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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 21, 2019 11:36:41 GMT -5
Pedro his average velocity by month is 92, 93, 94, 93, and 93. Which is only slightly up from his 2017 numbers. He topped out at 96 in 2017 and 95 in 2018.
Do you really think that small difference in his fastball is really the reason he's been so good this year and not the dramatic change in his use of his curve?
Doesn't it make sense that the velocity increase isn't he has a better fastball, but by throwing less of them he hasn't worn down as much? Hence the slight increase in overall velocity, yet no change in his top velocity, which was actually higher in 2017. We are talking about a rather small change in his fastball compared to 2017 and he hasn't shown the 97 mph he did in 2013 either. He's not averaging 95 mph for even a month this year and has been at 93 for the last two months.
There really hasn't been a huge change, nothing that wasn't unlikely to happen. Pitchers velocities go up and down. Like I'd agree with you if he was averaging 95 plus on average, not the 93.2 he is, compared to 92.5 in 2017. This is much more he's become a better pitcher and not just a thrower.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 22, 2019 11:21:21 GMT -5
See, he's right, even when he's wrong. Workman is great this year because of his fastball, not the drastically increased use of his curve ball, which has always been plus. No one ever could have seen a reason to not DFA him before. Yup. I really feel compelled to comment on this because I legit had like 3-4 pretty long data-driven posts on this in detail early in the year (April-May), specifically making the CB his main pitch, and intentionally using the 4FB up and out of the zone. All because of the prediction he would end up his old self. BBSavant showed an essentially unchanged pitcher with a completely different plan. He was blowing guys away at 91-92 in April before his velo trended up. His success has very little to do with velocity and everything to do with his new attack plan.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2019 11:30:20 GMT -5
See, he's right, even when he's wrong. Workman is great this year because of his fastball, not the drastically increased use of his curve ball, which has always been plus. No one ever could have seen a reason to not DFA him before. Yup. I really feel compelled to comment on this because I legit had like 3-4 pretty long data-driven posts on this in detail early in the year (April-May), specifically making the CB his main pitch, and intentionally using the 4FB up and out of the zone. All because of the prediction he would end up his old self. BBSavant showed an essentially unchanged pitcher with a completely different plan. He was blowing guys away at 91-92 in April before his velo trended up. His success has very little to do with velocity and everything to do with his new attack plan. Not disagreeing with you at all, but if his curve is so obviously nasty and this has nothing to do with an uptick in velocity, why did it take this staff so long to figure out, "just throw more curve balls"? (My real underlying agenda is to replace the pitching coaches)
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Post by telson13 on Aug 22, 2019 11:38:17 GMT -5
Yup. I really feel compelled to comment on this because I legit had like 3-4 pretty long data-driven posts on this in detail early in the year (April-May), specifically making the CB his main pitch, and intentionally using the 4FB up and out of the zone. All because of the prediction he would end up his old self. BBSavant showed an essentially unchanged pitcher with a completely different plan. He was blowing guys away at 91-92 in April before his velo trended up. His success has very little to do with velocity and everything to do with his new attack plan. Not disagreeing with you at all, but if his curve is so obviously nasty and this has nothing to do with an uptick in velocity, why did it take this staff so long to figure out, "just throw more curve balls"? (My real underlying agenda is to replace the pitching coaches) Well, he was hurt for a while, and Bannister and Levangie are new since his return to pitching. The team has been more data-driven under Cora, and I imagine that plan was identified, discussed, and implemented in the offseason. There are lots of reasons why he might not have used the CB so much before; pitching backwards has gained popularity only fairly recently (NYY for example have been preaching it for only a few years, and they’re probably the industry leaders there), he may not have had the requisite command of it, maybe it’s gotten better with time/use, etc. I don’t see a failure there, I see a success in terms of developing a player-specific approach.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 22, 2019 11:43:54 GMT -5
Workman had a 3.22 ERA between 2017 and 2018 in 81 innings. So it probably took awhile to figure out what patterns were meaningful, and he also wasn't a guy who necessarily needed fixing. There was no "uhhh, this guy has given up 12 homers in 51 innings and they are all on changeups let's cool it with the changeups." It's a more long-term adjustments based on what the numbers were saying about a pitcher who was succeeding. The Red Sox pitching coaches identified a pretty good pitcher and made him better, and you want to use that as evidence that they should be fired? Nah.
