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MLB plotting playoff expansion — with reality TV twist
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 12, 2020 15:38:54 GMT -5
But it's far more likely for teams with losing records to beat the best teams in baseball than it is in other sports, as has been said repeatedly in this thread. So that turns MLB into a joke unless you really think it's a good look for a team with a losing record to win a championship. It will happen. The New York Giants won in 2007 with a 10-6 record. The 2011 New York Giants won with a 9-7 record. A team who was barely above .500 People still didn't care and still watched. That kind of team is right on par with the 2005 Cardinals in baseball. It would still be no different than the NFL.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 12, 2020 15:52:33 GMT -5
But it's far more likely for teams with losing records to beat the best teams in baseball than it is in other sports, as has been said repeatedly in this thread. So that turns MLB into a joke unless you really think it's a good look for a team with a losing record to win a championship. It will happen. The New York Giants won in 2007 with a 10-6 record. The 2011 New York Giants won with a 9-7 record. A team who was barely above .500 People still didn't care and still watched. That kind of team is right on par with the 2005 Cardinals in baseball. It would still be no different than the NFL. I mean, a 9-7 record is a .563 winning percentage. That's a 91 win baseball season, which makes for a far more defensible champion than an 81 win baseball team.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 12, 2020 16:09:09 GMT -5
The New York Giants won in 2007 with a 10-6 record. The 2011 New York Giants won with a 9-7 record. A team who was barely above .500 People still didn't care and still watched. That kind of team is right on par with the 2005 Cardinals in baseball. It would still be no different than the NFL. I mean, a 9-7 record is a .563 winning percentage. That's a 91 win baseball season, which makes for a far more defensible champion than an 81 win baseball team. It's a game above .500 The equivalent in baseball would be a team 82-80 record winning it all if football was 162 games long. The only reason why the winning percentage is so high is because number of games played is down.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 12, 2020 16:11:27 GMT -5
The 2004 Patriots were only 12 games over .500, that's like 87-75, what bums.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 12, 2020 16:21:32 GMT -5
The 2004 Patriots were only 12 games over .500, that's like 87-75, what bums. The argument is that people here keep making is that bad teams would only eventually win in baseball (or win more often), which you know, is in fact disingenuous. Basketball is the only sport where the Golliath (or best teams) usually wins. Every other sport is just a tournament of the hottest team. So take that argument elsewhere.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 12, 2020 16:23:52 GMT -5
I don't get the football/baseball comparisons. Are we really comparing miniscule 16 game NFL seasons to grueling 162 game MLB seasons? Really?
There are enough teams making the playoffs in baseball already. We don't need to have a bunch of .500 teams in the playoffs become commonplace. I'd rather see the 06 Cardinals be an exception than see it become commonplace.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 12, 2020 16:27:25 GMT -5
The 2004 Patriots were only 12 games over .500, that's like 87-75, what bums. The argument is that people here keep making is that bad teams would only eventually win in baseball (or win more often), which you know, is in fact disingenuous. Basketball is the only sport where the Golliath (or best teams) usually wins. Every other sport is just a tournament of the hottest team. So take that argument elsewhere. Look, I'm sure the 2019 Tigers could take down the 1998 Yankees in a short post-season series occasionally, but why should a 7th best in the league .500ish team who can't win their division or even be one of the best that doesn't, make the playoffs? Why do they deserve it? Making the playoffs should be a privilege, not a birthright. This half the league deserves to get in stuff is nonsense.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 12, 2020 16:27:49 GMT -5
I don't get the football/baseball comparisons. Are we really comparing miniscule 16 game NFL seasons to grueling 162 game MLB seasons? Really? No, "we" are not...
