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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 4, 2019 16:48:32 GMT -5
Announcement of the 60-day activations and Centeno move mean we're probably not seeing any of the MLFAs protected. Only noteworthy one is Nunez but not surprised really.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 6, 2019 16:31:03 GMT -5
They currently have 34 guys. Travis and Weber (both out of options, and behind Dalbec and a ton of guys, respectively) look like guys you waive when you sign a FA, so call it 32. I think they sign 3 free agents:a 1B, 2B (probably Holt), and a pitcher. That's 35.
You've got Dalbec, Chatham, and Wilson. That's 38.
That leaves 1 or 2 spots (depending on whether they want to leave a spot open for a Rule 5 guy) for Bazardo, Ockimey, or someone less likely.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2019 22:54:41 GMT -5
I see even more room.
At 34 now.
Leon gets non-tendered but replaced, a wash. Weber and Kelley are fungible, DFA depth. -2 I still don't get the Reyes add last year. I think he clears waivers. -1 I actually think Travis stays. Dalbec won't be up on day 1, and I think there is a chance they save money at 1B by not signing someone and instead mixing and matching Chavis & Travis (by essentially platooning Travis and Hernandez and moving Chavis) at first until they get Dalbec for an extra year. Pedroia will go on the 60-day as soon as necessary, so you can go into the spring with 40 even if you want flexibility. - 1 eventually.
So that's 30. Even with additions, plenty of room for Chatham, Dalbec, Wilson, Bazardo.
BUT
all that said, this is a fruitless exercise imo. They're going to make trades involving major league players this offseason that are going to remake the 40-man. Even if 208 is a goal and not a mandate, it being a goal means they're going to take steps to get closer to it. I don't see how they enter 2020 with all of Benintendi, JBJ, Betts, and JDM. I think at least one is gone and maybe two. And that will require acquisitions to replace what they lose. We can speculate all we want with this 40-man, but that's almost certainly not going to be how it plays out.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 7, 2019 1:12:35 GMT -5
Agreed on Kelley, along with most every other roster choice. Same with why Reyes was ever put on the 40 man and why he remains there.
Travis, IMO without any options should be removed now. His spot can be easily replaced if needed by an Indy pickup, AAAA floater at anytime for an emergency backup. It's not like anyone expects him to produce now. Should Holt sign, that would go miles to help Chavis out at 1b if Moreland, or another utility type does not come onboard.
Poyner and Johnson are another pair who should be looked at as DFA candidates, especially the out of options Johnson.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 7, 2019 2:03:04 GMT -5
I see even more room. At 34 now. Leon gets non-tendered but replaced, a wash. Weber and Kelley are fungible, DFA depth. -2 I still don't get the Reyes add last year. I think he clears waivers. -1 I actually think Travis stays. Dalbec won't be up on day 1, and I think there is a chance they save money at 1B by not signing someone and instead mixing and matching Chavis & Travis (by essentially platooning Travis and Hernandez and moving Chavis) at first until they get Dalbec for an extra year. Pedroia will go on the 60-day as soon as necessary, so you can go into the spring with 40 even if you want flexibility. - 1 eventually. So that's 30. Even with additions, plenty of room for Chatham, Dalbec, Wilson, Bazardo. BUT all that said, this is a fruitless exercise imo. They're going to make trades involving major league players this offseason that are going to remake the 40-man. Even if 208 is a goal and not a mandate, it being a goal means they're going to take steps to get closer to it. I don't see how they enter 2020 with all of Benintendi, JBJ, Betts, and JDM. I think at least one is gone and maybe two. And that will require acquisitions to replace what they lose. We can speculate all we want with this 40-man, but that's almost certainly not going to be how it plays out. Your last paragraph is just not backed up by the numbers.
Here's a team ("X" is an acquisition):
Vazquez, 1B X1, 2B X2, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, CF X3, Betts, Martinez C X4, Platoon 1B X5, Chavis, M. Hernandez
Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, (opener) Workman, Barnes, D. Hernandez, Taylor, Walden, Osich, Reliever X6, Johnson, Long Man X7.
The 18 guys listed by name, plus benefits and optioned players, count $200M towards the tax limit.
That gives you $8M to spend on 3 regulars and 4 reserves. Which really amounts to $5.5M to spend on a new 1B, 2B, and CF.
It's completely doable. The question then becomes, do you really want to move a valuable long-term asset to make the team a bit better at those three starting positions, when next year you can spend very freely to fill them, or maybe fill them internally?
Right now I want to sign Logan Morrison, Brock Holt, and Cesar Puella for the three starting spots. That might cost you $7M. You can trade Barnes or Workman and sign a second relief arm to make that happen.
