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Breaking News - Dombrowski out
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Post by Guidas on Sept 17, 2019 15:10:01 GMT -5
It was suggested at the beginning of spring training that the team would be progressing very slowly with their starters, that there were concerns about the 2018 usage and what that would mean for 2019. Some of us took that very seriously, wondering whether they could get passed those issues. It turns it they couldn't, that those concerns were justified. It wasn't one big cheering section, not at all. Yet the Dodgers and Astros, facing virtually the same innings counts on their pitchers, are both winning their divisions and in line for #1 seeds this year. Is it that they know something about health and player development the Sox didn’t (or still don’t)? They both prepared for the season like they normally do. Very frustrating to watch from a distance.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 17, 2019 15:18:57 GMT -5
It was suggested at the beginning of spring training that the team would be progressing very slowly with their starters, that there were concerns about the 2018 usage and what that would mean for 2019. Some of us took that very seriously, wondering whether they could get passed those issues. It turns it they couldn't, that those concerns were justified. It wasn't one big cheering section, not at all. Yet the Dodgers and Astros, facing virtually the same innings counts on their pitchers, are both winning their divisions and in line for #1 seeds this year. Is it that they know something about health and player development the Sox didn’t (or still don’t)? They both prepared for the season like they normally do. Very frustrating to watch from a distance. 1. Some pitchers are more durable than other pitchers. The question in spring training wasn't whether the world's population of starting pitchers could come back from a long season, it was whether the starters who were specifically on the Boston Red Sox roster could. 2. The Dodgers had a lot of injury problems but it hasn't mattered because Ross Stripling is like their #9 starter.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 17, 2019 17:36:05 GMT -5
Now, if that weren't the case, if I'm John Henry and DDo comes to me with the Sale extension, I say: It's a one year deal for $20M for 2020. Take the $5M of AAV value and spread it over the remaining years. Those years vest if Sale makes 28 starts in 2020 and doesn't end the season on the DL, or get replaced on a playoff roster.
Voila. You've protected yourself against injury problems and you've freed up $5M more to get under the tax limit in 2020. Meanwhile, if Sale can stay healthy in 2020, he gets the exact same deal. I think that not allowing someone as smart as Henry to talk to you and give you feedback is a lousy idea. You can bet that this one goes into the "we''ll never do that again" column.
Let me get this straight, and I apologize if I don't understand. Your saying that Sale (and his agent) should have signed a 1 year extension and then for this contract subsequent to that. I am pretty certain that is below market to begin with. At a minimum, other teams might not go 5 year extension, but he is probably getting close to the 29 he got. Beyond that. Sale pitched 12.8 bWAR in 2017 and 2018. That production cost the Red Sox.....24 million. I let others determine the surplus value there, but if I am the agent, that is power point #1. Even this year he pitched above the value of his contract by that metric. He is leader, a warrior, the type of guy a team should keep around. I am actually quite confident that for the next 5 years we will get good Chris Sale, by and large. Pitcher injuries are part of the deal. Edit: incorrect on year to year on original post
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Post by soxjim on Sept 17, 2019 21:20:48 GMT -5
i don't think DD has some special talent id'ing skill. i think he just makes a lot of trades of minor league talent for established major league talent. Given the volatility of prospects, you're probably gonna come out ahead on a lot of these trades but at a long term cost; see Detroit. I won't say he hasn't executed some heists, the Scherzer trade given what he was at the time was amazing; but with the Sox, we didn't really see that type of move. We saw the more typical 'obvious' DD trades of elite big name closer, elite big name starting pitcher, etc. Also, because DD wins so many of these trades at least in the short term, people overlook some of the really bad ones. In Detroit, he traded for a criminal and really bad pitcher, Alfredo Simon, for Eugenio Suarez who's going to hit 50 home runs this year for the Reds and has been consistently great for them the last few years. Why didn't DD's skill for knowing talent kick in here, both for the guy he gave up and the guy he acquired?Are you kidding? He won a championship. Before he took over they were a last place team. He got Eovaldi and Pearce in 2018 and what did he give up? And you're bitching? I just wonder if some fans on here don't care much about winning championships but would rather follow prospects along with keep making trades and signing different free agents in a high volume manner. Then again I don't understand what the Sox are doing. Because I don't know if they are expecting to win. Don't know if they plan on going under the threshold. I thought that was the goal but now not so sure.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 17, 2019 21:26:41 GMT -5
