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Post by dmaineah on Jul 16, 2019 6:26:26 GMT -5
What do you think JD does
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 16, 2019 7:24:47 GMT -5
He wasn't happy about the contract he signed. He's going to opt out and try and get more. I also thought when he signed here he didn't want to be a DH?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 16, 2019 7:32:43 GMT -5
I think he opts in
At the end of the day he’d have to get 4 years at over 20 per to make opting out worth it imo. His lack of defense and his age are really gonna limit his market I think
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Post by jdb on Jul 16, 2019 8:33:22 GMT -5
I voted no and no. I don’t think it’s a slam dunk he returns but I think he and Boras what another year on the DH in the NL thing. The reason I don’t think it’s a slam dunk is it’s better to negotiate a potential year 4 and 5 now being younger than three years from now.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 16, 2019 9:40:11 GMT -5
For me, with all the uncertainty and Mike Moustakas situations that have occurred, I couldn't opt out. The amount he has left on his current contract is almost as much as he's made so far in his career. That's a lot of personal wealth to gamble with. I don't think he would beat the 3/$65M unless he has a phenomenal end to the season. An .897 OPS in his age 31 season is good, but probably not enough to get a bat-only guy a significant raise over what's currently on the table. Name power, the thinking he could be better, a team looking to splurge, and the intangible effect on young hitters with his work ethic (supposedly he's worked with the younger hitters and has been instilling his brand of studying/work ethic for each and every at bat). It's not unreasonable to suggest he couldn't make more than 21.7 over the next 3 years. Maybe someone like the Rangers offer him 25 per. That's not bad for a mostly DH with a ~.900 OPS with potential to be an MVP candidate. Especially if he's in a place with heat and dry air or high altitude. Off-topic, but curious question, why hasn't he been looked at as a potential 1B candidate?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2019 9:44:41 GMT -5
He has another opt-out a year later, with no buyout. Instead of 3 years at $21.67M a year to break even, it's 2 years at $19.375M.
Furthermore, the Sox will be trying to get under the tax limit to reset it next year, but will have a ton of more to spend for 2021 and 2022.
And he's having a down year. It makes zero sense to opt out now, when the Sox would not be one of the bidders, versus a year from now.
His strategy will be to wait a year, prove he can hit good pitching (more on that in a moment), opt out, and re-sign for 2 or 3 years at a somewhat higher salary.
So ... JDM is dead last in MLB in FanGraph's approximate "Clutch" measurement, with -2.52 wins. B-ref has him at +12 batting runs (including GDP), but his offensive Win Probability Added is -0.27 wins, which is -2 or -3 runs. He's hitting .232 / .328 / .393 in Late & Close (64 PA). He's slugging .667 in 156 PA in Low Leverage and .427 in 219 PA in Medium and High.
There's some bad luck here, but a good part of it is real, as he's a guy (like Jim Rice and Alex Rodriguez, as opposed to David Ortiz and Mookie Betts) who fattens his numbers against weaker pitching and is a lot less great against elite pitching (like the bullpen guys he sees Late & Close. It just occurs to me that this may be a career longevity predictor).
BTW, who's leading MLB in positive "Clutch"? Eric Hosmer, who is sandwiched between Kris Bryant and Devers on the WPA leaderboard, with +2.35.
Both of their clutch performances are in line with what they had done before they hit free agency.
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Post by coachmac on Jul 16, 2019 9:55:50 GMT -5
I believe he'll opt out that's the Boras M.O. I believe he has an opt after next season also and club has the injury opt out. Sox might be able convine him stay by eliminating both opt outs and by getting him to $25 million per year. I'm ambivalent about keeping him at that price. We would then have lots of money tied up in 3 aging players. Sort of like the Amaro lead Phillies at the end of their run
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2019 10:06:12 GMT -5
I think logic dictates that he waits another year and then opts out. That's when his annual $ dips, plus with some of the back issues he's had, he's not having the same type of season that he's had the past few years.
That's what logic dictates.
Trying to read between the lines, from listening to him talk, he seems to have a feeling that he's been screwed and should be making more. So I have no doubt he will opt out. The question is will it be this year or next year?
If he's angry enough or emotional enough it'll be in November. If he's going to be logical about it, it'll be November 2020.
Hard to say which way he goes with it. Easy to say which way he should go with it.
I hope he's around another year. When he's at that elite type of level he was at least year and the few years prior, he's a huge difference maker. He's still an excellent offensive player. The difference he made in the lineup last year versus what they had without him in 2017 was jarring. And the lineup is still much better with him in the middle of it.
