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Post by jimed14 on Jan 29, 2020 11:30:08 GMT -5
Does anyone think that Jonathan Arauz is going to stick? For me, it seems like a waste of a roster spot since they already have Lin along with Peraza and Chavis. I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens with a possible Mookie trade to flesh this out, but I think a real 4th OF who can play CF/RF or a PH or PR specialist would be a much better use of that last bench spot. I can't imagine that Arauz would get much playing time at all if he does make the team. He's also not very fast so he's not a PR candidate.
Currently the projected roster on this site has Plawecki/Chavis/Lin/Arauz as the bench.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 29, 2020 11:44:56 GMT -5
Does anyone think that Jonathan Arauz is going to stick? For me, it seems like a waste of a roster spot since they already have Lin along with Peraza and Chavis. I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens with a possible Mookie trade to flesh this out, but I think a real 4th OF who can play CF/RF or a PH or PR specialist would be a much better use of that last bench spot. I can't imagine that Arauz would get much playing time at all if he does make the team. He's also not very fast so he's not a PR candidate. Currently the projected roster on this site has Plawecki/Chavis/Lin/Arauz as the bench. Yeah the bench construction at the moment is weird, but you're right that we need the dust to settle if there are upcoming trades. A bench that includes Lin, Arauz, and Peraza (or Chavis, but I give Chavis the edge for regular 2B reps), is not ideal with some positional redundancy. Now granted those guys can play multiple positions, but their best positions are probably similar to each other. I think Arauz is definitely a long shot to stick with the team.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 29, 2020 11:55:14 GMT -5
The only thing the bench is missing is a traditional 4th OF, and you have JD to backup LF/RF (like once a week, maybe), Peraza and Lin have LF/CF experience, and Chavis could possibly see some time in LF if he does fall into the utility role Bloom mentioned when they signed Moreland. So while Arauz might not see a ton of playing time, he's a good experimental use of the 26th spot as a Rule 5 guy good enough to be an occasional contributor, but likely still needs 1 more season at AAA to reach his potential.
Also Peraza stole 21/23/23 bases from 2016-2018, so he's absolutely your PR specialist.
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Post by huskies15 on Jan 29, 2020 12:02:12 GMT -5
While Aruaz might not looking like a person who could stick, the Red Sox have at least bought themselves some time to evaluate an interesting prospect up close. In looking at the AAA depth, it's not like he's really blocking anyone and if he isn't worth keeping he'll get sent back.
Best case: he impresses and you have extra middle infield depth, making a Lin/Peraza expendable. Worst case: doesn't impress and he gets sent back to Houston when his 26th spot on the team is better spent on someone else (after May maybe?)
For me the OF depth is a bigger issue. Finding a RHH who could play CF some days is very needed. Not sure who that could be but people keep saying you can find them on the scrap heap, idk.
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 29, 2020 12:13:08 GMT -5
While Aruaz might not looking like a person who could stick, the Red Sox have at least bought themselves some time to evaluate an interesting prospect up close. In looking at the AAA depth, it's not like he's really blocking anyone and if he isn't worth keeping he'll get sent back. Best case: he impresses and you have extra middle infield depth, making a Lin/Peraza expendable. Worst case: doesn't impress and he gets sent back to Houston when his 26th spot on the team is better spent on someone else (after May maybe?) For me the OF depth is a bigger issue. Finding a RHH who could play CF some days is very needed. Not sure who that could be but people keep saying you can find them on the scrap heap, idk. I wonder if Peraza is that guy. Especially with Moreland back and Chavis likely getting more 2B reps, Peraza is probably a part-time player at both 2B and CF in the current construction of the rester.
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2020 Bench
Jan 29, 2020 13:24:26 GMT -5
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Post by jondrink on Jan 29, 2020 13:24:26 GMT -5
While Aruaz might not looking like a person who could stick, the Red Sox have at least bought themselves some time to evaluate an interesting prospect up close. In looking at the AAA depth, it's not like he's really blocking anyone and if he isn't worth keeping he'll get sent back. Best case: he impresses and you have extra middle infield depth, making a Lin/Peraza expendable. Worst case: doesn't impress and he gets sent back to Houston when his 26th spot on the team is better spent on someone else (after May maybe?) For me the OF depth is a bigger issue. Finding a RHH who could play CF some days is very needed. Not sure who that could be but people keep saying you can find them on the scrap heap, idk.
