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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 17, 2019 21:14:08 GMT -5
You can predict that a guy who breaks down at the end of every single season is going to be fr more likely to break down than players who don't have such a history. I love Sale, love watching him pitch, loved the trade for him, was super excited that I got to see him in the World Series game I went to. But that was a flat-out dumb contract. It was obviously a bad investment the second it was inked. It's interesting how tight lipped the organization and Sale were about his shoulder last season, how Chris Sale accepted a contract in his walk year, and how the Red Sox had him soft tossing in April to live hitters (which, I'd be pissed if I was a fan going to the game). It just seems like both sides knew Sale was a health concern moving forward. I doubt they suspected TJ was on the horizon, but just adding it up I did wonder why Sale accepted an extension. FWIW, I still don't believe for one second that any starter, much less Chris f'n Sale, pitches a major league game and doesn't throw their best fastball at least once. www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=His peak velos never fully came back after he went on the DL last year.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 17, 2019 21:29:14 GMT -5
You can predict that a guy who breaks down at the end of every single season is going to be fr more likely to break down than players who don't have such a history. I love Sale, love watching him pitch, loved the trade for him, was super excited that I got to see him in the World Series game I went to. But that was a flat-out dumb contract. It was obviously a bad investment the second it was inked. This wasn't such an inevitability, this is something that could happen with any pitcher. You don't let Sale walk because you think he's going to get injured eventually, the fact that he did doesn't prove the decision was wrong. Take the Steph Curry contract as an example, at the time it was scrutinized because he was injury prone and a lot of talking heads didn't think his ankles would hold. Look what happened. Injuries are not an exact science and it's certainly not one that is done by the eye test. I am not saying it was dumb. Heck right now it could still be nothing. But because you choose to ignore the signs of a violent delivery, recent injuries, age, fastball decline and he consistently is either fading at season;s end and last year he got hurt-- doesn't make your assumptions right either. But I have to say I don;t remember tizzle complaining about Sale - and I think that would be valid point for some posters. After the fact of an injury all of us fans seem to jump out and say "I knew it was wrong." Nobody "knew" nothing imo.
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Post by orion09 on Aug 17, 2019 21:31:04 GMT -5
It's interesting how tight lipped the organization and Sale were about his shoulder last season, how Chris Sale accepted a contract in his walk year, and how the Red Sox had him soft tossing in April to live hitters (which, I'd be pissed if I was a fan going to the game). It just seems like both sides knew Sale was a health concern moving forward. I doubt they suspected TJ was on the horizon, but just adding it up I did wonder why Sale accepted an extension. FWIW, I still don't believe for one second that any starter, much less Chris f'n Sale, pitches a major league game and doesn't throw their best fastball at least once. www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=His peak velos never fully came back after he went on the DL last year. This is interesting. If you draw a line over his peak velos going back to 2012, guess which stretch is by far the highest of his career? You wonder if he got a little amped up with the season they were having, started overthrowing, and finally pushed his shoulder over the edge.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 17, 2019 21:32:32 GMT -5
I've said since the beginning I didn't like the deal so it's not hindsight. He's going to be over 30. He was gassed at the end of 2 years ago and got hurt at the end of last year. They completely babied him this year to try and preserve his arm. That's not a great optic for a 5 year extension when he's getting older. Now we know the skinny guy with a violent delivery needs TJ.LOL, after 1600 innings of a 3.03 ERA, the "Chris Sale is going to get hurt" crew is finally vindicated. Before his new deal even kicked in. Yes, vindicated indeed since I loved the trade at the time and wanted to wait till he hit free agency to recalibrate and see his value. I'd rather wait and pay more. They didn't and missed big.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 17, 2019 21:34:47 GMT -5
It's interesting how tight lipped the organization and Sale were about his shoulder last season, how Chris Sale accepted a contract in his walk year, and how the Red Sox had him soft tossing in April to live hitters (which, I'd be pissed if I was a fan going to the game). It just seems like both sides knew Sale was a health concern moving forward. I doubt they suspected TJ was on the horizon, but just adding it up I did wonder why Sale accepted an extension. FWIW, I still don't believe for one second that any starter, much less Chris f'n Sale, pitches a major league game and doesn't throw their best fastball at least once. www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=His peak velos never fully came back after he went on the DL last year. He was throwing in the mid 80s in April. If that wasn't planned then that's concerning.
