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2019-20 Red Sox offseason
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 1, 2019 6:58:44 GMT -5
This makes me want to boycott the team next year. I'm certainly not going to a single game. This is a terrible business decision.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 1, 2019 7:41:44 GMT -5
Has any other team stayed above the cap for the dreaded 3 years penalties? I think not but I could be wrong.
If they said the hell with the penalties and went for it all again but came up short would their be finger pointing when the penalties made it harder to rebuild? It isn't just about the revenues it is about the penalties that hurt drafting and international money also.
I think they can do what they are hoping it just comes down to Sale, Price and Evovoldi all turning it around and pitching to their potential. I think the Sox have enough young xstarter types who could develop into a good pen. And JDM leaves but we keep Mookie. I know it isn't ideal but you still have 3 of the best hitters in the league and a fighting chance that your staff will be good.
Erod, Price, Sale and Eovoldi could be a very good 1 thru 4, I know their are question marks for sure but it will be costly to go in another direction.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 1, 2019 8:16:16 GMT -5
Has any other team stayed above the cap for the dreaded 3 years penalties? I think not but I could be wrong. If they said the hell with the penalties and went for it all again but came up short would their be finger pointing when the penalties made it harder to rebuild? It isn't just about the revenues it is about the penalties that hurt drafting and international money also. I think they can do what they are hoping it just comes down to Sale, Price and Evovoldi all turning it around and pitching to their potential. I think the Sox have enough young xstarter types who could develop into a good pen. And JDM leaves but we keep Mookie. I know it isn't ideal but you still have 3 of the best hitters in the league and a fighting chance that your staff will be good. Erod, Price, Sale and Eovoldi could be a very good 1 thru 4, I know their are question marks for sure but it will be costly to go in another direction. The Dodgers and Yanks used to do it.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2019 8:42:50 GMT -5
Has any other team stayed above the cap for the dreaded 3 years penalties? I think not but I could be wrong. If they said the hell with the penalties and went for it all again but came up short would their be finger pointing when the penalties made it harder to rebuild? It isn't just about the revenues it is about the penalties that hurt drafting and international money also. I think they can do what they are hoping it just comes down to Sale, Price and Evovoldi all turning it around and pitching to their potential. I think the Sox have enough young xstarter types who could develop into a good pen. And JDM leaves but we keep Mookie. I know it isn't ideal but you still have 3 of the best hitters in the league and a fighting chance that your staff will be good. Erod, Price, Sale and Eovoldi could be a very good 1 thru 4, I know their are question marks for sure but it will be costly to go in another direction. The Dodgers and Yanks used to do it. Under the prior CBA...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 1, 2019 9:15:47 GMT -5
With that said-- we've spoken about this in the past. No team goes over the cap anymore for 3 straight years. So for them trying to stay under for a 3rd year just as every other team has done lately is not weird. It would be weird if they bucked that trend. You might be in denial because you believe Henry makes enough but it was always "real." Every owner other than Henry has told you (shown you) that. Setting aside the question of if they should go over the cap, if it's so obvious that they won't, that no team would do such a ridiculous thing, any everyone knows it... ok, well then it was some pretty bad planning to end up where they are right now, yeah? There's nothing about the situation they're in now that wasn't 100% foreseeable when they were trying up what little budget space they had left in injury prone/currently injured pitchers last offseason.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 1, 2019 9:29:32 GMT -5
The board is schizoid, absolutely of two minds. Everyone understands that the minor league system remains largely depleted at the upper level. The hope is that some of the carefully targeted lower rung draft choices they've made will help that situation - maybe. Yet lots of the posts are beating them up for wanting to make it back under the cap thresholds so that they can rebuild. Which is it?
There's no secrets here. They're in a bind thanks to the current CBA. I hope the MLBPA sticks to their guns but the issues are enormous. The owners will fight like hell to keep the advantage they have and that likely means stalemate for the next round of negotiations.
