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Eduardo Rodriguez, now and going forward
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 25, 2019 17:51:36 GMT -5
Coming off a stellar year, and under only contract for one more cheap season, now is the offseason to make a decision on his future. Personally, giving him a 5yr/$100+million contract scares the crap out of me. If Bloom can get a haul for him, I'd love to see him make the move.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 25, 2019 18:05:16 GMT -5
I don't see how given our pitching situation it makes sense to trade him. He's under contract for 9.5M in 2020 and a 4th arbitration year in 2021. He probably has similar trade value as Betts and Benintendi do right now. Under normal circumstances I'd have no problem going 5/90 and seeing if he would take the security (he's said he's open to an extension), but that would completely balloon his AAV and that's an issue at the moment.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 25, 2019 18:07:54 GMT -5
He has 2 more years? I thought he only had 1 when I was looking at Spotrac, that definitely changes things.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 25, 2019 18:15:46 GMT -5
He was a Super 2, thus 4 years of arbitration. He will only have 5 years, 130 days of service time next offseason.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 25, 2019 18:50:30 GMT -5
He recently announced that he wants to spend the rest of his career with the Red Sox, so that's good news. But I wouldn't expect an extension unless it's signed after the start of the season so it doesn't kick in until next year.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Nov 25, 2019 20:13:20 GMT -5
He recently announced that he wants to spend the rest of his career with the Red Sox, so that's good news. But I wouldn't expect an extension unless it's signed after the start of the season so it doesn't kick in until next year.
I never really put much weight into these "announcements".
They're good PR, nothing more.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Nov 25, 2019 20:52:18 GMT -5
He recently announced that he wants to spend the rest of his career with the Red Sox, so that's good news. But I wouldn't expect an extension unless it's signed after the start of the season so it doesn't kick in until next year. I'm pretty sure that rule in the CBA doesn't exist anymore. They don't need to wait until the season starts. They just have to do it after his salary is announced for 2020 or they have to the announce the extension with the 2021- whatever seasons in the language of the contract. It's what happened with Xander. His AAV was 12 million in 2019. His new deal has his AAV at 20 million from the 2020-2026 years (with a opt included after 2023). Add- Xander's new deal was announced after opening day, but the timing doesn't matter anymore. |
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,757
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Post by mobaz on Nov 26, 2019 8:12:48 GMT -5
4 yrs 70 million Jon Lester offer contract. Vesting 5th yr $25m. Probably not enough.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 26, 2019 8:44:19 GMT -5
6 years $100M, $5m, $7m, $22m, $22m, $22m, $22m
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Post by dirtywater43 on Nov 26, 2019 23:05:02 GMT -5
I feel like this should have been a thread about Benintendi. A player that took a major step backwards in his overall game in every way last season. He's easily the player that's most replaceable out of this core group.
He's not versatile. He's a LF only because he doesn't have the range for CF anymore and he has never played a inning in RF before. His sprint speed plummeted last year. He hit 13 homeruns in the year of the homeruns. You really have to question what his power potential is and where it's going to be capped at this point. Is the most homeruns he'll ever hit is 20 like in 2017?
Ohh and his defense has been below average in LF too the past 2 years. -3 DRS between both seasons.
I would shop him around for young pitching and search for replacement outfielders. Made a post about Will Myers, like he's a player who's a smidge worse, but he can easily come close to replacing Benintendi. That's just one example of a player that I'm talking about replacing Benintendi if you dealt him away. You could also move a Chavis to LF too permanently. Basically anyone can play in LF Fenway half the time. A million options can be used there.
