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Post by dmaineah on Dec 7, 2019 8:16:52 GMT -5
Mookie Betts & David Price to the Angels for Jo Adell
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Dec 7, 2019 17:26:16 GMT -5
We probably wouldn't get Adell for Betts straight up, let alone with Price attached.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 7, 2019 19:55:56 GMT -5
We probably wouldn't get Adell for Betts straight up, let alone with Price attached. You absolutely would not get Adel for 1 year of Betts straight up but, with 3 years of Price for a SP starved team that has Trout, I think this works |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 7, 2019 20:17:45 GMT -5
We probably wouldn't get Adell for Betts straight up, let alone with Price attached. You absolutely would not get Adel for 1 year of Betts straight up but, with 3 years of Price for a SP starved team that has Trout, I think this works David Price has had 2 injury interrupted seasons in the past 3 years and has not pitched like an ace for a long time. Not to mention he makes an obscene amount of money. Getting Price is not going to make the Angels want to give up Adell for Betts, risk losing him and then have Price's decline while Adell is blossoming. |
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 8, 2019 9:56:47 GMT -5
You absolutely would not get Adel for 1 year of Betts straight up but, with 3 years of Price for a SP starved team that has Trout, I think this works David Price has had 2 injury interrupted seasons in the past 3 years and has not pitched like an ace for a long time. Not to mention he makes an obscene amount of money. Getting Price is not going to make the Angels want to give up Adell for Betts, risk losing him and then have Price's decline while Adell is blossoming. “Were Price a free agent this winter, he'd probably be in the Bumgarner/Ryu camp, a clear notch below Cole and Strasburg, but still desirable. It's hard to say what he'd earn, but even with his injury concerns, an AAV of $18 million feels like the floor. The fact that he's only signed for three more years maybe bumps that hypothetical number to $20 million annually. If the Red Sox ate $36 million, could they find a market for Price at three years and $60 million? It doesn't sound so crazy to me, especially once you stop fixating on the negatives.” So added 1 year of Betts & asking them to pay $25m per year for Price for Adell seems right |
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Post by swingingbunt on Dec 8, 2019 14:23:34 GMT -5
It's not infallible of course, but I would recommend going to baseballtradevalues.com to see if any trade idea is within the realm of possibility. According to that site Betts is worth +50, Price is worth -60, and Adell is worth +96.4.
So to make your trade fair, the Sox would have to come up with over +100 points of value.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2019 14:31:29 GMT -5
It's not infallible of course, but I would recommend going to baseballtradevalues.com to see if any trade idea is within the realm of possibility. According to that site Betts is worth +50, Price is worth -60, and Adell is worth +96.4. So to make your trade fair, the Sox would have to come up with over +100 points of value. To be fair, Price being worth -60 is ridiculously stupid. He'd be worth more than 0 if you paid $60 million of the $96 million he has left. $1M is worth 1.0 on that site. Does anyone really think that Price on a 3/$36M contract has zero excess value and that no team would offer anything for him at that price? |
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Post by swingingbunt on Dec 8, 2019 14:57:16 GMT -5
It's not infallible of course, but I would recommend going to baseballtradevalues.com to see if any trade idea is within the realm of possibility. According to that site Betts is worth +50, Price is worth -60, and Adell is worth +96.4. So to make your trade fair, the Sox would have to come up with over +100 points of value. To be fair, Price being worth -60 is ridiculously stupid. He'd be worth more than 0 if you paid $60 million of the $96 million he has left. $1M is worth 1.0 on that site. Does anyone really think that Price on a 3/$36M contract has zero excess value and that no team would offer anything for him at that price? Fair, but don't miss the forest for the trees. Price and his current contract have a lot of negative trade value, and shouldn't be viewed as a positive in a trade within a lot of money going the other way. |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2019 15:09:58 GMT -5
What's interesting/funny is that Machado and Harper are worth the 5th and 6th least in the entire majors according to that site.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2019 16:19:38 GMT -5
Color me confused with those numbers. Plus 50 on Betts isn't crazy, a little aggressive, but not crazy he could easily be worth 8 bwar next year.
