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2019-20 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 22, 2019 12:35:35 GMT -5
That's a bit of a gamble for the Mariners, but if he puts up a 3 WAR season at any time during that period he earns the entire contract. The rest of his performance would be money in the bank for the team. He may have left quite a bit on the table. Disagree that it's a risk to the team. That's only $4M a year. That's nothing. As JJ Cooper points out on Twitter, CJ Cron, who's been DFAed before, has made $18M pre-FA. White only needs to be a little better than a player in danger of being cut every year to justify the contract. Thread is worth reading I think this is the next big "financial trend" in baseball, and I like it a lot from both sides.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,685
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Post by nomar on Nov 22, 2019 12:56:46 GMT -5
Very high level, but looking at White’s K:BB and ISO, as well as considering he’s tied to playing 1B, I think this is a very smart move. There’s a real chance he’s not good enough to hang. Getting that much guaranteed in the grand scheme of things protects his family for at least the next couple generations if he’s smart with his money, which this move would indicate.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 22, 2019 13:35:48 GMT -5
Every single time a contract goes bad on the Yankees, the Post always has INSIDE SOURCES that they are filing a grievance, and then it never actually happens because that's really not how it works.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 22, 2019 13:40:02 GMT -5
That's a bit of a gamble for the Mariners, but if he puts up a 3 WAR season at any time during that period he earns the entire contract. The rest of his performance would be money in the bank for the team. He may have left quite a bit on the table. Disagree that it's a risk to the team. That's only $4M a year. That's nothing. As JJ Cooper points out on Twitter, CJ Cron, who's been DFAed before, has made $18M pre-FA. White only needs to be a little better than a player in danger of being cut every year to justify the contract. Thread is worth reading What is the distribution of likely outcomes for a player like this? Let's say it's an 80% chance he could make $50-150 million over the next 9 years; a 15% chance he only makes $5-50 million, and a 5% chance he makes only a million or two. I think those would be very generous assumptions. If it were you, would you roll the dice on the above probabilities or take a guaranteed $24 million? I would take the guaranteed money. There is just very little practical difference between $24 million and $150 million; either way it's, like, plenty of money for an entire lifetime. But if you only make a couple million, well, that's not shabby, but not do-whatever-you-want-for-the-rest-of-your-life-and-your-kids'-lives-too territory. And of course if does perform at a $150 million dollar level, he'd still be able to tack on at least a few tens of millions more after this contract expired.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 22, 2019 13:48:57 GMT -5
The difference with White's calculus is that I'm not convinced he should be in the majors yet. $24M for years 1-6 is kind of a no-brainer for the Mariners, but since it's more like years AAA-5, then I'd argue the Mariners are taking on some risk.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 22, 2019 14:59:23 GMT -5
Every single time a contract goes bad on the Yankees, the Post always has INSIDE SOURCES that they are filing a grievance, and then it never actually happens because that's really not how it works. Imagine how stupid it would be for someone to write an article about how the Red Sox are going to file a grievance against Pedroia because he didn't follow their rehab plans for him. Everyone would be pissed.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 22, 2019 15:01:52 GMT -5
The difference with White's calculus is that I'm not convinced he should be in the majors yet. $24M for years 1-6 is kind of a no-brainer for the Mariners, but since it's more like years AAA-5, then I'd argue the Mariners are taking on some risk. It's nowhere near the steal that Albies is. 7 yr, $35M (2019-25), 2026-27 club options AAV: $5M (signed after a 3.8 fWAR season in 2018) After a 4.6 fWAR season in 2019, he was already worth close to double that contract even if he never played again.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 22, 2019 15:15:11 GMT -5
The Albies contract is the worst ever signed by a player. He's someone who grew up tremendously poor, has at least a couple younger siblings, and they lost their father when Ozzie was 16 - so it's not hard to imagine his family being under some serious financial stress. That the Braves would take advantage of that and his agent not better advise him is unconscionable. That they would include club options at the end that won't even be league average salary by then? My god.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 22, 2019 15:25:36 GMT -5
