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2020 Vision: Position Players
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2019 8:28:00 GMT -5
This is the reason (latest game. He is among the very best in all of baseball.) you keep Betts regardless if you lose him the following year though I doubt he and JDM can be afforded while remaining under the cap. If Sox can then all they need are three players to come through which isn't an unreasonable expectation. Sale, Eovaldi and Benintendi. Can anyone say Sale is "done?" Same with Eovaldi. They can't. As for Beni -- we've heard potentially he could lead the league in hitting when he was in minors or his 1st year etc. This year while he is pretty good / good -- I think he can be much more. His power this year very disappointing. He doesn't even look stronger. You get these 3 guys to perform well- they don't need to be great but they can be-- then the Sox are a threat to anyone. I do think however Pedro has a point though. There may be a team or two who is willing to pay a bit for a superstar for 1 year. For example -put yoursefl in the Dodgers shoes historically. If they don;t win yet again it would be 21 years. It's not like the Dodgers would give up "a lot" but in order to be favored "to win it all" they could give up "enough." If they don't win it all this year will they be favored next year? They have had super farm systems for last several years but haven't won it all. Betts gives them the best offense in all of baseball. -- And this year they have the best pitching. Though I prefer to keep Betts. See what Sale, Eovaldi and Beni can do. Good point, you and Pedro. For a team like the Dodgers, it would make sense to get Betts to rome CF for 1 season and see if they can be the highest bidders. They have the Alex Verdugos of the world and some pitching they can trade. My guess is it wouldn't feel like enough - it would be like "Hey we're not getting Gavin Lux, so..." or whatever. It would be a nice trade package but one that doesn't feel like it was enough or a rip-off. So I think you're correct. The Dodgers are definitely a team that can take that shot. And there might be some others. It only takes 1 team. Like you, I'd prefer they keep Betts and go for it. It means banking on Sale and Eovaldi bouncing back and making sure they have a capable replacement for Porcello. It can be a tough needle to thread if those things don't happen, but I'm at the point I'd like to see them try again. I'm thinking that too many things went right last year, too many things have gone wrong this year...maybe next year will be a middle ground and get them the extra 5 - 7 wins they need to make the playoffs. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 5, 2019 8:54:46 GMT -5
This is the reason (latest game. He is among the very best in all of baseball.) you keep Betts regardless if you lose him the following year though I doubt he and JDM can be afforded while remaining under the cap. If Sox can then all they need are three players to come through which isn't an unreasonable expectation. Sale, Eovaldi and Benintendi. Can anyone say Sale is "done?" Same with Eovaldi. They can't. As for Beni -- we've heard potentially he could lead the league in hitting when he was in minors or his 1st year etc. This year while he is pretty good / good -- I think he can be much more. His power this year very disappointing. He doesn't even look stronger. You get these 3 guys to perform well- they don't need to be great but they can be-- then the Sox are a threat to anyone. I do think however Pedro has a point though. There may be a team or two who is willing to pay a bit for a superstar for 1 year. For example -put yoursefl in the Dodgers shoes historically. If they don;t win yet again it would be 21 years. It's not like the Dodgers would give up "a lot" but in order to be favored "to win it all" they could give up "enough." If they don't win it all this year will they be favored next year? They have had super farm systems for last several years but haven't won it all. Betts gives them the best offense in all of baseball. -- And this year they have the best pitching. Though I prefer to keep Betts. See what Sale, Eovaldi and Beni can do. Good point, you and Pedro. For a team like the Dodgers, it would make sense to get Betts to rome CF for 1 season and see if they can be the highest bidders. They have the Alex Verdugos of the world and some pitching they can trade. My guess is it wouldn't feel like enough - it would be like "Hey we're not getting Gavin Lux, so..." or whatever. It would be a nice trade package but one that doesn't feel like it was enough or a rip-off. So I think you're correct. The Dodgers are definitely a team that can take that shot. And there might be some others. It only takes 1 team. Like you, I'd prefer they keep Betts and go for it. It means banking on Sale and Eovaldi bouncing back and making sure they have a capable replacement for Porcello. It can be a tough needle to thread if those things don't happen, but I'm at the point I'd like to see them try again. I'm thinking that too many things went right last year, too many things have gone wrong this year...maybe next year will be a middle ground and get them the extra 5 - 7 wins they need to make the playoffs. I would love to see the Mookie Betts extension really, but the player is already a year away. He's going to go to free agency unless the Sox go to the value he's seeking. I don't see that happening, so the Sox are in a impossible situation. The one year thing sounds insane when you have team control over Xander, Devers, Eduardo, Sale, Benintendi, Price and company for 3 years. Like that's a second window to keep winning. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 5, 2019 10:40:32 GMT -5
I litterally said blown saves aren't a great stat, only combined with our lack of saves does it start to mean anything and post after post about how bad blown saves are. Yet no one talking about the combo which is what I was talking about. The teams below us in saves Rockies, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, and Pirates. Those are the worst teams in Baseball. So what gives if we have a top 10 bullpen(Fangraphs rates them 4th), the wins and offense we do, why so few saves? Ranking below middle of pack in clutch rating likely helps explain some of that. They rank 17th in high leverage situations. Which plays right into not having a set closer and set up guys to start the year. Heck we are in September and we are still trying to find the right mix, now working in Hernandez. It would change everything if he could be become an elite reliever, yet as last game showed his walks are a big issue.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 5, 2019 11:36:51 GMT -5
