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2021 Lineup / Batting Order
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 15, 2021 16:39:23 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2021 19:37:20 GMT -5
It's kind of funny that Verdugo doesn't have the most games played at any position right now - he's not even within 3 at any of the OF positions! - and he's one of their core hitters. As one of the Keepers of the Org Page who gets kind of anal about getting lineups exact, it makes me want to scream a little. I'd add to the above analysis though that 2 of the Hernandez CF/Verdugo RF lineups against RHP were while Renfroe was hurt and one was in the doubleheader yesterday, when they'd be more likely to work guys in, so I think I'd say against RHP it's actually kind of a clear Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe OF against RHP, but Cora is maybe more likely to work in a bench guy against a RHP than against a LHP? It's just funny that I'd probably still list the starting lineup against RHP as Hernandez at 2B and Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe from left-to-right, but they've actually run that lineup out there just once all year. EDIT: More stuff. Renfroe has started 4 of 6 vs. RHP for which he's been healthy. Arroyo just 4 of 9. Gonzalez has started 10 of the 13 games. Taking out the games Renfroe was hurt, it's 7 of 10. JDM's one-game IL stint winds up not really mattering because Vazquez DH'ed when he otherwise probably sits. In 13 games they've used 12 defensive lineups. Has any team in MLB history ever had 11 players start a majority of games? Of course, that's just the AL since 1983.
What I would do with the Org listing for the time being is put Verdugo as "OF" and then Franchy, Kiké, and Renfroe as the starters L to R. Marwin playing more often that not isn't that rare for a utility guy who can take turns giving everybody a day off. That doesn't make him a regular. But all four outfielders are
Assuming 1/3 of opposing starters are LHP, Kiké need to start just 1/4 of the games vs. RHP to end up splitting CF equally with Verdugo. It's been 1/3 so far when Renfroe is healthy, so it looks like he's likely to remain the majority CF ... until Duran arrives.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 15, 2021 19:43:08 GMT -5
I haven’t read much of this thread so maybe someone has already said it, but I’d be open to experimenting with Arroyo at lead off.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 16, 2021 9:24:59 GMT -5
It's kind of funny that Verdugo doesn't have the most games played at any position right now - he's not even within 3 at any of the OF positions! - and he's one of their core hitters. As one of the Keepers of the Org Page who gets kind of anal about getting lineups exact, it makes me want to scream a little. I'd add to the above analysis though that 2 of the Hernandez CF/Verdugo RF lineups against RHP were while Renfroe was hurt and one was in the doubleheader yesterday, when they'd be more likely to work guys in, so I think I'd say against RHP it's actually kind of a clear Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe OF against RHP, but Cora is maybe more likely to work in a bench guy against a RHP than against a LHP? It's just funny that I'd probably still list the starting lineup against RHP as Hernandez at 2B and Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe from left-to-right, but they've actually run that lineup out there just once all year. EDIT: More stuff. Renfroe has started 4 of 6 vs. RHP for which he's been healthy. Arroyo just 4 of 9. Gonzalez has started 10 of the 13 games. Taking out the games Renfroe was hurt, it's 7 of 10. JDM's one-game IL stint winds up not really mattering because Vazquez DH'ed when he otherwise probably sits. In 13 games they've used 12 defensive lineups. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2008.shtmlThis is always one of my favorite B-Ref oddities. Like Jacoby Ellsbury, the 145-game, 609 plate appearance, 3.0 WAR "backup" outfielder in 2008.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 9:29:44 GMT -5