So there is demonstrably no need to dump any major asset in order to get under the tax limit. The key is to find your own versions of Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela to fill the 1B and CF spots, and fill the other four spots with guys who will also provide major bang for cheapo bucks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 7, 2019 6:32:42 GMT -5
So then how did the remove JBJ from the roster in your hypo, if not by a trade? You then go on to suggest a second trade so they can sign the pu pu platter of LoMo, Holt, and Puello.
You're making my point. This is exactly what I'm saying.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 7, 2019 8:52:55 GMT -5
Definite adds: Bobby Dalbec, CJ Chatham, John Nunez, Eduard Bazardo, Not definite but more likely than not: Kyle Hart, Adam Lau Maybe: Marcus Wilson Unlikely but interesting: Josh Ockimey Longshots: Chad De La Guerra, Chris Owings, Tony Renda I'm updating my list; Definite: Chatham, Dalbec, Nunez Not definite but more likely than not: Wilson, Bazardo Maybe: Ockimey, Hart Longshots: De La Guerra, Diaz, Lau, Kent, Schwaab Unlikely: Everybody else Disappointed/surprised they didn’t add Nunez. I’m updating my guess again: At 34 now, I think they add 5. Chatham, Dalbec, Wilson, Bazardo & surprise surprise Aybar
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Nov 7, 2019 12:02:25 GMT -5
I see even more room. At 34 now. Leon gets non-tendered but replaced, a wash. Weber and Kelley are fungible, DFA depth. -2 I still don't get the Reyes add last year. I think he clears waivers. -1 I actually think Travis stays. Dalbec won't be up on day 1, and I think there is a chance they save money at 1B by not signing someone and instead mixing and matching Chavis & Travis (by essentially platooning Travis and Hernandez and moving Chavis) at first until they get Dalbec for an extra year. Pedroia will go on the 60-day as soon as necessary, so you can go into the spring with 40 even if you want flexibility. - 1 eventually. So that's 30. Even with additions, plenty of room for Chatham, Dalbec, Wilson, Bazardo. BUT all that said, this is a fruitless exercise imo. They're going to make trades involving major league players this offseason that are going to remake the 40-man. Even if 208 is a goal and not a mandate, it being a goal means they're going to take steps to get closer to it. I don't see how they enter 2020 with all of Benintendi, JBJ, Betts, and JDM. I think at least one is gone and maybe two. And that will require acquisitions to replace what they lose. We can speculate all we want with this 40-man, but that's almost certainly not going to be how it plays out. Your last paragraph is just not backed up by the numbers.
Here's a team ("X" is an acquisition):
Vazquez, 1B X1, 2B X2, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, CF X3, Betts, Martinez C X4, Platoon 1B X5, Chavis, M. Hernandez
Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, (opener) Workman, Barnes, D. Hernandez, Taylor, Walden, Osich, Reliever X6, Johnson, Long Man X7.
The 18 guys listed by name, plus benefits and optioned players, count $200M towards the tax limit.
That gives you $8M to spend on 3 regulars and 4 reserves. Which really amounts to $5.5M to spend on a new 1B, 2B, and CF.
It's completely doable. The question then becomes, do you really want to move a valuable long-term asset to make the team a bit better at those three starting positions, when next year you can spend very freely to fill them, or maybe fill them internally?
Right now I want to sign Logan Morrison, Brock Holt, and Cesar Puella for the three starting spots. That might cost you $7M. You can trade Barnes or Workman and sign a second relief arm to make that happen.
So there is demonstrably no need to dump any major asset in order to get under the tax limit. The key is to find your own versions of Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela to fill the 1B and CF spots, and fill the other four spots with guys who will also provide major bang for cheapo bucks.
I don’t understand what your problem is with Hatfield’s final paragraph. He said we’re going to have some trades within our 40, some players will go, new ones arrive. He also, and I agree with him, that it’s almost impossible to see a scenario where Benny, JBJ, Mookie, and JDM are on the roster. What do you do? You get rid of JBJ and you trade Barnes or Workman. Exactly what Hatfield is arguing. Am I missing something? Edit: oops or what Hatfield just said above.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 7, 2019 18:10:21 GMT -5
So then how did the remove JBJ from the roster in your hypo, if not by a trade? You then go on to suggest a second trade so they can sign the pu pu platter of LoMo, Holt, and Puello. You're making my point. This is exactly what I'm saying. I missed JBJ in that sentence! ... since his departure seems to be pretty much a foregone conclusion. The phrase "remake the 40-man" to the extent that it would render the speculation in this thread moot didn't conjure up swapping JBJ for someone else.
BTW, BP's tax spreadsheet and hence my numbers are low by the $1.75M extra that is counting towards the AAV because of JDM's potentially injury-triggered mutual option. But that would still leave my plan intact. Fpr what it's worth!
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Nov 9, 2019 17:15:41 GMT -5
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 19, 2019 9:43:38 GMT -5
Decision day
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Post by texs31 on Nov 19, 2019 9:56:31 GMT -5
. . . is tomorrow at 8pm.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 19, 2019 15:57:36 GMT -5
You've got to wonder if we have any remaining international signing bonus $ available (the more recent signing bonuses are unknown to my knowledge), if that could be used as a trade chip for other team's fringe 40-man considerations...