Just one more.  Although I’d take Houston’s pitching development guy, Strom, and make him a Associate GM, if I couldn’t get Cole and then go get whomever he identified from other team’s so-so candidates so he can sprinkle his magic dust on them. Two words: Brian Bannister. They aren’t mutually exclusive, but Houston has had some amazing “luck” grabbing pitchers who were thought to be mediocre (Morton), done (Pressley) on the downside of their career (Verlander) or just not living up to potential (Cole), among others, and made them All Stars. Sox could use help in this area (see: starters, relievers this year). Astros played five fewer games than Boston last year but their pitching is thriving. There is a strong link to this and their player development practices. Seem like something we’d want to get a piece of, if possible. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 5, 2019 12:16:18 GMT -5
Two words: Brian Bannister. They aren’t mutually exclusive, but Houston has had some amazing “luck” grabbing pitchers who were thought to be mediocre (Morton), done (Pressley) on the downside of their career (Verlander) or just not living up to potential (Cole), among others, and made them All Stars. Sox could use help in this area (see: starters, relievers this year). Astros played five fewer games than Boston last year but their pitching is thriving. There is a strong link to this and their player development practices. Seem like something we’d want to get a piece of, if possible. There's no doubt that Houston is one of the best player dev organizations right now, but I also think some of these narratives are overblown. I'm not giving them credit for Verlander having the Nolan Ryan gene, and Cole's story is mostly about how Pittsburg wanted him to throw his worst pitch all the time because of their (terrible) organizational pitching philosophy. As far as the Red Sox side of this goes, I think the work they've done in the bullpen is a huge point in their favor. Workman and Barnes have both totally changed their pitch mixes with excellent results under Bannister. They certainly seemed to unlock the best version of Eovaldi last year, the mistake was signing him to a well above-market deal despite the fact that he has an elbow surgery every year, and that's a decision that probably wasn't driven by Bannister. Sale pitched as well as he ever had with the Red Sox until he broke down, Price has been aging fairly gracefully by pitcher standards. Basically I think the coaching/development of the pitching staff has been pretty strong, but when no one is healthy and you have no depth, that only takes you so far. |
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Post by telson13 on Sept 5, 2019 18:02:55 GMT -5
This is the reason (latest game. He is among the very best in all of baseball.) you keep Betts regardless if you lose him the following year though I doubt he and JDM can be afforded while remaining under the cap. If Sox can then all they need are three players to come through which isn't an unreasonable expectation. Sale, Eovaldi and Benintendi. Can anyone say Sale is "done?" Same with Eovaldi. They can't. As for Beni -- we've heard potentially he could lead the league in hitting when he was in minors or his 1st year etc. This year while he is pretty good / good -- I think he can be much more. His power this year very disappointing. He doesn't even look stronger. You get these 3 guys to perform well- they don't need to be great but they can be-- then the Sox are a threat to anyone. I do think however Pedro has a point though. There may be a team or two who is willing to pay a bit for a superstar for 1 year. For example -put yoursefl in the Dodgers shoes historically. If they don;t win yet again it would be 21 years. It's not like the Dodgers would give up "a lot" but in order to be favored "to win it all" they could give up "enough." If they don't win it all this year will they be favored next year? They have had super farm systems for last several years but haven't won it all. Betts gives them the best offense in all of baseball. -- And this year they have the best pitching. Though I prefer to keep Betts. See what Sale, Eovaldi and Beni can do. I mean, it’s *possible* a team like the Dodgers (with Lux, May, Verdugo, etc.) might feel desperate, as you say, and make an offer that makes sense for the Red Sox. It all depends on what a team would give up. I agree that Benintendi really probably does have another gear; he’s not as big as Yelich but they had similar starts to their careers. I doubt Beni goes THAT nuts (Yelich always hit the ball hard, just on the ground), but I do believe Beni is capable of being a perennial .300-.320 (or even higher)/.400/.500-.550 hitter. I’m hopeful Sale bounces back (the peripherals were pretty good this year), and Eovaldi, if healthy, has 2/2a upside if he stays healthy and uses the cutter. The Sox has a LOT of bad luck this year, but they got breakouts from two guys (that seem to portend more, rather than career years), and more of the same from JDM. They built their bullpen successfully and have the whole lot returning, with full seasons from some legit contributors (Darwinzon and Taylor). Rodriguez looks like he may have finally turned the corner. And tbh, Mookie has been very good, just not stupid good like his best years. If they don’t repeat the ST April mistake and the starters stay fairly healthy, they could easily win 100 games. Without Mookie, they’re probably fighting for a WC2, and win low-mid-90s. It makes sense to *explore* a trade, but if I’m the Sox, it’s gotta be a ridiculous overpay. Like, Lux (who becomes starting 2b) or May (straight to the rotation 4 spot) and Verdugo (takes Mookie’s RF spot). With two of those guys, the Sox maybe get about half of Mookie’s excess production value, and they’re in competition for the division or at least WC1...and set up for the next 5 years. I’d be **shocked** if the Dodgers did that, though. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 5, 2019 18:17:48 GMT -5
Sale, who had averaged 5.6 WAR per year, gave us 2.2 WAR this year, and the Sox have still been a 100 talent-win team after the slow start.
Rick Porcello has alternated good and bad years for six years now. In 2014-2015 he averaged 2.2 WAR per year. In 2016-2017 he average 2.2 WAR per year. In 2018 and 2019 he's fallen off dramatically and projects to only average 2.1 WAR.
So the "no great loss" was exactly the contribution from Sale whose absence you think is both likely, and which would warrant punting the season.
You talk as if every MLB pitcher isn't a question mark. It's absolutely true that for all their extraordinary talent, not one of Sale, Price, Eovaldi, or E-Rod have been consistently healthy and/or have pitched up to their potential. Note that we got 100 wins worth of talent with essentially nothing from Eovaldi, and with Porcello having one of his down years; they've combined for 0.8 WAR. This roster is insanely talented now. Your attitude is, well, we can't be certain that everyone will be as good as we reasonably expect, so let's blow it up!