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 12, 2020 16:32:24 GMT -5
The argument is that people here keep making is that bad teams would only eventually win in baseball (or win more often), which you know, is in fact disingenuous. Basketball is the only sport where the Golliath (or best teams) usually wins. Every other sport is just a tournament of the hottest team. So take that argument elsewhere. Look, I'm sure the 2019 Tigers could take down the 1998 Yankees in a short post-season series occasionally, but why should a 7th best in the league .500ish team who can't win their division or even be one of the best that doesn't, make the playoffs? Why do they deserve it? Making the playoffs should be a privilege, not a birthright. This half the league deserves to get in stuff is nonsense. The 2019 Tigers wouldn't make this postseason format. More than half the team's in the league would be getting in for about 8-10 years until expansion comes, then it will be less than half the league or half the league. The season is made for seeding and that kind of stuff anyways. Attendance has been dropping for 7 years straight, so people in baseball are caring less and less about the "important baseball games in season" right now as is. The only way to expand more money in baseball is to expand the postseason and expand play-off teams. That stuff sells. The Wild card games I'm almost positive gets more viewership than most world series games.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 12, 2020 16:34:13 GMT -5
I mean, a 9-7 record is a .563 winning percentage. That's a 91 win baseball season, which makes for a far more defensible champion than an 81 win baseball team. It's a game above .500 The equivalent in baseball would be a team 82-80 record winning it all if football was 162 games long. The only reason why the winning percentage is so high is because number of games played is down. Math is hard, isn't it?
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 12, 2020 16:39:44 GMT -5
It's a game above .500 The equivalent in baseball would be a team 82-80 record winning it all if football was 162 games long. The only reason why the winning percentage is so high is because number of games played is down. Math is hard, isn't it? Not when you completely take it out of context. Someone bringing up winning percentage in this case was, in fact, grasping at straws. Nice demeaning post though.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 12, 2020 16:46:29 GMT -5
Not when you completely take it out of context. Someone bringing up winning percentage in this case was, in fact, grasping at straws. Nice demeaning post though. Please explain why you extrapolate a football team that is 9-7 to win exactly 50% instead of 56.25% of the next 146 games if they had the same length season. There is NO math that equates a 82-80 team to a 9-7 team.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 12, 2020 16:54:32 GMT -5
Not when you completely take it out of context. Someone bringing up winning percentage in this case was, in fact, grasping at straws. Nice demeaning post though. Please explain why you extrapolate a football team that is 9-7 to win exactly 50% instead of 56.25% of the next 146 games if they had the same length season. There is NO math that equates a 82-80 team to a 9-7 team. Stop looking at the winning percentage. It doesn't matter in this case. It only proves that the Giants were in fact the worst regular season team with the worst record and they won the title that year. That was the argument I was making. The one argument you pointed out. You act like baseball is the only sport that it would happen in. It's not!!!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 12, 2020 16:57:56 GMT -5
Look, I'm sure the 2019 Tigers could take down the 1998 Yankees in a short post-season series occasionally, but why should a 7th best in the league .500ish team who can't win their division or even be one of the best that doesn't, make the playoffs? Why do they deserve it? Making the playoffs should be a privilege, not a birthright. This half the league deserves to get in stuff is nonsense. The 2019 Tigers wouldn't make this postseason format. More than half the team's in the league would be getting in for about 8-10 years until expansion comes, then it will be less than half the league or half the league. The season is made for seeding and that kind of stuff anyways. Attendance has been dropping for 7 years straight, so people in baseball are caring less and less about the "important baseball games in season" right now as is. The only way to expand more money in baseball is to expand the postseason and expand play-off teams. That stuff sells. The Wild card games I'm almost positive gets more viewership than most world series games. I know. I was trying to make a point. After the novelty quickly wears off what makes you think that Wild Card games are more important or riveting than the World Series. It's just another gimmicky layer of playoffs. I mean, we might as well start the playoffs in May, in case teams that lose 100 games don't get huge viewership beyond April. I hate this watering down the playoffs crap. I grew up in the four division setup where finishing first ahead of 6 other teams mattered and there was only one memorable round of playoffs needed to get to the Series. Then they split into three smaller divisions and added the Wild Card, which I hated. I didn't like that the Wild Card had as much privilege as 1st place teams. If they were going to do 3 divisions and have a Wild Card, then I'm glad they added the new wrinkle of a 2nd wild card team playing a 1 game playoff against the other Wild Card team. Makes it important to win your division. Now that won't matter at all. You can be as mediocre as you want to be and still make the playoffs. It's at the point I can barely even remember the first round of playoffs by time they get to the Series. Now they're going to add another round? It's getting to the point of what is the point of trying to win 100 games? With 4 rounds you're just as likely to get bounced out anyways just as much as an 83 win team.
