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12/2 Non-Tender deadline discussion
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 2, 2020 22:22:35 GMT -5
David Dahl. I know he’s always banged up, but really nice upside. Underwent surgery on his right shoulder in September, but should be ready for spring training. DRS has him pegged as a bad defender no matter where he plays in the outfield, too. I'm not sure about Dahl. Wouldn't want to depend on him. He sounds like a future DH soon.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2020 23:41:04 GMT -5
I see that the Red Sox tendered Matt Barnes, which they should have, and I see the Sox tendered Brice, which kind of surprised me, but didn't shock me. I guess the cost was low enough that it didn't matter much.
I think with Venable around, there's a decent chance Almora winds up with the Red Sox if JBJ does indeed sign elsewhere as I anticipate he will. And like it was said, the fascination with Almora isn't that he's a great replacement for JBJ, because he's not an upgrade from JBJ - he's actually a downgrade - but he's the best guy out there who can play CF and prevent the Sox from shoehorning Verdugo or Benintendi into CF. In a perfect world, he's a good #4 OF.
I saw that the Dodgers acquired Knebel. Can they trade Kasowski for him? Is that something they can do with him off the 40 man roster? Just wondering, because I'm curious to see if the Sox nab him in the Rule 5 draft.
I did see a few of the less heralded bullpen names who could help. I think John Brebbia has pitched well for the Cards the past three years and could be a good get. From the left side Alex Claudio could help. Also noticed Archie Bradley was cut loose. He'd be a guy who could help as well.
Looked at Dahl but beyond his bad defense, it looks like he has pretty big home/road splits so outside of Colorado he's not been much offensively either.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 2, 2020 23:56:37 GMT -5
All the non tender guys seem to fit under one profile with the exception of a couple (at least position player wise)-
Bad defensively with a questionable bat (hit tool wise)- Schwarber, Rasrio, Mazara, Duval, Franco, Jose Martinez. They all fit under this profile.
Teams are valuing defense these days bigtime.
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Post by jdb on Dec 3, 2020 7:46:09 GMT -5
Could Dahl’s metrics be skewed by the big home park?
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Post by manfred on Dec 3, 2020 11:24:55 GMT -5
I’d like to see the Sox sign Archie Bradley. That is all.
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Post by billyw on Dec 3, 2020 12:39:53 GMT -5
I don't believe we need Dahl anywhere near as bad as we need Archie Bradley. I would also take a flyer on Ryan Stanek and Ryan Tapera.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 3, 2020 12:39:58 GMT -5
I would like Bradley and then take a flier on Middleton or Stanek
Not really all that interested in the positional guys
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Post by billyw on Dec 3, 2020 13:01:37 GMT -5
I would also take Hanser Alberto as a super sub with plenty of AB's at 2nd base. I don't believe we should lay all of our eggs in the Christian Arroyo basket.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 3, 2020 13:02:34 GMT -5
All the non tender guys seem to fit under one profile with the exception of a couple (at least position player wise)- Bad defensively with a questionable bat (hit tool wise)- Schwarber, Rasrio, Mazara, Duval, Franco, Jose Martinez. They all fit under this profile. Teams are valuing defense these days bigtime. There were 2 non-tenders each at C, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B, but 14 outfielders. The six biggest names included all 4 LFers, and there were 6 CFers, mostly glove-first guys who hadn't hit as hoped.
LF has been a dumping-ground position for some years now. Last time I looked, probably 15 years ago, there were fewer games started in LF by an identifiable regular than at C.
The other interesting trend: of the 23 relievers, 20 were RHP.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Dec 3, 2020 17:13:51 GMT -5
I don’t understand the fascination with Almora. What am I missing? Nothing really fascinating, but he would be a serviceable 4th outfielder. The rest are not a fit for the Sox.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 3, 2020 18:00:18 GMT -5
I don’t understand the fascination with Almora. What am I missing? Nothing really fascinating, but he would be a serviceable 4th outfielder. The rest are not a fit for the Sox. I think it was already mentioned, but he's a true CF. And there are so few available that can hit at all. Almora is really a #4 OF on a really good team. He doesn't walk much, even though he can hit a little, so he has mediocre OBP with below average power. We're talking a .700ish OPS kind of guy. Ideally the Red Sox sign George Springer or bring back JBJ, but giving up a draft pick doesn't make sense at this point and it's hardly a slam dunk that JBJ is coming back - I think it's most likely he leaves, but we'll see. At this point, the Sox are best off re-signing him for a year or two until either Duran or possibly even Jimenez forces the issue. Every other option messes up their OF defense or saddles them with a true CF that would make JBJ look like Willie Mays offensively in comparison. Yeah, you can force Verdugo into CF, but I would anticipate that he won't be very good in CF and whoever goes into RF wouldn't likely be as good as Verdugo is in RF. The loss of Mookie and then JBJ just underscores how many runs those two saved on defense these past several years. They were difference makers, and now they both could be gone with replacements that are very sub-par. The pitching already has its issues so the thought of burdening the pitching with bad outfield defense is frightening - and the idea of bringing in a mediocre Almora looks better than the alternative if you can't bring back JBJ. If they get Almora, all I can say is I hope Duran matures offensively and defensively quickly and he did look like he could be on the right path. I suspect they'll try to bring JBJ back - that's why they didn't trade him I suppose, but I can't say that he won't get a better offer elsewhere or desire a change of scenery.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 3, 2020 22:08:16 GMT -5
Nothing really fascinating, but he would be a serviceable 4th outfielder. The rest are not a fit for the Sox. I think it was already mentioned, but he's a true CF. And there are so few available that can hit at all. Almora is really a #4 OF on a really good team. He doesn't walk much, even though he can hit a little, so he has mediocre OBP with below average power. We're talking a .700ish OPS kind of guy. Ideally the Red Sox sign George Springer or bring back JBJ, but giving up a draft pick doesn't make sense at this point and it's hardly a slam dunk that JBJ is coming back - I think it's most likely he leaves, but we'll see. At this point, the Sox are best off re-signing him for a year or two until either Duran or possibly even Jimenez forces the issue. Every other option messes up their OF defense or saddles them with a true CF that would make JBJ look like Willie Mays offensively in comparison. Yeah, you can force Verdugo into CF, but I would anticipate that he won't be very good in CF and whoever goes into RF wouldn't likely be as good as Verdugo is in RF. The loss of Mookie and then JBJ just underscores how many runs those two saved on defense these past several years. They were difference makers, and now they both could be gone with replacements that are very sub-par. The pitching already has its issues so the thought of burdening the pitching with bad outfield defense is frightening - and the idea of bringing in a mediocre Almora looks better than the alternative if you can't bring back JBJ. If they get Almora, all I can say is I hope Duran matures offensively and defensively quickly and he did look like he could be on the right path. I suspect they'll try to bring JBJ back - that's why they didn't trade him I suppose, but I can't say that he won't get a better offer elsewhere or desire a change of scenery.The only two teams in play here appear to be us and the Astros, looking to replace Springer (who seems likely to end up in Toronto).
