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8/8-8/11 Red Sox vs. Angels Series Thread
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 9, 2019 21:31:22 GMT -5
man...the Angels are getting crushed tonight.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 9, 2019 21:32:31 GMT -5
It's always a sunny parade when the boys are winnin'. Plus if Celeveland keeps winning, then they are winning the division and now you have to worry about the Twins, not Celeveland. Who are currently more games over the Sox.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 9, 2019 21:32:42 GMT -5
man...the Angels are getting crushed tonight. Except JBJ.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 9, 2019 21:34:25 GMT -5
It's always a sunny parade when the boys are winnin'. Plus if Celeveland keeps winning, then they are winning the division and now you have to worry about the Twins, not Celeveland. For me, I only worry about the game at hand. Start thinking about where they will be in playoff seeding with 2 or 3 weeks left, if they make it all. A lot can change in baseball over a 10 game period. We know they aren't winning the division, but everything else is still in play.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 9, 2019 21:34:59 GMT -5
man...the Angels are getting crushed tonight. Except JBJ. I know. Feel genuinely bad for the guy.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2019 21:35:01 GMT -5
Plus if Celeveland keeps winning, then they are winning the division and now you have to worry about the Twins, not Celeveland. Who are currently more games over the Sox. What? I think a run is theoretically possible if the Sox go on a invincible streak the next 3 weeks. The David Price news gets you so bummed out though, that I don't see it. You see them crush the terrible Angels and it gets your spirits high for a moment, but geeze. It's hard to recover from losing Price.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 9, 2019 21:45:25 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 9, 2019 21:46:49 GMT -5
lets hope for the best tomorrow !!!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 9, 2019 21:55:31 GMT -5
Who are currently more games over the Sox. What? I think a run is theoretically possible if the Sox go on a invincible streak the next 3 weeks. The David Price news gets you so bummed out though, that I don't see it. You see them crush the terrible Angels and it gets your spirits high for a moment, but geeze. It's hard to recover from losing Price. Since the Twins are further ahead of the Sox than the Indians it makes it less probable even it Cleveland dethrones them.
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Post by caseytins on Aug 9, 2019 22:14:03 GMT -5
Devers is now leading the AL in RBI. Not bad for a 22 year old.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2019 22:32:57 GMT -5
What? I think a run is theoretically possible if the Sox go on a invincible streak the next 3 weeks. The David Price news gets you so bummed out though, that I don't see it. You see them crush the terrible Angels and it gets your spirits high for a moment, but geeze. It's hard to recover from losing Price. Since the Twins are further ahead of the Sox than the Indians it makes it less probable even it Cleveland dethrones them. The Twins are one game ahead or even dead tied in the standings.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 9, 2019 22:38:01 GMT -5
Since the Twins are further ahead of the Sox than the Indians it makes it less probable even it Cleveland dethrones them. The Twins are one game ahead or even dead tied in the standings. You're right, but the Sox are still 9.0 back from both.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2019 22:48:26 GMT -5
The Twins are one game ahead or even dead tied in the standings. You're right, but the Sox are still 9.0 back from both. Yeap, the Sox need to crush the next 3 weeks to have a realistic shot of catching anyone.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 10, 2019 0:34:01 GMT -5
You're right, but the Sox are still 9.0 back from both. Yeap, the Sox need to crush the next 3 weeks to have a realistic shot of catching anyone. Rays won. I honestly don't think there's enough time for them with only 44 games left. Two teams would need to have an epic collapse while the Red Sox got white hot.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 10, 2019 8:15:26 GMT -5
All the team can do is keep playing hard, keep winning and let the chips fall where they may. Nice win last night.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2019 10:03:38 GMT -5