i don't think DD has some special talent id'ing skill. i think he just makes a lot of trades of minor league talent for established major league talent. Given the volatility of prospects, you're probably gonna come out ahead on a lot of these trades but at a long term cost; see Detroit. I won't say he hasn't executed some heists, the Scherzer trade given what he was at the time was amazing; but with the Sox, we didn't really see that type of move. We saw the more typical 'obvious' DD trades of elite big name closer, elite big name starting pitcher, etc. Also, because DD wins so many of these trades at least in the short term, people overlook some of the really bad ones. In Detroit, he traded for a criminal and really bad pitcher, Alfredo Simon, for Eugenio Suarez who's going to hit 50 home runs this year for the Reds and has been consistently great for them the last few years. Why didn't DD's skill for knowing talent kick in here, both for the guy he gave up and the guy he acquired?Are you kidding? He won a championship. Before he took over they were a last place team. He got Eovaldi and Pearce in 2018 and what did he give up? And you're bitching? I just wonder if some fans on here don't care much about winning championships but would rather follow prospects along with keep making trades and signing different free agents in a high volume manner. Then again I don't understand what the Sox are doing. Because I don't know if they are expecting to win. Don't know if they plan on going under the threshold. I thought that was the goal but now not so sure. 162-0 every year with the best farm system in the majors might stop the complaining. For the most part.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 17, 2019 22:22:24 GMT -5
Seriously, I think people lack reasoning skills quite often. If the Red Sox win a championship, they traded too many prospects. If they do not win a championship, they didn't trade enough. That's basically the permanent narrative. Too many people will never be happy.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 20, 2019 12:15:12 GMT -5
Now, if that weren't the case, if I'm John Henry and DDo comes to me with the Sale extension, I say: It's a one year deal for $20M for 2020. Take the $5M of AAV value and spread it over the remaining years. Those years vest if Sale makes 28 starts in 2020 and doesn't end the season on the DL, or get replaced on a playoff roster.
Voila. You've protected yourself against injury problems and you've freed up $5M more to get under the tax limit in 2020. Meanwhile, if Sale can stay healthy in 2020, he gets the exact same deal. I think that not allowing someone as smart as Henry to talk to you and give you feedback is a lousy idea. You can bet that this one goes into the "we''ll never do that again" column.
Where does that article say his contract said ownership couldn't give him feedback? Talks about him framing things sometimes in a way accept or reject, not what do you think. Says contract wouldn't give Kennedy a seat at the table. The article implies sometimes DD didn't want feedback, yet that isn't he had a contract that said they couldn't give feedback. What am I missing?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 20, 2019 12:46:46 GMT -5
i don't think DD has some special talent id'ing skill. i think he just makes a lot of trades of minor league talent for established major league talent. Given the volatility of prospects, you're probably gonna come out ahead on a lot of these trades but at a long term cost; see Detroit. I won't say he hasn't executed some heists, the Scherzer trade given what he was at the time was amazing; but with the Sox, we didn't really see that type of move. We saw the more typical 'obvious' DD trades of elite big name closer, elite big name starting pitcher, etc. Also, because DD wins so many of these trades at least in the short term, people overlook some of the really bad ones. In Detroit, he traded for a criminal and really bad pitcher, Alfredo Simon, for Eugenio Suarez who's going to hit 50 home runs this year for the Reds and has been consistently great for them the last few years. Why didn't DD's skill for knowing talent kick in here, both for the guy he gave up and the guy he acquired? www.blessyouboys.com/2013/2/1/3939646/the-top-50-prospects-countdown-no-9-ss-eugenio-suarezNo GM is perfect, it's why you look at all his moves. The list shows he wins a ton more than he loses. Simon was older but coming off a career year where he was an all-star. In a way he was like Morton older guy who changed a ton, yet age did in Simon and he was horrible and out of baseball in a few years. Suarez wasn't a top prospect in a crappy system and scouts questioned if he could even hit enough to play SS with good D. He never hit more than 10 HRs in a season in the minors in almost 600 games over six seasons. Crap happens guys surprise you and get better for six straight seasons and develop unreal power almost out of no where. Scouts are talking about him maybe hitting 10 HRs in the majors and the guy is going to hit 50. You just don't see that much in Baseball and it's why people won't harp on it. It also doesn't come close to a Reddick trade or how good his other trades were.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 20, 2019 13:20:30 GMT -5
Guys like Suarez are completely made by the juiced ball, which couldn't be predicted.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 20, 2019 13:41:40 GMT -5
Suarez came in strong in '14 and posted big Iso's in the minors and thinking that it was the time to sell high on him wasn't crazy. Reds took a flier on a guy with power and positional flexibility and it worked out very well for them. I don't think it's fair say he's completely made by the juiced ball - he was arguably better last year when he hit "only" 34 homers.