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Post by p23w on Feb 12, 2020 18:07:00 GMT -5
The 2019 Tigers wouldn't make this postseason format. More than half the team's in the league would be getting in for about 8-10 years until expansion comes, then it will be less than half the league or half the league. The season is made for seeding and that kind of stuff anyways. Attendance has been dropping for 7 years straight, so people in baseball are caring less and less about the "important baseball games in season" right now as is. The only way to expand more money in baseball is to expand the postseason and expand play-off teams. That stuff sells. The Wild card games I'm almost positive gets more viewership than most world series games. I know. I was trying to make a point. After the novelty quickly wears off what makes you think that Wild Card games are more important or riveting than the World Series. It's just another gimmicky layer of playoffs. I mean, we might as well start the playoffs in May, in case teams that lose 100 games don't get huge viewership beyond April. I hate this watering down the playoffs crap. I grew up in the four division setup where finishing first ahead of 6 other teams mattered and there was only one memorable round of playoffs needed to get to the Series. Then they split into three smaller divisions and added the Wild Card, which I hated. I didn't like that the Wild Card had as much privilege as 1st place teams. If they were going to do 3 divisions and have a Wild Card, then I'm glad they added the new wrinkle of a 2nd wild card team playing a 1 game playoff against the other Wild Card team. Makes it important to win your division. Now that won't matter at all. You can be as mediocre as you want to be and still make the playoffs. It's at the point I can barely even remember the first round of playoffs by time they get to the Series. Now they're going to add another round? It's getting to the point of what is the point of trying to win 100 games? With 4 rounds you're just as likely to get bounced out anyways just as much as an 83 win team. If your a Red Sox fan and you want your team to make the playoffs in 2021 and beyond (foreseeable future) you want this expanded playoff scenario. The NYY are gonna' be good for years... The Rays have above average young pitching. The Blue Jays have a "core" that will surpass the Mookie less Red Sox core within 2 years. Sox are gonna' struggle to win 85+ games. If this Sox team is running on all cylinders in October, they could catch lightening in a bottle and Mookie could visit Fenway in October.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 12, 2020 18:31:44 GMT -5
I know. I was trying to make a point. After the novelty quickly wears off what makes you think that Wild Card games are more important or riveting than the World Series. It's just another gimmicky layer of playoffs. I mean, we might as well start the playoffs in May, in case teams that lose 100 games don't get huge viewership beyond April. I hate this watering down the playoffs crap. I grew up in the four division setup where finishing first ahead of 6 other teams mattered and there was only one memorable round of playoffs needed to get to the Series. Then they split into three smaller divisions and added the Wild Card, which I hated. I didn't like that the Wild Card had as much privilege as 1st place teams. If they were going to do 3 divisions and have a Wild Card, then I'm glad they added the new wrinkle of a 2nd wild card team playing a 1 game playoff against the other Wild Card team. Makes it important to win your division. Now that won't matter at all. You can be as mediocre as you want to be and still make the playoffs. It's at the point I can barely even remember the first round of playoffs by time they get to the Series. Now they're going to add another round? It's getting to the point of what is the point of trying to win 100 games? With 4 rounds you're just as likely to get bounced out anyways just as much as an 83 win team. If your a Red Sox fan and you want your team to make the playoffs in 2021 and beyond (foreseeable future) you want this expanded playoff scenario. The NYY are gonna' be good for years... The Rays have above average young pitching. The Blue Jays have a "core" that will surpass the Mookie less Red Sox core within 2 years. Sox are gonna' struggle to win 85+ games. If this Sox team is running on all cylinders in October, they could catch lightening in a bottle and Mookie could visit Fenway in October. My interest in the Red Sox doesn't exceed what I think is best for baseball. It's not like I'd get really excited about an 85 win team that's being gift wrapped a post-season berth they don't really deserve.