I brought up prior years because you said "Maybe one year we'll get "ACE" stuff" and we've gotten plenty of ACE stuff from him. I'd bet money on Cole being worse than Sale moving forward and also way more expensive with a longer contract. You cannot just evaluate players on a large handful of starts when they're likely Hall of Fame pitchers. Bounce backs are likely. Sale's contract is so freaking cheap it's ridiculous for a pitcher of his caliber. I brought up Porcello because he only makes $4M per season less than Sale will. Cole: 2.87 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 2.81 xFIP, 12.98 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, LOB% 81.6%, BABIP .279, xwOBA .257 (.292 for his career) Sale: 4.41 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 2.97 xFIP, 13.18 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, LOB% 67.3%, BABIP .312, xwOBA .284 (.271 for his career) And this is in Sale's worst season, while it's Cole's best by far. That LOB% is extremely poor for Sale and extremely too good for Cole, so regression for both of them is a sure thing. Also, you are not considering what moving Cole to the AL East would do to him. Pitching extra games in Yankee Stadium instead of Oakland means something more than you get to see with even league adjusted stats. I usually agree with you but we're on opposite sides of the fence on this for the most part but I'm open to change. When I said "maybe one year we'll get an ACE" I meant future -- not past. The context of my post is about Sale "going forward" - his "contract going forward." Not his past. Further, I don't understand why you bring up "career." It comes down to what he will be in 2020 and beyond. Why would you bring up past when we are talking his contract going forward? I have said on here many times I loved the trade for Sale at the time and throughout his career here. As far as betting i wish we could. From 2020--2022 IMO Cole will be better. I wish I could bet you -- but three years is too long for a bet- so I'll have to decline the bet. Then again I don't like to bet against my teams/players. While you say I "cannot do" I think you "cannot" bring up HOf past and project it any manner going forward. I don't agree any mention of Sale's past unless you think he is "that" going forward. The fact it is worst Sale's worst season (as you mention) yet why not bring up last year's arm injury while bringing up his drop in velocity this year while bringing up his violent delivery while bringing up his age? IMO they should all be a part in projecting in his future - at least much more than what he did 2-5 years ago. As far "vs Yanks" -- if his fastball velocity is down and he is lefty going against a stacked righty team -- why would I believe he is going to pitch well against them going forward? Because he is "Chris Sale?" It doesn't mean I wouldn't sign him but telling me about the yanks-- it's an excuse imo. Sale doesn't need to win the ERA battle or XFIP battle he just needs to be much more effective vs the Yanks than this year's disaster. OFC I expect he will - but how much? I don't know. IMo he is a major risk vs the Yanks going forward if you want to use the Yanks as your barometer. All the above are points I disagree with you on. No way I think Sale is going to stink only that I think they could've spent their money much better for example on COle whom I believe will be superior from 2020 to around 2022. My guess is that's about their shelf life. OFC they might hand on and be "crafty." Anyways, if you want to mention more or less okay I'll listen. ** But I don't disagree with you in terms of the stats you are flashing on me. Maybe they could change things -- I could change my mind-- I just don't understand a lot of times why you and others (maybe the mods too) would flash stats like this if we are discussing "future." I am in no way saying that you're wrong for doing it but -- I'd like to know - why you think they are relevant vs the combination of ERA, velocity decline, recent prior injury, violent delivery (more susceptible to injury) and age?Or--- why shouldn't I use these?
For example why would i care about you flashing me "XFIP" vs the bold? Why reject everything in bold? It is normal for a fastball pitcher who hits 31 in 2020 with injury issues last year to begin his decline shortly, isn't it? With his 31 year age in 2020 why wouldn't I expect a heavy decline in 2020 or 2021 based on the injury as well? I guess that is what makes me thick. There is something I am missing I think. Unfortunately, I'm frustrated that I think DD ignored everything in bold and I feel overpaid when he could have waited. I think we could have done better unless someone could explain why the combination of ERA, velocity decline, recent prior injury, violent delivery (more susceptible to injury) and age, should be overlooked vs the contract he got? All these things in bold don't matter much? Again I'll reiterate I don't think Sale is going to stink. Not at all. Though
