Sugano pursuit thread

I doubt the Red Sox budge off of whatever number they have in mind. If they're not alone in that he'll wind up in Japan, but being 32 by then he better have a strong healthy season to get a good annual rate, because he won't get that extra year back from a US team. Doubt he'd get a 4 year deal.

I think the Red Sox are looking for a solid pitcher to lock up for 2 - 3 years and an upside guy to take a gamble on at a good rate. So if not Sugano I would get Odirizzi and Kluber fit those descriptions.

I said it the other day and I’m tellin ya- between the US covid situation and a contract not meeting his liking I have a feeling there’s a really good chance he ends up in Yomiuri on that 4 yr/3 opt out deal. I believe I read somewhere that during a press conference or interview he said something along the lines of “not wanting to make any regrets” when asked about the covid situation here

That’s a legitimate factor Asian players will consider at this moment. I’m sure if he gets his money that will motivate him but he may honestly just say “what’s the point?” If he’s not going to get something that meets his liking

Damn, can't say I'm surprised but a little disappointed. Guess it all depends on what he's asking for a contract.

This is just reporting on the report already copied above by vermontsox that the Red Sox AND THE GIANTS "aren't expected to pay Sugano what he desires." I'm going to guess that what you're posting comes from an aggregator of some sort? This is why we encourage links. You can see in the text you pasted that it's just reporting the Passan report.

It's not saying he's not signing with the Red Sox and they're out. It's saying that the teams in it seemingly are out or not up to what his price is yet. Deadlines have a funny way of narrowing distance. We'll see if that happens.

True, but I don't think Sugano would risk walking away from $51 million or dealing with public disappointment the way Daisuke would have if he had left for Japan. I think his departure from the US would have cost his team $60 million in posting fees and would have constituted a bad look, which is a consideration in Japan.

In this case, the money Sugano wants is probably well short, the posting fee is a lot less, and he might actually have a better offer waiting for him in Japan knowing he can opt out and come back to the US when the money might be more free flowing (might not be 2022 if there is a strike).

Yes, the timing is suspicious that now the airtight Red Sox FO has a leak in that Odirizzi is somebody they seriously want, but I honestly think it's a case of the Red Sox' Plan A was to sign Sugano for their price, and if he wasn't going to sign for it, then move on to Plan B, which is Jake Odirizzi, who I'm sure Bloom is quite comfortable with. I don't know if the Sox see a huge dropoff from Plan A to Plan B in their estimation.

I don't foresee the Red Sox raising their offer to Sugano. As it is, I was under the impression if there was an agreement it had to happen by Tuesday or early Wednesday even though the posting deadline is Thursday.

I'm disappointed because although Odirizzi is a known commodity, a guy with a career ERA+ of 105 which is 5% better than average, I think Sugano had a chance of being a good deal better than that, but is just as risky as being a guy who could be a lot worse than that. Still, I would have liked to have seen the Red Sox take the chance on Sugano.

I do suspect that Sugano will wind up back in Japan and that the Sox will sign Odirizzi. That alone isn't enough to make the Red Sox starting staff good enough. I think if the Sox can land Kluber and he is most of what he was in Cleveland, then you have improved your staff greatly between he and Odirizzi. I'm treating 2021 like you're getting uncertainty from E-Rod and as if Sale won't be much of a contributor, that he'll be feeling his way back and not the Chris Sale we were used to - at least not this season.

Look, I don't want to be mean here, but you just need to read the article to see that it's just an article linking to the Passan story. It's not even all that accurate a depiction of the report.

$56MM/4 = $14MM/yr assuming 7MM/WAR he would need to average WAR = 2 over the length of the contract to break even. I would think there is a high probability he could do that. Its a bit more than we had been hearing for him but it looks way better than a multi-year contract for Odorizzi.

The ceiling of Sugano maybe looks better than Odorizzi but for all we know Sugano could struggle in the majors. We know Odorizzi is an above average major league caliber starter. I'd much rather have Odorizzi for the rumored 3 year $36 million vs Sugano on the rumored 4 years $56 million plus posting fee. The fact nobody has offered Odorizzi his desired amount yet leads me to believe he's going to have to settle for less than the $36 as well but we'll see on that.

The fact that the deadline is in 4 hours and we haven't heard anything yet makes me think he's going back to Japan.

Sugano is 5 months older than Odorizzi.

Sugano has a career ERA of 2.34. His ERA has been below 2.15 five of the last six years. In 2019, the one year he was above 2.15 he pitched 136 innings despite back and hip issues and put up a 3.89 ERA.

Odorizzi has a career ERA of 3.92 and his best year was 3.35. Last year he pitched only 13 innings and was terrible.

If Sugano's ERA were to jump by a full point he would still be substantially better than Odorizzi.

Odorizzi for one year is fine but he's not the type of guy you want to lock up to a multi-year contract.

I don't think you can just take NPB numbers and add a run. Kikuchi's ERA went up like 2-2.5 runs. Nevermind the fact that ERA isn't really the best statistic to be using.

Agreed, Japan and Korea stats absolutely do not translate to the USA. Japanese great Matsuzaka cost $102 million (with posting fee) for 2 ok years out of six. IMO $102 million could have gotten better production and more consistency or even a couple better pitchers than Matsuzaka. That much bought a lot more 13 years ago:
2007 - 2012
W/L. 50 - 37
ERA. 4.52
IN. 111.3 per year
SO. 101.5 per year
BB. 53.5 per year
WHIP. 1.42 per year

Signing a MLB player you are using an apples to apples comparison, and a shorter contract is obviously less risk of having pay a players way out of town.