What made the trade bad for the Tigers is that Suarez wasn't *the guy* in the trade. Jonathan Crawford was 1st round pick out of University of Florida who had a very good year in 2014 and he was considered the main get. And there's little question that the Tigers bought high on Simon, who had a 3.9 career bWAR at 33 and was coming off a 2.2 bWAR season in which he outperformed his FIP by .89. Suarez is too good, and was too close to the majors to be giving up as the second guy in a deal like that. Suarez straight up for a guy who might be coming off a career year? Sure. But as the #2 piece behind a former top draft pick who had a good year?
I don't think that deal defines Dombrowski - anyone who has been a GM for 30 years is going to have clunkers, and that's not a particularly damning one. But it was a bad trade.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2019 15:02:12 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Sept 20, 2019 16:11:54 GMT -5
Yet the Dodgers and Astros, facing virtually the same innings counts on their pitchers, are both winning their divisions and in line for #1 seeds this year. Is it that they know something about health and player development the Sox didn’t (or still don’t)? They both prepared for the season like they normally do. Very frustrating to watch from a distance. 1. Some pitchers are more durable than other pitchers. The question in spring training wasn't whether the world's population of starting pitchers could come back from a long season, it was whether the starters who were specifically on the Boston Red Sox roster could. 2. The Dodgers had a lot of injury problems but it hasn't mattered because Ross Stripling is like their #9 starter. And to this point, the Dodgers (and Astros) were more prepared to go 7 or 8 deep. Boston was not, unless you believe they were relying on Wright to be starter 7 behind Johnson (who's had his own problems). Bottom line is that this lack of preparedness was part of the problem. And don't get me started about not just relying on, but extending Sale before seeing if he could get through a full season after 2018 and the injuries therein). Dombrowski got snookered by his own hubris. Maybe the whole Front Office did.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 20, 2019 16:18:23 GMT -5
You cannot have decent major league depth in starting pitching without your own starting pitching prospects. Good starting pitchers aren't going to sign with a team where they might not get to start.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 20, 2019 17:37:34 GMT -5
You cannot have decent major league depth in starting pitching without your own starting pitching prospects. Good starting pitchers aren't going to sign with a team where they might not get to start. Developing starting pitching has been a glaring issue with this team since 2008. I would think that under Cherington, then Dombrowski this would’ve been addressed. Astros did a lot of theirs through signings pr trades of under valued pitchers. Boston remains woefully behind in this vital component of player evaluation and development.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 20, 2019 18:17:26 GMT -5
1. Some pitchers are more durable than other pitchers. The question in spring training wasn't whether the world's population of starting pitchers could come back from a long season, it was whether the starters who were specifically on the Boston Red Sox roster could. 2. The Dodgers had a lot of injury problems but it hasn't mattered because Ross Stripling is like their #9 starter. And to this point, the Dodgers (and Astros) were more prepared to go 7 or 8 deep. Boston was not, unless you believe they were relying on Wright to be starter 7 behind Johnson (who's had his own problems). Bottom line is that this lack of preparedness was part of the problem. And don't get me started about not just relying on, but extending Sale before seeing if he could get through a full season after 2018 and the injuries therein). Dombrowski got snookered by his own hubris. Maybe the whole Front Office did. I think you're making a major "Monday Morning QB" type of post.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 20, 2019 21:20:18 GMT -5
Velazquez and Johnson were each 1 win players last year. They were their 7th and 9th most valuable players by bWAR. The problem is they were relying on them without any reasonable backup plan to be the 6th and 7th starters on a club going into the year with the plan that their 1-5 starters wouldn't be ready.