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Post by baseballlifer34 on Feb 12, 2020 19:55:53 GMT -5
The 2019 Tigers wouldn't make this postseason format. More than half the team's in the league would be getting in for about 8-10 years until expansion comes, then it will be less than half the league or half the league. The season is made for seeding and that kind of stuff anyways. Attendance has been dropping for 7 years straight, so people in baseball are caring less and less about the "important baseball games in season" right now as is. The only way to expand more money in baseball is to expand the postseason and expand play-off teams. That stuff sells. The Wild card games I'm almost positive gets more viewership than most world series games. I know. I was trying to make a point. After the novelty quickly wears off what makes you think that Wild Card games are more important or riveting than the World Series. It's just another gimmicky layer of playoffs. I mean, we might as well start the playoffs in May, in case teams that lose 100 games don't get huge viewership beyond April. I hate this watering down the playoffs crap. I grew up in the four division setup where finishing first ahead of 6 other teams mattered and there was only one memorable round of playoffs needed to get to the Series. Then they split into three smaller divisions and added the Wild Card, which I hated. I didn't like that the Wild Card had as much privilege as 1st place teams. If they were going to do 3 divisions and have a Wild Card, then I'm glad they added the new wrinkle of a 2nd wild card team playing a 1 game playoff against the other Wild Card team. Makes it important to win your division. Now that won't matter at all. You can be as mediocre as you want to be and still make the playoffs. It's at the point I can barely even remember the first round of playoffs by time they get to the Series. Now they're going to add another round? It's getting to the point of what is the point of trying to win 100 games? With 4 rounds you're just as likely to get bounced out anyways just as much as an 83 win team. I respect your answer and opinion, but it just seems to me (and this is impression only) that you are use to the things the way they are and the way they use to be. If Manfred is proposing this and thinking along these lines with this kind of idea, then all I can tell you is to get ready for it. Manfred wants this and he has held true to all his promises except for the pitch clock, which has had a ton of resistance by the players union to this point and Manfred doesn't want to piss the players off more than they are because of the free agency/service time issues in the MLB right now. As I pointed out earlier and it remains the best point, TV deals in the playoffs are up by the time the CBA expires (besides the world series). Expanded playoffs and expanded teams are coming. It's just the reality of the situation. Best choice is to accept it now while you can.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 12, 2020 21:54:25 GMT -5
I know. I was trying to make a point. After the novelty quickly wears off what makes you think that Wild Card games are more important or riveting than the World Series. It's just another gimmicky layer of playoffs. I mean, we might as well start the playoffs in May, in case teams that lose 100 games don't get huge viewership beyond April. I hate this watering down the playoffs crap. I grew up in the four division setup where finishing first ahead of 6 other teams mattered and there was only one memorable round of playoffs needed to get to the Series. Then they split into three smaller divisions and added the Wild Card, which I hated. I didn't like that the Wild Card had as much privilege as 1st place teams. If they were going to do 3 divisions and have a Wild Card, then I'm glad they added the new wrinkle of a 2nd wild card team playing a 1 game playoff against the other Wild Card team. Makes it important to win your division. Now that won't matter at all. You can be as mediocre as you want to be and still make the playoffs. It's at the point I can barely even remember the first round of playoffs by time they get to the Series. Now they're going to add another round? It's getting to the point of what is the point of trying to win 100 games? With 4 rounds you're just as likely to get bounced out anyways just as much as an 83 win team. I respect your answer and opinion, but it just seems to me (and this is impression only) that you are use to the things the way they are and the way they use to be. If Manfred is proposing this and thinking along these lines with this kind of idea, then all I can tell you is to get ready for it. Manfred wants this and he has held true to all his promises except for the pitch clock, which has had a ton of resistance by the players union to this point and Manfred doesn't want to piss the players off more than they are because of the free agency/service time issues in the MLB right now. As I pointed out earlier and it remains the best point, TV deals in the playoffs are up by the time the CBA expires (besides the world series). Expanded playoffs and expanded teams are coming. It's just the reality of the situation. Best choice is to accept it now while you can. It's more a matter of preference. I was born shortly after the split into 2 six team divisions per league. It makes sense. The Yankees blocked access to the World Series for many, many years. The draft, which came in 1965, was a big equalizer as they had to