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2019 22:48:37 GMT -5
This should be a super interesting Rule 5 draft with rosters expanding to 26. If anyone like Durran is left off for any team, I totally expect a team to take a dedicated pinch runner.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 20, 2019 1:14:05 GMT -5
This should be a super interesting Rule 5 draft with rosters expanding to 26. If anyone like Durran is left off for any team, I totally expect a team to take a dedicated pinch runner. Lordie, not Duran. He could be an important contributor for league minimum as soon as 2020. I would like to see homegrown Duran and Giminez add the forgotten true option of excitement to this team over the next few years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2019 1:43:06 GMT -5
This should be a super interesting Rule 5 draft with rosters expanding to 26. If anyone like Durran is left off for any team, I totally expect a team to take a dedicated pinch runner. Lordie, not Duran. He could be an important contributor for league minimum as soon as 2020. I would like to see homegrown Duran and Giminez add the forgotten true option of excitement to this team over the next few years. I don't think he meant Duran specifically, he's not eligible. I think he was referring to his speed, a player like Duran isn't going to go unprotected.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2019 9:37:32 GMT -5
I'll be surprised if the Sox don't make a few last minute trades. They're essentially in the perfect position to do so, trading players that don't need 40 man protection to teams with an excess. Similar to the Colten Brewer trade to the Padres last year for Quiroz.
The Rays, Padres and Braves all look like they have some decisions to make.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Nov 20, 2019 10:08:56 GMT -5
I'll be surprised if the Sox don't make a few last minute trades. They're essentially in the perfect position to do so, trading players that don't need 40 man protection to teams with an excess. Similar to the Colten Brewer trade to the Padres last year for Quiroz. The Rays, Padres and Braves all look like they have some decisions to make. Yeah I hope Bloom has his eyes on a guy or two from the Rays.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Nov 20, 2019 10:45:20 GMT -5
I was wondering what the Rays participation in Rule 5 was recently. Looks like they've taken 1 player over the last five (Kevin Gadea in 2016), compared to the Red Sox 2 players (Josh Rutledge and one for a trade). Both teams have lost a few players the last few years.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 20, 2019 17:37:05 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 20, 2019 19:45:25 GMT -5
Eduard Bazardo seems to be the most notable exception.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2019 20:06:07 GMT -5
Eduard Bazardo seems to be the most notable exception. MLB.com had Bazardo, Hart, and Aybar at 25, 27, and 29, so it seems likely that they found themselves in a pick-two-of-three situation. Speier in his BA chart predicted that Bazardo gets taken in the draft if left unprotected.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2019 21:34:39 GMT -5
Reds acquired Jose DeLeon from the Rays.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 20, 2019 22:17:14 GMT -5
Eduard Bazardo seems to be the most notable exception. MLB.com had Bazardo, Hart, and Aybar at 25, 27, and 29, so it seems likely that they found themselves in a pick-two-of-three situation. Speier in his BA chart predicted that Bazardo gets taken in the draft if left unprotected. They are at 39 and still have Kelley, Weber, and Reyes on the 40-man, never mind Leon who probably gets non-tendered. I sincerely doubt that it was a space issue.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2019 2:40:45 GMT -5
MLB.com had Bazardo, Hart, and Aybar at 25, 27, and 29, so it seems likely that they found themselves in a pick-two-of-three situation. Speier in his BA chart predicted that Bazardo gets taken in the draft if left unprotected. They are at 39 and still have Kelley, Weber, and Reyes on the 40-man, never mind Leon who probably gets non-tendered. I sincerely doubt that it was a space issue. If they expect to add four more players to the team than they subtract, then they would be full.
Leon, JDM, and JBJ would be replaced 1-for-1. But I see them adding a 1B to move Chavis into a 10th man role [replacing Moreland], re-signing Holt to start at 2B, and adding a 5th starter type [replacing Porcello]. Tradings both J's gives you salary room for those upgrades, and the whole rationale for dealing JDM is that you can buy a comparable number of wins for half his salary and thereby get under the tax limit.
So that's three additions. I think there's a good chance they add a Travis upgrade while keeping him on the roster into ST. Another reliever is also a possibility, especially if they trade Hembree and replace him with someone with options left (one of the last two moves could be done in ST after they move Pedroia to the 60-day list).
If they dd all that, Travis and Lin would ideally clear waivers at the end of ST (or when all the position players were healthy), leaving them with 38.
Now, if either the JDM or JBJ trade brings back a 40-man roster prospect who doesn't fit an MLB role, or they see someone they like in the Rule 5, they're beyond full. That would mean waiving Travis or Lin before ST begins. So I do think that space is an issue.
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