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2019-20 Red Sox offseason
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Post by ramireja on Oct 2, 2019 16:53:28 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Oct 2, 2019 16:55:37 GMT -5
and more...
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2019 21:03:52 GMT -5
I think #3-5 make #2 pretty well understandable.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 2, 2019 22:43:53 GMT -5
The last paragraph restates the question I asked a few comments ago: who owns this thing? It's not as if Dombrowski didn't have an MO. Given his statements about trying to stay under the third threshold, he must have been hearing from ownership. Likely too little too late given the decisions that had been made.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 3, 2019 10:44:54 GMT -5
The last paragraph restates the question I asked a few comments ago: who owns this thing? It's not as if Dombrowski didn't have an MO. Given his statements about trying to stay under the third threshold, he must have been hearing from ownership. Likely too little too late given the decisions that had been made. I feel like if Sam Kennedy is the business guy, he should have communicated a financial vision after the WS for the next few years, and DDo should have been working within that framework; everyone knew all these bills were going to come due. If the ownership had other expectations/priorities (keeping a franchise player in Mookie; getting under $208 in 1-2 years; deepening the cheap labor pool) those should have been been part of the vision. Either those financial and other expectations were not communicated or DDo pressed to move outside them. I know in May Henry expressed displeasure at bringing back the same team; this is really the first time they've NOT lost a significant part of a championship the year after (your mileage may vary on Kimbrel's importance).
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2019 10:48:44 GMT -5
Seriously, if the Red Sox performed as expected this season, DD would still be the GM. So much overthinking going on here. I don't buy anything that Henry says that absolves him of responsibility. Scapegoats must be made.
Hopefully there were a lot of teachable moments so the same mistakes will not be made again. Especially the parts about falling in love with playoff heroes.
The main thing the Red Sox need is much better depth. The better teams in the league do not have black holes on the roster that their manager keeps rolling out there for more than half a season because there are no other options.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 3, 2019 12:20:15 GMT -5
The last paragraph restates the question I asked a few comments ago: who owns this thing? It's not as if Dombrowski didn't have an MO. Given his statements about trying to stay under the third threshold, he must have been hearing from ownership. Likely too little too late given the decisions that had been made. Leadership comes from the top, and so should accountability. If Henry and Werner gave Dombrowski the ability to make major acquisitions and their inherent major salaries without input, then those are the rules they set, and thus own. Anything else is resulting (and a failure of your top-level to take accountability - a major management mistake and glaring weakness of vanity that sets a bad example for everyone in the organization).
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 3, 2019 12:44:03 GMT -5
To change the subject I want to turn to the farm system, which everyone is down on for the most part.
The farm produced 3 guys that are close to the best at their positions in baseball in Mookie, Xander and Devers. Along with arguably the best OF in baseball. So many guys that we can't afford them all. And the farm was used to get major players which culminated in the best Sox team of all time, record wise. So the farm system has been very productive, even this year we had 2 or more guys that show they will be produvtive in the future.
My point is the farm has been and still is producing players, you can't expect a Mookie or a Devers every year. Heck 1 of those every 5 years would be good. and they have had 3. They have the guys to cobble together production at 1st til Casis is ready, they most likely have the next CF in the system. Their is hope with a few pitchers and they have utility guys ready to go.