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Post by jondrink on Jan 29, 2020 13:27:48 GMT -5
Throwing it out there. What about Longhi? 1 1/2 years of AAA plays LF, RF, 1B, DH, PH Hit LH pitching .339 last year with 1.069 OPS Good bench piece.
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Post by mwgray13 on Jan 29, 2020 15:18:07 GMT -5
The only thing the bench is missing is a traditional 4th OF, and you have JD to backup LF/RF (like once a week, maybe), Peraza and Lin have LF/CF experience, and Chavis could possibly see some time in LF if he does fall into the utility role Bloom mentioned when they signed Moreland. So while Arauz might not see a ton of playing time, he's a good experimental use of the 26th spot as a Rule 5 guy good enough to be an occasional contributor, but likely still needs 1 more season at AAA to reach his potential. Also Peraza stole 21/23/23 bases from 2016-2018, so he's absolutely your PR specialist. I like the idea of using the 26th man spot like that for Arauz, but I realistically see that spot going to another reliever. I think the Sox will typically carry 12 position players, and 14 pitchers for most of 2020.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 29, 2020 15:26:24 GMT -5
They league is capping pitching staffs at 13.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 30, 2020 0:52:52 GMT -5
To my surprise after checking the Statcast data ... the first thing about the bench, and it's pretty significant, is that Jose Peraza is your backup SS. Two years ago he was +4 Outs Above Average per 150 games (which is how much he essentially played), and last year he was somewhere in the +3 to +6 range in the equivalent of 25 games. (He was bad three years ago, but defensive performance three years back has almost no predictive value.)
That makes Chavis your virtual backup SS. There may be days you use Lin (or Marco if he's on the roster) at SS because you're facing a RHP with a big platoon split, but I expect them to usually slide Peraza over. I think a big reason they liked him is that he's a legit SS.
Given this, you would usually fill the three non-catcher spots on the bench with:
A) A guy who could play 2B and 3B and SS in an emergency B) A 1B who can play 3B when two of the four MI's are unavailable C) A backup OF that fits your specific need.
A is Chavis. B will be Dalbec, at mid-season or so. C has to be regarded as vacant, although Andreoli is in the mix if they signed him with a plan to tweak his swing. They can really use someone who can play CF and RF, because it's beginning to look like Beni there is not a good idea.
(Note that with that bench, the one scenario you worry about is Bogaerts and Peraza dinged at the same time, or when you hit for Peraza and then Xander gets hurt. In those scenarios, you likely have Chavis at SS and Vazquez (or Dalbec if you give him some infield reps there) at 2B. The latter is just for an inning or two. If both Bogaerts and Peraza are hurt but neither will be out long enough to warrant a DL stint, you can option Dalbec (or the 4th OF if he has them left) and recall Marco. That he has options left means it's reasonably likely we'll see him again at some point.)
I could still see them signing [someone like] Cesar Puello as a non-roster guy with the hope that he fills the true 4th OF role from day 1.
Picking up a guy like that from the waiver wire in ST is another very real possibility.
Now, Dalbec starts the season in AAA, and there's no one around who can fill the his role temporarily, unless they have a fix in mind for Longhi's swing that works instantly (otherwise, he's just not good enough yet). That means there's a perfect opportunity to give Arauz a shot if he impresses in ST. And they can keep him all year if Beni's defense bounces back and he becomes the 3rd good defensive OFer. If Arauz doesn't impress in ST (or any time thereafter), they can return him and Lin or Marco gets the roster pot for the time being.
Until they call up Dalbec, it would be insanely redundant to forego adding a third good defensive OFer, and have both both Lin and Arauz on the bench alongside Chavis. Barring injuries, or scenarios with a bad defensive OF, it would be tough to find PT for one of them, let alone both. Whereas a 3rd good defensive OFer could actually get some starts when either your CF and RF (whoever they end up being) needs a day off.