Wouldn't deal him just to deal him, because he still has value with his hit and on base tools, but the my point still stands. He's already in arbitration and he's about to be getting more expensive too. If some other team over values him because of his age and needs a young outfielder with value, then get the most you can for Benny.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 27, 2019 2:07:10 GMT -5
I feel like this should have been a thread about Benintendi. A player that took a major step backwards in his overall game in every way last season. He's easily the player that's most replaceable out of this core group. He's not versatile. He's a LF only because he doesn't have the range for CF anymore and he has never played a inning in RF before. His sprint speed plummeted last year. He hit 13 homeruns in the year of the homeruns. You really have to question what his power potential is and where it's going to be capped at this point. Is the most the most homeruns he'll hit is 20 like in 2017? Ohh and his defense has been below average in LF too the past 2 years. -3 DRS between both seasons. I would shop him around for young pitching and search for replacement outfielders. Made a post about Will Myers, like he's a player who's a smidge worse, but he can easily come close to replacing Benintendi. That's just one example of a player that I'm talking abour replacing Benintendi if you dealt him away. You could also move a Chavis to LF too permanently. Basically anyone can play in LF Fenway half the time. A million options can be used there. Wouldn't deal him just to deal him, because he still has value with his hit and on base tools, but the my point still stands. He's already in arbitration and he's about to be getting more expensive too. If some other team over values him because of his age and needs a young outfielder with value, then get the most you can for Benny. Benny went from 3.9 bWAR at age 23 in his second year, to 1.7 at age 24 . I'm looking for comps (within 0.3 WAR both years, no rookie or defense-heavy seasons at 23, from 1983 on):
Rondell White is almost perfect. He went from 3.8 to 1.6. He had 4.8 the next year and was on pace for 5.8 after that when he got hurt in late July and was never the same player.
Xander just misses, going from 3.8 to 2.2 at the same ages (with an extra year of experience), then 3.8, 5.2.
That's really about it. I think selling as low as possible on him is not a good idea.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Nov 27, 2019 2:22:23 GMT -5
I feel like this should have been a thread about Benintendi. A player that took a major step backwards in his overall game in every way last season. He's easily the player that's most replaceable out of this core group. He's not versatile. He's a LF only because he doesn't have the range for CF anymore and he has never played a inning in RF before. His sprint speed plummeted last year. He hit 13 homeruns in the year of the homeruns. You really have to question what his power potential is and where it's going to be capped at this point. Is the most the most homeruns he'll hit is 20 like in 2017? Ohh and his defense has been below average in LF too the past 2 years. -3 DRS between both seasons. I would shop him around for young pitching and search for replacement outfielders. Made a post about Will Myers, like he's a player who's a smidge worse, but he can easily come close to replacing Benintendi. That's just one example of a player that I'm talking abour replacing Benintendi if you dealt him away. You could also move a Chavis to LF too permanently. Basically anyone can play in LF Fenway half the time. A million options can be used there. Wouldn't deal him just to deal him, because he still has value with his hit and on base tools, but the my point still stands. He's already in arbitration and he's about to be getting more expensive too. If some other team over values him because of his age and needs a young outfielder with value, then get the most you can for Benny. Benny went from 3.9 bWAR at age 23 in his second year, to 1.7 at age 24 . I'm looking for comps (within 0.3 WAR both years, no rookie or defense-heavy seasons at 23, from 1983 on):
Rondell White is almost perfect. He went from 3.8 to 1.6. He had 4.8 the next year and was on pace for 5.8 after that when he got hurt in late July and was never the same player.
Xander just misses, going from 3.8 to 2.2 at the same ages (with an extra year of experience), then 3.8, 5.2.
That's really about it. I think selling as low as possible on him is not a good idea.