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Sale to IL
Aug 17, 2019 21:46:02 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Aug 17, 2019 21:46:02 GMT -5
And just as easily, they could have tried to replace Sale with Cole who then needed TJS immediately. That's how it is with pitchers. What should they do instead? Not have any? Not try to have good ones? Wait until the season is over and pay extra if need be. The fact he had a bad season (before his contract kicked in, and bad by his standards) and now missing year 1 of the extension isn't great. He really needs to dominate in the 4 years after. I think you’re going way too far down disaster road here. Let’s wait and see how serious it is before declaring 2020 dead.
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Post by orion09 on Aug 17, 2019 21:50:05 GMT -5
I also wonder whether the elbow injury is a result of compensating for his weak shoulder.
His mechanics have clearly been out-of-whack all year. Even if it's not a conscious thing, knowing that your shoulder is a ticking time bomb might be enough to make you alter your mechanics slightly. (See Rodriguez, Eduardo, knee.)
Of course, plenty of healthy, mechanically-sound pitchers suffer UCL injuries. But given how public they've been about his mechanical struggles this year, I wonder.
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Sale to IL
Aug 17, 2019 21:51:53 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 17, 2019 21:51:53 GMT -5
Wait until the season is over and pay extra if need be. The fact he had a bad season (before his contract kicked in, and bad by his standards) and now missing year 1 of the extension isn't great. He really needs to dominate in the 4 years after. I think you’re going way too far down disaster road here. Let’s wait and see how serious it is before declaring 2020 dead. I think second opinion to dr. James Andrews means TJ 95% of the time. Would love to be wrong, but you don't typically see him unless something is seriously wrong. I'll concede the value for his caliber pitcher is pretty good. Originally I thought it was 30 towards the tax, but Jimed corrected me on that and 25 million for him is great. On the same token, you can't say the risks weren't there. Chris Sale knew as much which is why he'd take a deal instead of hitting the market. On his end, he made the smart financial move now. He's slender, he throws violently, he's typically faded at the end of every year, got hurt last year and now they came in with a plan for him. His fastball is declining and he's over 30.
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Sale to IL
Aug 17, 2019 21:52:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sarasoxer on Aug 17, 2019 21:52:13 GMT -5
LOL, after 1600 innings of a 3.03 ERA, the "Chris Sale is going to get hurt" crew is finally vindicated. Before his new deal even kicked in. Yes, vindicated indeed since I loved the trade at the time and wanted to wait till he hit free agency to recalibrate and see his value. I'd rather wait and pay more. They didn't and missed big. But we don't know that they've missed anything. Regardless, so much of baseball is uncertainty.. risk/reward...You pays yer money and takes yer chances. We signed Sale for a discount. If he'd had a great year, we might be faced with paying him another 10mm per. If we can't afford both Mookie and JDM, how could we add more bucks for Sale? Perhaps only a trip to Delphi could have provided the 'right' choice.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 17, 2019 21:53:05 GMT -5
He was throwing in the mid 80s in April. If that wasn't planned then that's concerning. Well, he's getting a second opinion from Dr. Andrews so yeah it I guess it was concerning.
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Sale to IL
Aug 17, 2019 21:54:46 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Aug 17, 2019 21:54:46 GMT -5
This wasn't such an inevitability, this is something that could happen with any pitcher. You don't let Sale walk because you think he's going to get injured eventually, the fact that he did doesn't prove the decision was wrong. Take the Steph Curry contract as an example, at the time it was scrutinized because he was injury prone and a lot of talking heads didn't think his ankles would hold. Look what happened. Injuries are not an exact science and it's certainly not one that is done by the eye test. I am not saying it was dumb. Heck right now it could still be nothing. But because you choose to ignore the signs of a violent delivery, recent injuries, age, fastball decline and he consistently is either fading at season;s end and last year he got hurt-- doesn't make your assumptions right either. But I have to say I don;t remember tizzle complaining about Sale - and I think that would be valid point for some posters. After the fact of an injury all of us fans seem to jump out and say "I knew it was wrong." Nobody "knew" nothing imo. Yeah, I agree. I mean, you and I had some heated but respectful debate re: the trade at the time, and these were all issues I brought up. I still don’t think it was a “bad” trade, nor a “bad” extension. They got a discount in yrs/AAV because he was coming off shoulder trouble. But he’s still on the (very) short list of best MLB pitchers out there, and short list of best in the last quarter-century. It was a gamble, as ALL PITCHERS ARE. Delivery and build aside, he’d been very healthy for his career, which is the best forward predictor. My issues with the trade were solely about long-term value, and that’s inherent in that sort of trade. I absolutely had no issue with Sale as the target, because he’s awesome. A pop-up elbow twinge doesn’t necessarily mean he’s completely done. Unsurprisingly people are losing their sh*t, but I’m still glad they have him. They won a WS and it’s no certainty he can’t recover. It’s all part of doing business in baseball.