The Sox cannot possibly bank on that new CBA at this stage. The FO would be failing miserably if they weren't doing - wait for it - strategic planning. It stinks that they can't just re-sign everyone without giving it a second thought, but in the current arena the choices are very limited. That's thanks to the lousy bargain the players signed on to.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 1, 2019 10:07:01 GMT -5
The board is schizoid, absolutely of two minds. Everyone understands that the minor league system remains largely depleted at the upper level. The hope is that some of the carefully targeted lower rung draft choices they've made will help that situation - maybe. Yet lots of the posts are beating them up for wanting to make it back under the cap thresholds so that they can rebuild. Which is it?There's no secrets here. They're in a bind thanks to the current CBA. I hope the MLBPA sticks to their guns but the issues are enormous. The owners will fight like hell to keep the advantage they have and that likely means stalemate for the next round of negotiations. The Sox cannot possibly bank on that new CBA at this stage. The FO would be failing miserably if they weren't doing - wait for it - strategic planning. It stinks that they can't just re-sign everyone without giving it a second thought, but in the current arena the choices are very limited. That's thanks to the lousy bargain the players signed on to. To your first question, I think they should just suck it up and take the draft penalties. To that second bit, I don't understand how you can possibly give the FO any credit for planning when they created this mess by giving $150m to a pitcher who WAS HURT WHEN THEY SIGNED HIM. You're right, they can't just sign everyone without giving a second thought. Drunk off a World Series win, they did exactly that, and now they're out of options.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 1, 2019 10:42:10 GMT -5
To be clear, I agree with you that they dug this hole for themselves - a classic Faustian bargain. This is their problem to own. One of the issues with any organized group is breaking with the pack. They would get ostracized from the club and probably suffer even greater losses if they were to go against the other owners and just buy up everyone in site. But even that might not come close to guaranteeing a championship, and the corner they've painted themselves into would get even tighter.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 1, 2019 11:45:33 GMT -5
With that said-- we've spoken about this in the past. No team goes over the cap anymore for 3 straight years. So for them trying to stay under for a 3rd year just as every other team has done lately is not weird. It would be weird if they bucked that trend. You might be in denial because you believe Henry makes enough but it was always "real." Every owner other than Henry has told you (shown you) that. Setting aside the question of if they should go over the cap, if it's so obvious that they won't, that no team would do such a ridiculous thing, any everyone knows it... ok, well then it was some pretty bad planning to end up where they are right now, yeah? There's nothing about the situation they're in now that wasn't 100% foreseeable when they were trying up what little budget space they had left in injury prone/currently injured pitchers last offseason. Exactly! I thought this team’s front office was all about it’s “very deliberative 5-year plans”?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 1, 2019 11:46:18 GMT -5
Isn't this technically tanking? I mean they obviously aren't going to be a top 5 pick but they are actively and purposefully making the team worse in order to save money? I know tanking has generally been associated with attempting to be the worst team in the league for a draft pick but really I feel like this is an applicable use of the term too. There's no argument to be made the team could be more competitive next year without Mookie and JD. No. It's called having a budget. At a time when faced with difficult budgetary issues. Every franchise makes their " team worse in order to save money. " If you truly believe that they're being faced with difficult budgetary issues, I've got some wonderful beachfront property in Oklahoma to sell you. edit: before this turns into an argument that I don't really have the energy to follow through on, I should clarify that my comment was 75% facetious. I should also add that you say every franchise makes their team worse in order to save money, but that's not true. Every franchise holds off on spending hundreds of million dollars on players in order to be cost efficient, yes. But that is way different than actively dumping off talent you already have in order to pinch pennies, which is what the Red Sox are doing.
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Post by patford on Oct 1, 2019 11:49:02 GMT -5
The board is schizoid, absolutely of two minds. Everyone understands that the minor league system remains largely depleted at the upper level. The hope is that some of the carefully targeted lower rung draft choices they've made will help that situation - maybe. Yet lots of the posts are beating them up for wanting to make it back under the cap thresholds so that they can rebuild. Which is it? There's no secrets here. They're in a bind thanks to the current CBA. I hope the MLBPA sticks to their guns but the issues are enormous. The owners will fight like hell to keep the advantage they have and that likely means stalemate for the next round of negotiations. The Sox cannot possibly bank on that new CBA at this stage. The FO would be failing miserably if they weren't doing - wait for it - strategic planning. It stinks that they can't just re-sign everyone without giving it a second thought, but in the current arena the choices are very limited. That's thanks to the lousy bargain the players signed on to. The Sox can bank on a new CBA when a new CBA is most beneficial to the Yankees.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2019 12:40:00 GMT -5
What's even better than the mystery of the new CBA is the mystery of what the ball will be like next year. Or next month. Or tomorrow.
