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Post by soxfanatic on Mar 10, 2020 10:29:40 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 10, 2020 10:45:57 GMT -5
If Lucroy can cover a platoon at first, then this likely means Chavis begins the season in AAA to get regular playing time, with Arauz and Lin the likely beneficiaries.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 10, 2020 11:06:14 GMT -5
LOL, I have no clue why I'm blocked from Jason Mastrodonato's twitter account but I am. I've never replied to any of his tweets.
Insecurity is so limiting...
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Post by larrycook on Mar 10, 2020 20:43:09 GMT -5
Has Taylor’s velocity ticked up this spring?
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 10, 2020 21:48:52 GMT -5
Couldn't get the game until late on radio. At that point the announcers were giving some FB readings. Does anyone know how hard Johnson was throwing?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 11, 2020 3:03:43 GMT -5
If Lucroy can cover a platoon at first, then this likely means Chavis begins the season in AAA to get regular playing time, with Arauz and Lin the likely beneficiaries. Zero chance. or less.
Right now JDM is the fourth outfielder. You can put him out there against a tough lefty and have Chavis as the DH if Lucroy is at 1B vs. LHP.
Furthermore, Peraza is your backup SS. Not Lin or Arauz. That makes Chavis, at 2B or 3B, your virtual backup MI. He'll get plenty of playing time, including sharing 2B with Peraza.
Plawecki and Chavis are the givens on the bench. Other ways of filling it out:
Lin or Arauz, and Lucroy or Andreoli Lin and Arauz (very unlikly)
The first problem with selecting Lucroy is that as soon as Verdugo is healthy, you either have to go back to two catchers, or cut Lin / Arauz. The latter is actually doable; in an emergency when two of your 4 skill infielders are hurt, you can put Vazquez at 2B or 3B. Whereas if you select Andreoli instead, you have the option of optioning him rather than DFA'ing Lin or returning Arauz.
The second problem ... once you have a bench of Plawecki, Lucroy, Chavis, and Pillar, how do you fit in Dalbec as the 1B platoon partner? By trading Lucroy or Plawecki. In the alternate scenario, Lucroy is still in Pawtucket and you cut Lin or Arauz.
It would seem to make more sense to stash Lucroy in Pawtucket to start the season, and verify that he's come most of the way back. Get an actual sample of how good his bat is, against pitchers who are trying to get him out. So far, he's slugged .353 against (on average) AAA pitchers.
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Post by huskies15 on Mar 11, 2020 8:27:19 GMT -5
I wonder if a trade with Hou for Arauz could be in the works. He's interesting and having him in the system would be nice, but it's tough to see him sticking in MLB this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 11, 2020 12:52:04 GMT -5
FWIW, he's basing that in part on what seems to be an erroneous belief that Lucroy has to get a chance to go elsewhere before going to AAA. I recalled the being something like that but can't find it making me think it's from an old CBA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 11, 2020 18:12:56 GMT -5
So, what are the roster battles? I see three at this point:
- Ryan Brasier vs. Josh Osich for the last spot in the pen. Of course, one injury among the 12 guys in front of them and there's room for both. If everyone's healthy, 2018 Brasier >> Osich > 2019 Brasier, I think. Brewer, Springs et al were behind this pair in terms of track record and haven't done anything so far to change that, I think.
- Tzu-Wei Lin vs. Jonathan Arauz for one bench spot. Impossible to opine on this one without knowing how much they've been impressed by Arauz. You'd like to think he's good enough to keep around all year (or until they can make a deal to keep him) as the 3rd option at SS and 2B. They can very likely pass Lin through waivers at the end of ST.
- The loser of that vs. Jonathan Lucroy vs. John Andreoli for the other. As I noted a few posts ago, I think Andreoli is the likeliest right now. But Lucroy should get a chance against MB pitchers who are trying to get him out in the last week or so before the season starts, and it's conceivable that he's so impressive that they go with him starting the season.
