isn't uinfair to say it has been disappointing (understanding the bar was set so high), and that was the gist of patford's statement. if this is norm, I am happy to have him on our side. I mean... NO ONE would have thought that after a career year, a player would gravitate back towards his previously established level? There's a reason every projection system was shaving like three wins off of last year. And yeah, he's even a little bit below that level, but again, all it takes is a couple hot weeks and he's right where he was projected to be. Betts is at 2.6 fWAR, which extrapolates to 4.8 for a full season. That would tie his rookie season, which was the worst of his career. Every comment I've seen has very sensibly said that even this version of Betts is still obviously a great player, but it's fair to say he's come in toward the lower end of what could have been reasonably expected at the outset of the season - I personally was hoping for about a 7-WAR season - and it's fair to be a little disappointed, in a still-grateful-because-Mookie-is-awesome way, by that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2019 11:27:59 GMT -5
I mean... NO ONE would have thought that after a career year, a player would gravitate back towards his previously established level? There's a reason every projection system was shaving like three wins off of last year. And yeah, he's even a little bit below that level, but again, all it takes is a couple hot weeks and he's right where he was projected to be. Betts is at 2.6 fWAR, which extrapolates to 4.8 for a full season. That would tie his rookie season, which was the worst of his career. Every comment I've seen has very sensibly said that even this version of Betts is still obviously a great player, but it's fair to say he's come in toward the lower end of what could have been reasonably expected at the outset of the season - I personally was hoping for about a 7-WAR season - and it's fair to be a little disappointed, in a still-grateful-because-Mookie-is-awesome way, by that. Yeah, but I don't expect his current pace of production to continue based on the skills. THE BAT has him projected at .298/.386/.543 the rest of the way, which would push him up towards a six win season and probably make him a top ten player in baseball by the season's end. Kinda funny how this time last year I was trying to convince people that Betts wasn't actually as good as Mike Trout.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2019 11:50:44 GMT -5
Betts is at 2.6 fWAR, which extrapolates to 4.8 for a full season. That would tie his rookie season, which was the worst of his career. Every comment I've seen has very sensibly said that even this version of Betts is still obviously a great player, but it's fair to say he's come in toward the lower end of what could have been reasonably expected at the outset of the season - I personally was hoping for about a 7-WAR season - and it's fair to be a little disappointed, in a still-grateful-because-Mookie-is-awesome way, by that. Yeah, but I don't expect his current pace of production to continue based on the skills. THE BAT has him projected at .298/.386/.543 the rest of the way, which would push him up towards a six win season and probably make him a top ten player in baseball by the season's end. Kinda funny how this time last year I was trying to convince people that Betts wasn't actually as good as Mike Trout. This is true - if Betts plays better the rest of the season then his season will be less disappointing!
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