Had they not rode the starters so hard in October last year, I think that plan would've been far more defensible. The way it wound up going, they should've considered trading for a SP in camp when things were breaking the way they were.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 21, 2019 5:01:30 GMT -5
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Post by soxjim on Sept 21, 2019 12:56:23 GMT -5
Velazquez and Johnson were each 1 win players last year. They were their 7th and 9th most valuable players by bWAR. The problem is they were relying on them without any reasonable backup plan to be the 6th and 7th starters on a club going into the year with the plan that their 1-5 starters wouldn't be ready. Had they not rode the starters so hard in October last year, I think that plan would've been far more defensible. The way it wound up going, they should've considered trading for a SP in camp when things were breaking the way they were. There were 7 starters. That's enough imo. The 6th and 7th starters were expected to contribute. The fact they were so lousy or hurt helped kill the bullpen in some manner. While the bullpen was good overall - they had to be "too perfect" because the starters were so awful. For example, why wouldn't the sox have expected a similar performance from BJ in 2019? The 99 innings for him in 2018 were too much? And Chris Sale. He pitched 158 innings last year in reg season. He wasn't "worn down" from postseason was he? If he was-- then where was all the outcry for signing Sale to a long-term contract this year? If there was a legit concern about 2019 with Sale and as he is on the wrong-side of 30 - where was the blasting of DD then? IMO there wasn't a huge outcry because there was an "expectation" he would be okay. And if Sale gives a normal Sale year - he helps preserve the bullpen (and not only from "innings" but some games you win a rout/ very easily). And if BJ isn't downright awful - this might have allowed the SOx to go with an opener if Velaz failed as a number 7 starter. IMO this was more than enough. They just didn't perform. As far as Porcello- in the postseason he pitched 15.33 more innings. This 15.33 innings would cause him to be so awful? Maybe. Im not arguing with this- but throwing 15 more innings has this much of a dramatic effect? And that should be known to start the season in that we should have known he would be so awful for 2019 because of these 15.33 innings?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 21, 2019 14:24:19 GMT -5
Sale came back from his injury too soon last year and the Red Sox admitted it. And he likely shouldn't have even been pitching in the postseason. So maybe not worn down, but he had to recover completely from his injury. And that takes away from his strength to start the season, which was delayed as long as possible. You saw the results. I bet he's normally in the shape that he started spring training in this year by around January most years.
He could benefit from a nice long offseason if the PRP injection works.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 21, 2019 14:29:58 GMT -5
Sale came back from his injury too soon last year and the Red Sox admitted it. And he likely shouldn't have even been pitching in the postseason. So maybe not worn down, but he had to recover completely from his injury. And that takes away from his strength to start the season, which was delayed as long as possible. You saw the results. I bet he's normally in the shape that he started spring training in this year by around January most years. He could benefit from a nice long offseason if the PRP injection works. So there was little expectation that he'd do well in 2019?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 21, 2019 14:49:43 GMT -5
Sale came back from his injury too soon last year and the Red Sox admitted it. And he likely shouldn't have even been pitching in the postseason. So maybe not worn down, but he had to recover completely from his injury. And that takes away from his strength to start the season, which was delayed as long as possible. You saw the results. I bet he's normally in the shape that he started spring training in this year by around January most years. He could benefit from a nice long offseason if the PRP injection works. So there was little expectation that he'd do well in 2019? I guess I misunderstand the point. There were hopes that he would do well and starting slow was supposed to make it more likely. Turned out to be an awful plan. But the thing is, once Eovaldi was signed, there was almost no money for more acquisitions. What's amusing, is that with all the arguing over a Mookie return, giving up almost a million dollars in the 2020 draft pool because of blowing past the 3rd tax threshold could actually approach that kind of return if they drafted well. It would also prevent them from signing any free agents with qualifying offers without also losing $1 million in international bonus money. So there was just no way for DDo to make any kind of significant trade for a starter or sign anyone else without a significant penalty for future talent. Even if you like spending other people's money, the draft penalties are way too severe to be up over the 3rd threshold. That they did it last year by just a few dollars is the worst mistake DDo made. Also, in regards to Porcello, Price, etc, you cannot just look at the number of postseason innings they threw. They were warming up time and time again getting ready to come into games even between starts and then starting on short rest. They are the highest leverage pitches they ever threw or close to it. They got about a month less rest than non-playoff teams. Hell, Eovaldi threw over 100 pitches on 2 days rest for the 18 inning game. I'm not saying that Eovaldi was a smart signing, so please no arguments there. I'm talking about what DDo should have done in spring training. He was so limited at that point. And yeah, that's also his fault.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 21, 2019 15:25:14 GMT -5