When evaluating the system you have to take into consideration what it has already produced, IMO
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2019 12:52:18 GMT -5
To change the subject I want to turn to the farm system, which everyone is down on for the most part. The farm produced 3 guys that are close to the best at their positions in baseball in Mookie, Xander and Devers. Along with arguably the best OF in baseball. So many guys that we can't afford them all. And the farm was used to get major players which culminated in the best Sox team of all time, record wise. So the farm system has been very productive, even this year we had 2 or more guys that show they will be produvtive in the future. My point is the farm has been and still is producing players, you can't expect a Mookie or a Devers every year. Heck 1 of those every 5 years would be good. and they have had 3. They have the guys to cobble together production at 1st til Casis is ready, they most likely have the next CF in the system. Their is hope with a few pitchers and they have utility guys ready to go. When evaluating the system you have to take into consideration what it has already produced, IMO I don't think you'll get any arguments about what the farm has produced, but the problem is that it has stopped and barely provides any depth let alone core players that gives them some salary relief. Sam Travis, Marco Hernandez and Mike Chavis provided negative WAR overall this year. Darwinzon and Taylor were pleasant surprises. But they couldn't even get a few decent spot starts from anyone. Even a replacement level pitcher would have been a huge upgrade. At least Mata should be a decent depth option next year, but you need those guys every year.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 3, 2019 18:14:32 GMT -5
To change the subject I want to turn to the farm system, which everyone is down on for the most part. The farm produced 3 guys that are close to the best at their positions in baseball in Mookie, Xander and Devers. Along with arguably the best OF in baseball. So many guys that we can't afford them all. And the farm was used to get major players which culminated in the best Sox team of all time, record wise. So the farm system has been very productive, even this year we had 2 or more guys that show they will be produvtive in the future. My point is the farm has been and still is producing players, you can't expect a Mookie or a Devers every year. Heck 1 of those every 5 years would be good. and they have had 3. They have the guys to cobble together production at 1st til Casis is ready, they most likely have the next CF in the system. Their is hope with a few pitchers and they have utility guys ready to go. When evaluating the system you have to take into consideration what it has already produced, IMO I don't think you'll get any arguments about what the farm has produced, but the problem is that it has stopped and barely provides any depth let alone core players that gives them some salary relief. Sam Travis, Marco Hernandez and Mike Chavis provided negative WAR overall this year. Darwinzon and Taylor were pleasant surprises. But they couldn't even get a few decent spot starts from anyone. Even a replacement level pitcher would have been a huge upgrade. At least Mata should be a decent depth option next year, but you need those guys every year. I can't help but note that Margot and Allen are a couple of guys that would be awfully useful right about now. Margot could replace JBJ, who could be moved for further depth and help with the payroll crunch; or he could just platoon with JBJ, which would be a nice little duo. And Allen would be a hell of a lot more exciting as a #5 or 6 starter than Hector Velazquez or whatever. Now ideally what I would like is for everyone to rehash the Kimbrel trade for the next 5 pages.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 3, 2019 19:16:07 GMT -5
I don't think you'll get any arguments about what the farm has produced, but the problem is that it has stopped and barely provides any depth let alone core players that gives them some salary relief. Sam Travis, Marco Hernandez and Mike Chavis provided negative WAR overall this year. Darwinzon and Taylor were pleasant surprises. But they couldn't even get a few decent spot starts from anyone. Even a replacement level pitcher would have been a huge upgrade. At least Mata should be a decent depth option next year, but you need those guys every year. I can't help but note that Margot and Allen are a couple of guys that would be awfully useful right about now. Margot could replace JBJ, who could be moved for further depth and help with the payroll crunch; or he could just platoon with JBJ, which would be a nice little duo. And Allen would be a hell of a lot more exciting as a #5 or 6 starter than Hector Velazquez or whatever. Now ideally what I would like is for everyone to rehash the Kimbrel trade for the next 5 pages. Well gee, if you're going to play that game, how about this? Wouldn't it be nice to have Moncada at 2b (even if he's now a 3b) instead of Lin, Chavis, Chatham, or Hernandez or whoever is left to play 2b in 2020, and if the Sox need a cost controlled starter with a future, wouldn't Kopech be exciting? The Sox are short on OF prospects so Basabe would be an interesting prospect as well. The price of building the best team in Sox history, one that won the World Series, was losing depth options a year later. As aggravating as 2019 was it was a price worth paying. Depth is something a farm system should be able to keep producing or something you should be able to get (if you choose wisely or get lucky) off the scrapheap. The Red Sox failed to keep producing the former and didn't do a good job on the latter. Hence a new GM/POBO.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 3, 2019 21:58:33 GMT -5