If you don't get proper value for him, you don't deal him. Teams dealing for him should be dealing him in mind that they're giving up really valuable and more controllable pieces for a young outfielder with 3 years of control. This is a opportunity more to cash in on a player who's declining defensively and speed wise, who also has no versatility beyond the one position he plays (he's not good at this position anymore). He could bounce back and give the Sox 3 very valuable years, or he could stall some more and just be the same 1.5-3 WAR player that whole time. Valuable, not fantastic while getting more expensive. Add- To your comps, I seriously question Benny's ability to reach a 5 WAR season. Xander in comparison reached that ceiling when he was able to hit over 30 homeruns in one season. Xander was always a dude that looked like he could hit that many with a change of approach. Due to Benny's size, I don't see that. Benny in comparison looks like a guy who can hit 10-20 homeruns a season and he is that kind of player right now. That with the declining speed and defense has me thinking about dangling him. |
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Post by dirtywater43 on Nov 27, 2019 6:48:45 GMT -5
Last post about dealing away a fan favorite like Benny, but Chaim Bloom was a part of the Rays when they dealt away a soon to be declining 29 year old Chris Archer who had 3 years of control left (sound familiar?). He got full price of admission for that deal. That's the kind of magic I would hope to see in a deal for Benintendi if it were to happen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2019 8:50:00 GMT -5
I'd hate to see them trade away good old Benny Rodriguez.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 27, 2019 9:21:16 GMT -5
I'd hate to see them trade away good old Benny Rodriguez. Agreed, selling low on The Jet would be foolish. Unless it's to the Dodgers, I suppsoe that's just fate. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2019 12:11:12 GMT -5
Last post about dealing away a fan favorite like Benny, but Chaim Bloom was a part of the Rays when they dealt away a soon to be declining 29 year old Chris Archer who had 3 years of control left (sound familiar?). He got full price of admission for that deal. That's the kind of magic I would hope to see in a deal for Benintendi if it were to happen. Proposing that Bloom can repeat the Archer trade is a lot like proposing that the Red Sox can draft the next Mookie Betts in the fifth round that year. I'd hate to see them trade away good old Benny Rodriguez. Agreed, selling low on The Jet would be foolish. Unless it's to the Dodgers, I suppsoe that's just fate. Speed declines with age, but Benny's fell off way more than you would expect this year. The power too; which collapsed in a really extreme way considering the environment. He also had a huge spike in his swinging strike rate when contact had always been a strength for him... if he was like 2018 but just 5% worse in every way, I'd kinda look at him like someone who's reached a plateau in his development, but the falloff is was sharp enough to make me think there was something specifically wrong. A nagging injury, some kind of World Series hangover where he wasn't in the right shape coming into the year, something in his personal life... no idea, but I definitely wouldn't sell him now. Way too much potential for him to be next year's Josh Bell. |
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Post by michael on Nov 27, 2019 18:21:04 GMT -5
I'd hate to see them trade away good old Benny Rodriguez. Or Eddie Benintendi. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 28, 2019 12:45:01 GMT -5
I think Erod could very well improve on all his numbers this year but still not match his 19-6 record. He is the only starter that doesn't have questions looming over his head and they should think about moving him? I'm not on board with that. I am on board with him being close to an ace.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 30, 2019 14:04:11 GMT -5
I think Erod could very well improve on all his numbers this year but still not match his 19-6 record. He is the only starter that doesn't have questions looming over his head and they should think about moving him? I'm not on board with that. I am on board with him being close to an ace. Agreed. He’s an extension candidate, certainly not a trade chip. While not an original signee, he’s gone from AA to MLB with the team, and I think he qualifies as a development success, since a big part of his success has been the changes implemented on his arrival in Portland. After some lingering health issues, he’s shown a very steady incremental improvement along the lines of Bogey. Last year reminds me a lot of Bogey’s 2018: starting to put it all together and refine it. While there were no particularly remarkable changes in Rodriguez’s deeper data last year, he did evolve over the course of the season, and improved his sequencing and location choices. He’s been dropping his LD rate bit by bit, and his GB rate (I think driven by CH usage/location) jumped last year. He limits hard contact. His O-sw% has been creeping up, and Z-sw% creeping down. All very good signs. After his first few rough starts, he was excellent. I think there’s very clearly another level, and just like Bogey in ‘19 vs ‘18, I think Rodriguez is primed to take another significant step. He might not win 19 games (with a .760 WP) again, but I can certainly see another 200-210 IP, low-3 or even sub-3 ERA, a drop in WHIP close to 1.0, and 10-10.5 K/9. Last year he was a legit 2 and I still think he’s destined to be a 1a or even a true 1. He’s just now entering his historical pitching prime. He’s absolutely a guy you lock up for 6 more years, especially when it could easily come at a moderate discount akin to Bogey’s deal (and arguably now a big discount). |
