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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2019 17:04:21 GMT -5
Another thread we usually have by now. I'd missed this, but the league will be earlier this year, running mid-September through the end of October. They also officially got rid of the restriction on only one player below AA per org (I feel like that hadn't been enforced in the past couple years anyway...) www.baseballamerica.com/stories/arizona-fall-league-announces-schedule-personnel-changes-for-2019/In past years, they announced the rosters at the end of August, but given that, I wonder if they'll move the announcement up as well. For me, I speculate the following players will go: Austin Rei - desperately needs the reps after being hurt most of the year CJ Chatham - perhaps to get reps at 2B and 3B as well as SS? Marcus Wilson Jarren Duran - I'm unsure on this one because I could see them saying he'd be better off resting after his first full season. (Or, perhaps, calling him up to pinch run, although I think that's much less likely now than I did in, say, May.) Dark horse candidate - Ryan Fitzgerald - before you scoff, consider that he's half a year older than Chatham. One of Denyi Reyes, Kutter Crawford, or Kyle Hart as the SP. Durbin Feltman - Although I have the same concern here as with Duran Eduard Bazardo - Token R5 RP slot. Maybe Jake Cosart if he gets healthy? If things go sideways between now and mid-August and they fall completely out of contention, Tanner Houck replaces a pitcher.
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 24, 2019 20:21:04 GMT -5
Flores Jimenez Howlett Decker Diaz
Young studs who need work
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,207
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Post by radiohix on Jul 24, 2019 20:26:13 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 24, 2019 20:50:18 GMT -5
Technically they could choose one of that group, but they wouldn't for obvious reasons.
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 24, 2019 20:53:45 GMT -5
In Chris’s post to start the thread, he mentioned that the one guy below AA rule is gone. So theoretically they could send all of those guys. Now they 100% will not send any of them, but in theory they could.
AFL is semi-comparable to AA-AAA. They’re not sending Lowell guys.
Although you do have to wonder if the changed personnel rules will change that. I doubt it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2019 22:03:22 GMT -5
Those guys are all too young. As stated, it's basically a AAA/AA league. The change to open up the rosters was to give organizations more freedom. There used to be promotions on 7/31 of A+ guys to AA so they'd be eligible for the AFL, which was immensely silly.
The Lowell guys will be at the Fall Instructional League.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 5, 2019 9:24:16 GMT -5
If things go sideways between now and mid-August and they fall completely out of contention, Tanner Houck replaces a pitcher. Didn't expect this to be the case by now. Le Sigh. If Houck needed to be added to the 40-man I'd think they might add him, but I doubt they add to any potential roster concerns and option considerations to get him 10 innings this September. I expect he'll replace Feltman, who I think might need a full offseason, and who also might do well to be away from the potential hype of the AFL. I've mentioned this elsewhere, but I do think the outsized expectations on him put on a lot of pressure and contributed to his slow start.
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Post by sittingstill on Aug 5, 2019 9:42:01 GMT -5
I expect he'll replace Feltman, who I think might need a full offseason, and who also might do well to be away from the potential hype of the AFL. I've mentioned this elsewhere, but I do think the outsized expectations on him put on a lot of pressure and contributed to his slow start. He was pretty explicit about that in talking to Kevin Thomas of the Portland Press Herald at the end of June. Red Sox bullpen could use a polished Durbin Feltman
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alnipper
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Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Aug 5, 2019 12:11:01 GMT -5
Dalbec and Alan Marrero possibilities as well? I wish Groome was healthier by now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 5, 2019 21:35:23 GMT -5
Alan Marrero isn't a candidate for a number of reasons, including that he's nowhere near high enough in the system - it's a roughly AA league.
Dalbec went last year. Doesn't mean they won't send him again, but it doesn't happen too often.
Groome wouldn't be a candidate either.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 6, 2019 5:39:00 GMT -5
What’s the latest on Groome? Last I read, he may be pitching in late August.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 6, 2019 5:53:57 GMT -5
Yeah, it's been what 16 months since his surgery. He's our pitching Obi Wan at this point.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 6, 2019 6:54:38 GMT -5
Why not Shugart?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 6, 2019 7:03:00 GMT -5
As has been mentioned a few times in this thread already, the AFL is roughly AA/AAA in level of competition. It's an aggressive assignment for a player who was in Salem, never mind in Greenville.