They can clear a 40-man spot for Andreoli or Lucroy several ways: waiving Lin to Pawtucket, returning Arauz, putting Sale on the 60-day, or DFA'ing Phillips Valdez, the first of the fringe acquisitions to be sent down and hence presumably the one who was least impressive.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 11, 2020 18:56:53 GMT -5
So, what are the roster battles? I see three at this point: - Ryan Brasier vs. Josh Osich for the last spot in the pen. Of course, one injury among the 12 guys in front of them and there's room for both. If everyone's healthy, 2018 Brasier >> Osich > 2019 Brasier, I think. Brewer, Springs et al were behind this pair in terms of track record and haven't done anything so far to change that, I think.
- Tzu-Wei Lin vs. Jonathan Arauz for one bench spot. Impossible to opine on this one without knowing how much they've been impressed by Arauz. You'd like to think he's good enough to keep around all year (or until they can make a deal to keep him) as the 3rd option at SS and 2B. They can very likely pass Lin through waivers at the end of ST.
- The loser of that vs. Jonathan Lucroy vs. John Andreoli for the other. As I noted a few posts ago, I think Andreoli is the likeliest right now. But Lucroy should get a chance against MB pitchers who are trying to get him out in the last week or so before the season starts, and it's conceivable that he's so impressive that they go with him starting the season.
They can clear a 40-man spot for Andreoli or Lucroy several ways: waiving Lin to Pawtucket, returning Arauz, putting Sale on the 60-day, or DFA'ing Phillips Valdez, the first of the fringe acquisitions to be sent down and hence presumably the one who was least impressive. You seem to be about the only one that doesn't think there's a Lucroy / Plawecki competition for straight backup catcher.
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Post by kevfc89 on Mar 11, 2020 19:09:55 GMT -5
Eduardo, besides some bad defense mixed in that's led to some cheap hits, is carving through a Rays lineup of almost all their starters.
10 K's in 4 innings! I think he's poised to make another leap this year, never seen him look so confident in all his pitches at once.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 11, 2020 19:15:03 GMT -5
About 80 pitches for ERod in 4 innings. Some things don't change.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 11, 2020 21:57:10 GMT -5
So, what are the roster battles? I see three at this point: - Ryan Brasier vs. Josh Osich for the last spot in the pen. Of course, one injury among the 12 guys in front of them and there's room for both. If everyone's healthy, 2018 Brasier >> Osich > 2019 Brasier, I think. Brewer, Springs et al were behind this pair in terms of track record and haven't done anything so far to change that, I think.
- Tzu-Wei Lin vs. Jonathan Arauz for one bench spot. Impossible to opine on this one without knowing how much they've been impressed by Arauz. You'd like to think he's good enough to keep around all year (or until they can make a deal to keep him) as the 3rd option at SS and 2B. They can very likely pass Lin through waivers at the end of ST.
- The loser of that vs. Jonathan Lucroy vs. John Andreoli for the other. As I noted a few posts ago, I think Andreoli is the likeliest right now. But Lucroy should get a chance against MB pitchers who are trying to get him out in the last week or so before the season starts, and it's conceivable that he's so impressive that they go with him starting the season.
They can clear a 40-man spot for Andreoli or Lucroy several ways: waiving Lin to Pawtucket, returning Arauz, putting Sale on the 60-day, or DFA'ing Phillips Valdez, the first of the fringe acquisitions to be sent down and hence presumably the one who was least impressive. You seem to be about the only one that doesn't think there's a Lucroy / Plawecki competition for straight backup catcher. It's apparently a state secret, but Plawecki projects to be one of the best backup catchers in baseball. (Maybe the best, but I'm not going to bother running those numbers.)
Weirdly enough, that may have something to do with why they acquired him!
Let's be silly and say that the Lucroy people are dreaming on is 4 WAR better than Plaweki, as a regular catcher.
Which is 1.3 WAR as a backup. Which is 0.2 WAR over one month.
That, my folks, is the maximum downside to keeping one of the best backup catchers in baseball and finding out just how good Lucroy actually is by having him be the AAA regular. By failing to gamble on Lucroy, you might miss a whole 0.2 wins.
OTOH, if you cut Plawecki and go with Lucroy, and Lucroy is Grady Sizemore Mk. 2, that's as much as a 2 win downgrade over the season.