I havenât read much of this thread so maybe someone has already said it, but Iâd be open to experimenting with Arroyo at lead off. I had the same thought. If given a chance, can Arroyo become an everyday player this season? I don't think he's walked as of yet in about 30 something plate appearances but I could be wrong. That said, if Kiké doesn't hit and Arroyo does, I'd be open to it. I'd prefer Verdugo but Cora seems intent on keeping him in the #2 spot and given the structure of his lineup I think he wants a RH batter leading off. Even if Duran gets the call down the road I think Cora will bat him 9th. By June I can see this lineup against righties: Arroyo, 2b Verdugo, RF Martinez, DH Bogaerts, SS Devers, 3b Vazquez, C Cordero, LF Dalbec, 1b Duran, CF It contains the L/R splitups he likes to use in the lineup.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 16, 2021 12:01:05 GMT -5
It's kind of funny that Verdugo doesn't have the most games played at any position right now - he's not even within 3 at any of the OF positions! - and he's one of their core hitters. As one of the Keepers of the Org Page who gets kind of anal about getting lineups exact, it makes me want to scream a little. I'd add to the above analysis though that 2 of the Hernandez CF/Verdugo RF lineups against RHP were while Renfroe was hurt and one was in the doubleheader yesterday, when they'd be more likely to work guys in, so I think I'd say against RHP it's actually kind of a clear Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe OF against RHP, but Cora is maybe more likely to work in a bench guy against a RHP than against a LHP? It's just funny that I'd probably still list the starting lineup against RHP as Hernandez at 2B and Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe from left-to-right, but they've actually run that lineup out there just once all year. EDIT: More stuff. Renfroe has started 4 of 6 vs. RHP for which he's been healthy. Arroyo just 4 of 9. Gonzalez has started 10 of the 13 games. Taking out the games Renfroe was hurt, it's 7 of 10. JDM's one-game IL stint winds up not really mattering because Vazquez DH'ed when he otherwise probably sits. In 13 games they've used 12 defensive lineups. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2008.shtmlThis is always one of my favorite B-Ref oddities. Like Jacoby Ellsbury, the 145-game, 609 plate appearance, 3.0 WAR "backup" outfielder in 2008. I had totally forgotten that. Manny / Bay started 114 games in LF, Coco 98 in CF, Drew 105 in RF. Ellsbury started 129 games, but 63 in CF, 36 in LF, and 30 in RF. Marl Kotsay started 16 G in RF, Brandon Moss 8 each in LF and RF, random guys another 6.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 16, 2021 12:30:33 GMT -5
So far, the first batter of the game is .385 / .385 / .463. That's in a 3-way tie for 7th, and is 58% better than MLB average.
We're 3rd in MLB in wRC+, but you can't compare ranks here. We're 11th in OPS of first batter of game compared to overall (12% better), but that's probably 10th if you compare the NL club results to just their non-pitchers.
So this extra plate appearance by the leadoff hitters has been better than team average, and the PA lost thereby, on average, is the team average. It's working so far, but the sample size is small enough that it's barely predictive.
The Rays (Tsutsugo 7, Meadows 4, Diaz 2) are 0/12, BB, worst in MLB. The Jays (Marcus Semien) are 1/13, second worst; Semien has led off 326 times in his career and has a 68 tOPS (32% worse than all his other PA). He's the poster child for a guy who can't do this specific task. The Yankees (LeMahieu 11, Hicks 1) are 2/12, tied with the Angels for 4th worst. DJ has been good at this in his career and is hitting well, so that's just a SSS fluke.
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 23, 2021 23:35:39 GMT -5
Iâm liking Kiké. Great player and team guy. But is he going to have enough OBA to stay at leadoff?? At what point does Cora at least think about dropping Hernandez down in the lineup.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 27, 2021 0:15:33 GMT -5
So far, the first batter of the game is .385 / .385 / .463. That's in a 3-way tie for 7th, and is 58% better than MLB average.
We're 3rd in MLB in wRC+, but you can't compare ranks here. We're 11th in OPS of first batter of game compared to overall (12% better), but that's probably 10th if you compare the NL club results to just their non-pitchers.
So this extra plate appearance by the leadoff hitters has been better than team average, and the PA lost thereby, on average, is the team average. It's working so far, but the sample size is small enough that it's barely predictive.
It's still working: the Sox leading off the game are .348 / .348 / .522, 9th in MLB, and 10th for performance relative to team.
If you look at just the AL, it's even rosier: the Sox are second to the O's in both measures. I can't explain why the NL so dominates this!