JBJ does not desire a change of scenery. If he did, he would have told the Sox that and finished 2020 with a contender.
So, can the Astros outbid us? And they need to outbid us by a non-trivial amount to get JBJ to move to an unfamiliar city and, oh, BTW, join the most hated road team in recent MLB history. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if JBJ has already told Boras to get him the best Red Sox deal he can. You can't buy happiness with an extra $1M.
The Astros have less deep pockets, and their farm system is considered stronger, so they're the team that blinks first and decides to go the trade route. Wherever Springer signs, he renders a decent CF available as trade bait--in the case of the Jays, Randall Grichuck (much better than his bWAR, according to Statcast's defensive numbers).
I'd put the odds of re-signing him at 95%. I would also put the odds of our saying, "geeze, JBJ got that much?" at 95%.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 3, 2020 23:20:10 GMT -5
I think it was already mentioned, but he's a true CF. And there are so few available that can hit at all. Almora is really a #4 OF on a really good team. He doesn't walk much, even though he can hit a little, so he has mediocre OBP with below average power. We're talking a .700ish OPS kind of guy. Ideally the Red Sox sign George Springer or bring back JBJ, but giving up a draft pick doesn't make sense at this point and it's hardly a slam dunk that JBJ is coming back - I think it's most likely he leaves, but we'll see. At this point, the Sox are best off re-signing him for a year or two until either Duran or possibly even Jimenez forces the issue. Every other option messes up their OF defense or saddles them with a true CF that would make JBJ look like Willie Mays offensively in comparison. Yeah, you can force Verdugo into CF, but I would anticipate that he won't be very good in CF and whoever goes into RF wouldn't likely be as good as Verdugo is in RF. The loss of Mookie and then JBJ just underscores how many runs those two saved on defense these past several years. They were difference makers, and now they both could be gone with replacements that are very sub-par. The pitching already has its issues so the thought of burdening the pitching with bad outfield defense is frightening - and the idea of bringing in a mediocre Almora looks better than the alternative if you can't bring back JBJ. If they get Almora, all I can say is I hope Duran matures offensively and defensively quickly and he did look like he could be on the right path. I suspect they'll try to bring JBJ back - that's why they didn't trade him I suppose, but I can't say that he won't get a better offer elsewhere or desire a change of scenery.The only two teams in play here appear to be us and the Astros, looking to replace Springer (who seems likely to end up in Toronto). JBJ does not desire a change of scenery. If he did, he would have told the Sox that and finished 2020 with a contender. So, can the Astros outbid us? And they need to outbid us by a non-trivial amount to get JBJ to move to an unfamiliar city and, oh, BTW, join the most hated road team in recent MLB history. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if JBJ has already told Boras to get him the best Red Sox deal he can. You can't buy happiness with an extra $1M.
The Astros have less deep pockets, and their farm system is considered stronger, so they're the team that blinks first and decides to go the trade route. Wherever Springer signs, he renders a decent CF available as trade bait--in the case of the Jays, Randall Grichuck (much better than his bWAR, according to Statcast's defensive numbers).
I'd put the odds of re-signing him at 95%. I would also put the odds of our saying, "geeze, JBJ got that much?" at 95%.
Or Bloom looked around, didn't see any viable CFs for 2021 and figured if he traded JBJ it would be that much harder to try and re-sign him, but I doubt JBJ told him he'd stick around - more likely he was non-commital. I think Bloom figured he'd have no chance at all to re-sign him if he traded him and figured that a chance to re-sign him outweighed whatever return he was going to get for him. JBJ wasn't exactly tearing it up at the deadline, so the return might not have been that great. He got really hot after the deadline. JBJ is going to weigh his options and he has multiple options, whether it's Houston, Toronto, the Mets, or even the Cubs. I'd say it's more like 1 out 3 he returns to Boston, rather than the 95% you figure. I'm sure the Red Sox are going to try to sign him, but JBJ might want to go elsewhere whether he gets more money or thinks that the other team he'd go to would be more competitive in 2021, whether you agree with that statement or not.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 8, 2020 10:13:18 GMT -5
One potential interesting non-tender, Matt Wisler, just signed with the Giants.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 11, 2020 18:34:41 GMT -5
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