My attitude is that the question of the health of the rotation is the issue, and the most important issue that no one can't derive from. Not performance. I'm not playing Russian roulette on this rotation and risking everything for one year. Chris Sale's medium projection shouldn't be 0 wins next year, but it *could* be with the questions of the elbow. Eovaldi is always hurt. Price is coming off a injury right now and is currently topping out at 90 mph again. Porcello is gone. You don't have a 5th starter. Mata is your only pitching depth at the moment. Hello, hello!! Thanks for blocking me, I'll agree to disagree from here because you don't see it from my side. Now Price is back on the IL. That's two starting pitchers who are going to end the year on the IL most likely and people want to keep Mookie for one year and go for it in 2020 knowing this? |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2019 18:24:11 GMT -5
This is the reason (latest game. He is among the very best in all of baseball.) you keep Betts regardless if you lose him the following year though I doubt he and JDM can be afforded while remaining under the cap. If Sox can then all they need are three players to come through which isn't an unreasonable expectation. Sale, Eovaldi and Benintendi. Can anyone say Sale is "done?" Same with Eovaldi. They can't. As for Beni -- we've heard potentially he could lead the league in hitting when he was in minors or his 1st year etc. This year while he is pretty good / good -- I think he can be much more. His power this year very disappointing. He doesn't even look stronger. You get these 3 guys to perform well- they don't need to be great but they can be-- then the Sox are a threat to anyone. I do think however Pedro has a point though. There may be a team or two who is willing to pay a bit for a superstar for 1 year. For example -put yoursefl in the Dodgers shoes historically. If they don;t win yet again it would be 21 years. It's not like the Dodgers would give up "a lot" but in order to be favored "to win it all" they could give up "enough." If they don't win it all this year will they be favored next year? They have had super farm systems for last several years but haven't won it all. Betts gives them the best offense in all of baseball. -- And this year they have the best pitching. Though I prefer to keep Betts. See what Sale, Eovaldi and Beni can do. I mean, it’s *possible* a team like the Dodgers (with Lux, May, Verdugo, etc.) might feel desperate, as you say, and make an offer that makes sense for the Red Sox. It all depends on what a team would give up. I agree that Benintendi really probably does have another gear; he’s not as big as Yelich but they had similar starts to their careers. I doubt Beni goes THAT nuts (Yelich always hit the ball hard, just on the ground), but I do believe Beni is capable of being a perennial .300-.320 (or even higher)/.400/.500-.550 hitter. I’m hopeful Sale bounces back (the peripherals were pretty good this year), and Eovaldi, if healthy, has 2/2a upside if he stays healthy and uses the cutter. The Sox has a LOT of bad luck this year, but they got breakouts from two guys (that seem to portend more, rather than career years), and more of the same from JDM. They built their bullpen successfully and have the whole lot returning, with full seasons from some legit contributors (Darwinzon and Taylor). Rodriguez looks like he may have finally turned the corner. And tbh, Mookie has been very good, just not stupid good like his best years. If they don’t repeat the ST April mistake and the starters stay fairly healthy, they could easily win 100 games. Without Mookie, they’re probably fighting for a WC2, and win low-mid-90s. It makes sense to *explore* a trade, but if I’m the Sox, it’s gotta be a ridiculous overpay. Like, Lux (who becomes starting 2b) or May (straight to the rotation 4 spot) and Verdugo (takes Mookie’s RF spot). With two of those guys, the Sox maybe get about half of Mookie’s excess production value, and they’re in competition for the division or at least WC1...and set up for the next 5 years. I’d be **shocked** if the Dodgers did that, though. I was thinking that Verdugo and May might be a more realistic value for Betts for 1 season. Wouldn't think a Lux would be able to be gotten for 1 season of Mookie. I don't think the Astros would trade Tucker for 1 season of Betts for instance. |
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Post by soxjim on Sept 5, 2019 18:52:35 GMT -5
My attitude is that the question of the health of the rotation is the issue, and the most important issue that no one can't derive from. Not performance. I'm not playing Russian roulette on this rotation and risking everything for one year. Chris Sale's medium projection shouldn't be 0 wins next year, but it *could* be with the questions of the elbow. Eovaldi is always hurt. Price is coming off a injury right now and is currently topping out at 90 mph again. Porcello is gone. You don't have a 5th starter. Mata is your only pitching depth at the moment. Hello, hello!! Thanks for blocking me, I'll agree to disagree from here because you don't see it from my side. Now Price is back on the IL. That's two starting pitchers who are going to end the year on the IL most likely and people want to keep Mookie for one year and go for it in 2020 knowing this? Yes. I think that is acceptable. You are saying no shot for either of these guys next year to produce for most of the season? |
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Post by telson13 on Sept 5, 2019 19:01:03 GMT -5
