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2019-20 Red Sox offseason
gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 11, 2019 14:46:06 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale of USA Today is reporting that the Red Sox (and the Phillies) have a guy "with significant interest" in the vacant pitching coach job: Curt Schilling. Somehow, I just don't see this one happening, but I thought I'd pass on what I read in a WEEI article. Ahhhh, WEEI. Wasn’t Schill planning a run for Congress or the Senate? Can he do both at the same time?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2019 14:53:08 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale of USA Today is reporting that the Red Sox (and the Phillies) have a guy "with significant interest" in the vacant pitching coach job: Curt Schilling. Somehow, I just don't see this one happening, but I thought I'd pass on what I read in a WEEI article. Ahhhh, WEEI. Wasn’t Schill planning a run for Congress or the Senate? Can he do both at the same time? Well I read it on WEEI, but the story isn't from WEEI. It's Bob Nightengale of USA Today - and this is Schilling expressing interest, not the Red Sox. Although if making him pitching coach prevents him from running for Congress, I guess the Sox would have to make the sacrifice for our country, wouldn't they?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 11, 2019 18:07:38 GMT -5
I think Antonio Brown would be less of a distraction.
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Post by p23w on Oct 11, 2019 23:37:35 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale of USA Today is reporting that the Red Sox (and the Phillies) have a guy "with significant interest" in the vacant pitching coach job: Curt Schilling. Somehow, I just don't see this one happening, but I thought I'd pass on what I read in a WEEI article. I'm a big fan of #38. That said I have no clue as to what kind of pitching coach he would be. I have talked pitching with Shill and he is knowledgable. My guess is he's more into the mental/confidence aspect than he is into mechanics.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 19, 2019 14:50:52 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 20, 2019 15:44:52 GMT -5
The four friends actively continue to set the table for the new GM, while staying away from the big issues like replacing the pitching coach, making trades, etc. But It is probable they are also creating extension, trade, FA, coaching scenarios for the new boss to consider; or even to be discussed with the candidates during the review process. I wonder if they will be involved in the interviews.
The “four friends” was a good idea. To this end I can see hiring one of them as POBO and another as GM to continue this working relationship.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 20, 2019 16:55:31 GMT -5
Again, Sox' decision to scale down and not even dip a toe in the Cole market AND signing Sale instead of waiting to see how he does in the season, continues to drive me nuts. To wit: Just one tidbit about the object of my desire, Cole, who is a year younger than Sale, by Rob Bradford: Cole's...total number of pitches (19,781) is below where Jon Lester was (27,638) at when committing to six years with the Cubs, and also shy of Max Scherzer's 21,991 pitches at the time he became a free agent. David Price? His pitch count total when inking that seven-year contract with the Red Sox was 23,687. Washington's commitment to both Stephen Strasburg (7 years) and Patrick Corbin (6 years) came with each pitcher having thrown just shy of 15,000 pitches at the time of their agreements.Rest here.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 20, 2019 20:13:43 GMT -5
Hindsight, etc, etc. I thought at the time the Sale signing carried a lot of risk. But on March 1, if you had the opportunity to sign Chris Sale to 6/$150M or wait out the season to possibly have the chance to sign Gerrit Cole to 8/$250M, there aren't a lot of people who would've advocated for Cole.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 21, 2019 7:58:56 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 21, 2019 8:35:13 GMT -5
He was a teammate of Matt Barnes and George Springer at UConn.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 21, 2019 10:48:14 GMT -5
Fatse is in Arizona and was in Peoria last night. It's possible he's already working with the Sox contingent out there.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 21, 2019 14:45:23 GMT -5
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Post by bootsie16 on Oct 22, 2019 1:28:40 GMT -5
According to the Melbourne Aces website, Boston have signed ex Purdue North Central OFer Colin Willis and he will play with the Melbourne Aces this Australian summer.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 22, 2019 6:41:02 GMT -5
Welcome aboard bootsie.
