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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2019 0:18:55 GMT -5
Although most of my thoughts have been noted previously, I just thought I’d add a couple more:
With the obvious caveat that obtaining a young, controlled starting-quality player (Pos or SP; *maybe* a RP if he’s near-elite) means basically nobody is untouchable, here’s my list of no-go. The key, IMO, is redundancy. A player who fits a likely position of need within a reasonable timeframe simply is a poor trade choice, given the dearth of prospect depth but the need for low-cost youth that the coming crunch demands. For that reason:
1) Duran (CF-JBJ); Casas (1b-Pearce/Moreland et al; Chavis should move to 2b); Mata (SP-Porcello +/- Eovaldi depending on his final disposition...there are potentially two “open” slots come 2020, and 1.5 if you consider Eovaldi risky, which you should); Darwinzon (LHRP, with the hope he learns sufficient command to eventually start). These four players combine upside and positional need within the next few years, with the exception of Casas to a degree (likely 2-3 years away at best). OTOH, Casas looks like a possible middle-order hitter, combining massive power with a good OBP and potentially a plus hit tool. I think he’s just too talented to trade right now given what he would return, especially as a 1b-type (unless the acquiring team loved him enough at 3b). Duran’s struggles in AA make him a no-chance this year, but still a fair shot to take over for JBJ in 2021. They’ll need those $. Mata, like all of these guys, has some warts that reduce his trade value, but his stuff (and results) just keep getting better, and I think a 2021 arrival early-mid-season is reasonable. He’s also a guy the industry isn’t super high on after last year, but he’s sitting 95+ and killing worms, and he’s got genuine upside as a SP. Darwinzon is very close to being a superb reliever, and repeating this trade-for-‘pen-help thing is ridiculous. Organizationally, it’s time to develop, and stop putting things off to next year by filling in with injury-prone trade targets. I’d add Groome since his trade value is minimal, but the #2 SP talent still there. That’s a train they ought to stay on.
The “best” prospects who are tradable based on redundancy are Dalbec (could come back to bite them, but Devers is looking like a perennial AS), Chatham (Bogey’s the worst AS snub in probably a decade), and Houck. I’m reticent to move Houck because I still think he’s got a reasonable chance of being a solid 4 or even an average 3, and while not quite at Mata’s level, the stuff is there. If they had those guys 4-5 in 2021 behind Ssle-Price-Rodriguez+/- Eovaldi as a super-swingman sort, they’d save a lot of money and probably get better performance than this year’s lot. So Houck could be fairly valuable without being a star. He might also be a very good RP.
I’d very much prefer not to see extremely high-upside, low-current value prospects (Jimenez especially, Flores as well) trades because both fit potential needs based on ETAs (I know, it’s far out) and because their values are unlikely to get significantly lower, but could be much, much higher.
Tbh, I don’t think this team should be making a whole lot of moves. I’m not sure they really even “need” to make one. They just need to play to their talent level. I don’t think trading prospects beyond the three above really helps them much, because they don’t have any real impact guys right now...but they have a number who look like they *could* or even *will* be, to varying degrees. They’re just not going to get a whole lot of value back, and probably not enough to really move the needle. Moving the needle is going to require performance commensurate with ability at the MLB level.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 8, 2019 7:32:06 GMT -5
There are no untouchables (including Chavis). Yes, that is stipulated un the lead post. OK then Well if it's me, the one I have to be overwhelmed for is Mata. Everybody else is a available to help the team reach & win the World Series this year. And its like that every year.
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 8, 2019 16:50:09 GMT -5
I wouldn’t trade Casas, Mata, or Duran for anyone less than a star, under 28 age player. Dumbrowski has traded all of our good prospects, many unnecessarily as add ons to trades where the other team was already getting enough value back (dubon, Allen, etc). We can’t afford to keep moving young guys with potential for relievers and leftovers. Casas looks like the real deal, mata has been unbelievable since he was signed, and Duran looks like the likely replacement for jbj. I would trade Dalbec in a heart beat, I don’t think he’ll ever hit enough to be more than a Todd Frazier type and I’m all set with Mendoza line players regardless of their power. Wow, "trade in a heart beat?" I think that's an off the wall statement given Dalbec's ceiling. Dalbec carrying 3 plus tools at a premium position should put waive a huge red flag to those wanting to trade him. Could come back to haunt us. A ceiling of a near gold glove caliber defender who hits 40-50 home runs per season with a .800 + OPS is someone I would be very reluctant to sell. I would take that type of production for a middle of the order bat in a heartbeat!
