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2019-20 National Outlet Rankings
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 19, 2019 13:55:25 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline added in Liu to the Red Sox rankings at #16: Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Splitter: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45 Liu showed promise as a high school pitcher in Taiwan, but overuse wore him down and led him to take a two-year break from the mound. A two-way star, he played shortstop at Culture University before resuming pitching in 2019. Liu hit 98 mph with his fastball in September, led the Chinese Taipei squad to its first Asian Baseball Championship title since 2011 while claiming MVP honors at the tournament in October, then signed with the Red Sox for $750,000 in November. Liu can overpower hitters with his four-seam fastball and his slider. His heater sits at 92-96 mph and his slider parks at 86-88. He uses a splitter as his third pitch, and he also may work on a curveball to give him a softer option. Though Liu is on the small side for a pitcher, Boston thinks he can hold up as a starter. The athleticism that made him a prospect as a switch-hitting shortstop translates to the mound, allowing him to produce quality stuff without much effort in his delivery. He repeats his mechanics well, which could translate into solid command. I've always loved just how little their "Overall" grade matched up with the individual tool grades
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 19, 2019 13:58:12 GMT -5
Ranking on the blind, fun stuff but what can you do ? I wonder if the MLB scouting grades align with the Sox internal scouting grades. They are pretty impressive for a 20 year old that didn't pitch for two years.
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Post by texs31 on Nov 19, 2019 14:11:45 GMT -5
Other National Outlets (BA, FG and BP) add a rating of variance but MLB doesn't. I think Callis has explained this where the tools are more "best case" where the overall grade factors in the likelihood of reaching their overall ceiling? It's something like that.
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Post by borisman on Nov 19, 2019 14:16:17 GMT -5
In case folks were confused like me, I think the 16 lists are that site's 16 staffers' lists. I thought it was supposed to be an aggregate and was very confused. I think people are going to sleep on Mata because of his struggles after being promoted to AA. That is silly if true. He'll still be 20 when the season starts as well. Are they overlooking that fact or just waiting for better production in AA in 2020? They will have to come up with some kind of excuse mid-season as to why he didn't get even one vote.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 19, 2019 14:24:09 GMT -5
In case folks were confused like me, I think the 16 lists are that site's 16 staffers' lists. I thought it was supposed to be an aggregate and was very confused. I think people are going to sleep on Mata because of his struggles after being promoted to AA. That is silly if true. He'll still be 20 when the season starts as well. Are they overlooking that fact or just waiting for better production in AA in 2020? They will have to come up with some kind of excuse mid-season as to why he didn't get even one vote. Yeah, you don't even have to dig too hard to see that his K% in AA actually improved slightly (25.2% up from 24.1% at Salem), although his BB% also rose (10.3% up from 8.3%) but didn't resemble his 2017 struggles. The biggest culprits for his AA struggles (i.e., high ERA) are mainly the .340 BABIP (despite a GB% still above 50%) and a 15.0% HR/FB rate. His xFIP, which regresses that HR/FB, was virtually the same across the two levels: 3.23 in Salem, 3.27 in Portland.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 19, 2019 14:28:57 GMT -5
So it's kind of a silly methodology. If you rank 1-100 and then compile all 172 people who get at least one mention, then inevitably you're going to get a couple guys who just got ranked in the Top 100 by one person for whom that is an opinion far outside of the consensus. So, for example, Mason Martin was ranked #100 by one person. He was a 20 year old 1B-only who had a very nice year in the SAL but that was after spending most of the previous year in the FSL for reasons that I can't totally understand. This is an educated guess, but as a conservative estimate that at least 13 of the 16 staffers would have Mata rated higher than Martin. MLB Pipeline has him 19th in the Pirates system. And, don't get me wrong, I'm totally okay with one guy sticking his neck out and being "yeah, this guy is actually good," I'm not looking for groupthink. But that means he's in Scott Green's Top 100, not necessarily the site's consensus Top 172.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 4, 2019 12:47:47 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel
12:00 We're in list season, so hit the new PROSPECTS dropdown at the top of the page to see the latest. Red Sox should be out tomorrow, Twins early next week while we're all in San Diego for the Winter Meetings. We'll be doing the WSH/HOU/STL/MIA spring training pod next.