Totally unrelated but a funny story in a twisted way. My first dog when I was about 7 was named Bootsie because as a puppy, she slept in a boot. She had a sad ending though, she was run over by a steam roller. You can't make this stuff up. Haha for years my sister and I mailed each other the same gift back and forth. A two sided large drawing of the dog on a piece of paper labeled Bootsie in 3D. Yes, I've always been a little off.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 25, 2019 14:17:10 GMT -5
Nice to see Vazquez get a Gold Glove nomination, along with the entire outfield.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 28, 2019 22:08:15 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 29, 2019 9:36:57 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Oct 29, 2019 12:48:27 GMT -5
How is this for optimism, I truly believe that Price, Sale and Eovoldi will have a combined WAR of + 14. And ERod will bring the top 4 starters to a total of +19, how do you like them apples. I am serious!! That is all of them pitching to their ability. I love your optimism, but (since they’ll need a 5, too), 20 WAR from a rotation is nearly unheard of. I think Sale can bounce back (Lester did, and got better, for example) into the 5-7 range. If Price is healthy he could be 3.5-5. I DO think ERod has made some incremental improvements each year, and if he continues healthy could certainly be a 4-5 guy, maybe (*maybe*) more, since he’s only 26 and his CH is stupid. He wasn’t much different this year than last, but he did do some subtle things with refining how he’s locating pitches, little different sequence, etc. His weighted FB value was over 10, which is really impressive considering the average velo (really probably plus for a LHSP I suppose). He’s gotten better at locating his 4FB vs 2FB, too. He remains a breakout candidate for sure, and there’s not much wear on his arm at all. The patella is old news. So cross our collective fingers he becomes a 1a (true 1?!) and not the solid 2 he is right now. And a shout out here for clearing 200 IP, which has become incredibly rare. I think your big overrate is Eovaldi, who has really never been healthy, and simply isn’t a 4-WAR guy even when he is. I do think he could be a 2-3 WAR guy, if he can find *some* combo of location/spin/deception/mix to boost the swing&miss. His control is excellent, but he sometimes doesn’t command at the edges, and for all the juice on the FB, he’s a lot more Joe Kelly than any of us like admitting. WAY too many hits allowed, suggesting he’s just not fooling anyone. The CU definitely helps, but it’s not a panacea. If he gets 180 IP in, I think 2.5 WAR would be a pleasant outcome. That’s a reasonably optimistic (rather than ultra-best-case) scenario of 6+4+4.5+2.5 of 17 WAR, which is still pretty freakin’ good. Like, rare good. Lop 2 wins off the top though, cuz someone’s gonna miss time. Even at 15, that’s still really good...and still optimistic. The wildcard, I think, is how they fill the 5. I’ve advocated acquiring Jon Gray; Zack Wheeler averaged almost 97 last year (zoinks) and has b-2-b 4 fWAR seasons. Idk what his market ends up being, but he’s seemed over the injury hump. Like Eovaldi, more contact than you’d think given the velo, but with some upside there. Put a guy in the 5 spot capable of 3-4.5 WAR, and I think the 19 WAR rotation prediction becomes eminently doable. FWIW, I think if JDM *does* opt out, they can get a guy like Wheeler on a 4/60 deal, saving $8-9M a year, and getting basically the same production. Acquire Gray, and it’s more like saving $15M this year (though the talent capital lost hurts).