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Post by dmaineah on Jan 30, 2020 8:21:06 GMT -5
I noticed you did not mention Marcus Wilson who is already on the 40 man roster. Does Wilson fit as the possible bench Outfielder if he impresses in spring training? Could he be in the mix for the 13th position player, 26th man roster spot along with others? Is Arauz competing with Lin (along with Chatham & Hernandez) for a spot? To open the season could A,B,C be;
A) Lin/Arauz/Chatham/Hernandez
B) Chavis
C) Wilson
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 30, 2020 11:11:35 GMT -5
A is Chavis for 2B/3B and Lin/Arauz for2B/SS/3B B is Chavis C is Lin/Peraza/Chavis/JD Martinez
Their bench is absolutely fine. Why are people so concerned about the maybe 1 game a week a regular player needs to take off? We have a backup at every position: Pos. Starter/Backup C: Vazuez/Plawecki 1B: Moreland/Chavis 2B: Peraza/Chavis, Lin, Arauz SS: Bogaerts/Peraza, Lin, Arauz 3B: Devers/Chavis, Lin, Arauz LF: Benintendi/Peraza, JD, Lin (rumors Chavis gets some work here as well) CF: JBJ/Benintendi, Lin, Peraza RF: Betts/JD, Benintendi, Peraza
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Post by incandenza on Jan 30, 2020 12:52:05 GMT -5
A is Chavis for 2B/3B and Lin/Arauz for2B/SS/3B B is Chavis C is Lin/Peraza/Chavis/JD Martinez Their bench is absolutely fine. Why are people so concerned about the maybe 1 game a week a regular player needs to take off? We have a backup at every position: Pos. Starter/Backup C: Vazuez/Plawecki 1B: Moreland/Chavis 2B: Peraza/Chavis, Lin, Arauz SS: Bogaerts/Peraza, Lin, Arauz 3B: Devers/Chavis, Lin, Arauz LF: Benintendi/Peraza, JD, Lin (rumors Chavis gets some work here as well) CF: JBJ/Benintendi, Lin, Peraza RF: Betts/JD, Benintendi, Peraza The bench is coming into shape, but it's not just 1 game a week at every position; it's injuries as well. Outside of the 9 guys who had the most PAs in 2019 (which included Chavis, himself a depth option), they still needed 1278 PAs, not counting pitchers. That's 20% of the team's total, or more than twice as many as Benintendi had. And that was with unusually good luck on the injury front. If anything we don't pay enough attention to the fringes of the roster. By the way, the fWAR total of that group was -3.2. Just getting that crew up to replacement level would be worth half a Mookie!
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 30, 2020 13:17:25 GMT -5
Where are you getting -3.2? Are you saying all the Sox bench players combined last year were -3.2? Well then this bench is perfect:
Lin: 0.0 Plawecki: 0.2 Chavis: 0.7 Peraza: -0.6 Arauz: Didn't play in MLB
They had a total of 0.3 fWAR in 2019
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Post by mwgray13 on Jan 30, 2020 13:23:11 GMT -5
They league is capping pitching staffs at 13. The latest I have seen on it was that the Joint Committee would monitor it. Do you have a link to an official MLB release or document stating it would be limited to 13?
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 30, 2020 13:24:10 GMT -5
Also some more math, the 1278 PA's covered by a 5 man bench is 255 PA's per player. There's 26 weeks in the MLB season, so that's 10 PA's a week that need to be covered by the bench. So about 2 games a week, not 1, a bench player will need to start
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 30, 2020 13:26:20 GMT -5
They league is capping pitching staffs at 13. The latest I have seen on it was that the Joint Committee would monitor it. Do you have a link to an official MLB release or document stating it would be limited to 13? www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1936839"The league informed clubs on Wednesday that a maximum of 13 pitchers can be carried on the expanded roster, according to Jayson Stark of The Athletic."
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Post by mwgray13 on Jan 30, 2020 13:36:03 GMT -5
The latest I have seen on it was that the Joint Committee would monitor it. Do you have a link to an official MLB release or document stating it would be limited to 13? www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1936839"The league informed clubs on Wednesday that a maximum of 13 pitchers can be carried on the expanded roster, according to Jayson Stark of The Athletic." .... I was right as of yesterday.... haha
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Post by incandenza on Jan 30, 2020 14:01:33 GMT -5
Where are you getting -3.2? Are you saying all the Sox bench players combined last year were -3.2? Well then this bench is perfect: Lin: 0.0 Plawecki: 0.2 Chavis: 0.7 Peraza: -0.6 Arauz: Didn't play in MLB They had a total of 0.3 fWAR in 2019 I'm just adding the totals from the team stats page here. In fact of the bench players the only one above repleacement level was Holt, at 1.2. The rest combined for -4.4! On the one hand, losing Holt is significant. On the other hand, it would be hard for the rest of the bench to do that poorly again. (God, Nunez was so awful.)