The question is: is he declining or is there some back issues that have quietly hampered him? I'm not yet convinced, skill-wise that he's on the decline.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 16, 2019 10:25:46 GMT -5
He has another opt-out a year later, with no buyout. Instead of 3 years at $21.67M a year to break even, it's 2 years at $19.375M. Furthermore, the Sox will be trying to get under the tax limit to reset it next year, but will have a ton of more to spend for 2021 and 2022. And he's having a down year. It makes zero sense to opt out now, when the Sox would not be one of the bidders, versus a year from now. His strategy will be to wait a year, prove he can hit good pitching (more on that in a moment), opt out, and re-sign for 2 or 3 years at a somewhat higher salary.
So ... JDM is dead last in MLB in FanGraph's approximate "Clutch" measurement, with -2.52 wins. B-ref has him at +12 batting runs (including GDP), but his offensive Win Probability Added is -0.27 wins, which is -2 or -3 runs. He's hitting .232 / .328 / .393 in Late & Close (64 PA). He's slugging .667 in 156 PA in Low Leverage and .427 in 219 PA in Medium and High.
There's some bad luck here, but a good part of it is real, as he's a guy (like Jim Rice and Alex Rodriguez, as opposed to David Ortiz and Mookie Betts) who fattens his numbers against weaker pitching and is a lot less great against elite pitching (like the bullpen guys he sees Late & Close. It just occurs to me that this may be a career longevity predictor). BTW, who's leading MLB in positive "Clutch"? Eric Hosmer, who is sandwiched between Kris Bryant and Devers on the WPA leaderboard, with +2.35.
Both of their clutch performances are in line with what they had done before they hit free agency. Perhaps, but then he'll yet another year older and he's had injuries in the past. Say his back or foot start acting up then he won't be opting out at all. I doubt the Red Sox wouldn't be a bidder. In fact, him opting out could be a way for them to get creative and move some money around so they could be under the next year and back load the following years. They might not be able to offer as much as they could potentially in 2 years, but they'll be a bidder. I could see him more than 3/65 in either AAV or just in years. All very valid, but for me I couldn't gamble with $65M unless there was much more certainty of an improved outcome. I'm a little biased because I don't think I could do it. The anxiety of turning down that kind of money and waiting from November to March to get a deal done would kill me. JDM didn't seem to like the process last time out either, so I'd be surprised if he's excited about going through the same process again. Not to say that he won't, but if I had to guess today I'd say he plays out the whole contract. That's why they have agents so that they can properly evaluate their clients markets Boras is very good at what he does. He can sometimes give bad advice, but he's the most sought out agent for a reason.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 16, 2019 18:02:19 GMT -5
I don’t think he opts out this year. He’d be hard pressed to get more money, if that’s the value point.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 29, 2019 14:02:57 GMT -5
I don't think he opts out. Because if he did the Sox would attach a qualifying offer & Boras knows that teams dont want to give up the draft pick compensation. Especially for an aging defensively limited Outfielder who is best suited to only DH. If J.D. wants to opt out his best bet is to learn & play 1B for the Red Sox this coming season & opt out next year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 29, 2019 14:50:39 GMT -5
Despite the QO I believe JD Martinez will opt out. Ego will trump logic here. I think JDM thinks he's underpaid and wants to try to get another payday now. And I doubt that Boras would talk him out of trying out free agency.
I think he'll wind up with Chicago or Texas or even Seattle and he'll beat his remaining $, not by much, but he will.
I anticipate hearing that JDM is gone by Nov 4th.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 29, 2019 15:34:01 GMT -5
Despite the QO I believe JD Martinez will opt out. Ego will trump logic here. I think JDM thinks he's underpaid and wants to try to get another payday now. And I doubt that Boras would talk him out of trying out free agency. I think he'll wind up with Chicago or Texas or even Seattle and he'll beat his remaining $, not by much, but he will. I anticipate hearing that JDM is gone by Nov 4th. If he is, that frees up $23.75M and it makes keeping Mookie substantially more likely, as I could see them making him a near-Troutian offer for 10-12 yr (a crescendo-decrescendo 10/$350M makes sense to me, with AAVs at the ends just below 30M and around 40M in the middle). I personally don’t think he’ll opt out until next year, but I’m close to 50-50. I think you’re right that he feels “under appreciated” by the market, and his current contract. Demainah has a really good point. If Martinez genuinely wants that 5/125 he’s dreaming on, he needs to spend the offseason turning himself into a viable 1b...like, better than fringy. I honestly don’t see him getting those $ at his age unless he can expand his market to the NL and add value to an AL team beyond hitting. He’s just not a serviceable OF, and it creates injury risk for a guy with nagging injuries. Hell, take up yoga, get limber, and get it done in 2020. All of that said, I’ll miss him a lot if he opts out. He’s been a terrific hitter and had a tremendous positive effect mentoring hitters. I think it’s no surprise what Bogey, Raffy, even Mookie have done since his