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 3, 2019 17:13:55 GMT -5
I think Erod could very well improve on all his numbers this year but still not match his 19-6 record. He is the only starter that doesn't have questions looming over his head and they should think about moving him? I'm not on board with that. I am on board with him being close to an ace. Agreed. He’s an extension candidate, certainly not a trade chip. While not an original signee, he’s gone from AA to MLB with the team, and I think he qualifies as a development success, since a big part of his success has been the changes implemented on his arrival in Portland. After some lingering health issues, he’s shown a very steady incremental improvement along the lines of Bogey. Last year reminds me a lot of Bogey’s 2018: starting to put it all together and refine it. While there were no particularly remarkable changes in Rodriguez’s deeper data last year, he did evolve over the course of the season, and improved his sequencing and location choices. He’s been dropping his LD rate bit by bit, and his GB rate (I think driven by CH usage/location) jumped last year. He limits hard contact. His O-sw% has been creeping up, and Z-sw% creeping down. All very good signs. After his first few rough starts, he was excellent. I think there’s very clearly another level, and just like Bogey in ‘19 vs ‘18, I think Rodriguez is primed to take another significant step. He might not win 19 games (with a .760 WP) again, but I can certainly see another 200-210 IP, low-3 or even sub-3 ERA, a drop in WHIP close to 1.0, and 10-10.5 K/9. Last year he was a legit 2 and I still think he’s destined to be a 1a or even a true 1. He’s just now entering his historical pitching prime. He’s absolutely a guy you lock up for 6 more years, especially when it could easily come at a moderate discount akin to Bogey’s deal (and arguably now a big discount). Yeah what he said, LOL. A much more refined and researched scouting report on what the future for ERod could look like. Can't forget either that last year was his 1st with his repaired knee. We have no way of knowing how much that was holding him back. Based on all the peripherals he could be the perfect candidate to take that next step. Since I am a bit of a neophyte I will just say his whip does bother me a bit, I want think is feasible is 3.2 era with 1.1 whip. |
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Post by blumj on Dec 4, 2019 9:25:25 GMT -5
I'd hate to see them trade away good old Benny Rodriguez. Agreed, selling low on The Jet would be foolish. Unless it's to the Dodgers, I suppsoe that's just fate. Can't believe we're still waiting for someone with musical talent to create a Benintendi and the Betts parody song, they're too weird and too wonderful. |
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Post by nesportfan on Dec 4, 2019 10:42:15 GMT -5
6 years $100M, $5m, $7m, $22m, $22m, $22m, $22m Is that possible? Can they lower his salary that much for the next 2 years? If so that would help the team’s salary cap issues wouldn’t it? Plus, if he continues to pitch like he did last year, a $22m pitcher of that caliber, 3,4,5 & 6 years from now, would probably be a bargain the way things are going. $100m of security is a lot to turn down if offered. Seems interesting if possible. |
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Post by fenwaydouble on Dec 4, 2019 10:48:55 GMT -5
6 years $100M, $5m, $7m, $22m, $22m, $22m, $22m Is that possible? Can they lower his salary that much for the next 2 years? If so that would help the team’s salary cap issues wouldn’t it? Plus, if he continues to pitch like he did last year, a $22m pitcher of that caliber, 3,4,5 & 6 years from now, would probably be a bargain the way things are going. $100m of security is a lot to turn down if offered. Seems interesting if possible. I believe the AAV is what counts against the cap, so this would actual hurt the team's chances of getting under the tax this year. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 4, 2019 11:21:18 GMT -5