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Post by telson13 on Oct 29, 2019 13:30:14 GMT -5
Walks don't hurt half so bad if your pitcher has a good split or sinker. The Sox don't have those pitchers in their arsenal. Instead they have guys like Barnes and Pocello. Sox had the 3rd fewest DP's in the league. They also lead the league in batters faced and number of pitches thrown. Botton line, they need a minimum of 650 quality IP from Sale, Eovaldi, ERod and Price in order to be in contention for the playoffs. In 2019 they got 475 not so quality IP from this quartet. Long way to go. They need a surprise acquisition (or emergence) to give them 160+ quality IP next year. I don't care who gets credit (scouts or stat geeks), the fan in me wants this to happen. After a delirious season with 108 wins, 80 something feels like last place. Barnes’s CB is a very effective GB pitch though. Porcello *has* had a good SI, just not this year. A good CH can work as a GB inducer too. Part of the low DP numbers, too, are: 1) not a very good INF defense, 2) high whiff rates (BP led the league I believe; overall as a staff they were second behind Houston in MLB at 9.99/9 IP), and 3) emphasis on the upper-zone 4FB to get those whiffs. They were only 18th in MLB in GB rate. FWIW, they were 10th in fewest HR/9, which is pretty good playing in Fenway. I absolutely agree that they need *at least* 650 IP (probably more like 700) from the front four. A legit 3/4-quality starter in the 5 spot, who can provide 170-180+ IP would be a huge boon too. They had the 4th-worst BB/9 in MLB, so obviously that needs to change. Cut it from 3.70 to 3.20 and you’re talking a significant quality improvement in ERA, provided the rest stays the same. As James noted, part of that is simply a talent/rotation health issue. FWIW, the bullpen was pretty good despite being a lot of sorta- no-names. Having guys like Darwinzon and Taylor around all year, and provided Workman really is this new guy, and Barnes doesn’t get abused...well, the ‘pen quality will probably be even better. Certainly, the *depth* quality could be much better if Houck, Mata, Feltman, and any fliers they take can come through, or Brasier bounces back a little and Walden is a smidge more consistent. Because of the injury issues and lack of really established ‘pen options, this is a very high-variance pitching staff. I think the major keys to reducing that variance are, in order of importance, 1) a “5” with inning-eating mid-rotation capability and 2 upside, to reduce BP load and hedge against TOR absences, 2) sufficient 6-7-8 depth to weather a prolonged rotation absence without the 5-spot horror show we saw this year, 3) additional BP depth that includes some *relative* reliability, such that fall-off in the better BP arms or stretches of their ineffectiveness can be moderated. The Sox don’t need a supreme rotation, although it’s nice. They don’t need an uber-pen like NY either, especially if the rotation is solid-but-not-spectacular (a panel of essentially healthy 2/3 performers for all five spots). Their offense is good enough, even if they lose JDM. A top-10 rotation, top-10 bullpen, and top-5 offense with some defensive improvement/consistency is a very solid playoff team.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 29, 2019 14:31:16 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox offseason is over before it even starts. I dont think the Sox will make any moves at all except to let all the free agents walk away. I dont think JD opts out. I dont think any trades are made. I think all the open spots on the 25 & 40 man roster will be filled from within the organization. It wouldn't surprise me if the season started with only 38 or 39 on the MLB Roster. The 2020 Season all rides on the health of Sale (Along with Price, Eovaldi & E. Rod.) but mostly Sale.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 29, 2019 14:56:07 GMT -5
I'll throw some stuff out here.
I think JDM is gone and I think the Red Sox will trade very little to get Martinez from the Cardinals. He's a natural DH who really doesn't have a position but can hit. He just needs ABs and not to play defense.
I think ultimately Betts sticks around, but will get dealt in July next season - since I'm throwing out wacky predictions - I think Chris Sale will wind up needing surgery and the Sox will be on the fringe of the pennant race and make the call to get what they can for Betts.
Then when 2020 is done and the Sox have stayed under the luxury tax limit, they will "replace" Betts through free agency and sign the CT kid - George Springer as his replacement and do so somehow without ridiculously overpaying.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 29, 2019 16:57:40 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox offseason is over before it even starts. I dont think the Sox will make any moves at all except to let all the free agents walk away. I dont think JD opts out. I dont think any trades are made. I think all the open spots on the 25 & 40 man roster will be filled from within the organization. It wouldn't surprise me if the season started with only 38 or 39 on the MLB Roster. The 2020 Season all rides on the health of Sale (Along with Price, Eovaldi & E. Rod.) but mostly Sale. Unless you think they're entering the season with Brian Johnson as the 5th starter and that they're going to pay Sandy Leon something like 2.8MM, there's no way this happens. They also didn't just go get Chaim Bloom to have him stay put this offseason.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 29, 2019 17:17:00 GMT -5
Yes, Johnson as the 5th starter along with others, maybe even as piggybacks or openers.
Leon could be non tendered and they go with Vazquez for 110 - 125 games with Centeno as the back up Catcher.
Bloom not making big moves this off season does not mean he is "staying put"
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 29, 2019 20:11:07 GMT -5
Speaking of Mr. Bloom, he of the Rays, the team which pioneered such creative uses of pitching as the opener, it is possible the Sox approach to pitching will change. Even more possible since the pioneering efforts of S. Cora with the floater in 2018, and his insistence on resting players.
