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A Mookie Betts Trade Return
Smittyw
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Posts: 1,264
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 13, 2019 10:17:19 GMT -5
No that’s not a joke article. Well that's a matter of opinion. Man it's going to be a long offseason...
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Post by texs31 on Nov 13, 2019 11:12:03 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2019 12:17:34 GMT -5
I just read the Abrham article and my god it hurts my brain. Frazier in Fenway's RF? Andujar at 2B? Not even a 50 FV prospect coming back AND they're selling as low as possible on Groome?
Red Sox fans deserve better writers.
And the CHB article about how Mookie is overrated is even worse.
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Post by texs31 on Nov 13, 2019 12:22:31 GMT -5
FWIW, Gil was given a 55 in both the BP and BA updates this week. King was 13 on BP's update.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2019 12:37:50 GMT -5
FWIW, Gil was given a 55 in both the BP and BA updates this week. King was 13 on BP's update. And BP still has Groome as a 60. TINSTAAPP I would have to think awhile about even trading Groome for Gil and King.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2019 12:38:41 GMT -5
Why is it I’m not remotely shocked that Pete Abraham came up with a trade where I wouldn’t want a single player he mentions coming back? As James noted, Frazier is rapidly barreling towards obscurity. That ship has sailed. Andujar is a nice hitter but any value he has is destroyed by atrocious defense (2b?!?!) He has no (viable) spot on the Sox, and a torn labrum is a huge deal. No thanks. King...I wouldn’t even rate. Local boy story is nice, but he’s a replacement level guy/AAAA type. Yeah, again, no thanks. Gil is intriguing, so maybe I’m selling PeteAbe a little short. But Gil is a long ways away, so he’d be a third or ideally forth piece in a deal. And including Groome (essentially for Gil, which isn’t a 1:1 I’m sure I’d make) is just...well, it’s stupid. What does his inclusion add to the deal? Why not Mookie for three instead of adding Groome for 4? Basically, it’s a Mookie for garbage return (trade 1), and former possible #1 overall LHSP post-injuries for rising wild-but-great-FB RHP-probable reliever (trade 2). I certainly don’t make the first, and I balk at the second. Just...atrocious work there. If you’re gonna write an article, at least put a modicum of creativity into it.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2019 12:43:23 GMT -5
Poor Pete. Just wishcasting here/playing for clicks and not really keeping up with the real world or knowing legit prospect evaluations. Sad.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2019 12:45:24 GMT -5
FWIW, Gil was given a 55 in both the BP and BA updates this week. King was 13 on BP's update. And BP still has Groome as a 60. TINSTAAPP I would have to think awhile about even trading Groome for Gil and King. Not me. I would hang up immediately.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2019 12:47:52 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Nov 13, 2019 12:53:51 GMT -5
FWIW, Gil was given a 55 in both the BP and BA updates this week. King was 13 on BP's update. And BP still has Groome as a 60. TINSTAAPP I would have to think awhile about even trading Groome for Gil and King. Wasnt defending the idea. Just saying there IS a 50 prospect in the proposal. Nothing more.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2019 13:05:03 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2019 13:23:04 GMT -5
And after watching Mookie in Fenway's RF for 5 years, how in the holy hell can Abraham suggest Frazier as being the new RF? Keep in mind that WAR does not correctly adjust for Fenway's RF. There is one defensive positional adjustment for all 30 teams. A bad RF in Fenway will hurt the team far more than in any other park and a good RF will help the team far more than in any other park.
And I'd also like to send that comment to CHB to point out how Mookie is UNDERrated.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2019 13:33:49 GMT -5
Maybe a neat thought excitement but this doesn't carry much weight for me. The entire exercise is a series of assumptions.