I think Erod could very well improve on all his numbers this year but still not match his 19-6 record. He is the only starter that doesn't have questions looming over his head and they should think about moving him? I'm not on board with that. I am on board with him being close to an ace. Agreed. He’s an extension candidate, certainly not a trade chip. While not an original signee, he’s gone from AA to MLB with the team, and I think he qualifies as a development success, since a big part of his success has been the changes implemented on his arrival in Portland. After some lingering health issues, he’s shown a very steady incremental improvement along the lines of Bogey. Last year reminds me a lot of Bogey’s 2018: starting to put it all together and refine it. While there were no particularly remarkable changes in Rodriguez’s deeper data last year, he did evolve over the course of the season, and improved his sequencing and location choices. He’s been dropping his LD rate bit by bit, and his GB rate (I think driven by CH usage/location) jumped last year. He limits hard contact. His O-sw% has been creeping up, and Z-sw% creeping down. All very good signs. After his first few rough starts, he was excellent. I think there’s very clearly another level, and just like Bogey in ‘19 vs ‘18, I think Rodriguez is primed to take another significant step. He might not win 19 games (with a .760 WP) again, but I can certainly see another 200-210 IP, low-3 or even sub-3 ERA, a drop in WHIP close to 1.0, and 10-10.5 K/9. Last year he was a legit 2 and I still think he’s destined to be a 1a or even a true 1. He’s just now entering his historical pitching prime. He’s absolutely a guy you lock up for 6 more years, especially when it could easily come at a moderate discount akin to Bogey’s deal (and arguably now a big discount). I've always been and still am an Eduardo fan, but I have to disagree with this. He's been remarkably consistent: 2017: 25.8 K% 8.6 BB% 2018: 26.4 K% 8.1 BB% 2019: 24.8 K% 8.7 BB% The jump in GB rate is interesting, and you're right, the groundball rate on his changeup specifically spiked all the way up to a very nice 66.9%. The plate discipline stuff... I'm pretty skeptical that a couple points of O-swing% means anything. And honestly, a breakout based on spotting the changeup really well isn't necessarily a breakout I trust that much. It's not like when James Paxton changed his delivery and got three extra tics on the gun AND improved command. It's a guy who might not spot his changeup quite so well next year. |
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Post by telson13 on Dec 12, 2019 20:22:57 GMT -5
Agreed. He’s an extension candidate, certainly not a trade chip. While not an original signee, he’s gone from AA to MLB with the team, and I think he qualifies as a development success, since a big part of his success has been the changes implemented on his arrival in Portland. After some lingering health issues, he’s shown a very steady incremental improvement along the lines of Bogey. Last year reminds me a lot of Bogey’s 2018: starting to put it all together and refine it. While there were no particularly remarkable changes in Rodriguez’s deeper data last year, he did evolve over the course of the season, and improved his sequencing and location choices. He’s been dropping his LD rate bit by bit, and his GB rate (I think driven by CH usage/location) jumped last year. He limits hard contact. His O-sw% has been creeping up, and Z-sw% creeping down. All very good signs. After his first few rough starts, he was excellent. I think there’s very clearly another level, and just like Bogey in ‘19 vs ‘18, I think Rodriguez is primed to take another significant step. He might not win 19 games (with a .760 WP) again, but I can certainly see another 200-210 IP, low-3 or even sub-3 ERA, a drop in WHIP close to 1.0, and 10-10.5 K/9. Last year he was a legit 2 and I still think he’s destined to be a 1a or even a true 1. He’s just now entering his historical pitching prime. He’s absolutely a guy you lock up for 6 more years, especially when it could easily come at a moderate discount akin to Bogey’s deal (and arguably now a big discount). I've always been and still am an Eduardo fan, but I have to disagree with this. He's been remarkably consistent: 2017: 25.8 K% 8.6 BB% 2018: 26.4 K% 8.1 BB% 2019: 24.8 K% 8.7 BB% The jump in GB rate is interesting, and you're right, the groundball rate on his changeup specifically spiked all the way up to a very nice 66.9%. The plate discipline stuff... I'm pretty skeptical that a couple points of O-swing% means anything. And honestly, a breakout based on spotting the changeup really well isn't necessarily a breakout I trust that much. It's not like when James Paxton changed his delivery and got three extra tics on the gun AND improved command. It's a guy who might not spot his changeup quite so well next year. Well, I tried to make the point that there’s been no sea change. You can look at endpoints like K and BB rates (and lots else, as well), and there’s not a whole lot of difference. He *has* been very consistent. But my point is that when you look at underlying trends, there are good signs. His O-swing has steadily increased 1-2% per year (5% in his career) and contact% is down 5% in his career. His SwStr% has been pretty flat for 3 years, but he had a clear drop on zone% over his career...meaning he’s gradually fooling guys better and staying off the plate. Again, Bogey’s breakout had nothing to do with a real LA or EV increase...he just picked the right pitches to swing at, the right way. I see ERod as learning to do the pitching equivalent, getting the hitters to regress to swinging the wrong way at the wrong pitches. If one focused on EV and LA (or direction/contact quality comparing his early and recent seasons), there’s not much difference for Bogey either. For me the devil’s in the details. I agree that there’s not a *clear* sign Rodriguez breaks out, but I’m going rosy in my outlook because I like some of the deeper metrics and the trend of progressive improvement of different parts of his game. |
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