I mean, it’s *possible* a team like the Dodgers (with Lux, May, Verdugo, etc.) might feel desperate, as you say, and make an offer that makes sense for the Red Sox. It all depends on what a team would give up. I agree that Benintendi really probably does have another gear; he’s not as big as Yelich but they had similar starts to their careers. I doubt Beni goes THAT nuts (Yelich always hit the ball hard, just on the ground), but I do believe Beni is capable of being a perennial .300-.320 (or even higher)/.400/.500-.550 hitter. I’m hopeful Sale bounces back (the peripherals were pretty good this year), and Eovaldi, if healthy, has 2/2a upside if he stays healthy and uses the cutter. The Sox has a LOT of bad luck this year, but they got breakouts from two guys (that seem to portend more, rather than career years), and more of the same from JDM. They built their bullpen successfully and have the whole lot returning, with full seasons from some legit contributors (Darwinzon and Taylor). Rodriguez looks like he may have finally turned the corner. And tbh, Mookie has been very good, just not stupid good like his best years. If they don’t repeat the ST April mistake and the starters stay fairly healthy, they could easily win 100 games. Without Mookie, they’re probably fighting for a WC2, and win low-mid-90s. It makes sense to *explore* a trade, but if I’m the Sox, it’s gotta be a ridiculous overpay. Like, Lux (who becomes starting 2b) or May (straight to the rotation 4 spot) and Verdugo (takes Mookie’s RF spot). With two of those guys, the Sox maybe get about half of Mookie’s excess production value, and they’re in competition for the division or at least WC1...and set up for the next 5 years. I’d be **shocked** if the Dodgers did that, though. I was thinking that Verdugo and May might be a more realistic value for Betts for 1 season. Wouldn't think a Lux would be able to be gotten for 1 season of Mookie. I don't think the Astros would trade Tucker for 1 season of Betts for instance. I don’t think there’s a whole lot of value difference between Lux and May, but yeah, Lux probably has more immediate value to LA. He’s got throwing issues that might move him off SS, which dings his value. But I also think they plan to keep him there until he proves they can’t. He’s not the hitter he was in AAA (obviously; the .450 or whatever BABIP isn’t reproducible, nor the .390 BA or .700 SLG). Lux would be a perfect fit for the Sox at 2b though, where his defense probably goes from fringy to plus, and his arm becomes more than adequate. I like Verdugo as a hitter, and he’s got a really good arm. He fits that RF perfectly fine. And with May...his SL is electric, and he’s sitting 95. He easily hops right into the rotation to replace Porcello and almost certainly exceed his production. In all honesty, in some ways I prefer May to Lux because I love his upside and Lux is probably overvalued right now. Idk how the presence of Seager affects LA’s long-term view of Lux at SS; you’d think he’d be entrenched but everything I’ve read says LA thinks Lux is a SS. Either way, the Sox have pretty big holes at 2b and in the rotation, so either likely helps the team by adding 1-3 wins, and possibly more down the line. I think Verdugo is a little better than the fg guys rate him; I think he’s probably a perennial 2.5-4 WAR guy. He doesn’t strike out, which is a big plus; it’s possible his power plays up some if he sells out a little. He *might* have a little trouble in Fenway because he’s not particularly fast, and RF is big, but his arm should be fine on deep balls and gappers. So replacing 6-8 WAR Mookie with 2-3 WAR May and 2-4 WAR Verdugo is helpful; doesn’t make up the whole difference (and the value is split between positions...two 4-WAR guys doesn’t equal one 8-WAR guy)...but it would save them $27-30M, and that means they could sign a guy like Cole or Rendon, which would be a huge upgrade. Now, idk what contract terms will look like for those two (or if Rendon would agree to go back to 2b...boy, would he be an incredible upgrade there), but...well, they could probably still reset by getting under $208M and pinching a few pennies elsewhere (or doing a deferred $ deal). I just really don’t see LA overpaying THAT much. And that sort of overpay is the only scenario where trading Mookie makes sense. Hell, maybe they don’t sign anyone big, fill gaps, and make a run at him after the season. I just really want him (and Bogey, and Devers, and Beni 🤣🤣 to be Sox lifers). But I’ll admit, passing up May/Verdugo (a 22-y/o potential 1, likely 2 and an infrequent but occasional AS RF) would probably be bad business. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 6, 2019 0:52:14 GMT -5
I can see the Dodgers making sense if they can't win again. Yet they have been really good at holding onto those elite guys. They refused to trade Verdugo multiple times. A guy that was ranked top 35 by most prospect sites pre-2019 per Baseball reference, one had him 19th. Lux and May are two of the top prospects in Baseball. Like talk about a massive offer, that's rather close to a Chris Sale package. I mean Verdugo alone would likely provide you more excess value and total war. If you see him as a 2-4 war player that's 10 to 20 war over the next 5 years. If he's the best player in the package I'm ok with that. Dodgers have a deep system. Like Tony Gonsolin is a guy I would target and should be a lot easier to get. Add in a third piece and that is a rather good offer for one season of even a great player.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 6, 2019 5:44:49 GMT -5
Now Price is back on the IL. That's two starting pitchers who are going to end the year on the IL most likely and people want to keep Mookie for one year and go for it in 2020 knowing this? Yes. I think that is acceptable. You are saying no shot for either of these guys next year to produce for most of the season? I'm not no pitching guru, but I know it's hard for a even healthy pitcher in his 30's to ramp up for a long major league season. Now take these same two pitchers and have them recover from these injuries in the same off-season, instead of ramping up for 2020 the whole time. Yeah I can see this going downhill in a hurry. Sale's elbow will either pop up again or it won't, even with the rest. A bad elbow will be a bad elbow 6 months from now. We will see in spring training on that one. Who knows about Price though? He's now getting into his mid 30's now next year. He's had elbow tendonitis and now this cyst pop up, along with other elbow problems pop up periodically through the years. The age thing is a huge deal. It adds more variance and increases things like injuries to pop up more and more. The performance thing becomes unpredictable when you add things like this to the equation. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 6, 2019 8:54:26 GMT -5