Note that with JDM's resurgence, the ideal 1-4 would be Verdugo, JDM, Bogaerts, Devers, which is of course the actual 2 through 5. And the first PA of the game has been better than team average. So you really, really have to think of this lineup as Kiké hitting 9th, but because he excels at hitting the opposing pitcher right out of the gate, they start the game with him. This is a a terrific strategy if your credible leadoff guys, in this case Verdugo and Bogaerts, are not comfortable as the first batter in the game.
So while it's true that Kiké has been a league-average hitter overall, and that your leadoff hitter ordinarily needs to be a lot better than that, Kiké has been a lot better than that in his first PA: .350 / .350 / .500. Not a lot of luck involved, either: the expected line is .335 / .490, with an xwOBA of .349 vs. actual .369. MLB average has been .328 and .308 respectively.
And the first PA is all that counts here. Thereafter, he functions a decent #9 hitter before the Big Four that have provided most of the offense.
So you can't look at his overall numbers. As long as his first PA of the game is better than the team overall, and better than MLB average, it's a winning strategy.
(Arroyo, BTW, is 1/3, 2B, a cheapo against Glasnow.)
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 27, 2021 3:13:16 GMT -5
Awesome insight Eric. Thanks. And with Kikéâs flair and Coraâs support, this might continue. His versatility iseems merely a valuable tool for Cora at this point, another reason this team is exceeding expectations.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 27, 2021 9:02:24 GMT -5
So far, the first batter of the game is .385 / .385 / .463. That's in a 3-way tie for 7th, and is 58% better than MLB average.
We're 3rd in MLB in wRC+, but you can't compare ranks here. We're 11th in OPS of first batter of game compared to overall (12% better), but that's probably 10th if you compare the NL club results to just their non-pitchers.
So this extra plate appearance by the leadoff hitters has been better than team average, and the PA lost thereby, on average, is the team average. It's working so far, but the sample size is small enough that it's barely predictive.
It's still working: the Sox leading off the game are .348 / .348 / .522, 9th in MLB, and 10th for performance relative to team.
If you look at just the AL, it's even rosier: the Sox are second to the O's in both measures. I can't explain why the NL so dominates this!
Note that with JDM's resurgence, the ideal 1-4 would be Verdugo, JDM, Bogaerts, Devers, which is of course the actual 2 through 5. And the first PA of the game has been better than team average. So you really, really have to think of this lineup as Kiké hitting 9th, but because he excels at hitting the opposing pitcher right out of the gate, they start the game with him. This is a a terrific strategy if your credible leadoff guys, in this case Verdugo and Bogaerts, are not comfortable as the first batter in the game.
So while it's true that Kiké has been a league-average hitter overall, and that your leadoff hitter ordinarily needs to be a lot better than that, Kiké has been a lot better than that in his first PA: .350 / .350 / .500. Not a lot of luck involved, either: the expected line is .335 / .490, with an xwOBA of .349 vs. actual .369. MLB average has been .328 and .308 respectively.
And the first PA is all that counts here. Thereafter, he functions a decent #9 hitter before the Big Four that have provided most of the offense.
So you can't look at his overall numbers. As long as his first PA of the game is better than the team overall, and better than MLB average, it's a winning strategy.
(Arroyo, BTW, is 1/3, 2B, a cheapo against Glasnow.)
In other words, he's gone 7/20 with 0 walks. The BA is nice but in a tiny sample, and the walk rate of diddley squat is not exactly what you want in your leadoff guy. And the walk rate is actually the slightly more meaningful number, since that stat becomes statistically meaningful at 200 PAs, whereas for batting average it's more like 1000 PAs.
I like the theory, but it's hard to think of what this special power that he has could be that lets him do especially well leading off games; it's even harder to believe it would be enough to overcome his career .288 OBP vs. righties.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 27, 2021 9:48:35 GMT -5
It's still working: the Sox leading off the game are .348 / .348 / .522, 9th in MLB, and 10th for performance relative to team.