But minus 60 on Price? How can you predict Price is worth less than four bwar over the next three years? He was worth 6.3 bwar over the last two years. I think 2 bwar a year is a very fair number. That would leave him at minus 36, with a decent chance he earns that contract if you use the crazy 10 million per bwar number.
The bigger issue is you can't count on him. He could weardown and be injured right when a contending team needs him most. That's the big issue for what he makes.
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Jo Adell
Dec 8, 2019 18:48:00 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by bellhorndingers21 on Dec 8, 2019 18:48:00 GMT -5
Let's say Adell is half the player Mookie is for the first 6 years of his career.
Mookie finishes out this upcoming season with 48 career WAR (going off BBR) and and 62 million in career earnings.
And because Adell is half the player for this example he projects at 24 WAR and 31 million.
Going rate for 1 WAR these days is 8 million? That would put Adells value to the Angels around 150 million after paying him. So I highly doubt the Angels value 1 season of Betts and a declining Price for this surplus value, especially while the Astros and As are still better teams.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2019 19:57:04 GMT -5
Let's say Adell is half the player Mookie is for the first 6 years of his career. Mookie finishes out this upcoming season with 48 career WAR (going off BBR) and and 62 million in career earnings. And because Adell is half the player for this example he projects at 24 WAR and 31 million. Going rate for 1 WAR these days is 8 million? That would put Adells value to the Angels around 150 million after paying him. So I highly doubt the Angels value 1 season of Betts and a declining Price for this surplus value, especially while the Astros and As are still better teams. Benintendi was the #1 ranked prospect in Baseball at one time, he's got just over 8 bwar in three plus years. You can't project numbers that high on average. |
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Jo Adell
Dec 9, 2019 8:05:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 9, 2019 8:05:34 GMT -5
Speaking of Benintendi, I could see this trade proposal having more value/working for both sides if he was in this deal instead of Mookie.
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Jo Adell
Dec 9, 2019 9:23:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 9, 2019 9:23:13 GMT -5
Speaking of Benintendi, I could see this trade proposal having more value/working for both sides if he was in this deal instead of Mookie. Okay. Crazy trade of the day- Sox trade- David Price Andrew Benintendi Bobby Dalbec Angels trade- Jo Adell Brian Goodwin Keynan Middleton Zack Cosart No money exchanged. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 9, 2019 17:37:08 GMT -5
Price for Upton straight up is your realistic starting point, folks.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 9, 2019 18:30:24 GMT -5
Price for Upton straight up is your realistic starting point, folks. I’d rather have Price. |
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Jo Adell
Dec 9, 2019 18:57:25 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 9, 2019 18:57:25 GMT -5
Price for Upton straight up is your realistic starting point, folks. I’d rather have Price. I'd take Upton if it also gets Adell plus more value back for Benintendi and Price. |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2019 20:47:36 GMT -5
Why would the Angels give up Adell in any of these scenarios?
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 9, 2019 20:56:03 GMT -5
Why would the Angels give up Adell in any of these scenarios? Jo Adell is going nowhere. |
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Jo Adell
Dec 9, 2019 21:27:44 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 9, 2019 21:27:44 GMT -5
Benintendi is a young valuable MLB outfielder. Justin Upton's contract is terrible and is an anvil on their payroll. The Angels need starters badly. Worst starter ERA in the league last year. There's many ways to construct a trade like that.
Add- If the Angels land Cole, it's not happening. If they don't, like where else do they turn for a top of the rotation starter?
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Post by swingingbunt on Dec 9, 2019 23:01:43 GMT -5
Price isn't a top of the rotation starter, so they wouldn't turn there if they're looking for one.
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Jo Adell
Dec 9, 2019 23:20:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 9, 2019 23:20:32 GMT -5
Corey Kluber, Noah Syndergaard, and Price are the 3 best options beyond Cole.
None of these 3 pitchers are more available than David Price. They're probably trading Adell in any package considering he's their only good prospect. Time to get creative and get in on Adell, of you can.
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