I can't help but note that Margot and Allen are a couple of guys that would be awfully useful right about now. Margot could replace JBJ, who could be moved for further depth and help with the payroll crunch; or he could just platoon with JBJ, which would be a nice little duo. And Allen would be a hell of a lot more exciting as a #5 or 6 starter than Hector Velazquez or whatever. Now ideally what I would like is for everyone to rehash the Kimbrel trade for the next 5 pages. Well gee, if you're going to play that game, how about this? Wouldn't it be nice to have Moncada at 2b (even if he's now a 3b) instead of Lin, Chavis, Chatham, or Hernandez or whoever is left to play 2b in 2020, and if the Sox need a cost controlled starter with a future, wouldn't Kopech be exciting? The Sox are short on OF prospects so Basabe would be an interesting prospect as well. The price of building the best team in Sox history, one that won the World Series, was losing depth options a year later. As aggravating as 2019 was it was a price worth paying. Depth is something a farm system should be able to keep producing or something you should be able to get (if you choose wisely or get lucky) off the scrapheap. The Red Sox failed to keep producing the former and didn't do a good job on the latter. Hence a new GM/POBO. I was joking about rehashing the Kimbrel trade, but I'll just say this: I was for the Sale trade at the time and I think it meaningfully contributed to the team's success that culminated in the World Series victory. And I was against the Kimbrel trade at the time and I think it did not contribute meaningfully to the team's World Series victory. Agree that a farm system should be able to keep producing, but that's kind of my point. The best teams in the league right now - Dodgers, Astros, Yankees - have all avoided selling out the farms; there's widespread recognition that doing so is a trap. Of course you should trade prospects sometimes, but you have to find the right balance. See the paragraph above for where I think that balance should have been located.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 3, 2019 23:21:44 GMT -5
Well gee, if you're going to play that game, how about this? Wouldn't it be nice to have Moncada at 2b (even if he's now a 3b) instead of Lin, Chavis, Chatham, or Hernandez or whoever is left to play 2b in 2020, and if the Sox need a cost controlled starter with a future, wouldn't Kopech be exciting? The Sox are short on OF prospects so Basabe would be an interesting prospect as well. The price of building the best team in Sox history, one that won the World Series, was losing depth options a year later. As aggravating as 2019 was it was a price worth paying. Depth is something a farm system should be able to keep producing or something you should be able to get (if you choose wisely or get lucky) off the scrapheap. The Red Sox failed to keep producing the former and didn't do a good job on the latter. Hence a new GM/POBO. I was joking about rehashing the Kimbrel trade, but I'll just say this: I was for the Sale trade at the time and I think it meaningfully contributed to the team's success that culminated in the World Series victory. And I was against the Kimbrel trade at the time and I think it did not contribute meaningfully to the team's World Series victory. Agree that a farm system should be able to keep producing, but that's kind of my point. The best teams in the league right now - Dodgers, Astros, Yankees - have all avoided selling out the farms; there's widespread recognition that doing so is a trap. Of course you should trade prospects sometimes, but you have to find the right balance. See the paragraph above for where I think that balance should have been located. I saw it. I just don't agree with the premise that Kimbrel didn't contribute meaningfully. I think everybody narrows in on his post-season and forgets all those late inning leads that stayed leads with Kimbrel that might not have with other relievers. Winning 108 games put the Sox in the catbird seat for the playoffs. They needed just about every win that they got given how strong Houston and New York were. It gave them home field advantage all throughout the playoffs. Let's also not forget that they won the the division by just 2 games in 2017, the year Kimbrel truly dominated. They don't win the division with some basic closer, so there was value in that season as well. Really, if you can't replace a Manny Margot, a second division regular, or a back-end starter like Allen, then the problem isn't dealing the talent away as much as it is replenishing it or being able to find a Manny Margot or Logan Allen on the scrapheap or in a lesser deal. As it was, the Sox finished 19 games out. Doubt Margot and Allen would have made that much of a difference. They would have helped, to be sure, but that impact wouldn't have been as crucial as what Kimbrel cumulatively gave the Sox the 3 years they were truly playing important games, which for the most part, the Sox weren't doing in 2019.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 3, 2019 23:34:13 GMT -5
The Yankees have traded prospects without weakening their farm system because they have done a better job of drafting than the Sox have in recent years. The Sox have done a good job in the international market, but not so much in the draft. The records of the Sox minor league teams are proof of that.
