|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 24, 2019 8:45:59 GMT -5
I fell asleep quite early last night and I didn't see any of the game. Happy to see the result, obvious. But man, those uniforms are even uglier on the field than they looked when they were introduced. You can't read the white uniforms at all, they're among the ugliest I've ever seen, maybe worse than a lot of the "Turn Ahead the Clock" catastrophes from '99 or '00 or whenever that was. The black uniforms are closer to being interesting, but black uniforms for summer day games are an abomination.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2019 8:51:10 GMT -5
The inspiration...
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 24, 2019 10:35:55 GMT -5
Turned it off when it was 7-0 and ERod was effortlessly dealing. Not many games like it this season!
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 24, 2019 12:06:56 GMT -5
So, who thinks the clutch hitting failures are just random? Here is a by-inning breakdown of wOBA with the tying or go-ahead run on base, beginning on May 1. Inn PA wOBA Rnk 1 116 .382 10 2 104 .323 13 3 82 .410 8 4 58 .343 12 5 47 .509 1 6 43 .352 13 7 25 .210 26 8 40 .275 20 9 48 .250 24 x 38 .229 27 The odds of the 7th inning+ numbers being that different (better or worse) from innings 1 through 6, in a random simulation, are 1 in 462.
Here's the split with more detail. Keep in mind that a big part of wOBA-xwOBA ("Karma") is skill, specifically, pulling the ball (or hitting it hard the other way, if you're Rafael Devers) rather than to CF. Inn PA xwOBA Rnk wOBA Rnk Karma Rank 1-6 450 .333 9 .379 4 3 7-9 151 .282 20 .245 27 29 As I typed this up I realized I could get individual breakdowns by player, and also look to see if things have gotten any better recently (and also, exactly when they started). How unusual was Holt's walk-off?
Does this account for the fact that, when down by a run or two in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings, they'd be facing the other team's best relievers? How do these numbers compare to league average? "Rank" is their rank among 30 MLB clubs. When the bell rings for the 7th inning, they go from the 4th best hitting team in MLB in these situations to the 27th best. I don't think everyone does that.
The figures in each inning could and should be normalized to league average, which might raise the p value on the t-test, but it would still be way significant. And in fact the odds of getting the split in the ranks of the individual innings in a random sim is 1 in 1910, and that's with the assumption of equal variance (it's 1 in 3328 otherwise).
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 24, 2019 12:56:55 GMT -5
Lions season is over. Tough division JBJ sits vs RHP. No DH The eliminated teams seem to get swept by the pennant race teams, every night. Both leagues. Really wish they'd implement a loss penalty where if you lose between x-amount of games, you lose a pick, lose even more, you lose more picks. Force these garbage teams to put out a somewhat competent team each night. That's a really interesting idea. I've got a model that identifies the impact of competitive imbalance on attendance, which I need to do more work on. Between that, and simply looking at the distribution of W/L records, it should be possible to come up with the minimum number of wins that could be regarded as not extraordinary. Below that, there would be a penalty,
Another possibility, one that the players' union would love, is a minimum payroll. However, I suspect that would have complicated negative effects.
The biggest problem is that teams that are somewhat below-average trade off all their good players a year or (more often) two years before they hit free agency, and that's what makes them terrible. The biggest rationale for that is actually not to tank and get a better draft pick, but because they get too little in the way of compensation if they wait and lose them in free agency, and they're not going to ddo anything interesting in the interim. The tanking thing started when they drastically reduced the draft-pick compensation.
I came up with a better draft-pick compensation system. To begin with, it's based on the contracts that get signed, not on any stupid rating system based on stats. Each team's net free agency additions and losses are added up (you'd need a metric that accounted for inflation to reduce the worth of long-term contracts). That number is then used to adjust each team's draft pool (and maybe international pool, too).
Since the total adjustment is zero, it should work. Teams that have an early pick but spent on free agents have to look for bargains, and that means players fall to teams with a later pick that lost them. The only tricky part would be to figure out the conversion figure, the $ you lose in the draft pool for net $ you spend on free agents. But you'd start with the studies of the dollar value of a given draft pick.