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Sale to IL
Aug 17, 2019 21:57:45 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Aug 17, 2019 21:57:45 GMT -5
I also wonder whether the elbow injury is a result of compensating for his weak shoulder. His mechanics have clearly been out-of-whack all year. Even if it's not a conscious thing, knowing that your shoulder is a ticking time bomb might be enough to make you alter your mechanics slightly. (See Rodriguez, Eduardo, knee.) Of course, plenty of healthy, mechanically-sound pitchers suffer UCL injuries. But given how public they've been about his mechanical struggles this year, I wonder. I was just thinking the same. His command/find control are off, and the velo drop seems more mechanical than “permanent,” a la Kershaw. It’s entirely possible he had just one pitch where he was out of whack and really irritated something. I’d like to see him get rest, a green light in the offseason, and some Driveline biomechanical analysis.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 17, 2019 22:11:13 GMT -5
This elbow issue and throwing in the 80's stuff earlier this season in April i see posted above? never saw any grief regarding Sale's health when he was barely cracking 90mph, even some upper 80's a certain chilly April of 2018 when he dominated the Chisox at fenway.
Where was all those people then? For the record, I was and am still very much in favor of the extension.
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Post by tizzle on Aug 17, 2019 22:13:58 GMT -5
You can predict that a guy who breaks down at the end of every single season is going to be fr more likely to break down than players who don't have such a history. I love Sale, love watching him pitch, loved the trade for him, was super excited that I got to see him in the World Series game I went to. But that was a flat-out dumb contract. It was obviously a bad investment the second it was inked. Alright so who are you going to replace him with if you let Sale go? Don't say Cole as teams are going to pay stupid money. Newsflash, there was no plan B behind Sale. We had money issues to begin with, and Sale was willing to sign a reasonable contract. Add in the fact that our plan A in our Minor League System is coming of TJS and we have no plan B there either. It sucks and you could monday QB about how you would do things different, but it was the right move at the time. Don't give up on Sale either. I trust him to come back. It will be hard, but he is going to work hard to come back. LOL. Who are you going to replace him with if he's out next year with $29 mil less to spend? There are a lot of ways to spend money or to build a team. But bad investments don't become good ones because you don't know exactly where else you would have spent your capital.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 18, 2019 1:35:43 GMT -5
I think the thing to do is start accumulating low-cost replacements not for Sale, but for Porcello. Sort out Sale when you have more info. Think of it this way: Sale+Porcello is $34M this year. So if you spend under $5M for Porcello’s replacement, you stay salary-neutral there. So shoot for that answer right now. It’s always possible (Charlie Morton) to find good pitchers in the offseason on reasonable deals. They don’t need to “replace” Sale, if he’s out...they just need to *approximate* him. For the team to win, other things will have to go right, too. They didn’t this year. But if they can ID and acquire a 3-4 WAR pitcher, the 2-3 wins can be made up elsewhere, a lot easier than 5-7 wins can. And part of that will e made up by replacing Porcello’s poor performance. My suggestions:
1) Promote Daniel McGrath. Give him Sale’s spot. This is the longest of long shots, but neither he, nor the team, has anything to lose. Nothing. If he’s bad, well the Sox weren’t going to the playoffs anyway. And they get better draft position. But if he’s good, they have another potentially viable MLB starter who *might* replace Porcello, at $19.5M in savings and with 6 more years of control. At 25, he should handle it well, and he’s just entering his prime, when guys are learning to *pitch*. As unlikely as it is, maybe he’s another Jamie Moyer. Find out ASAP. Maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle and he goes Doyle Alexander and they make the playoffs.
2) Jon Gray. Still a potential breakout performer, only has 2 years left so he’ll cost a bit more $-wise, but I bet CO is more willing to move him so they can get value before his salary really escalates. Already better than Porcello, but with huge upside. Huge change-of-scenery candidate. Prospect cost should be **well** below what the Yankees paid for Paxton, meaning the Sox can do it.
3) Kolby Allard. His velo is up 3.4 mph from Atlanta. I doubt Texas moves him now, but I’d ask. He’s still young and sitting 93 from the left is average for a starter. His secondaries are solid. Depending on how enamored TX is, the cost might be doable.