I'll admit Workman is a guy I kinda missed. He'd outpitched his peripherals for awhile, and so many times when a pitcher with that profile makes an adjustment, either his luck runs out or his peripherals imrprove but it cannibalizes any real FIP-beating tendencies. Workman has pitched better and also continued to outpitch his peripherals to the point where we have to start at least considering it's an ability.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 22, 2019 11:47:04 GMT -5
Workman had a 3.22 ERA between 2017 and 2018 in 81 innings. So it probably took awhile to figure out what patterns were meaningful, and he also wasn't a guy who necessarily needed fixing. There was no "uhhh, this guy has given up 12 homers in 51 innings and they are all on changeups let's cool it with the changeups." It's a more long-term adjustments based on what the numbers were saying about a pitcher who was succeeding. The Red Sox pitching coaches identified a pretty good pitcher and made him better, and you want to use that as evidence that they should be fired? Nah. I'll admit Workman is a guy I kinda missed. He'd outpitched his peripherals for awhile, and so many times when a pitcher with that profile makes an adjustment, either his luck runs out or his peripherals imrprove but it cannibalizes any real FIP-beating tendencies. Workman has pitched better and also continued to outpitch his peripherals to the point where we have to start at least considering it's an ability. I think the FIP beating tendency is common for pitchers with plus curve balls. It seems to be the hardest pitch to hit.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 22, 2019 11:50:03 GMT -5
Yup. I really feel compelled to comment on this because I legit had like 3-4 pretty long data-driven posts on this in detail early in the year (April-May), specifically making the CB his main pitch, and intentionally using the 4FB up and out of the zone. All because of the prediction he would end up his old self. BBSavant showed an essentially unchanged pitcher with a completely different plan. He was blowing guys away at 91-92 in April before his velo trended up. His success has very little to do with velocity and everything to do with his new attack plan. Not disagreeing with you at all, but if his curve is so obviously nasty and this has nothing to do with an uptick in velocity, why did it take this staff so long to figure out, "just throw more curve balls"? (My real underlying agenda is to replace the pitching coaches) The question is why did it take baseball so long to figure this out. Throwing a breaking ball as your primary pitch is essentially a post Rich Hill phenomenon. A few soft-tossing lefties did it, but it just wasn't considered as a viable strategy for "normal" pitchers. For some perspective, Workman has thrown his curveball 47.0% of the time this year. How many curveballs is that? The sixth most of anyone in a season of 50 innings or more since we've had pitch type data.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 22, 2019 11:57:45 GMT -5
Yeah, it's starting to seem like "You have to work off your fastball or your other pitches don't work" is baseball's version of "you have to establish the run to open up the pass."
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2019 11:58:30 GMT -5
Workman had a 3.22 ERA between 2017 and 2018 in 81 innings. So it probably took awhile to figure out what patterns were meaningful, and he also wasn't a guy who necessarily needed fixing. There was no "uhhh, this guy has given up 12 homers in 51 innings and they are all on changeups let's cool it with the changeups." It's a more long-term adjustments based on what the numbers were saying about a pitcher who was succeeding. The Red Sox pitching coaches identified a pretty good pitcher and made him better, and you want to use that as evidence that they should be fired? Nah. I'll admit Workman is a guy I kinda missed. He'd outpitched his peripherals for awhile, and so many times when a pitcher with that profile makes an adjustment, either his luck runs out or his peripherals imrprove but it cannibalizes any real FIP-beating tendencies. Workman has pitched better and also continued to outpitch his peripherals to the point where we have to start at least considering it's an ability. Not for Workman, but the two explanations make sense. My grievance is how no one (except maybe Workman) has exceeded expectations this year while many guys have vastly under performed. I get they had a deep playoff run last year, but having virtually no one out-performing and tons of guys under performing? Last year was great as they were 8th in SP ERA and 9th in BP, but that was a tad buoyed by Kimbrel, Sale and Price being their normal selves and Porcello not being a complete turd. This year: Boston relievers are 10th (which is also helped since they've dominated since July 24th) and 20th in SP. But, maybe I'm wrong. I don't want to fire him, just re-assign.