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Post by texs31 on Nov 13, 2019 13:46:09 GMT -5
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Post by congusgambler33 on Nov 13, 2019 14:21:06 GMT -5
I would never trade Mookie to the Yankees, a team in the same division that always fleeces us in trades. No way,zip, nada.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2019 14:46:25 GMT -5
Poor Pete. Just wishcasting here/playing for clicks and not really keeping up with the real world or knowing legit prospect evaluations. Sad. I think that’s what most annoys me...this is a trade out of 1985. The gross ignorance of prospect evaluation is the most egregious failing, but...well, the Globe has the excellent Alex Speier, so I guess I can partially forgive Abraham for being so out of touch...he’s really still there as a mouthpiece for the casual (and particularly old-school) fan. That’s modestly ok, in that the Globe has him pigeonholed into a role, which he’s fulfilling. Of course, you’d hope out of sheer professionalism that he’d at least get familiar with the modern game, especially with the exploding emphasis on player development and future valuation, but...I digress. The more insidious failing here, especially for a guy who IS reporting from an old school vantage, is the poor evaluation of MLB talent. Frazier still has raw power, but every indication is that (and sadly, the concussion history may be part of it), his skills haven’t developed and actually appear to be deteriorating. Certainly, that could be partially a poor organizational match, but the fact is, he’s just not a good “bet.” He’s much more Allen Craig than he is David Ortiz. And to top it off, the idea of him in RF in Fenway is farcical. That’s just a glaring omission from Abraham’s reasoning. It’s a bad FIT, even if one were to dream on Frazier as the .270/.340/.500 guy he seemed destined to be. At BEST, he’s Nick Castellanos with a smidge more power. Any offensive value he provides will be grossly negatively impacted by his damage on defense. Pete Abe should recognize that immediately. And Andujar is a similar story, albeit with more offensive upside. Pre-injury, Miguel looked like a potentially excellent offensive player...sort of a JDM lite. While there’s value in that, it’s significantly reduced by redundancy...the presence of *actual* JDM, ostensibly for three more years. Andujar can’t be stashed st DH. I can’t remotely see him at 2b...that’s just, well, bizarre. Taking a guy whose defensive failings are related to range, footwork, and transfers/control, and putting him at a position which requires more...it’s just very, very stupid. Look at his defensive stats...the most telling being, I think, that even on “unlikely” plays (10-40% made probability), he sat at just 6.7%. An average player makes 25% or so. And below that point, Andujar made ZERO plays. And the one thing he DID (can’t say does, because of the labrum tear) have was an arm...and Abraham wants to put him at the two spots on the diamond where that’s least valuable. Again, just a very, very poor FIT, without even getting into the issues re: Bogey and whoever is at 1b. Frankly, I think putting Dalbec at 1b, where he could (should?) very likely be a plus defender...along with moderate offensive production (.240/.320/.480 with 30 HR)...well, he’s probably a wash with Andujar overall, or close to it within a couple of years. So there’s just no VALUE added with getting Andujar, because he’d be redundant (CIF, DH) or woefully ill-equipped (2b). If the Sox really wanted to trade Mookie to NY, it’d have to be something more like Andujar (who I’d immediately flip, since he does have value, just not much to the Sox), Deivi Garcia (who becomes the 5 ideally mid-season or likely at least by September), Gil, and maybe Florial (whose stock is dropping a bit), or Roansy Contreras, who’s a couple years away but has plenty of raw stuff (tho who may, like Darwinzon, ultimately be relegated to the bullpen by his command issues). Tbh, try probably don’t get a fourth piece. It’s not a package I’d be all that ecstatic about, although Andujar, if he is back and hitting, could be flipped mid-season when Dalbec’s ready, and should return another couple/three quality prospects (say, a 55 FV if Andujar’s back to .300/.330/.500, and maybe another 50 and a low-level 40+-45); a contender might overpay and that’s Andujar’s main value to the Sox). Problem with Andujar is the massive risk attached...if it weren’t then the Sox wouldn’t be getting him for 1year of Mookie. Hell, maybe *Andujar* should be the RF in Mookie’s absence, if he can still throw. Idk, it just all seems so...click-baity and ill-conceived. I maintain that if I’m the Sox, I’d want maximal upside, all prospects (unless taking on salary), and at least one guy close to stepping in. Given their massive glut of talent, I’d target SD...Mookie would have peak value for them, instantly turning them into a contender. Maybe Urías (if they’ve soured on him some) and/or Patiño, plus Campusano (they need C options, and he looks like the real deal by 2022), and probably Morejon or even Baez (or Espinoza). The Padres have something like 12 50+ FV guys...they’re equipped to overpay, and they’re most likely to benefit most from doing so. There’s so much redundancy in their organization that they’re one of few teams capable of putting together an enticing package and having basically no negative fallout. Otherwise, the Sox should be all-in on 2020 with Mookie on board. End of story.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2019 14:47:36 GMT -5