And it makes perfect sense. If you spend money on free agents, you have to spend less on amateurs. If you lose players to free agency, you get to spend more on amateurs. And any single contract has a gradual, proportional effect. No one stays a free agent until after the draft because their specific contract cost an entire pick and the money attached to it.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 24, 2019 14:15:09 GMT -5
I fell asleep quite early last night and I didn't see any of the game. Happy to see the result, obvious. But man, those uniforms are even uglier on the field than they looked when they were introduced. You can't read the white uniforms at all, they're among the ugliest I've ever seen, maybe worse than a lot of the "Turn Ahead the Clock" catastrophes from '99 or '00 or whenever that was. The black uniforms are closer to being interesting, but black uniforms for summer day games are an abomination. I liked the all black from the Sox. I'm more of a black guy myself when it comes to cars and stuff. The Padres white looked bad and looked like the were playing in bed sheets lol.
|
|
|
Post by Canseco on Aug 24, 2019 16:12:42 GMT -5
Because of these hideous uniforms, I am choosing to listen to the games on WEEI.
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 24, 2019 16:39:44 GMT -5
Tonight:
Same exact lineup as Fri.
Edit: don't hold your breath, but Rays are losing big. 900pm
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 24, 2019 16:49:37 GMT -5
Tonight: Same exact lineup as Fri. lets hope for the same exact result
|
|
|
Post by Smittyw on Aug 24, 2019 18:30:25 GMT -5
The Chris Sale elbow truthers missed the real cover-up here: that Sale injured his own arm to avoid pitching in those black uniforms.
|
|
atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
|
Post by atzar on Aug 24, 2019 19:56:36 GMT -5
The Chris Sale elbow truthers missed the real cover-up here: that Sale injured his own arm to avoid pitching in those black uniforms. This IS a guy who missed a start once because he cut the sleeves off of his uniform...
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2019 20:00:37 GMT -5
El Flaco vs Flaco.
|
|
atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
|
Post by atzar on Aug 24, 2019 20:04:43 GMT -5
Do me a favor: if you going to get thrown out on the basepaths, at least make it close.
You know, if you feel like you HAVE to.
|
|
|
Post by wildsox on Aug 24, 2019 20:14:49 GMT -5
Nasty Nate
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 24, 2019 20:52:51 GMT -5
CVaz has such a nice line drive approach when he is on....and he certainly has been more on than off this season. The offense is making mincemeat of the Padres so far.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2019 20:55:32 GMT -5
The only batter in the Sox lineup that doesn't have a higher OPS than Machado is Eovaldi.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 24, 2019 21:18:42 GMT -5
welp...Eovaldi imploded. Bullpen game. 4th inning is lasting forever.
|
|
|
Post by michael on Aug 24, 2019 21:22:42 GMT -5
INRE: Black v. White uniforms. In light of today's political animosity, it's KKK v. ANTIFA. Can root for both 'ing sides to lose.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2019 21:28:18 GMT -5
welp...Eovaldi imploded. Bullpen game. 4th inning is lasting forever. The 5 MPH drop in velocity and sudden total loss of control in the 3rd inning is concerning.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2019 21:29:33 GMT -5
INRE: Black v. White uniforms. In light of today's political animosity, it's KKK v. ANTIFA. Can root for both 'ing sides to lose. And those that would make those associations.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,387
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Aug 24, 2019 21:34:15 GMT -5
welp...Eovaldi imploded. Bullpen game. 4th inning is lasting forever. The 5 MPH drop in velocity and sudden total loss of control in the 3rd inning is concerning. Is this just basically spring training still? Did he run out of gas?
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,387
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Aug 24, 2019 21:35:05 GMT -5
INRE: Black v. White uniforms. In light of today's political animosity, it's KKK v. ANTIFA. Can root for both 'ing sides to lose. Who roots for anyone to lose to the KKK?
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 24, 2019 21:40:37 GMT -5
Home plate Umpire is brutal.
|
|
|
Post by marrcus on Aug 24, 2019 21:42:40 GMT -5
I wanted that run(at 2b). Don't expect this 1 run is going to hold. Tight one.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 24, 2019 21:43:43 GMT -5
All I want for Christmas is for Darwinzon to develop into a starter next year.
|
|