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 22, 2019 13:31:19 GMT -5
So I tried to find the single season record for hits per 9 for a pitcher but only got a list of starters (Ryan 5.2 per 9 in 1972). Brandon is currently 3.7. I wonder what the record is for relievers? After the Yankee playoffs last year when he really struggled, I did not see this year coming. It probably will be tough to repeat this but hopefully will keep most of the gains for future seasons in the Sox pen.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 14:33:00 GMT -5
See, he's right, even when he's wrong. Workman is great this year because of his fastball, not the drastically increased use of his curve ball, which has always been plus. No one ever could have seen a reason to not DFA him before. Yup. I really feel compelled to comment on this because I legit had like 3-4 pretty long data-driven posts on this in detail early in the year (April-May), specifically making the CB his main pitch, and intentionally using the 4FB up and out of the zone. All because of the prediction he would end up his old self. BBSavant showed an essentially unchanged pitcher with a completely different plan. He was blowing guys away at 91-92 in April before his velo trended up. His success has very little to do with velocity and everything to do with his new attack plan. Workman has averaged 94 mph in one month in his career. That was in June in 2019. He has been averaging over 93 mph ever since May. If Workman had kept averaging closer to the 91-92 mph that he was averaging all year in 2018, the homerun problem could have came back and he's probably not this good though. The pitch usage helps, but so does the velocity. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519443&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=08/22/2019&s_type=2
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 22, 2019 14:47:23 GMT -5
Workman's velocity on his 4FB has increased from 91.2 to 92.7 from 2018 to 2019. His spin rate also increased from 2003 to 2117 which is probably significant.
However, pitching backwards from his curve ball makes his fastball so much more effective and that's likely the explanation for going from a replacement level pitcher to a 1.6 fWAR pitcher this season. It's not like batters really have trouble catching up to most 92.7 mph fastballs. But they really do if they have to sit on a ridiculous curve ball that can be thrown for strikes. Throwing more curve balls obviously makes his fastball much more effective than 1.5 mph does.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 22, 2019 14:59:12 GMT -5
The question is why did it take baseball so long to figure this out. Throwing a breaking ball as your primary pitch is essentially a post Rich Hill phenomenon. A few soft-tossing lefties did it, but it just wasn't considered as a viable strategy for "normal" pitchers. For some perspective, Workman has thrown his curveball 47.0% of the time this year. How many curveballs is that? The sixth most of anyone in a season of 50 innings or more since we've had pitch type data. Well - we didn't seem as fond of this strategy when Daisuke was doing it. They've been doing it in Japan for decades so maybe it just takes time to catch on? Primary concern with pitching off breaking balls is the walk rate, which seems to be the greatest concern with Workman right now. It's a tricky proposition if he doesn't have the feel for his curveball on a given day. Hopefully the success continues into 2020.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 15:02:12 GMT -5
Doesn't it make sense that the velocity increase isn't he has a better fastball, but by throwing less of them he hasn't worn down as much? Hence the slight increase in overall velocity, yet no change in his top velocity, which was actually higher in 2017. Didn't want to get into a 5 page argument with Umass, but this doesn't make sense. The curveball adds just as much stress to the arm as a fastball. Clayton Kershaw at one point decreased throwing curveballs ay one point in his career and started throwing more sliders, to save stress on the arm. He still might be doing that. Workman is just flat out stronger this year throughout and that is a great thing. When he's throwing harder, he's better. Just like Jim just said above, his curveball is so nasty that *any* improvement to the fastball is going to make him that much more dominant.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2019 15:35:32 GMT -5
Doesn't it make sense that the velocity increase isn't he has a better fastball, but by throwing less of them he hasn't worn down as much? Hence the slight increase in overall velocity, yet no change in his top velocity, which was actually higher in 2017. Didn't want to get into a 5 page argument with Umass, but this doesn't make sense. The curveball adds just as much stress to the arm as a fastball. Clayton Kershaw at one point decreased throwing curveballs ay one point in his career and started throwing more sliders, to save stress on the arm. He still might be doing that. Workman is just flat out stronger this year throughout and that is a great thing. When he's throwing harder, he's better. Just like Jim just said above, his curveball is so nasty that *any* improvement to the fastball is going to make him that much more dominant. Well Pedro, the guy you were questioning on Sale seems to agree with you on curve balls/fastballs. Dr. James Andrews and others on throwing a curveball: www.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/sports/baseball/debate-grows-over-how-to-protect-young-pitching-arms.htmlIt seems if thrown correctly (which is a big if) that a curve ball has no more evidence of causing strain than any other pitch.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 16:03:24 GMT -5
Yeah that's kind of my point though.