Furthermore, what happens if Vazquez or Lucroy gets hurt? (Gee, do catcher gets hurt? Have these guys gotten hurt?)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 11, 2020 22:19:06 GMT -5
You seem to be about the only one that doesn't think there's a Lucroy / Plawecki competition for straight backup catcher. It's apparently a state secret, but Plawecki projects to be one of the best backup catchers in baseball. (Maybe the best, but I'm not going to bother running those numbers.)
Weirdly enough, that may have something to do with why they acquired him! Let's be silly and say that the Lucroy people are dreaming on is 4 WAR better than Plaweki, as a regular catcher. Which is 1.3 WAR as a backup. Which is 0.2 WAR over one month.
That, my folks, is the maximum downside to keeping one of the best backup catchers in baseball and finding out just how good Lucroy actually is by having him be the AAA regular. By failing to gamble on Lucroy, you might miss a whole 0.2 wins.
OTOH, if you cut Plawecki and go with Lucroy, and Lucroy is Grady Sizemore Mk. 2, that's as much as a 2 win downgrade over the season. Furthermore, what happens if Vazquez or Lucroy gets hurt? (Gee, do catcher gets hurt? Have these guys gotten hurt?)
If the Sox were punting the season, I'd buy that scenario to the degree you do but, given Lucroy's health history and signs that he's healthy, I doubt if it's a forgone conclusion that we're going to keep down a catcher with 4 seasons wRC+ of 1.16 to 1.33 to keep a catcher who projects to 84 wRC+. We aren't going to see the answer in spring stats, scouting will make the call. The other side of that coin is that If Lucroy is 100% back to normal, he's worth a boatload at the trade deadline. For effect, try breaking it down to WAR per day.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 12, 2020 1:33:36 GMT -5
It's apparently a state secret, but Plawecki projects to be one of the best backup catchers in baseball. (Maybe the best, but I'm not going to bother running those numbers.)
Weirdly enough, that may have something to do with why they acquired him! Let's be silly and say that the Lucroy people are dreaming on is 4 WAR better than Plaweki, as a regular catcher. Which is 1.3 WAR as a backup. Which is 0.2 WAR over one month.
That, my folks, is the maximum downside to keeping one of the best backup catchers in baseball and finding out just how good Lucroy actually is by having him be the AAA regular. By failing to gamble on Lucroy, you might miss a whole 0.2 wins.
OTOH, if you cut Plawecki and go with Lucroy, and Lucroy is Grady Sizemore Mk. 2, that's as much as a 2 win downgrade over the season. Furthermore, what happens if Vazquez or Lucroy gets hurt? (Gee, do catcher gets hurt? Have these guys gotten hurt?)
If the Sox were punting the season, I'd buy that scenario to the degree you do but, given Lucroy's health history and signs that he's healthy, I doubt if it's a forgone conclusion that we're going to keep down a catcher with 4 seasons wRC+ of 1.16 to 1.33 to keep a catcher who projects to 84 wRC+. We aren't going to see the answer in spring stats, scouting will make the call. The other side of that coin is that If Lucroy is 100% back to normal, he's worth a boatload at the trade deadline. For effect, try breaking it down to WAR per day. Who said anything about keeping him down? I thought it was pretty clear from what you quoted that I'm advocating waiting just a month (although your last line suggests you missed it). Heck, he could be so good down there that it's just 10 days (which is how long a certain third baseman spent in AAA). The point is that there's essentially nothing to lose by starting him in AAA in seeing how he does in games that are ... actual games.
Furthermore, because of this logic, if the Sox were to shop Plawecki and gamble on Lucroy (even if it's beginning to look like a small gamble), everyone would believe that the Sox saw something in Plawecki that they didn't like. Give him three or four weeks of excellent backup catching, and three or four weeks of Lucroy proving in AAA that he's that much better, and he has hugely more trade value.
I actually like the odds of Lucroy supplanting Lin on the roster, giving us a bench of him, Plawecki, Chavis, and Pillar. But the notion of jumping the gun on his arrival here for literally no good reason is a non-starter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2020 7:13:44 GMT -5
We had to bag the SP trip, unfortunately. In addition to the obvious concerns, we feared getting down there only to not have access to the back fields (I'd be stunned if they don't restrict access in the next couple days).