However, as thin as the system is, Duran might be a replacement for JBJ in another year, and if not, Jimenez might be even better in a couple of years. Chatham is looking like a good candidate for 2B next season. I would not trade JBJ this off season.
The Sox should resign Moreland for another year with the idea of platooning him with either Chavis or Dalbec.
I would try hard to sign Betts to a long term deal at an insane amount of money, but if he insisted on going through FA, I would trade him for whatever I could get in top flight minor league pitchers. I then would target Castellanos as a replacement..
If JDM opts out - which I don't think he will do - then Chavis or Dalbec becomes the DH.
The big problem the Sox have is the starting pitching. There is no guarantee that the Sox will have more than one reliable starter next year. They are stuck with Sale, Price and Eovaldi and what are the odds that all, or even one of them, will be healthy all season?
If I were in charge - and I am totally unqualified to be so - I would try to find a way to get rid of at least one of them in a trade and then sign the top FA, Gerrit Cole and maybe Zack Wheeler. This might put the Sox over the salary limit the ownership wants but a good argument could be made for doing it - i.e. another first place finish.
Dombrowski's failure is that he did not have a plan. Every year requires a new plan and if properly thought through and presented to ownership it can be a winner.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 4, 2019 0:33:20 GMT -5
Well gee, if you're going to play that game, how about this? Wouldn't it be nice to have Moncada at 2b (even if he's now a 3b) instead of Lin, Chavis, Chatham, or Hernandez or whoever is left to play 2b in 2020, and if the Sox need a cost controlled starter with a future, wouldn't Kopech be exciting? The Sox are short on OF prospects so Basabe would be an interesting prospect as well. The price of building the best team in Sox history, one that won the World Series, was losing depth options a year later. As aggravating as 2019 was it was a price worth paying. Depth is something a farm system should be able to keep producing or something you should be able to get (if you choose wisely or get lucky) off the scrapheap. The Red Sox failed to keep producing the former and didn't do a good job on the latter. Hence a new GM/POBO. I was joking about rehashing the Kimbrel trade, but I'll just say this: I was for the Sale trade at the time and I think it meaningfully contributed to the team's success that culminated in the World Series victory. And I was against the Kimbrel trade at the time and I think it did not contribute meaningfully to the team's World Series victory. Agree that a farm system should be able to keep producing, but that's kind of my point. The best teams in the league right now - Dodgers, Astros, Yankees - have all avoided selling out the farms; there's widespread recognition that doing so is a trap. Of course you should trade prospects sometimes, but you have to find the right balance. See the paragraph above for where I think that balance should have been located. The Yanks and Dodgers haven't own a World Series yet. I disagree putting them on a pedestal over the Sox. I think in part Sox have won 4 titles in 15 years and we're not fans of other teams who probably are frustrated but we can't feel their frustration. Winning a title is everything. The idea is to win championships - not to come close. Until I see Yanks or Dodgers do it-- imo they have blown it to not try to win by spending more and selling off the farm a bit. We agree we loved the Sale trade and like you I fleet Sox gave up too much for Kimbrel but unlike you I think Kimbrle was an integral part of the championship and the 3 reg seasons. Even his awful playoffs - I think we also need to look at reg. season. Kimbrel was an important part of having home field advantage.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 4, 2019 5:07:17 GMT -5
The Red Sox farm system is arguably better than the Yankees. Not sure why they are in this discussion with Houston and LA.