I can see the Dodgers making sense if they can't win again. Yet they have been really good at holding onto those elite guys. They refused to trade Verdugo multiple times. A guy that was ranked top 35 by most prospect sites pre-2019 per Baseball reference, one had him 19th. Lux and May are two of the top prospects in Baseball. Like talk about a massive offer, that's rather close to a Chris Sale package. I mean Verdugo alone would likely provide you more excess value and total war. If you see him as a 2-4 war player that's 10 to 20 war over the next 5 years. If he's the best player in the package I'm ok with that. Dodgers have a deep system. Like Tony Gonsolin is a guy I would target and should be a lot easier to get. Add in a third piece and that is a rather good offer for one season of even a great player. Between you and telson, you're probably correct. That package is a pretty strong package, one that LA might chafe at. Verdugo is a good player but I think he doesn't quite have the HR power that other corner OFs have. To get a Verdugo and May, the Sox would probably have to include Chavis as well? A guy who's a RH bat who can play multiple positions and has power and is under team control would probably very much appeal to the Dodgers. Perhaps Betts and Chavis for Verdugo and May is more of a balanced type deal or perhaps LA has to add a lesser 3rd piece? I'm guessing that's what a Mookie Betts deal might look like? |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 6, 2019 8:58:05 GMT -5
I was thinking that Verdugo and May might be a more realistic value for Betts for 1 season. Wouldn't think a Lux would be able to be gotten for 1 season of Mookie. I don't think the Astros would trade Tucker for 1 season of Betts for instance. I donât think thereâs a whole lot of value difference between Lux and May, but yeah, Lux probably has more immediate value to LA. Heâs got throwing issues that might move him off SS, which dings his value. But I also think they plan to keep him there until he proves they canât. Heâs not the hitter he was in AAA (obviously; the .450 or whatever BABIP isnât reproducible, nor the .390 BA or .700 SLG). Lux would be a perfect fit for the Sox at 2b though, where his defense probably goes from fringy to plus, and his arm becomes more than adequate. I like Verdugo as a hitter, and heâs got a really good arm. He fits that RF perfectly fine. And with May...his SL is electric, and heâs sitting 95. He easily hops right into the rotation to replace Porcello and almost certainly exceed his production. In all honesty, in some ways I prefer May to Lux because I love his upside and Lux is probably overvalued right now. Idk how the presence of Seager affects LAâs long-term view of Lux at SS; youâd think heâd be entrenched but everything Iâve read says LA thinks Lux is a SS. Either way, the Sox have pretty big holes at 2b and in the rotation, so either likely helps the team by adding 1-3 wins, and possibly more down the line. I think Verdugo is a little better than the fg guys rate him; I think heâs probably a perennial 2.5-4 WAR guy. He doesnât strike out, which is a big plus; itâs possible his power plays up some if he sells out a little. He *might* have a little trouble in Fenway because heâs not particularly fast, and RF is big, but his arm should be fine on deep balls and gappers. So replacing 6-8 WAR Mookie with 2-3 WAR May and 2-4 WAR Verdugo is helpful; doesnât make up the whole difference (and the value is split between positions...two 4-WAR guys doesnât equal one 8-WAR guy)...but it would save them $27-30M, and that means they could sign a guy like Cole or Rendon, which would be a huge upgrade. Now, idk what contract terms will look like for those two (or if Rendon would agree to go back to 2b...boy, would he be an incredible upgrade there), but...well, they could probably still reset by getting under $208M and pinching a few pennies elsewhere (or doing a deferred $ deal). I just really donât see LA overpaying THAT much. And that sort of overpay is the only scenario where trading Mookie makes sense. Hell, maybe they donât sign anyone big, fill gaps, and make a run at him after the season. I just really want him (and Bogey, and Devers, and Beni ð¤£ð¤£ to be Sox lifers). But Iâll admit, passing up May/Verdugo (a 22-y/o potential 1, likely 2 and an infrequent but occasional AS RF) would probably be bad business. Lux has really come on as a prospect. Perhaps he fits the Dodgers as their 2b going forward as they already have Seager at SS anyways? Munson could play 1b and they can keep Bellinger in RF. I suppose Pollock and Taylor platoon in CF and Kiké Hernandez plays all around the diamond against lefties. At least that's what I hope they do this post-season. Lux could really make that great team better. The Dodgers' bullpen still worries me. I hope Dave Roberts learns a bit from last year and uses his best relievers and lets his starters grab a key inning here and there. I'm very much rooting for the Dodgers to finally win at this point. They've been knocking on the door long enough and I can certainly think of worse things happening than Sandy Koufax, Tommy LaSorda, and Vin Scully seeing another Dodgers championship and Dave Roberts getting another ring. |
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Post by soxjim on Sept 6, 2019 10:57:36 GMT -5
Yes. I think that is acceptable. You are saying no shot for either of these guys next year to produce for most of the season? I'm not no pitching guru, but I know it's hard for a even healthy pitcher in his 30's to ramp up for a long major league season. Now take these same two pitchers and have them recover from these injuries in the same off-season, instead of ramping up for 2020 the whole time. Yeah I can see this going downhill in a hurry. Sale's elbow will either pop up again or it won't, even with the rest. A bad elbow will be a bad elbow 6 months from now. We will see in spring training on that one. Who knows about Price though? He's now getting into his mid 30's now next year. He's had elbow tendonitis and now this cyst pop up, along with other elbow problems pop up periodically through the years. The age thing is a huge deal. It adds more variance and increases things like injuries to pop up more and more. The performance thing becomes unpredictable when you add things like this to the equation. So - You are saying no shot for either of these guys next year to produce for most of the season? |
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Post by telson13 on Sept 6, 2019 11:05:16 GMT -5