The Albies contract is the worst ever signed by a player. He's someone who grew up tremendously poor, has at least a couple younger siblings, and they lost their father when Ozzie was 16 - so it's not hard to imagine his family being under some serious financial stress. That the Braves would take advantage of that and his agent not better advise him is unconscionable. That they would include club options at the end that won't even be league average salary by then? My god. For all the focus on the Astros and Cardinals, the general evil of the Braves organization is not recognized as often as it should be.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,752
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Post by mobaz on Nov 22, 2019 15:31:32 GMT -5
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Nov 22, 2019 16:13:22 GMT -5
Heavy weight battle between the Yankees and Scott Boras. It will interesting to hear what Boras' take is on this one.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 22, 2019 16:36:35 GMT -5
So, uhh... if I were a free agent considering signing with the Yankees, this is something I might take note of. Corollary: seems super penny-wise and pound-foolish on the part of the Yankees.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 22, 2019 16:42:48 GMT -5
So, uhh... if I were a free agent considering signing with the Yankees, this is something I might take note of. Corollary: seems super penny-wise and pound-foolish on the part of the Yankees. If it gets rid of that private medical team of boras.. it's worth it. how many remember when Ells disappeared without a word on his whereabouts that 1 season.. was it the year he ran into Beltre? Getting his "care" from the Boras team instead of Sox dr's and not returning calls/messages?
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Post by taftreign on Nov 22, 2019 16:44:46 GMT -5
So this is Cashman's plan for how he can afford Cole.
Just choose to not pay another player. This is a very dangerous precedent for baseball to get into and the union should be on top of this with a heavy hand. Not sure what "outside medical treatment" would warrant this kind of response but it comes across very petty and cheap.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 22, 2019 17:49:46 GMT -5
So this is Cashman's plan for how he can afford Cole. Just choose to not pay another player. This is a very dangerous precedent for baseball to get into and the union should be on top of this with a heavy hand. Not sure what "outside medical treatment" would warrant this kind of response but it comes across very petty and cheap. Good luck to them then. I see absolutely no way that they're going to win that battle. And they're not going to sign Cole. They're going to trade for a pitcher not sign one, probably using Andujar. The Steinbrenner kids are cheap AF.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 23, 2019 1:17:29 GMT -5
The refusal seems like a longshot, one they won't make given that the union is sure to appeal. It may do nothing more than irritate Boras', so they're not exactly laying the groundwork for signing one of his clients. Ellsbury's contract has been a sunk cost for a while and it's probably grating on them. I don't know what's in there, but the language would have to be very specific for them to have any hope of recouping that money.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 23, 2019 2:30:13 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,685
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Post by nomar on Nov 23, 2019 9:37:09 GMT -5
Every single time a contract goes bad on the Yankees, the Post always has INSIDE SOURCES that they are filing a grievance, and then it never actually happens because that's really not how it works. I scoffed so hard at that when I saw it. What a joke. Sick “journalism”
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Post by bluechip on Nov 23, 2019 12:39:49 GMT -5
The Albies contract is the worst ever signed by a player. He's someone who grew up tremendously poor, has at least a couple younger siblings, and they lost their father when Ozzie was 16 - so it's not hard to imagine his family being under some serious financial stress. That the Braves would take advantage of that and his agent not better advise him is unconscionable. That they would include club options at the end that won't even be league average salary by then? My god. How is a player freely signing a multi-million contract unconscionable? He chose to sign that contract. There was nothing forcing him to do so. You realize that the salary he would have earned in 2019, without signing that contract, would put him in the top one percent of Americans, and far exceeds the pay of nearly every other Braves employee, including likely Senior Vice Presidents. I don’t know his family situation, but I don’t see anything unethical in anything the Braves did in signing him.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 23, 2019 18:16:04 GMT -5
The Yankees are delusional as usual. There gonna have to pay Ellsbury. Now they have an issue with him going to an outside rehab? Unless they expressed it to him Last year.