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 8, 2019 17:02:06 GMT -5
I think I'd be willing to trade Duran out of all the top prospects. I'm not sold on him having enough strength and power to have a respectable MLB hit tool. His defense and arm strength is a bit of a question mark, so he might only flash speed in the MLB.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 8, 2019 17:22:46 GMT -5
I was thinking about this the other day: When repeating the AA level, Dalbec has cut his K% by more than 10% while maintaining his power numbers ( .251 IsoP in 2019 vs .252 in 18) and more than tripling his Walk rate. That's drastic improvement with enough of a sample size to believe in. There's a lot of players with Dalbec's profile that did improve their contact numbers while playing in the majors: Bryant and Springer come to mind and also A's Matt Chapman in AA at age 23 put a very similar core numbers to Dalbec's with a 11.7 BB%, 29.2% K% and .271 IsoP. I honestly would trade Chavis (and the FO should sell high on him before he crushes) before entertaining the idea of trading Dalbec and I was very skeptical about his profile a year ago.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 8, 2019 17:51:32 GMT -5
I was thinking about this the other day: When repeating the AA level, Dalbec has cut his K% by more than 10% while maintaining his power numbers ( .251 IsoP in 2019 vs .252 in 18) and more than tripling his Walk rate. That's drastic improvement with enough of a sample size to believe in. There's a lot of players with Dalbec's profile that did improve their contact numbers while playing in the majors: Bryant and Springer come to mind and also A's Matt Chapman in AA at age 23 put a very similar core numbers to Dalbec's with a 11.7 BB%, 29.2% K% and .271 IsoP. I honestly would trade Chavis (and the FO should sell high on him before he crushes) before entertaining the idea of trading Dalbec and I was very skeptical about his profile a year ago. I feel like Dalbec has the hitting profile to be like a Pete Alonso-lite. And we all see what that guy's done with the juiced balls, I can't wait to see what Dalbec does as well. I think trading him away has a pretty good chance to come back to haunt us given the big improvements he's shown. I'd agree on considering selling high on Chavis, even though I do think he'll hit enough homers to be at least a pretty useful player if he can stick at second base. But he has a lot he needs to improve on, especially contact rate.
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 8, 2019 18:01:33 GMT -5
I'd like to see if Dalbec has any positional flexibility before making a decision on whether he's boxed in at 3rd or not.
Just like the draft where you never draft by need. It's not good to trade a talented prospect because his 1st position is set for the foreseeable future.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jul 8, 2019 18:48:01 GMT -5
Trading Houck makes little sense. The team is desperate for cheap quality pitching. Have to be more than an 8th inning reliever in return. Trading young pitching from our organization is not wise! I'd rather gamble on internal players than do a trade. If we have a great 2nd half it will not be because of a trade we make.
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Jul 8, 2019 20:12:26 GMT -5
I wouldn’t trade Casas, Mata, or Duran for anyone less than a star, under 28 age player. Dumbrowski has traded all of our good prospects, many unnecessarily as add ons to trades where the other team was already getting enough value back (dubon, Allen, etc). We can’t afford to keep moving young guys with potential for relievers and leftovers. Casas looks like the real deal, mata has been unbelievable since he was signed, and Duran looks like the likely replacement for jbj. I would trade Dalbec in a heart beat, I don’t think he’ll ever hit enough to be more than a Todd Frazier type and I’m all set with Mendoza line players regardless of their power. Wow, "trade in a heart beat?" I think that's an off the wall statement given Dalbec's ceiling. Dalbec carrying 3 plus tools at a premium position should put waive a huge red flag to those wanting to trade him. Could come back to haunt us. A ceiling of a near gold glove caliber defender who hits 40-50 home runs per season with a .800 + OPS is someone I would be very reluctant to sell. I would take that type of production for a middle of the order bat in a heartbeat! Maybe I should elaborate on my statement. I’m not saying I would trade dalbec for nothing; I would want a good player in return obviously due exactly to his ceiling. I’m not confident at all in him reaching that ceiling though, and that’s why I’d trade him before the others. I think projecting any prospect to hit 40-50 HR a year is counting your chickens before they’ve hatched, not many players in the history of baseball have “averaged” that number of homers. And given how Devers has looked at third recently I think it’s unlikely Dalbec contributes gold glove defense at third base for us anytime soon, he’s more likely (if he stays) to end up at first or the outfield
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 9, 2019 4:43:54 GMT -5