I would never trade Mookie to the Yankees, a team in the same division that always fleeces us in trades. No way,zip, nada. Not always. We got Tony Armas Jr for Mike Stanley, then promptly outbid NY for Pedro with Pavano and...you guessed it, Tony Armas Jr.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2019 15:06:22 GMT -5
In fairness, I think the Ruiz/Downs/Gray package is a very solid one. I’m not sold on the others. Add another guy like Amaya, and it’s a winner. Regardless, any of these deals kills their 2020 chances. So unless they get a big overpay, and go hard after Mookie in FA, as the Clemens fg article notes, moving Mookie is a mistake, even before accounting for the PR mess, lost ticket sales, etc.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,722
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Post by mobaz on Nov 13, 2019 15:11:01 GMT -5
I would never trade Mookie to the Yankees, a team in the same division that always fleeces us in trades. No way,zip, nada. Not always. We got Tony Armas Jr for Mike Stanley, then promptly outbid NY for Pedro with Pavano and...you guessed it, Tony Armas Jr. What baseball player is known for 4 body parts? Toe Knee Arm Ass. What baseball player is known for 5 body parts? Toe Knee Arm Ass Junior. Terrible joke I heard in the Fenway bleachers as a teenager. Always stuck with me, not the least because one of our crew kept asking "What's the junior?"
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Post by soxfaninnj on Nov 13, 2019 16:48:56 GMT -5
So the proposal is to give the MFY the second best player in baseball for a third baseman who can’t play third a rf who can’t play rf and two pitching prospects who aren’t as good as groome. And what happens if groome becomes the ace for the Yankees?? Like really?
Add, I rather lose him for a 4th round pick than watch him play for the MFY
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Post by borisman on Nov 13, 2019 17:01:21 GMT -5
Is Jim Bowden ever right or is he the Charley Casserly of baseball?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 13, 2019 18:37:03 GMT -5
I just read the Abrham article and my god it hurts my brain. Frazier in Fenway's RF? Andujar at 2B? Not even a 50 FV prospect coming back AND they're selling as low as possible on Groome? Red Sox fans deserve better writers. And the CHB article about how Mookie is overrated is even worse. Betts for Andujar (and I don't know why he needed to make it more complicated than that) is a trade that... I think both sides say no to? The Yankees need pitching, not a $30m rental outfielder.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 13, 2019 18:55:35 GMT -5
Is Jim Bowden ever right or is he the Charley Casserly of baseball? I'd say comparing Bowden to Casserly is an insult to Casserly.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 13, 2019 19:23:37 GMT -5
I just read the Abrham article and my god it hurts my brain. Frazier in Fenway's RF? Andujar at 2B? Not even a 50 FV prospect coming back AND they're selling as low as possible on Groome? Red Sox fans deserve better writers. And the CHB article about how Mookie is overrated is even worse. Betts for Andujar (and I don't know why he needed to make it more complicated than that) is a trade that... I think both sides say no to? The Yankees need pitching, not a $30m rental outfielder. I just tossed that thing aside without getting past the first paragraph. With the winter meetings weeks away, the baseball desert stretches off into the distance. But pulling half-a$$ed trades out of a hat isn't going to slake anyone's thirst.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 14, 2019 11:03:09 GMT -5
Not always. We got Tony Armas Jr for Mike Stanley, then promptly outbid NY for Pedro with Pavano and...you guessed it, Tony Armas Jr. What baseball player is known for 4 body parts? Toe Knee Arm Ass. What baseball player is known for 5 body parts? Toe Knee Arm Ass Junior. Terrible joke I heard in the Fenway bleachers as a teenager. Always stuck with me, not the least because one of our crew kept asking "What's the junior?" 🤣🤣🤣 That’s exactly my question...what IS the “junior”?
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