4) Dylan Bundy. Already as good as Porcello this year. If someone could convince him to pitch backwards, he could break out. Make him stop throwing all those 4FBs that get lit up, lead with his truly excellent SL and very good change, and mix in his 2FB. Reserve the 4 FB for the way Workman does: whiffs up and often out of the zone. Run a mix like 40-45% SL, 20-25% CH, 15-20% 4FB, 15-20% 2FB, 5% CB. I think Bundy is still stuck thinking of himself as the 100-mph phenom. But he’s also entering his prime, and if he can buy in and **pitch**, I think he can be actually quite good, maybe outstanding. He’s been healthy, eats innings, and his GB rate is rising. Basically, that’s what Porcello gave them. I think Bundy can do the same or better. **He** has two more years at fairly reasonable cost and shouldn’t hurt prospect-wise at all. His biggest bugaboo is the HR: replacing the 4FB with SL (which might be a 70) and CH (60) and going with the sinker to get GB should go a long way towards fixing that. And then the 4FB plays up, like it has with Workman, because the spin is actually pretty good, but he’s up in the zone more and throwing it less.
5) The Sox can easily try McGrath, and should be able to acquire one of the others pretty easily without much pain. That makes it very likely Porcello’s been replaced (or even improved upon) for under $5M, or close to it. Then, they go looking for Sale’s *approximation.” Hell, maybe it’s Cole. But saving $15M on Porcello makes $30M for Cole a lot more bearable. Figure it out as you go along, but first things first...replace the guy you *know* isn’t coming back.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 18, 2019 1:43:46 GMT -5
This elbow issue and throwing in the 80's stuff earlier this season in April i see posted above? never saw any grief regarding Sale's health when he was barely cracking 90mph, even some upper 80's a certain chilly April of 2018 when he dominated the Chisox at fenway. Where was all those people then? For the record, I was and am still very much in favor of the extension. You can read the thread when Sale was extended I posted that I'd prefer they didn't at that time. And my arguments before his injury included that he was hurt lats year and has a violent delivery. Though I'd have no way of knowing when he'd be hurt.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 18, 2019 1:57:05 GMT -5
Jon Gray really has been very good. He’s making 2.9M this year and should get $5M this winter. He’s been worth 2.9 fWAR and **4.9** bWAR. The Paxton deal included a 50-55FV, and a couple 40-45s. This is doable for the Sox. Gray's been sitting 96, and has peripherals more in line with expectations. Like Paxton did, he has two years. But he’s also been pretty mediocre recently and doesn’t have the helium Paxton did. I think the Sox could get this done. Dalbec might even be intriguing as a 1b option who could also man 3rd if Arenado goes down. His bat would benefit from CO because breakers would break less; he hits lots of FB and Coors is a great place to do it. Add in a couple more pieces like Ward and Feltman, and maybe a low-level lotto ticket...I think it makes sense. I’d try to avoid giving up Casas, Darwinzon, Mata, or Houck, or Duran...but I’d strongly consider Houck or Duran. Gray could actually very possibly **approximate Sale** And he’s also been generally pretty healthy, and he’s just 28. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14916&position=Pwww.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayjo02.shtml
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Post by jbsox on Aug 18, 2019 6:42:24 GMT -5
Just scanning the free agent market here are some of the bigger name SP: Strasburg, Hamels, Arrieta, Darvish, Rhu, Hill, Cole, Roark, Ordorizzi, Nova, Gibson, Wacha, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Teheran, Quintana, Pineda, Miley, Archer, wainwright, Anderson, Bailey, Porcello, and old friend Pomeranz. Lol
I was hoping anyway for a Porcello replacement (or maybe bring him back on a cheaper deal). Fingers crossed Sale doesn’t need TJS, but if so maybe we could squeeze in 2 guys out this group like Wheeler and Bumgarner? Maybe a short deal for Hamels or Arrieta, or someone you hope has a bounce back year.
Price and Erod have been mostly solid this year, and I expect more of the same next year. We really need Eovaldi to bounce back next year, sign 1 or 2 of these guys, or a low cost trade like telson13 suggested, maybe we have a surprise like McGrath, Houck taking the next step, or Wright coming back, and with our offense we are back in business.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 18, 2019 6:55:47 GMT -5
The last thing I did before seeing the story was check out how the A's did against the Astros this afternoon, which of course got me pissed.
Looks like I picked the wrong day to give up on giving up on the season.