arrival. The payroll situation is unfortunate but totally unsurprising. If he DOES opt out, it would leave them room for someone like Wheeler who (I think? Jeez, who knows these days?) will probably get a deal akin to Eovaldi’s, but without the playoff hero bump. Something like 3/50 to 5/70. At 4/60, that lops off $8.75M, and Wheeler’s been a 4 fWAR guy for two years and could conceivably be a good-bet 2a/3 with 1a upside. Citi is a pitcher’s park, but I’ve gotta think leaving that madhouse helps him. If they, say, signed Akiyama to a 4/24M, traded JBJ (saves $4M), got Moreland to take a $4M 1-year (saves $2.5M) to platoon with Chavis and/or Dalbec (who had encouraging K rate improvement in AAA), with assorted non-renewals of a few $1-2M deals like León and Hembree, and the end of the Sandoval, Porcello, and Pearce deals...they’d be awfully close to the $208M cap, taking a hit offensively but improving hopefully similarly on the pitching front. It’s risky, but it could work. Still think Jon Gray should be a low-cost upside target but this approach preserves their emerging talent. Houck had an encouraging AFL stint, so I like him a lot as #6 and higher-leverage BP depth, with the option to be a bulk guy if they wanna get fancy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 29, 2019 16:12:42 GMT -5
Despite the QO I believe JD Martinez will opt out. Ego will trump logic here. I think JDM thinks he's underpaid and wants to try to get another payday now. And I doubt that Boras would talk him out of trying out free agency. I think he'll wind up with Chicago or Texas or even Seattle and he'll beat his remaining $, not by much, but he will. I anticipate hearing that JDM is gone by Nov 4th. If he is, that frees up $23.75M and it makes keeping Mookie substantially more likely, as I could see them making him a near-Troutian offer for 10-12 yr (a crescendo-decrescendo 10/$350M makes sense to me, with AAVs at the ends just below 30M and around 40M in the middle). I personally don’t think he’ll opt out until next year, but I’m close to 50-50. I think you’re right that he feels “under appreciated” by the market, and his current contract. Demainah has a really good point. If Martinez genuinely wants that 5/125 he’s dreaming on, he needs to spend the offseason turning himself into a viable 1b...like, better than fringy. I honestly don’t see him getting those $ at his age unless he can expand his market to the NL and add value to an AL team beyond hitting. He’s just not a serviceable OF, and it creates injury risk for a guy with nagging injuries. Hell, take up yoga, get limber, and get it done in 2020. All of that said, I’ll miss him a lot if he opts out. He’s been a terrific hitter and had a tremendous positive effect mentoring hitters. I think it’s no surprise what Bogey, Raffy, even Mookie have done since his arrival. The payroll situation is unfortunate but totally unsurprising. If he DOES opt out, it would leave them room for someone like Wheeler who (I think? Jeez, who knows these days?) will probably get a deal akin to Eovaldi’s, but without the playoff hero bump. Something like 3/50 to 5/70. At 4/60, that lops off $8.75M, and Wheeler’s been a 4 fWAR guy for two years and could conceivably be a good-bet 2a/3 with 1a upside. Citi is a pitcher’s park, but I’ve gotta think leaving that madhouse helps him. If they, say, signed Akiyama to a 4/24M, traded JBJ (saves $4M), got Moreland to take a $4M 1-year (saves $2.5M) to platoon with Chavis and/or Dalbec (who had encouraging K rate improvement in AAA), with assorted non-renewals of a few $1-2M deals like León and Hembree, and the end of the Sandoval, Porcello, and Pearce deals...they’d be awfully close to the $208M cap, taking a hit offensively but improving hopefully similarly on the pitching front. It’s risky, but it could work. Still think Jon Gray should be a low-cost upside target but this approach preserves their emerging talent. Houck had an encouraging AFL stint, so I like him a lot as #6 and higher-leverage BP depth, with the option to be a bulk guy if they wanna get fancy. At this point I actually agree with dmaineah's assertion that JDM should become a 1b if he wants to increase his value although he'd need the entire offseason and spring training to try to make that a reality, and in the case of the Red Sox, while he'd be an option for 1b I would think it's easier for the Red Sox to have Dalbec at 1b instead. Honestly I don't think the Red Sox have a ton of options to improve the team. I don't see them spending money on a Wheeler, and I don't know that they snag Gray. More likely Houck gets a long look. I mentioned Martinez as a DH option should the Cards deal him (he's totally wrong for that roster), but more likely Chavis winds up at DH and the Sox find a guy (Gennett) to play 2b. I think JBJ gets moved this offseason. I think the Sox will supplement the bullpen. Like I said, I think Betts stays, but I think if the Sox get the sense that Mookie doesn't want to make Boston his long-term home, then he'll be traded - with the only question being in Dec or in July. I don't think the Sox let Mookie walk away if they think that staying in Boston isn't his true desire - they'd trade him first. My guess is that he stays until next July.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 29, 2019 20:05:06 GMT -5
There's probably a reason why JDM hasn't tried 1B. He seems like he'd be as immobile as 40 year old Papi at 1B. He has zero quick twitch movement.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 29, 2019 23:41:54 GMT -5
Yeah, I cannot picture him playing 1B. That image just doesn't take in the mind's eye. I think he's just not a viable defensive player.