Shugart will likely go to Instructs to continue making up the IP he lost while suspended.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2019 8:22:12 GMT -5
Because of innings considerations and the winter league eliminations, we seem to have a shortage of likely candidates. Perhaps the AFL would be a good testing ground for McGrath and/or Browning.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 6, 2019 8:49:59 GMT -5
McGrath is a possibility based on usage so I guess it depends on availability. Do the Australian League rules apply the same as the other Winter Leagues?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2019 9:04:52 GMT -5
Hmmm good question. Probably does which would eliminate him.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 6, 2019 9:15:06 GMT -5
As has been mentioned a few times in this thread already, the AFL is roughly AA/AAA in level of competition. It's an aggressive assignment for a player who was in Salem, never mind in Greenville. Shugart will likely go to Instructs to continue making up the IP he lost while suspended. Aggressive? Good! They should be. It's not like it would kill his confidence or he would have to pitch to many innings. Not in the AFL. The Sox are to conservative at times with some players. They need to push em, show em they believe in em. Be aggressive & support em. Why is Chatham still in AA & Fitzgerald in A? I think for some players keeping them down hurts more then advancing them. I'd like to see the Sox be more aggressive at times.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 6, 2019 11:32:51 GMT -5
As has been mentioned a few times in this thread already, the AFL is roughly AA/AAA in level of competition. It's an aggressive assignment for a player who was in Salem, never mind in Greenville. Shugart will likely go to Instructs to continue making up the IP he lost while suspended. Aggressive? Good! They should be. It's not like it would kill his confidence or he would have to pitch to many innings. Not in the AFL. The Sox are to conservative at times with some players. They need to push em, show em they believe in em. Be aggressive & support em. Why is Chatham still in AA & Fitzgerald in A? I think for some players keeping them down hurts more then advancing them. I'd like to see the Sox be more aggressive at times. Rafael Devers made his major league debut at 20. Duran was in AA a year after being drafted. Mata, Howlett, Flores are all other good examples of the Red Sox being aggressive with sigificant prospects. Selective aggressiveness is the answer. "Promote everyone" is not. Maybe Chatham is in AA still because the Portland coaches are working on something with his approach and they value continuity. Fitzgerald is probably blocked by Chatham but at this point he kinda is what he is so I'm sure the organization doesn't feel the need to accelerate anything for him. Shugart missed a huge chunk of this season and has a lot of innings to catch up on, it makes more sense for the Red Sox to let that happen in a much more controlled environment than to throw him into a league that's 2-2.5 levels above what he's ever pitched at. "pushing" a prospect is never good because it means you're forcing the issue. Have a development plan and make decisions on promotions when the prospect has shown significant development in the scope of that plan. That's the smart way to approach it. And of course there are guys I think should probably be promoted. I've been saying Granberg should be in Salem for months. But I don't know what their plan is for him and I haven't watched him play, so I can't really say with certainty that they're screwing up his development. I know it's easy to focus on the misses when you're so transfixed on one system the whole time, but the Red Sox probably have more developmental success than a lot of other teams so they have earned the benefit of the doubt to some extent.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 6, 2019 11:37:21 GMT -5
CJ Chatham is hitting .289/.316/.375 since May 1. Ryan Fitzgerald is at .256/.335/.337 since May 15. Promoting players before the league has had a chance to make an adjustment (and, in turn, the players getting a chance to adjust to the adjustment) does them a disservice.
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Post by orion09 on Aug 6, 2019 14:57:32 GMT -5
CJ Chatham is hitting .289/.316/.375 since May 1. Ryan Fitzgerald is at .256/.335/.337 since May 15. Promoting players before the league has had a chance to make an adjustment (and, in turn, the players getting a chance to adjust to the adjustment) does them a disservice. Question: when you say “adjustments,” what kind of scouting is going on at the minor league level? Like, do they have advance scouts/analysts preparing reports, video, heatmaps, etc for the players, making sure the league will find holes in a player’s swing, and really force an adjustment like at the MLB level, or is it just like “I threw that dude a low fastball back in April and he hit a double, so I guess I’ll try something else this time”?
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Post by soxinnj on Aug 6, 2019 16:08:07 GMT -5
As has been mentioned a few times in this thread already, the AFL is roughly AA/AAA in level of competition. It's an aggressive assignment for a player who was in Salem, never mind in Greenville. Shugart will likely go to Instructs to continue making up the IP he lost while suspended. Aggressive? Good! They should be. It's not like it would kill his confidence or he would have to pitch to many innings. Not in the AFL. The Sox are to conservative at times with some players. They need to push em, show em they believe in em. Be aggressive & support em. Why is Chatham still in AA & Fitzgerald in A? I think for some players keeping them down hurts more then advancing them. I'd like to see the Sox be more aggressive at times. See Durbin Feltman’s Season this year as to why being “aggressive” can hurt You never know what happens to a hitter or pitcher who is forced to adjust too fast at a level they don’t belong at.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2019 17:04:06 GMT -5
I really have no idea who could go. Probably no one that exciting other than maybe Houck. Most of their decent prospects aren't ready to go. Maybe someone like Chad De La Guera who will only get something like 70 games this year because of injuries. Do they have to send a certain number of players? I thought about Mata if they put him in the bullpen now and leave him there just to get a little experience and then go back to starting next spring.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2019 21:28:57 GMT -5
I really have no idea who could go. Probably no one that exciting other than maybe Houck. Most of their decent prospects aren't ready to go. Maybe someone like Chad De La Guera who will only get something like 70 games this year because of injuries. Do they have to send a certain number of players? I thought about Mata if they put him in the bullpen now and leave him there just to get a little experience and then go back to starting next spring. I really don't want to chance extending Mata's innings. Does Venezuela have a winter league ?
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 6, 2019 21:45:42 GMT -5
CJ Chatham is hitting .289/.316/.375 since May 1. Ryan Fitzgerald is at .256/.335/.337 since May 15. Promoting players before the league has had a chance to make an adjustment (and, in turn, the players getting a chance to adjust to the adjustment) does them a disservice. Question: when you say “adjustments,” what kind of scouting is going on at the minor league level? Like, do they have advance scouts/analysts preparing reports, video, heatmaps, etc for the players, making sure the league will find holes in a player’s swing, and really force an adjustment like at the MLB level, or is it just like “I threw that dude a low fastball back in April and he hit a double, so I guess I’ll try something else this time”? That's a really good question. In general, it's a function of the divisions being smaller and teams seeing each other so often that they make adjustments based on their own observations and those of teammates and the coaching staff. But I wonder how much of the technological advances have gotten to the minor leagues. Most parks have statcast now, so I'd have to think there's more of that.
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