I love the fact every year goes by and the genius Cashman goes back to the drawing board. I just love crapping on this team. Most of there overrated prospects. Another bite the dust Bird the first baseman of the future.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 24, 2019 1:33:12 GMT -5
The Albies contract is the worst ever signed by a player. He's someone who grew up tremendously poor, has at least a couple younger siblings, and they lost their father when Ozzie was 16 - so it's not hard to imagine his family being under some serious financial stress. That the Braves would take advantage of that and his agent not better advise him is unconscionable. That they would include club options at the end that won't even be league average salary by then? My god. How is a player freely signing a multi-million contract unconscionable? He chose to sign that contract. There was nothing forcing him to do so. You realize that the salary he would have earned in 2019, without signing that contract, would put him in the top one percent of Americans, and far exceeds the pay of nearly every other Braves employee, including likely Senior Vice Presidents. I don’t know his family situation, but I don’t see anything unethical in anything the Braves did in signing him. I don't see it as unconscionable, but I do think he needs to be compared to his cohorts not the general public. If the game generates that much money, I would like to see some equity, and in the context of MLB this doesn't come close. Albies has already been worth something like $60 - $80 million to the Braves. Why should the team get to spend that and not him? He might very well be able to figure out what to do with it in his home country. It's easy to understand the choice he made given the extreme distortion in MLB's salary scale for pre-arb players, but it does not justify the limited options he faced. Let's be very conservative and say that he's at his peak, that he'll average 4 wins per season over the length of the contract. That's over $200 million in value. Just my opinion but he deserves a much bigger share of that. He should get to decide what to do with it. I do understand why there's some outrage on the board.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 24, 2019 4:04:30 GMT -5
How is a player freely signing a multi-million contract unconscionable? He chose to sign that contract. There was nothing forcing him to do so. You realize that the salary he would have earned in 2019, without signing that contract, would put him in the top one percent of Americans, and far exceeds the pay of nearly every other Braves employee, including likely Senior Vice Presidents. I don’t know his family situation, but I don’t see anything unethical in anything the Braves did in signing him. I don't see it as unconscionable, but I do think he needs to be compared to his cohorts not the general public. If the game generates that much money, I would like to see some equity, and in the context of MLB this doesn't come close. Albies has already been worth something like $60 - $80 million to the Braves. Why should the team get to spend that and not him? He might very well be able to figure out what to do with it in his home country. It's easy to understand the choice he made given the extreme distortion in MLB's salary scale for pre-arb players, but it does not justify the limited options he faced. Let's be very conservative and say that he's at his peak, that he'll average 4 wins per season over the length of the contract. That's over $200 million in value. Just my opinion but he deserves a much bigger share of that. He should get to decide what to do with it. I do understand why there's some outrage on the board. See that’s not a team versus player problem. That’s an internal union problem in a situation that Marvin Miller internationally created. Teams are going to spend a certain budget. Veteran players who have “put their time in” are going to want to get the largest share of that money. If you increase the salaries for early career players, that is less money that is going to be spent on veterans. May be it is not dollar for dollar less, but that is what veterans will fear.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 24, 2019 15:19:57 GMT -5
I agree, it definitely needs to be addressed. As I said, it's easy to see how a player faces limited choices given the current scheme and the potential for a career changing injury.
Miller did what he could to change the system. He had to organize for years just to get free agency introduced. That created the first real opportunity for players to share the wealth. What has reworked that compromise is the availability of reams of data. So yes, it's time for the MLBPA to take a stand. This will not be easy.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 24, 2019 15:29:53 GMT -5
They used his family's poverty as leverage to buy out his first three years of free agency at FAR below market cost. If you're cool with that, or think it's a "union" issue and that employers taking advantage of their employees is just the invisible hand resolving the free market, whatever.
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Post by Addam603 on Nov 24, 2019 17:10:39 GMT -5
Travis D’Arnaud signs with the Braves for 2 years, 16 million. Braves are striking early and often in free agency. Interesting strategy given the slow offseason in recent years.
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