Really hard to team build with that kind of uncertainty.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 1, 2019 12:44:24 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 1, 2019 12:44:41 GMT -5
What's even better than the mystery of the new CBA is the mystery of what the ball will be like next year. Or next month. Or tomorrow. Really hard to team build with that kind of uncertainty. ...and how you fit that into any sort of rational planning exercise! It's hard to fathom what MLB thought they were doing by screwing with the one thing that impacts every single batted ball.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 1, 2019 12:47:13 GMT -5
What's even better than the mystery of the new CBA is the mystery of what the ball will be like next year. Or next month. Or tomorrow. Really hard to team build with that kind of uncertainty. Is it though? In general, the players are going to be just as good. If you want to get tricky, take a chance buying low on guys with a high HR/FB, and avoid overpaying hitters with the same profile. For hitters, the statcast data will give even more insight into what hitters to avoid. I don't anticipate a lot of huge surprises here.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 1, 2019 12:49:28 GMT -5
Has any other team stayed above the cap for the dreaded 3 years penalties? I think not but I could be wrong. If they said the hell with the penalties and went for it all again but came up short would their be finger pointing when the penalties made it harder to rebuild? It isn't just about the revenues it is about the penalties that hurt drafting and international money also. I think they can do what they are hoping it just comes down to Sale, Price and Evovoldi all turning it around and pitching to their potential. I think the Sox have enough young xstarter types who could develop into a good pen. And JDM leaves but we keep Mookie. I know it isn't ideal but you still have 3 of the best hitters in the league and a fighting chance that your staff will be good. Erod, Price, Sale and Eovoldi could be a very good 1 thru 4, I know their are question marks for sure but it will be costly to go in another direction. There is no international money penalty for just spending money. That is for signing QO free agents, not going over the luxury tax. It's your pick moves back ten spots. Signing a QO free agent is way worse than going over the highest bar of the luxury tax as you lose draft picks and international money.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2019 12:50:33 GMT -5
Uh huh. And that's why the Dodgers and Yankees stopped doing it. Also, the entire league figured out that just about all value from baseball players comes in their first 6 seasons since then.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2019 12:51:46 GMT -5
What's even better than the mystery of the new CBA is the mystery of what the ball will be like next year. Or next month. Or tomorrow. Really hard to team build with that kind of uncertainty. Is it though? In general, the players are going to be just as good. If you want to get tricky, take a chance buying low on guys with a high HR/FB, and avoid overpaying hitters with the same profile. For hitters, the statcast data will give even more insight into what hitters to avoid. I don't anticipate a lot of huge surprises here. As home runs go down, contact, defense and base running will become much more valuable.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2019 12:58:00 GMT -5
Is it though? In general, the players are going to be just as good. If you want to get tricky, take a chance buying low on guys with a high HR/FB, and avoid overpaying hitters with the same profile. For hitters, the statcast data will give even more insight into what hitters to avoid. I don't anticipate a lot of huge surprises here. If home runs crater, contact, defense and base running will be much more valuable. I'd even argue that these things like contact, defense and base running are much more valuable these days. Those things seem to be in rare supply. It's all about HR derby now. They all mash HRs, but I think the team that can hit a well timed single with a runner in scoring position, can pitch, run the bases better, and turn batted balls into outs more consistently will be at an advantage. I think those were traits that made huge differences on the 2018 Red Sox. Granted the HRs weren't quite as insane as they are now, but HRs were still being mashed. I think those smaller things were the things that made the huge difference on the 2018 Red Sox. They hit HRs but they weren't homer happy like the 2018 Yankees were. The Sox got the singles and doubles, particularly in clutch time. And they stole bases effectively, and as the year wore on, ran the bases very well. They played solid defense toward the end of the season once they got 2b straightened out (the one thing Kinsler did well). I think those traits were absent from the 2019 Red Sox, who I felt, got a big chunk of their runs from sitting back and waiting on the HR.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 1, 2019 13:00:43 GMT -5
I think you're getting a little hung up on how radical the change will be. It's going to look like 2014, not 1987. There will be changes at the margins as far as positional player value, but it's not going to be anything seismic. In fact, I might go the other direction. Identifying actual 25-30 home run hitters is going to be more important, whereas today CJ Cron is a DFA candidate and Christian Vazquez has 23 balls carry out of the park. Look at his HR/FB by year: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9774&position=C#battedball Don't buy guys with a huge HR/FB rate is a huge part of their value, and buy hitters like Robbie Ray or Matthew Boyd who had a huge HR/FB and do everything else well.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2019 13:02:39 GMT -5