Consider that Sale, Eovaldi, Price, on large and long contracts, are already dealing with injuries, and that 2019 was ERod’s first season without major injury. The only healthy horse, Porcello, is likely gone. This rotation needs to be both augmented and wisely deployed to contribute effectively through the season and postseason.
Openers and some form of 6-man rotations might be in our future. It makes good sense. I know that Sale historically pitches better on longer rest, which should also allow him to be stronger longer. I’m unsure about the rest but think only Porcello preferred every five days. They all might be better operating outside the traditional 5-day format.
I agree another SP is essential, and Wheeler would be perfect. And another longman for the Pen. Even without JD the offense is powerful with additional pop from Chavis (2b) and Dalbec (1b) and maybe re-signing MM or other low cost 1b/DH. I wouldn’t bet on this but a new approach might even include a 9-man Pen and 3-man bench as we had for much of 2018 and 2019, made possible by the Brockstar. Gennett’s offense may rebound, but IMO he is a considerably worse defender than Chavis, Holt, Lin, even Marco. Why not stick with Chavis and Holt. I would rather a platoon at 1B/DH. Finally, has anyone considered that JBJ might sign a 3+1 deal at $8-9M right now? Or that Holt would love to stay at 2+1 at $4.5-5M, keeping the Sox versatility and top OF intact? Boy are we gonna see some changes in the next couple of years.
Edit: 9-man pen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 29, 2019 20:35:30 GMT -5
Speaking of Mr. Bloom, he of the Rays, the team which pioneered such creative uses of pitching as the opener, it is possible the Sox approach to pitching will change. Even more possible since. the pioneering efforts of S. Cora with the floater in 2018, and his insistence on resting players. Consider that Sale, Eovaldi, Price, on large and long contracts, are already dealing with injuries, and that 2019 was ERod’s first season without major injury. The only healthy horse, Porcello, is likely gone. This rotation needs to be both augmented and wisely deployed to contribute effectively through the season and postseason. Openers and some form of 6-man rotations might be in our future. It makes good sense. I know that Sale historically pitches better on longer rest, which should also allow him to be stronger longer. I’m unsure about the rest but think only Porcello preferred every five days. They all might be better operating outside the traditional 5-day format. I agree another SP is essential, and Wheeler would be perfect. And another longman for the Pen. Even without JD the offense is powerful with additional pop from Chavis (2b) and Dalbec (1b) and maybe re-signing MM or other low cost 1b/DH. I wouldn’t bet on this but a new approach might even include a 10-man Pen and 3-man bench as we had for much of 2018 and 2019, made possible by the Brockstar. Gennett’s offense may rebound, but IMO he is a considerably worse defender than Chavis, Holt, Lin, even Marco. Why not stick with Chavis and Holt. I would rather a platoon at 1B/DH. Finally, has anyone considered that JBJ might sign a 3+1 deal at $8-9M right now? Or that Holt would love to stay at 2+1 at $4.5-5M, keeping the Sox versatility and top OF intact? Boy are we gonna see some changes in the next couple of years. Honestly, I wouldn't want JBJ beyond next season. He's not going to get better as a hitter as he ages and he's not going to improve defensively as he ages. Whether it's this offseason or next, it's approaching the time to cut the chord with JBJ and find somebody else. I also don't see the Sox spending money on a FA starting pitcher. I don't see, even with JDM gone, them spending that kind of money when they're trying to cut payroll. As far as Moreland goes, I doubt he's back unless it's dirt cheap. Even then, I would think Dalbec gets first crack at 1b, because 3b isn't available to him, and I think Chavis should get a lot of ABs as a DH, although he'll play some 1b and some 2b. I do think the Sox either bring back Holt at a big discount or go after another lefty hitting 2b - like a Gennett. I think Houck will get every chance to get plugged into the rotation as Porcello's replacement. It's the most cost effective option. Of course, I hate to say it, but if both JDM AND Mookie go, the Sox will have additional talent coming in via a Mookie trade and a lot more money to spend on needed upgrades, not that I want to see either go - I'd like them both to stay. Either way, I think the Sox are determined to stay under the limit. And if it was just JDM who went they'd still be struggling to stay under, even with Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, 75% of Sandoval's annual deal off the books (the Sox still owe a $5 million buy-out). There's arbitration raises and Sale's money kicking in, so unless Mookie goes in addition to JDM it's hard to see where the money comes from for upgrades.
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