I'd like to see if Dalbec has any positional flexibility before making a decision on whether he's boxed in at 3rd or not. Just like the draft where you never draft by need. It's not good to trade a talented prospect because his 1st position is set for the foreseeable future. He's a big body. There's just not a lot you can do with that if he doesn't move all that well. I mean, third base is basically the only position where he can be a positive on the field, while showing off his one standout tool (his arm). You put him in the outfield or middle infield, he's a liability. You put him at first, you waste the arm. It'd be awesome if he could catch, but that isn't happening. He could definitely use that cannon arm back there, if he could catch. There's just no other place to put him to give him the most value or any value. Mark Reynolds is the best example of what happens when you put a guy like that at first base. He turns into a platoon hitter.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2019 10:31:36 GMT -5
I'd like to see if Dalbec has any positional flexibility before making a decision on whether he's boxed in at 3rd or not. Just like the draft where you never draft by need. It's not good to trade a talented prospect because his 1st position is set for the foreseeable future. He's a big body. There's just not a lot you can do with that if he doesn't move all that well. I mean, third base is basically the only position where he can be a positive on the field, while showing off his one standout tool (his arm). You put him in the outfield or middle infield, he's a liability. You put him at first, you waste the arm. It'd be awesome if he could catch, but that isn't happening. He could definitely use that cannon arm back there, if he could catch. There's just no other place to put him to give him the most value or any value. Mark Reynolds is the best example of what happens when you put a guy like that at first base. He turns into a platoon hitter. Fangraphs rates his speed as 40/40 which is higher than Sam Travis or Rafael Devers (40/30). If he can learn to play passable outfield defense, you could shift him around 5 different positions - 1B, 3B, LF, RF, DH - depending on injuries and who needs a day off, etc. I would LOVE that kind of positional flexibility; it's the reason WAR can't capture the full value Brock Holt has given the team over his tenure - it allows the team to smooth out the line-up wherever it's needed. Contrast that with the current roster construction, where you're using up two spots in a straight platoon of 1B with guys that can't play anywhere else, and then you have another guy who can sort of play 3B but is instead used mostly at 2B and is also a dreadful player who needs to be shipped far from earth in a space capsule just to make sure he doesn't accidentally set foot on a baseball diamond ever again. Of course it's a big 'if' as to whether he can learn to play outfield decently, and also whether the team would be interested in using him that way. (In fact I'm not sure if he can really make it as a big league hitter, for that matter.) But I'd want to explore the possibility before throwing my hands up and saying "eh, already got a third baseman."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 9, 2019 17:27:42 GMT -5
He's a big body. There's just not a lot you can do with that if he doesn't move all that well. I mean, third base is basically the only position where he can be a positive on the field, while showing off his one standout tool (his arm). You put him in the outfield or middle infield, he's a liability. You put him at first, you waste the arm. It'd be awesome if he could catch, but that isn't happening. He could definitely use that cannon arm back there, if he could catch. There's just no other place to put him to give him the most value or any value. Mark Reynolds is the best example of what happens when you put a guy like that at first base. He turns into a platoon hitter. Fangraphs rates his speed as 40/40 which is higher than Sam Travis or Rafael Devers (40/30). If he can learn to play passable outfield defense, you could shift him around 5 different positions - 1B, 3B, LF, RF, DH - depending on injuries and who needs a day off, etc. I would LOVE that kind of positional flexibility; it's the reason WAR can't capture the full value Brock Holt has given the team over his tenure - it allows the team to smooth out the line-up wherever it's needed. Contrast that with the current roster construction, where you're using up two spots in a straight platoon of 1B with guys that can't play anywhere else, and then you have another guy who can sort of play 3B but is instead used mostly at 2B and is also a dreadful player who needs to be shipped far from earth in a space capsule just to make sure he doesn't accidentally set foot on a baseball diamond ever again. Of course it's a big 'if' as to whether he can learn to play outfield decently, and also whether the team would be interested in using him that way. (In fact I'm not sure if he can really make it as a big league hitter, for that matter.) But I'd want to explore the possibility before throwing my hands up and saying "eh, already got a third baseman." Of course, just as pitch/fx revealed scouting reports on pitch movement to be pure fiction, so has Statcast with scouting on grades for speed. Travis has shown 50 speed (elite for a 1B) from his first call-up. Devers showed 55 as a rookie and is still at 50. He's second this year to Xander in home-to-first times.