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Post by jbsox on Oct 4, 2019 7:08:40 GMT -5
I brought this up previously, although not exactly this way, but it didn’t get much traction for conversation. My idea was if the Sox ate a portion of Price and/or Eovaldi’s contract to the point of getting them under the 208 threshold for little back in return, or add sweeteners as this article suggests. I like the way this article suggests of doing it even better where the receiving team pays for 2020 salary, and we subsidize salary for the following 2 seasons. We would have an even bigger hole in our starting rotation, but maybe we can trade for a cost controlled SP, bargain hunt for a SP (similar strategy we employed with RP last season), maybe someone like Houck or Hart surprises, and we could enter the free agent market next offseason aimed for making a strong big for someone if we aren’t worried about resetting the tax again for a while. It’s a risk for sure next year with our SP, but it may position us better to keep both JD and Betts. Just to add what I was talking about previously this kind of trade with Price would even given us a little breathing room under the 208 mil tax line. I was thinking what kind of sweetners would it take, and what are we willing to give up. Maybe one of Wilson or Duran? 3rd base is a position of strength in our system, and not a need for us. Maybe someone like Howlett? Cannon, maybe while he’s viewed as a viable prospect? I wouldn’t want to give up too much, but something like this I’m increasingly open too. If Eovaldi or Sale have a bounce back season I’d look to offload next year. It would certainly help with extensions we want to give out.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 4, 2019 7:21:21 GMT -5
Wilson as a sweetener in a Price trade? That would be like adding one or two grains of sugar to your coffee, right?
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Post by jbsox on Oct 4, 2019 7:32:11 GMT -5
Wilson as a sweetener in a Price trade? That would be like adding one or two grains of sugar to your coffee, right? After starting off the season slow Wilson came on very strong, and Price if healthy is still a viable 3 at least. What we are talking about essentially is the receiving team paying about 32 mil over 3 years, as we would be paying the rest. That’s like signing Price to a reasonable deal, and adding pieces around edges to make it work. You really think it would take our best prospects to make this work? This would get under the 208 limit which seems to be management’s goal.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 4, 2019 7:58:47 GMT -5
Marcus Wilson is cool and all, but he's not moving the needle on whether it's a good idea to take on Price's contract.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 4, 2019 8:37:20 GMT -5
Marcus Wilson is cool and all, but he's not moving the needle on whether it's a good idea to take on Price's contract. Agreed. The Sox would need to pay about 2/3 of Price's annual salary for another team to have interest. That would save them $10 million/year as would dealing JBJ and signing a Hamilton type until Duran is ready - although that's risky. More likely Betts would move to CF in that scenario and the Sox could have an easier time finding a scrap heap corner OF who doesn't cost much but will provide as much if not more offensive value than JBJ which would be offset by the hit on defense. But still that would save $20 million and might allow them to bring back both Betts and JDM. However, losing Price puts another big hole in the rotation. We've already seen how the Sox look without a healthy Price and Sale in the rotation - they're a sub-.500 team. It's telling that the Sox after peaking at 59-47 never reached 12 games over .500 again the rest of the season. They already have to replace Porcello and who knows how healthy/effective Sale and Eovaldi will be. So while I really like the idea to trade Price (and JBJ) to open up the $ room for both Betts and JDM it just makes it that much harder to find viable replacement starting pitching.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 4, 2019 8:54:02 GMT -5
Marcus Wilson is cool and all, but he's not moving the needle on whether it's a good idea to take on Price's contract. Agreed. The Sox would need to pay about 2/3 of Price's annual salary for another team to have interest. That would save them $10 million/year as would dealing JBJ and signing a Hamilton type until Duran is ready - although that's risky. More likely Betts would move to CF in that scenario and the Sox could have an easier time finding a scrap heap corner OF who doesn't cost much but will provide as much if not more offensive value than JBJ which would be offset by the hit on defense. But still that would save $20 million and might allow them to bring back both Betts and JDM. However, losing Price puts another big hole in the rotation. Which would be selling low, I think. If he's healthy and pitching anything like he was this year before the wrist injury, you could probably clear $20M or more of that contract and maybe even get a chip-in prospect back. Really, I think that's the strategy I'd be pushing as the new GM. Go for it next year and THEN if it doesn't work you trade everyone at the deadline and do the Yankees style quick rebuild. There's a risk that you end up not competing AND not getting under the cap because you got caught in the middle, or all the expensive guys got hurt and weren't tradable, but all your available options have a lot of risk when you're proposing to cut salary and fill multiple holes on the roster at the same time.