I donât think thereâs a whole lot of value difference between Lux and May, but yeah, Lux probably has more immediate value to LA. Heâs got throwing issues that might move him off SS, which dings his value. But I also think they plan to keep him there until he proves they canât. Heâs not the hitter he was in AAA (obviously; the .450 or whatever BABIP isnât reproducible, nor the .390 BA or .700 SLG). Lux would be a perfect fit for the Sox at 2b though, where his defense probably goes from fringy to plus, and his arm becomes more than adequate. I like Verdugo as a hitter, and heâs got a really good arm. He fits that RF perfectly fine. And with May...his SL is electric, and heâs sitting 95. He easily hops right into the rotation to replace Porcello and almost certainly exceed his production. In all honesty, in some ways I prefer May to Lux because I love his upside and Lux is probably overvalued right now. Idk how the presence of Seager affects LAâs long-term view of Lux at SS; youâd think heâd be entrenched but everything Iâve read says LA thinks Lux is a SS. Either way, the Sox have pretty big holes at 2b and in the rotation, so either likely helps the team by adding 1-3 wins, and possibly more down the line. I think Verdugo is a little better than the fg guys rate him; I think heâs probably a perennial 2.5-4 WAR guy. He doesnât strike out, which is a big plus; itâs possible his power plays up some if he sells out a little. He *might* have a little trouble in Fenway because heâs not particularly fast, and RF is big, but his arm should be fine on deep balls and gappers. So replacing 6-8 WAR Mookie with 2-3 WAR May and 2-4 WAR Verdugo is helpful; doesnât make up the whole difference (and the value is split between positions...two 4-WAR guys doesnât equal one 8-WAR guy)...but it would save them $27-30M, and that means they could sign a guy like Cole or Rendon, which would be a huge upgrade. Now, idk what contract terms will look like for those two (or if Rendon would agree to go back to 2b...boy, would he be an incredible upgrade there), but...well, they could probably still reset by getting under $208M and pinching a few pennies elsewhere (or doing a deferred $ deal). I just really donât see LA overpaying THAT much. And that sort of overpay is the only scenario where trading Mookie makes sense. Hell, maybe they donât sign anyone big, fill gaps, and make a run at him after the season. I just really want him (and Bogey, and Devers, and Beni ð¤£ð¤£ to be Sox lifers). But Iâll admit, passing up May/Verdugo (a 22-y/o potential 1, likely 2 and an infrequent but occasional AS RF) would probably be bad business. Lux has really come on as a prospect. Perhaps he fits the Dodgers as their 2b going forward as they already have Seager at SS anyways? Munson could play 1b and they can keep Bellinger in RF. I suppose Pollock and Taylor platoon in CF and Kiké Hernandez plays all around the diamond against lefties. At least that's what I hope they do this post-season. Lux could really make that great team better. The Dodgers' bullpen still worries me. I hope Dave Roberts learns a bit from last year and uses his best relievers and lets his starters grab a key inning here and there. I'm very much rooting for the Dodgers to finally win at this point. They've been knocking on the door long enough and I can certainly think of worse things happening than Sandy Koufax, Tommy LaSorda, and Vin Scully seeing another Dodgers championship and Dave Roberts getting another ring. Agreed. As a SF Giants fan (my pops is from Sausalito), I hate to admit it, but Iâm a huge Dave Roberts fan (obviously), and Kershaw is one of a handful of the best pitchers ever. He deserves a championship. Itâs a well-run organization, and theyâve got a team I really like, even if I donât like the organization based on fan principle. I can really get behind rooting for Roberts, Kershaw, Bellinger, Muncy, Beuhler, etc. With Seager, Lux is almost certain to go to 2b I guess, which is probably better for him anyway. Certainly, itâs best roster-wise. Heâs come on (kinda flipped from defensive to offensive-minded), but I still think heâs much more a true-talent 60 vs a 70. That said, heâs still a guy (along with Verdugo) Iâd have to take for Mookie. And I hate saying that. Same goes for May. And really, it will at least be interesting to watch what the Dodgers do if they DONâT win. I can certainly see some desperation sink in. I agree that the bullpen is highly suspect, although the playoffs make guys like Stripling, UrÃas, etc more important in relief roles. Ryu, Kershaw, Beuhler is a tough front 3. Kershawâs not vintage, but heâs still very good. And Iâm rooting hard against NY and, to some extent, Houston (though Iâm a big Verlander fan...what a great story he is). The playoffs should be compelling even if the Sox donât luck into them. |
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Post by soxjim on Sept 6, 2019 11:08:19 GMT -5
The Dodgers' bullpen still worries me. I hope Dave Roberts learns a bit from last year and uses his best relievers and lets his starters grab a key inning here and there. I'm very much rooting for the Dodgers to finally win at this point. They've been knocking on the door long enough and I can certainly think of worse things happening than Sandy Koufax, Tommy LaSorda, and Vin Scully seeing another Dodgers championship and Dave Roberts getting another ring. I root against everything from LA. I even hated trips I made out there for business and went out for fun after. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 6, 2019 11:53:05 GMT -5
The Dodgers' bullpen still worries me. I hope Dave Roberts learns a bit from last year and uses his best relievers and lets his starters grab a key inning here and there. I'm very much rooting for the Dodgers to finally win at this point. They've been knocking on the door long enough and I can certainly think of worse things happening than Sandy Koufax, Tommy LaSorda, and Vin Scully seeing another Dodgers championship and Dave Roberts getting another ring. I root against everything from LA. I even hated trips I made out there for business and went out for fun after. The Dodgers were kind enough to lose to the Sox last season; so therefore I hold no malice toward them. And to be honest, there are two NY related baseball championships that I do have a soft spot in my heart for: the 1969 Miracle Mets. How can you not like that one? Of course, their second championship I did NOT enjoy! And for that they should be thoroughly punished - like not winning a World Series for about 86 years. That sounds like a fit punishment. They're on their way. lol. Just hope that the next team after the 1986 Mets that won 108 games in the regular season doesn't have to wait too long to win their next championship! The other one is the 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers, the team that always lost to the Yankees and couldn't win the big one. Sound familiar (if you're a millenial or somebody born in the late 80s or 90s, probably not)? There was a lot of 20th century Red Sox in those Brooklyn Dodgers and that was the year they finally broke through. That was the team I kept saying to myself, "One day my Red