So there was little expectation that he'd do well in 2019? I guess I misunderstand the point. There were hopes that he would do well and starting slow was supposed to make it more likely. Turned out to be an awful plan. But the thing is, once Eovaldi was signed, there was almost no money for more acquisitions. What's amusing, is that with all the arguing over a Mookie return, giving up almost a million dollars in the 2020 draft pool because of blowing past the 3rd tax threshold could actually approach that kind of return if they drafted well. It would also prevent them from signing any free agents with qualifying offers without also losing $1 million in international bonus money. So there was just no way for DDo to make any kind of significant trade for a starter or sign anyone else without a significant penalty for future talent. Even if you like spending other people's money, the draft penalties are way too severe to be up over the 3rd threshold. That they did it last year by just a few dollars is the worst mistake DDo made. Also, in regards to Porcello, Price, etc, you cannot just look at the number of postseason innings they threw. They were warming up time and time again getting ready to come into games even between starts and then starting on short rest. They are the highest leverage pitches they ever threw or close to it. They got about a month less rest than teams than non-playoff teams. My point started with guidas saying Sox weren't "prepared" to go 7 deep. I know he also said 8 but imo they had seven guys which means you could start off with a couple of guys hurt. IMO 7 is enough and I think the expectation to start the season we had it. Which is why I called it Monday Morning Qb'ing to suggest "we weren't prepared." I replied to Chris - I think he was implying similar to guidas (but not sure) but I don't think the same as guiidas. ANd the more I think about Porcello- it shouldn't have been a significant warning sign to start the season that he'd be this awful too. I can understand Velaz slipping - he just isn't that good- but that's why he is the number 7 guy. You aren;t "prepared" if you're number 7 guy isn't that good but not expected to be awful? Anyways, imo there was probably reasonable expectations that we had enough depth. I believe it had more to do with lousy performance just as we saw with the hitting in certain clutch situations that's been discussed here. Though others have suggested maybe the hitting and pitching have been "unlucky." Whether it be lousy and/or unlucky I believe we had enough. As far as your point in bold I'm willing to go down that path too. I remember clearly Cora saying that on off days they threw pitches so for example Porcello on his off days would be throwing the same as if he got in. After I posted I recently looked at total number of pitches with Porcello-- for 2016, 2017 and 2018 counting the playoffs in 2016 he threw 3,482 pitches. In 2017 he threw 3,453 pitches. In 2018 he threw 3,323 pitches. Less number of pitches in 2018 than the prior years. I know about leverage but I think it is being highly exaggerated when you count in that he threw less in 2018. Any pticher unless they are "Verlander" we're pretty certain that if they throw about the same number of pitches but maybe a bit more high leverage then that means they are going to stink the following year? Then why didn't Porcello stink after 2017? He threw a lot of high leverage in 2016 and 2017. Maybe after 2017 we should've traded Chris Sale too? Of course not. In summary -- his total number of pitches declined in 2018. In 2016 and in 2017 sox were in a dogfight to win their division I believe. Thus how much "high leverage" is there for Porcello of 2018 vs 2016 and 2017? Thus why is the "high leverage" relevant" when in 2016 and 2017 he was also pitching a lot in high leverage? In 2018 the end of the season sox were't in high leverage. So those 15.33 innings mean that much in which he had probably about the same number of high leverage in 2016 and 2017 vs 2018? These innings had that much of an effect on Porcello falling apart? Failing this badly? I just don't believe it unless there is something other than "yes it is." Some comparable stats or something?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 21, 2019 16:50:13 GMT -5
There's a lot of extra wear when warming up for a relief appearance or actually throwing an inning or two between starts. Many times it wasn't even on a day that they normally would throw.
Porcello is up and down year to year anyway and he's probably starting to decline. There's a lot of wear on that arm.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 21, 2019 19:17:45 GMT -5
There's a lot of extra wear when warming up for a relief appearance or actually throwing an inning or two between starts. Many times it wasn't even on a day that they normally would throw. Porcello is up and down year to year anyway and he's probably starting to decline. There's a lot of wear on that arm. I don't understand the points you are making. Are we arguing? Oh well don't matter. I think our argument would become circular if we are in fact arguing.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 27, 2019 16:36:23 GMT -5
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