If home runs crater, contact, defense and base running will be much more valuable. I'd even argue that these things like contact, defense and base running are much more valuable these days. Those things seem to be in rare supply. It's all about HR derby now. They all mash HRs, but I think the team that can hit a well timed single with a runner in scoring position, can pitch, run the bases better, and turn batted balls into outs more consistently will be at an advantage. I think those were traits that made huge differences on the 2018 Red Sox. Granted the HRs weren't quite as insane as they are now, but HRs were still being mashed. I think those smaller things were the things that made the huge difference on the 2018 Red Sox. They hit HRs but they weren't homer happy like the 2018 Yankees were. The Sox got the singles and doubles, particularly in clutch time. And they stole bases effectively, and as the year wore on, ran the bases very well. They played solid defense toward the end of the season once they got 2b straightened out (the one thing Kinsler did well). I think those traits were absent from the 2019 Red Sox, who I felt, got a big chunk of their runs from sitting back and waiting on the HR. I think it becomes far more valuable in the playoffs when it gets cold and it's harder to hit HR. That's one reason why they had such an easy time in the playoffs last year.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2019 13:05:32 GMT -5
I think you're getting a little hung up on how radical the change will be. It's going to look like 2014, not 1987. There will be changes at the margins as far as positional player value, but it's not going to be anything seismic. In fact, I might go the other direction. Identifying actual 25-30 home run hitters is going to be more important, whereas today CJ Cron is a DFA candidate and Christian Vazquez has 23 balls carry out of the park. Look at his HR/FB by year: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9774&position=C#battedball Don't buy guys with a huge HR/FB rate is a huge part of their value, and buy hitters like Robbie Ray or Matthew Boyd who had a huge HR/FB and do everything else well. Home runs have increased 62% since 2014 so even if it goes back to 2014 that's a pretty radical difference. And again, the point is that no one knows what MLB is going to do with the ball. They could do absolutely anything to it with no notice and it takes your well-built team and makes it entirely inefficient. Hell, they could increase offense even more while reducing HR. But we have no idea and presumably, neither do the people responsible for team building.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 1, 2019 13:09:46 GMT -5
Uh huh. And that's why the Dodgers and Yankees stopped doing it. Also, the entire league figured out that just about all value from baseball players comes in their first 6 seasons since then. No the new penalties would only explain those teams staying below the highest mark, not staying away from the luxury tax all together. So we should trade Betts for young players then right?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 1, 2019 13:11:27 GMT -5
I think you're getting a little hung up on how radical the change will be. It's going to look like 2014, not 1987. There will be changes at the margins as far as positional player value, but it's not going to be anything seismic. In fact, I might go the other direction. Identifying actual 25-30 home run hitters is going to be more important, whereas today CJ Cron is a DFA candidate and Christian Vazquez has 23 balls carry out of the park. Look at his HR/FB by year: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9774&position=C#battedball Don't buy guys with a huge HR/FB rate is a huge part of their value, and buy hitters like Robbie Ray or Matthew Boyd who had a huge HR/FB and do everything else well. Home runs have increased 62% since 2014 so even if it goes back to 2014 that's a pretty radical difference. But if you look at the players who were best in 2014 and they aren't stylistically a radically different type of player. The best players still tend to be the best players, they just homer more: www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2014-value-batting.shtml#players_value_batting::15Some of the marginal players now are probably different types than the marginal players then, but that's not rocket science either. Just don't rely on guys whose value came overwhelmingly from homers. Alex Avila will go back to beling like a 0.5 WAR player instead of like a 1.3 WAR player. You might consider replacing someone like him on the cheap. But the best hitters will still be the best hitters. You're really overthinking this. For what it's worth, the Red Sox are a team that gets a lot of its value from contact and walks and less of it from homers, so they're well-suited to a more tempered baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2019 13:22:51 GMT -5
Home runs have increased 62% since 2014 so even if it goes back to 2014 that's a pretty radical difference. But if you look at the players who were best in 2014 and they aren't stylistically a radically different type of player. The best players still tend to be the best players, they just homer more: www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2014-value-batting.shtml#players_value_batting::15Some of the marginal players now are probably different types than the marginal players then, but that's not rocket science either. Just don't rely on guys whose value came overwhelmingly from homers. You're really overthinking this. For what it's worth, the Red Sox are a team that gets a lot of its value from contact and walks and less of it from homers, so they're well-suited to a more tempered baseball. I agree with that, and it's also a major reason why so many pitchers had xFIPs that were a run or more lower than their ERAs. But they have no counter for giving up 4-5 cheap home runs in a game. The point is that MLB said they're going to try to alter the ball, but we don't know how and don't know when. Home runs might actually increase more for all we know, and that will screw the Red Sox more than teams who are loading up on every Vazquez type of hitter in baseball so they can have 12 20 HR players per team. I'm more talking about the periphery players than core players. If someone like Urshela is hitting 3 HR instead of 21, he's barely above replacement level instead of a 3 win player. Same goes for Vazquez.
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