wait their turn to get talent, but really, it makes sense that if you have a ten team league (or even 8 as prior to expansion), that you're going to have way too many also-rans. So as they expanded again in 1969, it made great sense to create more division races, and at that point there was only one layer of playoffs between the regular season and World Series. That's what I grew up with and liked. If you won your division, whether it was with 85 wins like the 1987 Twins or won 99 and lost like the 1978 Red Sox did, to make the playoffs you still had to beat at least five other teams in your division, so I felt like you earned your way there. I hated the split into 3 divisions and the creation of the Wild Card. It watered down the divisions, particularly in those 4 team western divisions and the Wild Card had almost as much of an advantage as the 1st place teams. I mean, in 2007, with flashbacks of the 1978 pennant race going on as the Red Sox 14 game lead over NYY slipped to 1.5 games in September, Joe Torre called off the dogs, feeling it was better off to get ready for the Division Series than trying to overtake the Red Sox, and I found there was way too much of that, watering down division races, which I hated. But I'm not that much of a carmudgeon that I had an issue with a new wrinkle. I actually liked the idea - if we're going to have a Wild Card anyways, why not add one more wild card per league and make the two wild cards play a sudden death game? I liked it because it gave teams incentive to win the division to avoid that coin toss game. And really, 10 out of 30 teams making the playoffs meant that most 90 win caliber teams were going to the post-season. Fair enough. But adding 2 more wild cards per team knocks that caliber down by another 5 games or so and makes it about as likely to make the playoffs as miss. And making the playoffs shouldn't be that damn easy. Manfred will do what he wants, often to the detriment of the game. I hate that start the runner at 2b in extra innings nonsense. I'm sure they'll eventually do HR derby or something stupid like that, too. I'm cool with pitch clocks, 26 men rosters, 28 in September, face 3 batter rules....I'm fine with some of these rule changes...but others..yuch!!
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Post by p23w on Feb 13, 2020 0:06:43 GMT -5
I respect your answer and opinion, but it just seems to me (and this is impression only) that you are use to the things the way they are and the way they use to be. If Manfred is proposing this and thinking along these lines with this kind of idea, then all I can tell you is to get ready for it. Manfred wants this and he has held true to all his promises except for the pitch clock, which has had a ton of resistance by the players union to this point and Manfred doesn't want to piss the players off more than they are because of the free agency/service time issues in the MLB right now. As I pointed out earlier and it remains the best point, TV deals in the playoffs are up by the time the CBA expires (besides the world series). Expanded playoffs and expanded teams are coming. It's just the reality of the situation. Best choice is to accept it now while you can.It's more a matter of preference. [/b] More money from big media is just Manfred doing the bidding of the owners, or so it would seem. I was born shortly after the split into 2 six team divisions per league. It makes sense. The Yankees blocked access to the World Series for many, many years. The draft, which came in 1965, was a big equalizer as they had to wait their turn to get talent, but really, it makes sense that if you have a ten team league (or even 8 as prior to expansion), that you're going to have way too many also-rans. So as they expanded again in 1969, it made great sense to create more division races, and at that point there was only one layer of playoffs between the regular season and World Series. That's what I grew up with and liked. If you won your division, whether it was with 85 wins like the 1987 Twins or won 99 and lost like the 1978 Red Sox did, to make the playoffs you still had to beat at least five other teams in your division, so I felt like you earned your way there. I hated the split into 3 divisions and the creation of the Wild Card. It watered down the divisions, particularly in those 4 team western divisions and the Wild Card had almost as much of an advantage as the 1st place teams. I mean, in 2007, with flashbacks of the 1978 pennant race going on as the Red Sox 14 game lead over NYY slipped to 1.5 games in September, Joe Torre called off the dogs, feeling it was better off to get ready for the Division Series than trying to overtake the Red Sox, and I found there was way too much of that, watering down division races, which I hated. But I'm not that much of a carmudgeon that I had an issue with a new wrinkle. I actually liked the idea - if we're going to have a Wild Card anyways, why not add one more wild card per league and make the two wild cards play a sudden death game? I liked it because it gave teams incentive to win the division to avoid that coin toss game. And really, 10 out of 30 teams making the playoffs meant that most 90 win caliber teams were going to the post-season. Fair enough. But adding 2 more wild cards per team knocks that caliber down by another 5 games or so and makes it about as likely to make the playoffs as miss. And making the playoffs shouldn't be that damn easy. Manfred will do what he wants, often to the detriment of the game.