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2020 Bench
Jan 30, 2020 14:41:01 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 30, 2020 14:41:01 GMT -5
(Note that with that bench, the one scenario you worry about is Bogaerts and Peraza dinged at the same time, or when you hit for Peraza and then Xander gets hurt. In those scenarios, you likely have Chavis at SS and Vazquez (or Dalbec if you give him some infield reps there) at 2B. The latter is just for an inning or two. If both Bogaerts and Peraza are hurt but neither will be out long enough to warrant a DL stint, you can option Dalbec (or the 4th OF if he has them left) and recall Marco. That he has options left means it's reasonably likely we'll see him again at some point. They could also turn to Chatham midseason if needed. I noticed you did not mention Marcus Wilson who is already on the 40 man roster. Does Wilson fit as the possible bench Outfielder if he impresses in spring training? Could he be in the mix for the 13th position player, 26th man roster spot along with others? Is Arauz competing with Lin (along with Chatham & Hernandez) for a spot? To open the season could A,B,C be; A) Lin/Arauz/Chatham/Hernandez B) Chavis C) Wilson Zero chance. I'll be stunned if he breaks camp with the PawSox, never mind the big league club.
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2020 Bench
Jan 30, 2020 14:43:06 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 30, 2020 14:43:06 GMT -5
They league is capping pitching staffs at 13. Thinking it through, this probably means one of the NRIs makes the club, at least for now, right? I think even if Dalbec freaking mashes in camp they keep him down to get the extra year, at least to start.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 31, 2020 9:55:05 GMT -5
They league is capping pitching staffs at 13. Thinking it through, this probably means one of the NRIs makes the club, at least for now, right? I think even if Dalbec freaking mashes in camp they keep him down to get the extra year, at least to start. I can see it now.....And at the end of camp the Red Sox DFA'd SP Ryan Weber to add Marco Hernandez to the 40
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 31, 2020 10:04:26 GMT -5
They league is capping pitching staffs at 13. Thinking it through, this probably means one of the NRIs makes the club, at least for now, right? I think even if Dalbec freaking mashes in camp they keep him down to get the extra year, at least to start. Depends how confident they are with Lin and Chavis in the outfield, I guess. If they're fine with it, it's probably the projected bench as it stands. If not, either Andreoli or Longhi is probably a better fit than Arauz (or Chavis, arguably). Andreoli's high OBPs and defense should give him the leg up, I think, though Longhi can complement Moreland if they do decide Chavis needs more time.
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Post by mwgray13 on Feb 3, 2020 12:23:52 GMT -5
De La Guerra could end up with the utility infielder role by the end of the season. Could be a better Holt.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 3, 2020 19:30:01 GMT -5
Thinking it through, this probably means one of the NRIs makes the club, at least for now, right? I think even if Dalbec freaking mashes in camp they keep him down to get the extra year, at least to start. Depends how confident they are with Lin and Chavis in the outfield, I guess. If they're fine with it, it's probably the projected bench as it stands. If not, either Andreoli or Longhi is probably a better fit than Arauz (or Chavis, arguably). Andreoli's high OBPs and defense should give him the leg up, I think, though Longhi can complement Moreland if they do decide Chavis needs more time. I don't think Chavis is part of this equation. The problem is that Benintendi has played the OF for three years in MLB and not even in his best defensive year did he project as other than an emergency guy for CF. They could really use a guy who can start and play an adequate CF or RF on days when Bradley or Verdugo (/ Betts) is out or needs a day off. Holt used to be able to play RF in Fenway, and became less valuable to them, as it now appears as if those days are over. At some point I'll use Outs Above Average to estimate a R /150 figure for JDM as a RF the last 4 years. But they're not going to be pretty.
Lin as a guy who could play CF on occasion is interesting.
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