12:03 and I think you guys will find some interesting sleepers and an overarching development in the BOS list tomorrow
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 4, 2019 13:11:02 GMT -5
I bet overarching development is the IFA pipeline.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 4, 2019 21:53:53 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel 12:00 We're in list season, so hit the new PROSPECTS dropdown at the top of the page to see the latest. Red Sox should be out tomorrow, Twins early next week while we're all in San Diego for the Winter Meetings. We'll be doing the WSH/HOU/STL/MIA spring training pod next. 12:03 and I think you guys will find some interesting sleepers and an overarching development in the BOS list tomorrow Later on, he says a potential to jump up in the rankings is part of the overarching development. Honestly, this won't be anywhere near the best collection of prospects the Sox have had in my 10 or so years of following, but I think the combination of potential for an exponential upward trend in the system and me just loving the work the Fangraphs prospect guys do makes this the most excited I've ever been for a prospects list to come out.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 5, 2019 9:23:37 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 5, 2019 10:59:34 GMT -5
Fangraph's rankings:
1. Triston Casas 2. Bryan Mata 3. Bobby Dalbec 4. Noah Song 5. Gilberto Jimenez 6. Matthew Lugo 7. Cameron Cannon 8. Tanner Houck 9. Jarren Duran 10. Thad Ward 11. Brayan Bello 12. Chih-Jung Liu 13. Nick Decker 14. Jay Groome 15. Antoni Flores 16. Brainer Bonaci 17. Bryan Gonzalez 18. Brandon Howlett 19. C.J. Chatham 20. Chris Murphy 21. Eduardo Lopez 22. Marcus Wilson 23. Juan Chacon 24. Andrew Politi 25. Durbin Feltman 26. Ryan Zeferjahn 27. Naysbel Marcano 28. Aldo Ramirez 29. Albert Feliz 30. Jorge Rodriguez 31. Yoan Aybar 32. Eduardo Vaughan 33. Luis Perales
Non-ranked prospects:
Young Sleepers Ceddanne Rafaela, SS Darel Belen, RF Ricardo Cubillan, SS Wilkelman Gonzalez, RHP Kelvin Diaz, CF Jhostynxon Garcia, RF
Backspin Fastballs (arm slot/spin deception prospects) Brock Bell, RHP Nixson Munoz, RHP Brendan Nail, LHP Eduard Bazardo, RHP Yusniel Padron-Artilles, RHP
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 5, 2019 12:35:21 GMT -5
Fangraph's rankings: 1. Triston Casas 2. Bryan Mata 3. Bobby Dalbec 4. Noah Song 5. Gilberto Jimenez 6. Matthew Lugo 7. Cameron Cannon 8. Tanner Houck 9. Jarren Duran 10. Thad Ward 11. Brayan Bello 12. Chih-Jung Liu 13. Nick Decker 14. Jay Groome 15. Antoni Flores 16. Brainer Bonaci 17. Bryan Gonzalez 18. Brandon Howlett 19. C.J. Chatham 20. Chris Murphy 21. Eduardo Lopez 22. Marcus Wilson 23. Juan Chacon 24. Andrew Politi 25. Durbin Feltman 26. Ryan Zeferjahn 27. Naysbel Marcano 28. Aldo Ramirez 29. Albert Feliz 30. Jorge Rodriguez 31. Yoan Aybar 32. Eduardo Vaughan 33. Luis Perales Non-ranked prospects: Young Sleepers Ceddanne Rafaela, SS Darel Belen, RF Ricardo Cubillan, SS Wilkelman Gonzalez, RHP Kelvin Diaz, CF Jhostynxon Garcia, RF Backspin Fastballs (arm slot/spin deception prospects) Brock Bell, RHP Nixson Munoz, RHP Brendan Nail, LHP Eduard Bazardo, RHP Yusniel Padron-Artilles, RHP Good rankings and a lot of really cool info, but a lot of their ETA's are kind of weird. Casas 2023 but Gilberto 2022 Song 2021 Duran 2022 Jay Groome 2021 (?) I mean, they know better than me, but all of those seem pretty inexplicable.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 5, 2019 13:13:12 GMT -5
Yeah, they're pumping out a lot of content and coverage across the league. I honestly tend to give them a little leeway and don't pay too much attention to the fine details like ETA. I'm pretty sure the Casas writeup for example is the same as last year's (doesn't refer at all to his performance in Greenville and makes predictions about 2019).