Ditto! I started the day saying it could be a thrilling end, NOT!! All I can say if it is TJ is next year is already toast, just no options. No money and no top prospect to step up and deliver. Could this precipitate a busy offseason that includes trading big names like Mookie and JBJ? Obviously! I would pay Mookie and move him to CF. Big question to me is what is JBJ worth out there in MLB FA land? Does he get 10-12 million a year from someone? Interesting to me what his value is. Pedro, Porcello has value. He has basically pitched 30+ starts every season for 11 years and he is only 30. He has won a CY and had some other great years. Pitchers have down years, I bet he still has some very good years left in him. Inning eaters are important when at league average.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 18, 2019 7:37:23 GMT -5
IF Sale is out for the 2020 season, big IF at this point, then they’d be smart to use the season as a retool. Get below the tax lines and trade some pieces, like Mookie to restock the system a bit. I wouldn’t give up on the year, but I fill out the roster intelligently like Tampa does versus an all or nothing approach. It’d be nice if they used some scouts rather than a computer as well. I don’t need to watch a bum who can’t pitch because his spin rate is high.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 18, 2019 8:58:05 GMT -5
The Red Sox were obviously working off a lot more information than this but... man, if you want a chart that makes the Sale extension look like an extremely bad idea, I think we've located it.
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Post by patford on Aug 18, 2019 10:33:12 GMT -5
The Sox had an MRI done which did not show an ulnar collateral ligament tear or rupture. At a minimum Sale is done for the year. Realistically he should just go ahead and have the surgery done although we have seen pitchers like David Price able to work through inflammation and strain with proper rest and rehabilitation. As I've opined previously the Sale extension was a huge mistake and I'm amazed Dombrowski didn't wait given the number of red flags. In spite of all his strikeouts and periods of dominance Sale often is approaching 100 pitches through five innings and rarely goes seven or more. And he has a well documented history of fading in the second half of a season as well as later in games.
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Sale to IL
Aug 18, 2019 10:43:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by orion09 on Aug 18, 2019 10:43:34 GMT -5
The Sox had an MRI done which did not show an ulnar collateral ligament tear or rupture. At a minimum Sale is done for the year. Realistically he should just go ahead and have the surgery done although we have seen pitchers like David Price able to work through inflammation and strain with proper rest and rehabilitation. As I've opined previously the Sale extension was a huge mistake and I'm amazed Dombrowski didn't wait given the number of red flags. In spite of all his strikeouts and periods of dominance Sale often is approaching 100 pitches through five innings and rarely goes seven or more. And he has a well documented history of fading in the second half of a season as well as later in games. Haven’t seen that, do you have a source?
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Sale to IL
Aug 18, 2019 11:17:01 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by jbsox on Aug 18, 2019 11:17:01 GMT -5
Just scanning the free agent market here are some of the bigger name SP: Strasburg, Hamels, Arrieta, Darvish, Rhu, Hill, Cole, Roark, Ordorizzi, Nova, Gibson, Wacha, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Teheran, Quintana, Pineda, Miley, Archer, wainwright, Anderson, Bailey, Porcello, and old friend Pomeranz. Lol I was hoping anyway for a Porcello replacement (or maybe bring him back on a cheaper deal). Fingers crossed Sale doesn’t need TJS, but if so maybe we could squeeze in 2 guys out this group like Wheeler and Bumgarner? Maybe a short deal for Hamels or Arrieta, or someone you hope has a bounce back year. Price and Erod have been mostly solid this year, and I expect more of the same next year. We really need Eovaldi to bounce back next year, sign 1 or 2 of these guys, or a low cost trade like telson13 suggested, maybe we have a surprise like McGrath, Houck taking the next step, or Wright coming back, and with our offense we are back in business. Just adding to what I wrote earlier even if Sale comes back healthy still go after 2 starting pitchers lol(within budget). employ a semi 6 man rotation letting some skip an occasional start to keep everyone fresh, good insurance if 1 gets hurt, and if everything works out perfectly shift Eovaldi over to the bullpen. Have Eovaldi plug in the whole where needed. Hopefully then we won’t see too many triple A pitchers like this year stumbling in their starts.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 18, 2019 11:18:15 GMT -5
The Sox had an MRI done which did not show an ulnar collateral ligament tear or rupture. At a minimum Sale is done for the year. Realistically he should just go ahead and have the surgery done although we have seen pitchers like David Price able to work through inflammation and strain with proper rest and rehabilitation. As I've opined previously the Sale extension was a huge mistake and I'm amazed Dombrowski didn't wait given the number of red flags. In spite of all his strikeouts and periods of dominance Sale often is approaching 100 pitches through five innings and rarely goes seven or more. And he has a well documented history of fading in the second half of a season as well as later in games. Do you have a link on this? Last I read Dr. Andrews was going to read the MRI. Thanks!
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