So we probably know nothing about Dalbec's actual speed and OF potential.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2019 17:42:32 GMT -5
^I completely agree with the speed ratings being completely inaccurate for just about all prospect ratings. I think they get scouted once when they first turn pro and it's never adjusted after that, despite the fact that a lot of guys can actually get faster with strength training up until their early 20s. Devers is so far from a 40/30 rating it's crazy.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 10, 2019 9:15:40 GMT -5
Honestly, none. There's no prospect in the system that I would be crushed over if they got adequate value in return.
The guys I'd hate to see get traded away are Casas and Groome. Maybe Mata because I desperately want this team to develop a starting pitcher.
Casas because they just drafted him and he looks good. Groome because he's never really flashed his potential and been, and is, hurt. Mata because he's young with stuff.
Again, none of these guys are untouchable.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 10, 2019 12:09:15 GMT -5
I was thinking about this the other day: When repeating the AA level, Dalbec has cut his K% by more than 10% while maintaining his power numbers ( .251 IsoP in 2019 vs .252 in 18) and more than tripling his Walk rate. That's drastic improvement with enough of a sample size to believe in. There's a lot of players with Dalbec's profile that did improve their contact numbers while playing in the majors: Bryant and Springer come to mind and also A's Matt Chapman in AA at age 23 put a very similar core numbers to Dalbec's with a 11.7 BB%, 29.2% K% and .271 IsoP. I honestly would trade Chavis (and the FO should sell high on him before he crushes) before entertaining the idea of trading Dalbec and I was very skeptical about his profile a year ago. I feel like Dalbec has the hitting profile to be like a Pete Alonso-lite. And we all see what that guy's done with the juiced balls, I can't wait to see what Dalbec does as well. I think trading him away has a pretty good chance to come back to haunt us given the big improvements he's shown. I'd agree on considering selling high on Chavis, even though I do think he'll hit enough homers to be at least a pretty useful player if he can stick at second base. But he has a lot he needs to improve on, especially contact rate. Dalbec is pretty similar to Chavis. Pete Alonso is three months younger than Dalbec, has a better K rate than Dalbec, is probably going to be the NL ROY, and does not belong in this conversation at all.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 10, 2019 12:21:27 GMT -5
Honestly, none. There's no prospect in the system that I would be crushed over if they got adequate value in return. The guys I'd hate to see get traded away are Casas and Groome. Maybe Mata because I desperately want this team to develop a starting pitcher. Casas because they just drafted him and he looks good. Groome because he's never really flashed his potential and been, and is, hurt. Mata because he's young with stuff. Again, none of these guys are untouchable. Yes, wouldn’t be crushed if someone with great potential is traded for someone who brings great value if that value is long term. But I agree with Henry and Cora that the priority for this highly talented and expensive team is to play better; and be better in 2020 even while resetting the tax cap. At this point in 2019 I would develop rather than trade any of the top prospects including Casas, Groome and Mata, but also Dalbec and other high ceiling guys He offers the potential for a large target, slick fielding, 30 bomb, low cost 1B with defensive versatility, a game changing arm from any position, and plenty of time to become a more complete hitter, a skill he is already demonstrating. On this team, who cares if 1B is not his most valuable position. We already have that value in Devers. Dalbec could be that guy as early as 2020, even if he is in the “learn on the job” phase, like Devers and Chavis have been. With already established defensive chops, and achieving success with his K/BB issues, he is so much more than “just” an elite slugger. IMO, even with a prospect’s potential to bust, on this excellent Red Sox team he is worth keeping and developing. He has a legitimate shot at being more valuable to this team long term than in a trade for an expensive #5SP or middle reliever.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 10, 2019 13:08:53 GMT -5
Honestly, none. There's no prospect in the system that I would be crushed over if they got adequate value in return. The guys I'd hate to see get traded away are Casas and Groome. Maybe Mata because I desperately want this team to develop a starting pitcher. Casas because they just drafted him and he looks good. Groome because he's never really flashed his potential and been, and is, hurt. Mata because he's young with stuff. Again, none of these guys are untouchable. If there's one thing that we can learn from Dombrowski, it's that if you're going to trade prospects, do it when they're at the peak of their value. Obviously you can't predict that perfectly, but Casas and (especially) Groome seem like safe bets to be worth more a year from now than they are today. Mata, on the other hand...
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 10, 2019 13:36:13 GMT -5
Groome is probably the only true untouchable in the system only because the current value is way, way below what the potential value is. But if they traded him for his potential value that'd be a coup.
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