Sucks because this is usually one-stop shopping for the entire system, and combining that with the changes to Fall Instructs, it puts us behind on evaluating the rookie ball guys, but we're going to try to book some kind of trip over the summer to make up for it (southern affiliate barnstorming tour?).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 12, 2020 7:18:22 GMT -5
We had to bag the SP trip, unfortunately. In addition to the obvious concerns, we feared getting down there only to not have access to the back fields (I'd be stunned if they don't restrict access in the next couple days). Sucks because this is usually one-stop shopping for the entire system, and combining that with the changes to Fall Instructs, it puts us behind on evaluating the rookie ball guys, but we're going to try to book some kind of trip over the summer to make up for it (southern affiliate barnstorming tour?). Wise move.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2020 9:41:11 GMT -5
We've learned that Austin Maddox, Daniel Bakst, Gregorio Reyes, and Luke Tendler have retired. In addition, Kleiber Rodriguez was released.
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Post by huskies15 on Mar 12, 2020 9:51:46 GMT -5
Dang was hoping Bakst would pan out, but clearly he has something going on and baseball just hasn't been worth it to him. Maddox has had a rough go of it in recent times. Bummer.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 12, 2020 10:11:51 GMT -5
We've learned that Austin Maddox, Daniel Bakst, Gregorio Reyes, and Luke Tendler have retired. In addition, Kleiber Rodriguez was released. That's too bad. Would have loved to have seen what Bakst could have been. He was already off to a promising start. Austin Maddox will retire with a major league career ERA of 0.52. What a month of Sept 2017 he had - good enough to get him onto the post-season roster at the expense of Matt Barnes.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2020 10:26:56 GMT -5
I presume (no inside info) Bakst just didn't want to play. Based on his social media he just seems to have other interests, like making music.
Sox will hold on to his v rights if he ever changes his mind. No risk, high reward bid that didn't pan out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 12, 2020 11:03:29 GMT -5
We've learned that Austin Maddox, Daniel Bakst, Gregorio Reyes, and Luke Tendler have retired. In addition, Kleiber Rodriguez was released. That's too bad. Would have loved to have seen what Bakst could have been. He was already off to a promising start. Austin Maddox will retire with a major league career ERA of 0.52. What a month of Sept 2017 he had - good enough to get him onto the post-season roster at the expense of Matt Barnes. He had a 4.55 career ERA in the minors. I wonder who his competition is for biggest differential, minimum 15 IP in MLB.
His ERA by seasons:
5.63 in low-A (but a 6.85 RA) 5.82 in high-A (nothing unearned) 3.71 in high-A 3.59 in high-A and AA 2.92 in AA and AAA, and the 0.52 in September
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Post by carmenfanzone on Mar 12, 2020 11:30:02 GMT -5
We had to bag the SP trip, unfortunately. In addition to the obvious concerns, we feared getting down there only to not have access to the back fields (I'd be stunned if they don't restrict access in the next couple days). Sucks because this is usually one-stop shopping for the entire system, and combining that with the changes to Fall Instructs, it puts us behind on evaluating the rookie ball guys, but we're going to try to book some kind of trip over the summer to make up for it (southern affiliate barnstorming tour?). Went to back fields to watch practice this morning. No restrictions at this time. Also, not more than 10 people walking around. Of course, that could change by tomorrow. My hope is that they close the major league spring training games to fans, but leave the minor league games alone so those few of us who want to can watch those can. Spent some time watching Danny Diaz taking infield and BP to me. He just doesn't do anything for me. Hope I am wrong. Anyone hearing anything about his attitude? His infield seemed half- hearted. Two other guys in his BP group, Gonzalez and Belen, looked better to me, b ut clearly a small sample.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2020 12:27:24 GMT -5
MLB will suspend operations per the usual suspects like Passan, Rosenthal, Sherman. Sherman says starting tomorrow. Opening Day likely to be delayed.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 12, 2020 12:50:05 GMT -5
MLB will suspend operations per the usual suspects like Passan, Rosenthal, Sherman. Sherman says starting tomorrow. Opening Day likely to be delayed. WORST.......OFFSEASON.........EVER
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