I wonder if his feeling undervalued comes from his being somewhat out of sync with what teams are valuing these days (kind of like Kimbrel last off-season). He's obviously a great hitter, but he's only a hitter, in an age when teams are looking for versatility; and he's 32, in an age when very few of the top positional players are over 30. (The top-ranked 30+ player by fWAR this season was LeMahieu, at #18.)
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Post by Canseco on Oct 30, 2019 9:31:43 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, then it will be interesting to see if a trade market emerges. As great as he is as a hitter, it seems the organization wants to be more financially efficient, and that probably doesn’t include paying a DH (not named David Ortiz) this much.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 30, 2019 13:19:07 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, then it will be interesting to see if a trade market emerges. As great as he is as a hitter, it seems the organization wants to be more financially efficient, and that probably doesn’t include paying a DH (not named David Ortiz) this much. I hate the idea of losing JD, but it would be much better if he opted in and was traded than if he just opted out. It would clear an additional $6M pending the return.
Unfortunately if he opts out the Sox only shed $16M and he will still count $6M towards the CBT calculation next year.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 30, 2019 13:23:18 GMT -5
Unfortunately if he opts out the Sox only shed $16M and he will still count $6M towards the CBT calculation next year.
If he has trade value then he'll opt out.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 30, 2019 18:03:47 GMT -5
Sure, but then the cost to a team is money + high draft pick(s) + international bonus money and who know how many teams that knocks out.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 30, 2019 18:13:24 GMT -5
I'm not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but JDM had both the highest walk rate of his career and lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2019.
His power was a little down, but he may actually be getting better as a hitter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2019 1:41:46 GMT -5
If JDM doesn’t opt out, then it will be interesting to see if a trade market emerges. As great as he is as a hitter, it seems the organization wants to be more financially efficient, and that probably doesn’t include paying a DH (not named David Ortiz) this much. I hate the idea of losing JD, but it would be much better if he opted in and was traded than if he just opted out. It would clear an additional $6M pending the return.
Unfortunately if he opts out the Sox only shed $16M and he will still count $6M towards the CBT calculation next year.
The best scenario would be to trade him, have him opt out next year, and re-sign him, probably adding one more year at a reasonable cost.
It would be perfectly kosher to tell him now that if he opts out in a year, you expect to be interested in doing just that.
From his point of view a year from now, I'm pretty sure that there's a way that's kosher for agents of a player with an opt-out to find out from a GM if they would have an interest. I don't know where they draw the line for tampering, but a GM can make it clear to a agent that they have an interest without the player's name even being mentioned. So there should be no risk for JDM and little for us -- if he loses value in 2020, you are shed of the contract. If he maintains his value, you can bring him back unless he actually likes playing for his new team more than the Sox. I think the chances that he increases his value are slim, and ditto for wanting to go elsewhere.
You can even try to trade him to a team that might be expected to trade him at the deadline, so that re-signing him doesn't cost you a pick.
You could pick up a much cheaper DH type and also trade JBJ and have salary room to get Inciarte to play CF, and re-sign Holt.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 2, 2019 5:58:07 GMT -5
I hate the idea of losing JD, but it would be much better if he opted in and was traded than if he just opted out. It would clear an additional $6M pending the return.
Unfortunately if he opts out the Sox only shed $16M and he will still count $6M towards the CBT calculation next year.
[...]
From his point of view a year from now, I'm pretty sure that there's a way that's kosher for agents of a player with an opt-out to find out from a GM if they would have an interest. I don't know where they draw the line for tampering, but a GM can make it clear to a agent that they have an interest without the player's name even being mentioned. [...]
I don't get this at all. You think there's a rule against tampering that says it's only tampering if you mention a player's name?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 2, 2019 7:35:57 GMT -5
I am quite sure that tampering, by any definition goes on quite often between owners, GM's and agents. It's as much of a part of baseball as it is the business and legal world. Denying it exists is only putting on blinders and really.. It's only tampering if caught, otherwise it's nothing more than a shrewd business move.. Or legal maneuver..
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 2, 2019 8:52:18 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure that Boras will have a general idea of what to expect before he advises JDM.
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