I don't understand why I should throw out all of the bold. What am I missing? ERA - Really? I spelled out why Sale is pitching about the same as Cole this year in an off year while Cole is having his best possible year. You have to look at the peripherals to figure out if they "deserve" the ERAs they have. Neither do. Velocity decline - he was up to 98 in his last start. He does not throw as hard all the time because it leads to wearing down. He has shown he can be effective at lower velocity. The slider is a much bigger issue with the stupid juiced ball with smooth seams. His velocity is down and yet leads the majors in K/9. Recent prior injury - he hasn't been hurt all year. He wasn't hurt before last year. Violent delivery - see above. Age - so? It's not like the 1.5 years that Cole has makes it a no-brainer. Add - you do not know if the Red Sox could get Cole unless they give him a blank check like they did with Price. There's no way in hell that a 5 year/$25.6M AAV contract is going to get it done. If both were free agents, I'd expect Sale to get more because he's a far better pitcher with a much longer track record. I'd expect both to get way more than Sale signed for! Sale got less than Jon Lester! Sale got $6M per season and 2 years less than Price! Sale got 1 year extra and $3.6M more than Porcello! To say that he's overpaid is just plain ridiculous! The Red Sox really screwed up with how they handled Sale last year. Letting him come back to pitch that one game against Baltimore was a horrible decision. Do you remember Craig Breslow in 2014? He was so overused in 2013 that he was complete toast in 2014 and was throwing 86. Two years later he came back and was throwing 91. I think we're seeing the same thing with several pitchers this year (especially Eovaldi after throwing 100+ pitches on 2 days rest). Overreacting to a down season with one of the best pitchers in his generation is a good way to go back to the "Who's the Ace?" years. The last game Sale just pitched is not possible for just about any pitcher in the majors. He had a 99 game score. He had another start with a 102 game score. Cole has pitched one game in his career over 90 and zero this season. Sale has 3 this season and 10 in his career. There's a much higher ability level for Sale.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 10, 2019 11:11:33 GMT -5
Are you factoring in that the Twins always choke? That 100% will happen.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 10, 2019 11:26:50 GMT -5
Sale's game Thursday was one of his two best in a Sox uni, and quite possibly one of his 3 best ever. His 91 game score was his 5th best ever, and his .121 xwOBA his 6th best since Statcast started in 2015 (minimum 24 batters faced). The two correlate decently but not so strongly that the combination performance isn't super impressive.
(ESPN's game story headline said it was "solid.")
Precisely two years earlier, on 8/8/17, he put up a nearly identical pitching line in Tampa, the only difference being an extra walk that lowered his game score to 90. That's a little eerie, eh? But he had a third-best .098 xwOBA. Call it a draw.
His all-time game score high is his 93 for his 3 hit, 12 K, 0 BB shutout of the Royals on 6/5 of this year. He faced three extra batters and had a .149 xwOBA. I'm guessing that when you factor in the opposing lineup, that takes third place.
His best game ever has to be his .076 (best Statcast game), 92 (tied for 2nd) versus Texas on 6/19/15.
Pre-Statcast, he had a 92 game score against the Angels on 5/12/13, a 10-hit shutout with 7 SO. He had a really low LD%, but all the balls in play almost guarantee that his xwOBA would have been higher than Thursday night.
(He topped his 91 game score one other time, a 92 on 4/15/16, but that was barely above average for him with a .245 xwOBA. The other three games with a lower xwOBA were marred by either a (presumably cheap) HR or a high pitch count that limited him to 7 IP. One of those was the game this year against the Rockies when he fanned 17 of 24 hitters, easily the best K% in a start in MLB history for that many batters faced).
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2019 11:49:17 GMT -5
Sale's game Thursday was one of his two best in a Sox uni, and quite possibly one of his 3 best ever. His 91 game score was his 5th best ever, and his .121 xwOBA his 6th best since Statcast started in 2015 (minimum 24 batters faced). The two correlate decently but not so strongly that the combination performance isn't super impressive.
(ESPN's game story headline said it was "solid.")
Precisely two years earlier, on 8/8/17, he put up a nearly identical pitching line in Tampa, the only difference being an extra walk that lowered his game score to 90. That's a little eerie, eh? But he had a third-best .098 xwOBA. Call it a draw.
His all-time game score high is his 93 for his 3 hit, 12 K, 0 BB shutout of the Royals on 6/5 of this year. He faced three extra batters and had a .149 xwOBA. I'm guessing that when you factor in the opposing lineup, that takes third place. His best game ever has to be his .076 (best Statcast game), 92 (tied for 2nd) versus Texas on 6/19/15. Pre-Statcast, he had a 92 game score against the Angels on 5/12/13, a 10-hit shutout with 7 SO. He had a really low LD%, but all the balls in play almost guarantee that his xwOBA would have been higher than Thursday night.