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Post by jbsox on Oct 4, 2019 8:59:52 GMT -5
Marcus Wilson is cool and all, but he's not moving the needle on whether it's a good idea to take on Price's contract. If the receiving team is essentially only paying a 3 year 32 mil contract (about 10 mil a year), you really think it will take some of our bigger prospects to move Price? Some of the good FA pitchers out there now probably won’t make any less than 15 mil a year, and the pillow bounce back guys like Porcello are probably around 1 year 10 mil. If the receiving team team is getting Price on a pretty reasonable deal, plus a few mid tier or so prospects I could see some teams taking that chance. Since this seems like a backlash of me throwing Wilson’s name out there among others to promote discussion for what minor leaguers it would take, I would not be surprised at all if Wilson ends up the better major leaguer than Duran. edit: I realize this idea could set our SP back, but if we are help bent on resetting the tax we can reload next year in the FA market, while keeping Betts and JD.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 4, 2019 9:01:41 GMT -5
One thing about Price is that the AAV is quite high, which is a problem for the Red Sox, but the time commitment is only three years, which might be enticing for a team that's under the tax threshold, has money to spend, and has decided to try. Ideally you wouldn't sell low on him (his ERA was 3.16 in mid-July!), but given the (false but apparent) choice between giving Price away and not resigning Mookie Betts, I'm okay with giving Price away. Seems like a better idea to do this next year, though. If he pitches well then teams are going to be interested in him at 2/$64. Marcus Wilson is cool and all, but he's not moving the needle on whether it's a good idea to take on Price's contract. If the receiving team is essentially only paying a 3 year 32 mil contract (about 10 mil a year), you really think it will take some of our bigger prospects to move Price? I'm saying that no team is a Marcus Wilson away from thinking David Price is a good idea. Wilson is the kind of guy who is the second piece for a pretty good player or a third piece for a very good one. The Red Sox would be absurdly stupid to subsidize 2/3 of Price's contract AND include a prospect. Price would definitely get more than 3/$32M on the open market.
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Post by jbsox on Oct 4, 2019 9:19:40 GMT -5
One thing about Price is that the AAV is quite high, which is a problem for the Red Sox, but the time commitment is only three years, which might be enticing for a team that's under the tax threshold, has money to spend, and has decided to try. Ideally you wouldn't sell low on him (his ERA was 3.16 in mid-July!), but given the (false but apparent) choice between giving Price away and not resigning Mookie Betts, I'm okay with giving Price away. Seems like a better idea to do this next year, though. If he pitches well then teams are going to be interested in him at 2/$64. If the receiving team is essentially only paying a 3 year 32 mil contract (about 10 mil a year), you really think it will take some of our bigger prospects to move Price? I'm saying that no team is a Marcus Wilson away from thinking David Price is a good idea. Wilson is the kind of guy who is the second piece for a pretty good player or a third piece for a very good one. The Red Sox would be absurdly stupid to subsidize 2/3 of Price's contract AND include a prospect. Price would definitely get more than 3/$32M on the open market. You are acting like Wilson is the only name I was coming with when all I was doing was trying to promote discussion throwing out a few names. You make think it’s stupid, but the idea came from an Alex Speier article to subsidize 2/3 of Price’s contract including a prospect. If the alternative is that or trading Betts or losing JD then it’s something to consider.
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