Its a fun list, and I appreciate the coverage....but I do think they're clearly and perhaps inaccurately weighting upside over floor with the amount of DSL/GCL guys that are ranked. For example, I sincerely doubt that Albert Feliz (#29) turns into anything more than Josh Ockimey (unranked without even a mention). That said, I'm not mad at the approach. I'd certainly rather dream on and read about Feliz than Ockimey at this point given Ockimey's much tighter range of outcomes. Might as well highlight the upside guys and potentially hit on a few even if this list doesn't age particularly well in the #15-30 range.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 5, 2019 13:26:26 GMT -5
Yeah, they're pumping out a lot of content and coverage across the league. I honestly tend to give them a little leeway and don't pay too much attention to the fine details like ETA. I'm pretty sure the Casas writeup for example is the same as last year's (doesn't refer at all to his performance in Greenville and makes predictions about 2019). Its a fun list, and I appreciate the coverage....but I do think they're clearly and perhaps inaccurately weighting upside over floor with the amount of DSL/GCL guys that are ranked. For example, I sincerely doubt that Albert Feliz (#29) turns into anything more than Josh Ockimey (unranked without even a mention). That said, I'm not mad at the approach. I'd certainly rather dream on and read about Feliz than Ockimey at this point given Ockimey's much tighter range of outcomes. Might as well highlight the upside guys and potentially hit on a few even if this list doesn't age particularly well in the #15-30 range. Oh agreed, Eric and Kiley are two of the best in the business and I'm not going to question them as analysts because of some weird ETA timeframes (they do explain the Groome one a bit). I understand and agree with the logic of putting someone like Feliz ahead of Ockimey though, weighing upside more heavily as you said. If you're ultimately confident that Ockimey is NOT going to ever really contribute at the big league level, which they seem to be, and think that there's even a marginal chance Feliz is a legitimate contributor, you go with that.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 5, 2019 13:31:01 GMT -5
As a comparison, BP is saying late 23 on Casas. IIRC, FG leans more towards when they are likely to establish vs when they'll first see action.
How these sites express the details can often be so different when compared to others it makes it challenging to aggregate the info (grades, dates, etc). So while BA and MLB assume (I believe) that power is separate from hitting, FG (bc they separate Raw from Game) will combine the tools (Hit and Raw) to get Game. That's why you see Dalbec and Flores having the same Future Game Power. I'll bet some money they'll be the only site that will show them projecting the same future power grades.
EDIT - Though Song is a bit of a curveball.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2019 13:54:45 GMT -5
"Casas’ calling card is his bat and there’s potential for a 60 hit, 70 game power, 80 raw power kind of package."
Yikes!
Isn't that what Papi turned out to be pretty much?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 11, 2019 16:04:30 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Dec 11, 2019 16:08:41 GMT -5
I noticed that the other day and was surprised to see EV data even for the DSL guys. Not sure if we should totally trust that data but if so, Albert Feliz is only behind Dalbec among the ranked prospects with regard to avg EV.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 11, 2019 19:49:41 GMT -5
Actually, some surprises there for me, especially near the top:
Dalbec 92 Feliz 91 Wilson 90 Duran 89 Bonachi 88 Marcano 88
I'm guessing that Duran might have been leading when called up to AA and he stopped spraying hard liners all over the place.
Somewhat troubling: Lugo (80) is at the bottom with Jiminez (83) next.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 12, 2019 9:57:26 GMT -5
Jimenez doesn't surprise me - He doesn't really drive the ball yet, not in the way the more advanced hitters do. Also remember that he just started switch hitting when he was signed, so he's really just learning his left-handed swing mechanics (you'd never be able to tell, though - when I saw him in spring training I had to ask Ian what his natural side was). He has a great combination of hand-eye coordination and natural athletic tools, though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2019 10:29:53 GMT -5
Yeah I'd have guessed Jimenez was low on that list. And he and Lugo are both so young you'd assume they'll add strength and improve technique.
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Post by mwgray on Dec 12, 2019 17:27:57 GMT -5
Crazy how Chad De La Guerra gets no love. He has been an average or above average hitting middle infielder since entering the system albeit injury prone, and a little old/slow to progress the system. I honestly think he should get some consideration for the 2B job, and/or backup middle infield.
Same for Ockimey, he should get some love on these lists, and potential a look at 1B. He has been good hitter at every stage of the minor. The obvious knock on him is defense, but at 1B,DH, and possibly left at Fenway, he has the potential to be effective.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 12, 2019 20:16:46 GMT -5
Ockimey has a very limited niche he could fill given the mediocre defensive profile and his catastrophic platoon splits. There is no other word for it: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ockime000jos&type=bgl&year=2019That plays a very large role in how he's seen on this site and others. I have no doubt he could do damage to righthanders. The questions have to do with what he might cost you on the field and how constrained a team would be if they were ever forced to play him against lefties. He is that bad against them.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 12, 2019 21:52:19 GMT -5
Where do people think Arauz would slot in? Early 20’s?
If he sticks in the system I’d imagine he would technically graduate and not be a prospect but the age advancement/profile seems interesting
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 12, 2019 22:10:58 GMT -5
I think there's a fair case he'd belong in the Top 20. He's only two years older than Flores and Rafaela, a year younger than Cannon, and I don't think it's crazy to think he's still got some upside.
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