(He topped his 91 game score one other time, a 92 on 4/15/16, but that was barely above average for him with a .245 xwOBA. The other three games with a lower xwOBA were marred by either a (presumably cheap) HR or a high pitch count that limited him to 7 IP. One of those was the game this year against the Rockies when he fanned 17 of 24 hitters, easily the best K% in a start in MLB history for that many batters faced). So you don't use fangraph's GS? This is just this season.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 10, 2019 12:23:00 GMT -5
ERA - Really? I spelled out why Sale is pitching about the same as Cole this year in an off year while Cole is having his best possible year. You have to look at the peripherals to figure out if they "deserve" the ERAs they have. Neither do. Velocity decline - he was up to 98 in his last start. He does not throw as hard all the time because it leads to wearing down. He has shown he can be effective at lower velocity. The slider is a much bigger issue with the stupid juiced ball with smooth seams. His velocity is down and yet leads the majors in K/9. Recent prior injury - he hasn't been hurt all year. He wasn't hurt before last year. Violent delivery - see above. Age - so? It's not like the 1.5 years that Cole has makes it a no-brainer. Add - you do not know if the Red Sox could get Cole unless they give him a blank check like they did with Price. There's no way in hell that a 5 year/$25.6M AAV contract is going to get it done. If both were free agents, I'd expect Sale to get more because he's a far better pitcher with a much longer track record. I'd expect both to get way more than Sale signed for! Sale got less than Jon Lester! Sale got $6M per season and 2 years less than Price! Sale got 1 year extra and $3.6M more than Porcello! To say that he's overpaid is just plain ridiculous! The Red Sox really screwed up with how they handled Sale last year. Letting him come back to pitch that one game against Baltimore was a horrible decision. Do you remember Craig Breslow in 2014? He was so overused in 2013 that he was complete toast in 2014 and was throwing 86. Two years later he came back and was throwing 91. I think we're seeing the same thing with several pitchers this year (especially Eovaldi after throwing 100+ pitches on 2 days rest). Overreacting to a down season with one of the best pitchers in his generation is a good way to go back to the "Who's the Ace?" years. The last game Sale just pitched is not possible for just about any pitcher in the majors. He had a 99 game score. He had another start with a 102 game score. Cole has pitched one game in his career over 90 and zero this season. Sale has 3 this season and 10 in his career. There's a much higher ability level for Sale. Whoa -- nearly nothing I agree with you on here my friend whom I usually agree with on everything. We're just going to have to agree to disagree -- and just a few points yeah-- 1.5 years is a lot. Sale last year vs this year is a lot. Last year's team vs this year's team is a lot etc. and I think you are making a mistake minimizing this year's fastball decline as if it is something random and/ or using his last start as justification. You're are going to keep seeing from this poitn going forward with maybe a level off in 2020 but after that it won;t be anything like 2017 or 2018. I don't know what you've said above will alleviate his fastball decline? Are you saying "he doesn't need it?" Or are you saying "He still has it?" Otherwise I don't understand the significance of one start vs his entire season. yes - I want the Sox to pay more for Cole. We won the FA by overpaying for Price - so we can win by overpaying for Cole. We can win with Sale too but I just think Cole will be better thus I'd pay more to get him. I'll reiterate again I don;t think Sale stinks or is bad. But Cole vs Sale I go with Cole because imo he is better and less risk and this point in their careers because Sale's fastball overall is in decline we would have gotten more out of COle. ANd as Sale's fastball continues to decline so will his ERA (That is the significance of ERA. You won;t see him touch rise and he is more likely for injury that Cole. That's hwy I pay COle more. For the ACE which Cole is I think the SOx should go above value. Sale might be next year then that's it once the f/b goes. Once that fastball goes after 2020 -- then how can i get a 2017/2018 ACE like Sale? I'm not sure we can. While you want to use Breslow as an example I think there a lot that have starters that had fastball declines at 30 years old and at 32 there fastball has declined further. I guess it's the crux of our disagreement. What you call "overreactiong to a down season" I call "probable reaction to a natural trend" of the combination of age, current injury and adding in violent delivery. I would've paid for more "assurance." I don't call that an over re-action. But as I said -- when you flashed those stats to me two pages ago I said I'm open if you could explain why I should ignore the 4 or 5 factors I mentioned in combination. AM I right in assuming that your main reply to me is that when I say his fastball is in decline you think his fastball is not in decline over the next 2 years or longer? And another point is that you think it matters little even if his fastball is decline (I do have a problem with this one if his f/b is in decline if you think that for year 1) , is that about right? Well if his fastball is like 2017 -- for 2 years (2020 an 20221) and he is in fact "Breslow" then yeah we got a good deal. But if I'm right and the trend continues in 2021 and beyond-- then we better have an ACE at some point. WHo knows maybe Eovaldi is the ACE next year or year after. Then Sale pickup would be real good too regardless of "value" if he isn't an ACE etc as long as someone else is.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2019 13:20:35 GMT -5
I explained it in my post. You don't want to read it, then fine. We're done.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 10, 2019 13:39:15 GMT -5
I explained it in my post. You don't want to read it, then fine. We're done. Okay we're done.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2019 13:44:12 GMT -5
What if Sale averaged a higher velocity fastball in 2019 than in 2016 and in 2012 and is still leading the majors in K/9?
