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Speier: Sox acquire Mike Carp for PTBNL
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 20, 2013 20:57:16 GMT -5
Well, I think JD makes a good point re Nava's OBP. But if Nava could play 2B, which he has, he can play 1B quite well. He has equal versatility to Carp. He just does not have Carp's upside. Things being equal, my guess is the Sox would keep Carp over Nava and Overbay based on slg % and upside potential. Nava throws left-handed.
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 20, 2013 21:22:18 GMT -5
My guess on compensation: If Carp sticks on the roster, Ms get a Vitek type. If not, a Jose Garcia/Ryan Dent/Gibson type or cash.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 20, 2013 21:39:31 GMT -5
My guess on compensation: If Carp sticks on the roster, Ms get a Vitek type. If not, a Jose Garcia/Ryan Dent/Gibson type or cash. No way in hell do they get someone like that.... anyway, latest tweets are more likely cash
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2013 22:53:30 GMT -5
Carp loses any offensive advantage from his better slugging numbers with a much worse plate approach and an OBP that's 30-50 points worse than Nava's. I'm not so sure about this, especially when you consider their respective ballparks. Compare Carp's career 109 wRC+ to Nava's career 100 wRC+, for instance. But I agree with your broader point that we shouldn't assume Carp is a better offensive player than Nava.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 21, 2013 7:45:58 GMT -5
I'm not so sure about this, especially when you consider their respective ballparks. Compare Carp's career 109 wRC+ to Nava's career 100 wRC+, for instance. But I agree with your broader point that we shouldn't assume Carp is a better offensive player than Nava. You make good points. One problem in analyzing is that Carp has a statistical profile that's so all over the place that it's hard to glean much from it. Very inconsistent year to year, a better offensive profile at Safeco than away from it (though Safeco isn't as tough for a lefty, so that's not quite as surprising), a heavily BABIP-skewed reverse split, etc. In 2011, when he had pretty good numbers overall, his walk rate was lower and strikeout rate was higher than his terrible 2012. While that might indicate a better approach, he was hitting a lot more ground balls and pop-ups in 2012 which is part of the reason why his batting average dropped so precipitously. With Nava, on the other hand, I feel pretty good about the type of hitter he is. OBP in the .345-.360 range, slugging in the .370-.400 area. Carp's upper end projection at this point is what... something like a .270/.335/.460 line? That's a better hitter than Nava, yes, and Carp is still only 26 for the first three months of the season. It's not clear-cut, for sure, and my "30 to 50 points of OBP" was probably a tad dismissive. Still, I tend to be OBP-centric, and if Carp can't get his about .320, he'd need to slug close to .500 to be as valuable a hitter as Nava. Long story short, I'm sticking by my original point. If I were choosing a starting left fielder, I'd take Nava, though I certainly won't fault someone who disagrees. As a backup though, I think Carp's versatility and power make him a better fit.
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Post by benfromma on Feb 21, 2013 8:18:21 GMT -5
If we could look up in the dictionary the definition of effort we would want from a mlb player Daniel Nava would be the example of that definition.Most fans would love to see Nava on the team because by like him and want him to succeed. But he has flaws he has improved his defense but still is a liability in RF and is only an average hitter nothing special. So Nava's main value is that he has options and can provide depth to the MLB club. Sweeney (defense) will be the backup OF and Carp will be the backup 1B and LF (against some RH pitching. But if Carp, Sweeney or Nava are starting for any significant amount of time the team probably would want other options in order to compete for a playoff berth.
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Post by hammerhead on Feb 21, 2013 8:59:44 GMT -5
The previous post hits the nail right on the head. Assuming that Carp, Nava and Sweeney all have similar ST, .OBP, defense, positional flexability etc. won't make a lick of difference. The biggest thing preventing Nava from making this team is the fact that he has options. Ben C can just stash Nava at AAA and see what we have in Carp as a platoon mate for Gomes/Backup 1st baseman. If Carp sucks you simply call up Nava and DFA Carp, but if you can get a reasonable proximity to Carp's minor league numbers then Carp is in Boston for the duration. Carp was aquired for this role and I think he will get every shot at making the team even at Nava's expense. The only way I see Carp getting DFA is if he's simply pathetic all ST.
I think Carp has quite a bit more upside then a lot of people are giving him credit for. His minor league numbers are pretty tremendous and age appropriate. He hit well in not just the PCL but in AA Binghamton which if I remember correctly is a neutral park. Most of his PCL time was spent at Tacoma, which is a pretty poor hitters park for the PCL...He also hit in high A down in Florida. He's still just 26 and some of his poor results in 2012 can be explained away by injury and Safeco. He will also make a decent pinch hitter for interleague and if Drew is a dud at the plate or gets injured and Iglesias is the SS.
This pick-up is basically no-risk with the chances of a moderate reward. One of the more hard fought battles in ST will be for this one (or two) roster slot between Nava, Carp, Sweeney and to some extent Overbay. To some extent the hot hand will probably make the team, but roster flexability ie. options will make a huge difference.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 22, 2013 19:09:07 GMT -5
If we could look up in the dictionary the definition of effort we would want from a mlb player Daniel Nava would be the example of that definition.Most fans would love to see Nava on the team because by like him and want him to succeed. But he has flaws he has improved his defense but still is a liability in RF and is only an average hitter nothing special. So Nava's main value is that he has options and can provide depth to the MLB club. Sweeney (defense) will be the backup OF and Carp will be the backup 1B and LF (against some RH pitching. But if Carp, Sweeney or Nava are starting for any significant amount of time the team probably would want other options in order to compete for a playoff berth. Hard not to agree with this. I love OBP as much as anyone (JD)...disciplined, dirt-dog stuff ....and hope that the Sox of 2013 will collectively morph back to that modality....including Middlebrooks (who presently seems reluctant). If a team has 3-4 players who are slashers (as last year), then the overall 'process' is undermined. Even mighty Papi learned that he has to be selective to optimally help the team. Nava's strength is his OBP and outstanding strike zone judgment. But, to me, he does not possess the native ability to drive a ball the way a contending team would require from a starting corner OF. There is fair defense but little arm. Nava maximizes his ability for which he is to be commended, but he is what he is and that IMO is a AAAA or fill-in MLB player. Overbay is also a pretty well-known commodity at this point. I hope that Carp, with his youth, MiLB numbers and considering all his injuries, is closer to the prototype corner OF...at least in platoon with Gomes.
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