Sox will have their Brooklyn Dodgers moment and finally stand up to the Yankees!" They were my inspiration for the 2004 Red Sox. I remember some obnoxious Yankees fan giving me crap after the 2nd game of the 2004 ALCS and I told him, one day if they keep knocking on the door the Red Sox will have their 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers moment, even if it's not this year, and of course he made fun of it and called the Sox the Brooklyn Red Sox. I doubt that schmuck was laughing a week later!! So I do have a soft spot for the Dodgers franchise in general even if LA isn't a city that's beloved around here. And this Dodgers team has been knocking on the door. Time to let them in - especially if they do wind up squaring off against the Yankees. P.S. As an aside, take a look at the offensive numbers that 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers club put up. I know Brooklyn had a cozy little park, but wow. That was definitely the best Brooklyn team of that era. It's funny - the 1955 Brooklyn team and the 1959 LA Dodgers were two of the less intimidating Dodgers teams of that era and they're the ones that broke through. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 6, 2019 11:59:35 GMT -5
Lux has really come on as a prospect. Perhaps he fits the Dodgers as their 2b going forward as they already have Seager at SS anyways? Munson could play 1b and they can keep Bellinger in RF. I suppose Pollock and Taylor platoon in CF and Kiké Hernandez plays all around the diamond against lefties. At least that's what I hope they do this post-season. Lux could really make that great team better. The Dodgers' bullpen still worries me. I hope Dave Roberts learns a bit from last year and uses his best relievers and lets his starters grab a key inning here and there. I'm very much rooting for the Dodgers to finally win at this point. They've been knocking on the door long enough and I can certainly think of worse things happening than Sandy Koufax, Tommy LaSorda, and Vin Scully seeing another Dodgers championship and Dave Roberts getting another ring. Agreed. As a SF Giants fan (my pops is from Sausalito), I hate to admit it, but Iâm a huge Dave Roberts fan (obviously), and Kershaw is one of a handful of the best pitchers ever. He deserves a championship. Itâs a well-run organization, and theyâve got a team I really like, even if I donât like the organization based on fan principle. I can really get behind rooting for Roberts, Kershaw, Bellinger, Muncy, Beuhler, etc. With Seager, Lux is almost certain to go to 2b I guess, which is probably better for him anyway. Certainly, itâs best roster-wise. Heâs come on (kinda flipped from defensive to offensive-minded), but I still think heâs much more a true-talent 60 vs a 70. That said, heâs still a guy (along with Verdugo) Iâd have to take for Mookie. And I hate saying that. Same goes for May. And really, it will at least be interesting to watch what the Dodgers do if they DONâT win. I can certainly see some desperation sink in. I agree that the bullpen is highly suspect, although the playoffs make guys like Stripling, UrÃas, etc more important in relief roles. Ryu, Kershaw, Beuhler is a tough front 3. Kershawâs not vintage, but heâs still very good. And Iâm rooting hard against NY and, to some extent, Houston (though Iâm a big Verlander fan...what a great story he is). The playoffs should be compelling even if the Sox donât luck into them. The SFG are your NL team? You get to see young Yaz close up? Can't wait to see the Giants when they come in during Sept. Given the circumstances, that's the one time I don't care if the Red Sox win while I'm at the ballpark. I'd rather see young Yaz hit one out or make a great play defensively or field one off the Monster. I've seen the Sox win about 4 or 5 in a row while at Fenway. They're due to lose. Might as well do it when it doesn't matter and I have something else to enjoy at the ballpark. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 6, 2019 12:36:55 GMT -5
I can see the Dodgers making sense if they can't win again. Yet they have been really good at holding onto those elite guys. They refused to trade Verdugo multiple times. A guy that was ranked top 35 by most prospect sites pre-2019 per Baseball reference, one had him 19th. Lux and May are two of the top prospects in Baseball. Like talk about a massive offer, that's rather close to a Chris Sale package. I mean Verdugo alone would likely provide you more excess value and total war. If you see him as a 2-4 war player that's 10 to 20 war over the next 5 years. If he's the best player in the package I'm ok with that. Dodgers have a deep system. Like Tony Gonsolin is a guy I would target and should be a lot easier to get. Add in a third piece and that is a rather good offer for one season of even a great player. Between you and telson, you're probably correct. That package is a pretty strong package, one that LA might chafe at. Verdugo is a good player but I think he doesn't quite have the HR power that other corner OFs have. To get a Verdugo and May, the Sox would probably have to include Chavis as well? A guy who's a RH bat who can play multiple positions and has power and is under team control would probably very much appeal to the Dodgers. Perhaps Betts and Chavis for Verdugo and May is more of a balanced type deal or perhaps LA has to add a lesser 3rd piece? I'm guessing that's what a Mookie Betts deal might look like? Just my two sense, but given the Dodgers past moves I don't think you have a shot at getting two of their top three prospects, not when all three are top 35 guys. For that to happen a lot of things would likely need to happen and I don't think Chavis does anything for them. They have Muncey and if Lux is going to 2B, nevermind we need Chavis. They get eliminated early and it's bad, still have money issues for some reason and Betts shows a willingness to resign in LA or they feel he will. Maybe then you eat some of Betts salary, take back a Pollock or something like that. Maybe include a Workman in the deal who could be a perfect sell high guy. Kinda hard to just focus on one team, as you don't know who could go crazy wanting to win. Hopefully you get a few teams bidding if you have to move him. |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 6, 2019 13:46:00 GMT -5
I consider myself a Red Sox fan only, I guess - once they are done, I won't watch any more baseball. I've no NL or other AL teams that I follow. Makes life simpler (not a new phenomenon - how I've been since - yes, 1967!)