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Post by soxjim on Aug 10, 2019 14:45:57 GMT -5
What if Sale averaged a higher velocity fastball in 2019 than in 2016 and in 2012 and is still leading the majors in K/9? I'll add what i know is that Sale has a decline this year vs the prior two with Boston. The last two is more relevant than" 2012." I can remember someone (not you) on here around 2016 trying to justify Clay Buch as projecting him to be pretty good going forward by going back as far as 2010 or 2011 or 2013 or whatever etc as justification for his argument. But in 2016 that's not the Clay B of several years prior. They cannot use it just like imo you can't use Sale of "2012." I think last two years are much more relevant when I combine the facts again -- of age, recent injury and violence of delivery. IMO 2012 has no part of this discussion because it is a different Sale. For example guys with a violent delivery we wouldn't use past history to assume he won't get injured. We'd probably feel it inevitable a guy with a violent delivery eventually gets hurt for a significant time or wears down significantly. As for 2016 - that was the year Sale cut up the throwback jersey's. I think it evident he was not in a "happy focused place" with such a lousy ballclub. Kind of like Verlander going from Det to Houston. You feel that is relevant to use 2016 with White Sox-- okay - but I don't. Overall my opinion means nothing. I admit I will be wrong a ton more than I'm right. I feel you and i are almost getting into a major fight. I don't want that. But from what I see 1-- His fastball is in decline. If anyone doesn't agree with that then they won't agree with my pov. End of story. 2-- I feel with age (31) his fastball will inevitably decline and decline. That is usually true (guys could retire or get cut) for any player. If anyone doesn't think age from 2020- 2022 won't affect his fastball much at all then they won't agree with my pov. End of story. 3-- In regards to last year's injury - if anyone thinks his injury was no big deal as a result will bounce back with his fastball then they won't agree with my pov. End of story. 4-- In regards to his violent delivery coupled with his age and recent injury - if anyone thinks his delivery is no big deal then they won't agree with my pov. End of story. But if anyone agrees with any of these in combination then there is a degree of concern. Nothing you've told me alleviates my concerns for the 4 above. I don't think it odd at all for a player at 31 years of age in which the year prior he had an injury and now showing in 2019 he has lost velocity that he will continue to lose velocity going forward in possibly 2020 but probably in 2021. Am I certain? No. But all these are signs to me that it is going to happen. ANd if all this does happen then what easy-to-read stat will show this? ERA for one. ERA is not an advanced stat but it's easy to see how it can rise if a few of my points above come to fruition. It;s just imo "the accumulation of the 4 blows above" that makes me wary of Sale vs Cole. The reason I bring up Cole so often is I get the question "if you don't sign sale, then who?"
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2019 15:02:23 GMT -5
Sale leads MLB in K/9 after a season of injury, mishandling the injury, overuse, an incredibly long post season and next to no spring training.
You'd think on a team where Koji recently dominated with an 88 mph fastball and Joe Kelly couldn't strike anyone out with a 102 mph fastball, that fans would understand that fastball velocity is nowhere near the most important factor in pitching ability. And still, Chris Sale hit 98 last night.
Sale's arm is probably halfway to home plate by the time he releases the ball. He also has a very high spin rate. He can still strike out tons of people even if he's throwing 90.
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