Workman isn't throwing harder this year because he's all of a sudden throwing more curveballs and is getting less worn down. He just has more arm strength this year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 23, 2019 3:06:21 GMT -5
Workman had a 3.22 ERA between 2017 and 2018 in 81 innings. So it probably took awhile to figure out what patterns were meaningful, and he also wasn't a guy who necessarily needed fixing. There was no "uhhh, this guy has given up 12 homers in 51 innings and they are all on changeups let's cool it with the changeups." It's a more long-term adjustments based on what the numbers were saying about a pitcher who was succeeding. The Red Sox pitching coaches identified a pretty good pitcher and made him better, and you want to use that as evidence that they should be fired? Nah. I'll admit Workman is a guy I kinda missed. He'd outpitched his peripherals for awhile, and so many times when a pitcher with that profile makes an adjustment, either his luck runs out or his peripherals imrprove but it cannibalizes any real FIP-beating tendencies. Workman has pitched better and also continued to outpitch his peripherals to the point where we have to start at least considering it's an ability. Think it's because he's gone more towards his curve and less towards his both 2 and 4 seam FB's. The curve of his was always good, even early on. Worrisome he's already had the 1 TJ and going more heavily with the curve now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 23, 2019 11:13:38 GMT -5
Doesn't it make sense that the velocity increase isn't he has a better fastball, but by throwing less of them he hasn't worn down as much? Hence the slight increase in overall velocity, yet no change in his top velocity, which was actually higher in 2017. Didn't want to get into a 5 page argument with Umass, but this doesn't make sense. The curveball adds just as much stress to the arm as a fastball. Clayton Kershaw at one point decreased throwing curveballs ay one point in his career and started throwing more sliders, to save stress on the arm. He still might be doing that. Workman is just flat out stronger this year throughout and that is a great thing. When he's throwing harder, he's better. Just like Jim just said above, his curveball is so nasty that *any* improvement to the fastball is going to make him that much more dominant. Don't you dare trash talk me, like I'm the reason you just had a 5 page argument with the whole board all at once for like the third time in a week. You made more posts in 12 hours than I do in a month and I post a lot! I'm talking game to game and even during games, not stress over a career long-term. Every pitcher is different and Workman seems to have a limited about of good fastballs per appearance. He throws less and his top velocity doesn't get effected, yet his range does. If it was arm strength, like his arm was stronger wouldn't he have a better top velocity? His average is slightly higher than 2017, but his top velocity is still down. He's also still showing his normal trend, start out low, max out mid summer and then start to decline. Yet during that whole cycle he's been very good, there is no he gets crushed when he throws 91.5 compared to 93. Just my opinion but throwing a fastball as fast as you can takes more energy than throwing a slower curve does. Maybe that isn't true for Workman as every pitcher is different, but it seems to make sense given his top velocity hasn't changed, just his average. As to Kershaw I haven't heard of too many pitchers throwing more sliders so they have less stress on there elbow and arm. Like Workman threw a slider pre TJ and hasn't since, which a lot of guys do. Like the number one reason for arm trouble is the amount of pitching you do and second is velocity per studies. Throwing a faster slider, while adding movement sure seems like a riskier option than the curve. Yet every pitcher is different, maybe it matches up better with his delivery and mechanics better than the curve does. There's pitchers that can throw tons of curve balls and have zero issues and others where they blow out there elbows. Certain pitches just work for certain guys better than others and the delivery and pitching motions are likely the reason why. None of this changes the fact that you wanted to move on from a guy that had pitched well for two years. You wanted to be worried because of the velocity drop at the end of 2018 okay that makes sense. Yet without knowing the reason dumping him and wanting to basically move on at all costs made zero sense. Could have been a slight injury, dead arm, mechanical issues, who knows. You didn't have a clue, yet now your not wrong because his average velocity is slightly higher than 2017, yet his top velocity is still lower than 2017. Like most of the board said at the time you don't just throw away useful back end bullpen guys. They have up and down seasons all the time and Workman wasn't awful in 2018 even with a decreased velocity.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2019 12:19:16 GMT -5