My feeling on the 2020 team - only positions I can see are solid are SS, 3rd, C - wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of trading going on and new faces at 1st, 2nd, LF, CF and RF. Biggest loss to me as a fan would be Mookie, and I hope they find a way to retain him. Holding on to Brock would be nice too. But...Moreland, Chavis, Benny, JBJ, JDM - maybe gone in trades, opt outs, etc.
I think next year's team will look very, very different.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 6, 2019 14:28:57 GMT -5
I'm not no pitching guru, but I know it's hard for a even healthy pitcher in his 30's to ramp up for a long major league season. Now take these same two pitchers and have them recover from these injuries in the same off-season, instead of ramping up for 2020 the whole time. Yeah I can see this going downhill in a hurry. Sale's elbow will either pop up again or it won't, even with the rest. A bad elbow will be a bad elbow 6 months from now. We will see in spring training on that one. Who knows about Price though? He's now getting into his mid 30's now next year. He's had elbow tendonitis and now this cyst pop up, along with other elbow problems pop up periodically through the years. The age thing is a huge deal. It adds more variance and increases things like injuries to pop up more and more. The performance thing becomes unpredictable when you add things like this to the equation. So - You are saying no shot for either of these guys next year to produce for most of the season? I'm saying I'm not betting on one season, considering the last post I made. There's a chance that one or both of these guys gives you half or less the production than we're accustomed to seeing from Sale and Price. |
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Post by soxjim on Sept 6, 2019 21:28:57 GMT -5
So - You are saying no shot for either of these guys next year to produce for most of the season? I'm saying I'm not betting on one season, considering the last post I made. There's a chance that one or both of these guys gives you half or less the production than we're accustomed to seeing from Sale and Price. So you're saying next year potentially they can be strong? You say potentially they can't. This means potentially they can, correct? You can't have it one way here when you use the words "there's a chance." You said "there's a chance." Thus you are also saying there is a chance they are strong for most of the season, correct? And the following year are you saying you know for fact they won't spend much money over the additional thresholds? so if they spend over these thresholds, you know for a fact it won't do any good? |
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 7, 2019 6:39:25 GMT -5
2020 Vision: Position Players
If the team is built with Sale being counted on to be part of the SP staff it won't matter who the position players are, the team will fail, it's really that simple.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2019 10:25:42 GMT -5
This is the reason (latest game. He is among the very best in all of baseball.) you keep Betts regardless if you lose him the following year though I doubt he and JDM can be afforded while remaining under the cap. If Sox can then all they need are three players to come through which isn't an unreasonable expectation. Sale, Eovaldi and Benintendi. Can anyone say Sale is "done?" Same with Eovaldi. They can't. As for Beni -- we've heard potentially he could lead the league in hitting when he was in minors or his 1st year etc. This year while he is pretty good / good -- I think he can be much more. His power this year very disappointing. He doesn't even look stronger. You get these 3 guys to perform well- they don't need to be great but they can be-- then the Sox are a threat to anyone. I do think however Pedro has a point though. There may be a team or two who is willing to pay a bit for a superstar for 1 year. For example -put yoursefl in the Dodgers shoes historically. If they don;t win yet again it would be 21 years. It's not like the Dodgers would give up "a lot" but in order to be favored "to win it all" they could give up "enough." If they don't win it all this year will they be favored next year? They have had super farm systems for last several years but haven't won it all. Betts gives them the best offense in all of baseball. -- And this year they have the best pitching. Though I prefer to keep Betts. See what Sale, Eovaldi and Beni can do. You didn't look to see who the Dodgers have in the OF, right?
They have a guy who's a great defensive RF and a good one in CF, and can hit a little, named Cody Bellinger.
They have a 23 y/o rookie, Alex Verdugo, who's a very good defensive CF and is having a 5.4 / 3.8 (bWAR / fWAR) season per 150 games.
They have A.J. Pollock, who had always been a plus defensive CF and a 3.0-3.5 WAR kind of guy, who's having a terrible defensive year and can, I think, be expected to bounce back. He's signed for 3 more years at $13.75M.
And they have Joc Pederson, strictly a platoon guy but so good in that role (including great LF defense) that he can give you close to 3 WAR in it.
They're not going to trade Verdugo, so to make room for Mookie, they'd have to trade Pollock, and with the year he's having, they'd likely have to eat a good chunk of his salary (because opposing GM's will be cautious and skeptical). And he's their fourth OFer now.
Mookie would be taking PT away from Verdugo and Peterson. It might be a 4 WAR upgrade but it could easily be 3 (and a draft pick if they don't re-sign him), for prospects sufficient to pry him away from us and not have the fans go nuts, for $25M, less what they can get another team to pay Pollock. It's hard to see this making sense for both clubs.
Here's the secret: if you're already good enough that replacing a so-so player with Mookie would turn you from a solid contender to a favorite (or a favorite to a super-favorite), you probably already have all good players in your OF. And that decreases the marginal value of a Mookie upgrade quite a bit.
Whereas the Red Sox without Mookie actually fit the description of a team that would be willing to trade for him, because they would get full value. And we can just keep him!
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