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Post by dmaineah on Jul 13, 2019 6:35:52 GMT -5
Caleb Smith is closing in on his 28th birthday, that dings his value to a Miami organization that is one of the furthest from contention. Smith won’t reach arbitration until 2021. He’s sporting a strong 14.6% swinging-strike rate and 35.3% chase rate. While he’s struggling a bit with the long ball — and who isn’t? — Statcast doesn’t exhibit any glaring reason to worry about regression in terms of batted balls. The total package is quite appealing, blending the potential for immediate impact with a hefty dose of long-term value.
Gilberto Jimenez, Brandon Howlett & Durbin Feltman for Caleb Smith.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 7:08:03 GMT -5
Oh my god, this is the worst. You put him in the AL East and watch his walk rate skyrocket because he's afraid to throw it over the plate. He wouldn't be better than Colton Brewer.
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iii
Rookie
Posts: 46
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Post by iii on Jul 13, 2019 9:08:26 GMT -5
Much too much to give for a middling player like Smith
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 13, 2019 9:20:51 GMT -5
Pass. Three top 20 prospects (including a guy who many think can be our #1 prospect within the year) for an unproven-though admittedly controllable- pitcher. Hard pass. Decent idea. Wrong trade package.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2019 9:56:26 GMT -5
Caleb Smith is closing in on his 28th birthday, that dings his value to a Miami organization that is one of the furthest from contention. Smith won’t reach arbitration until 2021. He’s sporting a strong 14.6% swinging-strike rate and 35.3% chase rate. While he’s struggling a bit with the long ball — and who isn’t? — Statcast doesn’t exhibit any glaring reason to worry about regression in terms of batted balls. The total package is quite appealing, blending the potential for immediate impact with a hefty dose of long-term value. Gilberto Jimenez, Brandon Howlett & Durbin Feltman for Caleb Smith. I'm no prospect hugger but you really needlessly want to give away the farm, don't you? Caleb Smith is almost 28, has been good for about 5 minutes, and you want to give away a guy who potentially closes for the Red Sox, a potential leadoff guy, and a guy who might have a major league bat. We're all smart enough to know that prospects don't all pan out, but you want to increase the odds that at least one of them turns out good to great for a guy who has never had a track record of being successful? Hard pass. You want Smith? Fine, good idea, but you want to overpay for him? No thanks. I'll take the odds that at least one of those prospects turns out to be much more of an impact player than Smith will be.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 13, 2019 13:27:04 GMT -5
Actually I don't think this is a good enough offer to get him. I think if the Marlins shop him that they would get a better offer then I've proposed.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 15:21:43 GMT -5
Actually I don't think this is a good enough offer to get him. I think if the Marlins shop him that they would get a better offer then I've proposed. Caleb Smith plays in one of the biggest parks in the majors so he doesn't have to worry about every pop fly being a home run like he would have to in Toronto, Boston, NY and Baltimore. Even with that huge advantage, his xwOBA this season is .304 which slots after Workman (.269), Barnes (.270), Hembree (.290), Walden (.291), and ahead of Brewer (.314) and Brasier (.337). In other words, you're overvaluing him so much it isn't funny. He would just be another mediocre pitcher in this bullpen. I'd rather wait for Eovaldi, Houck and Hernandez, all of whom should be better than that. Josh Taylor is way better than that so far (.266). If any teams are dumb enough to give up that much for mediocre bullpen arms, then the Red Sox should complete an instant rebuild by trading Walden and Hembree.
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 13, 2019 15:31:50 GMT -5
Actually I don't think this is a good enough offer to get him. I think if the Marlins shop him that they would get a better offer then I've proposed. Caleb Smith plays in one of the biggest parks in the majors so he doesn't have to worry about every pop fly being a home run like he would have to in Toronto, Boston, NY and Baltimore. Even with that huge advantage, his xwOBA this season is .304 which slots after Workman (.269), Barnes (.270), Hembree (.290), Walden (.291), and ahead of Brewer (.314) and Brasier (.337). In other words, you're overvaluing him so much it isn't funny. He would just be another mediocre pitcher in this bullpen. I'd rather wait for Eovaldi, Houck and Hernandez, all of whom should be better than that. Josh Taylor is way better than that so far (.266). If any teams are dumb enough to give up that much for mediocre bullpen arms, then the Red Sox should complete an instant rebuild by trading Walden and Hembree. Smith is a starter, not a reliever. But he’s unproven. This is his first good year and he’s never pitched more than 80 innings in the majors. He could be a guy to go after, but definitely not at the price suggested. Not even close.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2019 15:36:06 GMT -5
Caleb Smith plays in one of the biggest parks in the majors so he doesn't have to worry about every pop fly being a home run like he would have to in Toronto, Boston, NY and Baltimore. Even with that huge advantage, his xwOBA this season is .304 which slots after Workman (.269), Barnes (.270), Hembree (.290), Walden (.291), and ahead of Brewer (.314) and Brasier (.337). In other words, you're overvaluing him so much it isn't funny. He would just be another mediocre pitcher in this bullpen. I'd rather wait for Eovaldi, Houck and Hernandez, all of whom should be better than that. Josh Taylor is way better than that so far (.266). If any teams are dumb enough to give up that much for mediocre bullpen arms, then the Red Sox should complete an instant rebuild by trading Walden and Hembree. Smith is a starter, not a reliever. But he’s unproven. This is his first good year and he’s never pitched more than 80 innings in the majors. He could be a guy to go after, but definitely not at the price suggested. Not even close. Don't know how I missed that, but it doesn't really move the needle for me at all. Pitchers moving from Miami/San Francisco/Mets/Oakland parks typically do much worse than their league adjusted stats show that they would.
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