Isn't the only thing that changes between pitches the grip? It's not like you twist your elbow when throwing a curve to get more spin on it. I was never a pitcher so I'm not sure.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2019 12:44:49 GMT -5
Isn't the only thing that changes between pitches the grip? It's not like you twist your elbow when throwing a curve to get more spin on it. I was never a pitcher so I'm not sure. You release any breaking pitch completely differently from how you release a fastball. That's how you impart different spin on the pitch. I'd suggest heading over to YouTube for the details.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 23, 2019 13:32:39 GMT -5
Isn't the only thing that changes between pitches the grip? It's not like you twist your elbow when throwing a curve to get more spin on it. I was never a pitcher so I'm not sure. I’d have to snap off my curve. Changeups you wanna throw like a football. Different sort of releases and I’d imagine the stress they cause can be a little different from pitch to pitch. I’m not a scientist though All I know is that I threw too many curves growing up. None of it is natural to the human body
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 14:18:24 GMT -5
Didn't want to get into a 5 page argument with Umass, but this doesn't make sense. The curveball adds just as much stress to the arm as a fastball. Clayton Kershaw at one point decreased throwing curveballs ay one point in his career and started throwing more sliders, to save stress on the arm. He still might be doing that. Workman is just flat out stronger this year throughout and that is a great thing. When he's throwing harder, he's better. Just like Jim just said above, his curveball is so nasty that *any* improvement to the fastball is going to make him that much more dominant. Don't you dare trash talk me, like I'm the reason you just had a 5 page argument with the whole board all at once for like the third time in a week. You made more posts in 12 hours than I do in a month and I post a lot! I didn't trash talk you. I just know how these things go, is all.
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Post by soxinnj on Aug 23, 2019 15:53:45 GMT -5
Isn't the only thing that changes between pitches the grip? It's not like you twist your elbow when throwing a curve to get more spin on it. I was never a pitcher so I'm not sure. I’d have to snap off my curve. Changeups you wanna throw like a football. Different sort of releases and I’d imagine the stress they cause can be a little different from pitch to pitch. I’m not a scientist though All I know is that I threw too many curves growing up. None of it is natural to the human body Sliders you throw like a football, not changeups...circle changeups you pronate you’re hand a little to get the ball to move more. But regardless of the pitch, everyone should be throw with the same arm action and arm-speed as to not give away the pitch. And nothing about throwing a baseball is natural to the human body...
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Post by cdj on Aug 23, 2019 16:29:42 GMT -5
I’d have to snap off my curve. Changeups you wanna throw like a football. Different sort of releases and I’d imagine the stress they cause can be a little different from pitch to pitch. I’m not a scientist though All I know is that I threw too many curves growing up. None of it is natural to the human body Sliders you throw like a football, not changeups...circle changeups you pronate you’re hand a little to get the ball to move more. But regardless of the pitch, everyone should be throw with the same arm action and arm-speed as to not give away the pitch. And nothing about throwing a baseball is natural to the human body... All I know is that my teammate with an awesome change would warm up in the outfield by throwing a football. Pull the strings on it the same way In 100% agreement on everything else
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Post by ramireja on Aug 30, 2019 13:45:17 GMT -5
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