I hate that start the runner at 2b in extra innings nonsense. I'm sure they'll eventually do HR derby or something stupid like that, too.
I'm cool with pitch clocks, 26 men rosters, 28 in September, face 3 batter rules....I'm fine with some of these rule changes...but others..yuch!!
[/quote] [/b] Manfred will do what the owners want him to do. Starting runners at 2B and "shoot out" home run derbies are means to conform to Big Media's time constraints. Pitch clocks and visits to the mound fall into this same category. Follow the money. The money will sponsor "independent" studies that draw a direct corelation to "viewership" (as opposed to fan attendance) and future generation interest as the basis for shoe horning new rules to fit what "works" to maintain said interest in front of a TV or streamed smart device. Social media is encouraged to manipulate the "hype". The business of the the game has become an obsession on this board. Changes to the game, however well intentioned, are driven by money. And yes, this old fogey still yearns for a 154 game regular season.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 13, 2020 7:14:07 GMT -5
Please explain why you extrapolate a football team that is 9-7 to win exactly 50% instead of 56.25% of the next 146 games if they had the same length season. There is NO math that equates a 82-80 team to a 9-7 team. Stop looking at the winning percentage. It doesn't matter in this case. It only proves that the Giants were in fact the worst regular season team with the worst record and they won the title that year. That was the argument I was making. The one argument you pointed out. You act like baseball is the only sport that it would happen in. It's not!!! We're arguing over why you want it to happen far more often, not that it has never happened. And I'm sorry that you cannot follow that a 9-7 team is not just like an 82-80 team because winning percentages are the only way you can compare different length schedules.
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 14, 2020 23:38:48 GMT -5
Stop looking at the winning percentage. It doesn't matter in this case. It only proves that the Giants were in fact the worst regular season team with the worst record and they won the title that year. That was the argument I was making. The one argument you pointed out. You act like baseball is the only sport that it would happen in. It's not!!! We're arguing over why you want it to happen far more often, not that it has never happened. And I'm sorry that you cannot follow that a 9-7 team is not just like an 82-80 team because winning percentages are the only way you can compare different length schedules. When a football team goes 9-7, you're likely one dropped pass or ill-timed pick-6 from going 10-6, which often (very often?) gets you into the playoffs. Which is why 9-7 is a good, solid year.
Under the proposed new system, going 83-79 will more often than not get you into the post-season. But that has never been good percentage of anything. It's a little above average, exactly 2.5% above average, in fact. If you paid a blackjack dealer a large sum of money to deal you better cards and the results turned out to be 2.5% better than random chance, and you had the right (which is to say, wrong) set of friends, that dealer is swimming with the fishes (i.e., he is held at gunpoint and forced to root for the Marlins). No baseball fan ever hopes or dreams that their team wins 83 games, because you're losing nearly half of them. That is mediocre by definition.
The minimum number of wins to make the post-season in baseball, where so much luck is involved in the outcome, has to match the minimum numbers of wins where fans feel the team was good.
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