If you look at just the AL, it's even rosier: the Sox are second to the O's in both measures. I can't explain why the NL so dominates this!
Note that with JDM's resurgence, the ideal 1-4 would be Verdugo, JDM, Bogaerts, Devers, which is of course the actual 2 through 5. And the first PA of the game has been better than team average. So you really, really have to think of this lineup as Kiké hitting 9th, but because he excels at hitting the opposing pitcher right out of the gate, they start the game with him. This is a a terrific strategy if your credible leadoff guys, in this case Verdugo and Bogaerts, are not comfortable as the first batter in the game.
So while it's true that Kiké has been a league-average hitter overall, and that your leadoff hitter ordinarily needs to be a lot better than that, Kiké has been a lot better than that in his first PA: .350 / .350 / .500. Not a lot of luck involved, either: the expected line is .335 / .490, with an xwOBA of .349 vs. actual .369. MLB average has been .328 and .308 respectively.
And the first PA is all that counts here. Thereafter, he functions a decent #9 hitter before the Big Four that have provided most of the offense.
So you can't look at his overall numbers. As long as his first PA of the game is better than the team overall, and better than MLB average, it's a winning strategy.
(Arroyo, BTW, is 1/3, 2B, a cheapo against Glasnow.)
In other words, he's gone 7/20 with 0 walks. The BA is nice but in a tiny sample, and the walk rate of diddley squat is not exactly what you want in your leadoff guy. And the walk rate is actually the slightly more meaningful number, since that stat becomes statistically meaningful at 200 PAs, whereas for batting average it's more like 1000 PAs.
I like the theory, but it's hard to think of what this special power that he has could be that lets him do especially well leading off games; it's even harder to believe it would be enough to overcome his career .288 OBP vs. righties.
Leading off the game in 2019, leadoff hitters struck out 12.6% more often than in their subsequent PA's, walked 22.4% less often (excluding later IBB's), homered 20.5% more often once they made contact, and had a 6.3% lower BABIP. All of those differences will be statistically significant given sufficient sample sizes (if anyone cares, I'll do the chi-square tests).
But I don't have to quote those figures for folks to know that the starting pitcher treats the first batter of the game uniquely. Nobody wants to walk the leadoff hitter of the game, so they pound the strike zone and the splits just cited ensue. And that means they stay away at least a bit from pitches they command less well. They become more predictable. The special power is simply guessing better.
Because of the changed pitching approach, the thing to do leading off the game, to the extent that you're focused on any given outcome, is to hit the ball really hard and maybe go yard. It's decidedly not to try to walk. It's actually completely opposite the approach you want to take if you're hitting (later in the game) before Mike Trout or J.D. Martinez.
Ideally you have a guy who can hunt too-hittable pitches in the zone his first time up, and then subsequently take a very different approach and maximize OBP, sacrificing SA. But that skill set -- call it Ricky -- is tough to come by. If you don't have a Ricky, the smart thing to do is to push the 1 through 4 hitters down a slot and find a guy who has the specific skill of hunting hittable pitches in the zone by guessing against an altered and partially restricted pitch repertoire.
They are pioneers here. If Kiké can sustain this (and he has, over the games since I last ran the numbers), you'll see teams start to copy it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 27, 2021 10:00:48 GMT -5
In other words, he's gone 7/20 with 0 walks. The BA is nice but in a tiny sample, and the walk rate of diddley squat is not exactly what you want in your leadoff guy. And the walk rate is actually the slightly more meaningful number, since that stat becomes statistically meaningful at 200 PAs, whereas for batting average it's more like 1000 PAs. I like the theory, but it's hard to think of what this special power that he has could be that lets him do especially well leading off games; it's even harder to believe it would be enough to overcome his career .288 OBP vs. righties.
Leading off the game in 2019, leadoff hitters struck out 12.6% more often than in their subsequent PA's, walked 22.4% less often (excluding later IBB's), homered 20.5% more often once they made contact, and had a 6.3% lower BABIP. All of those differences will be statistically significant given sufficient sample sizes (if anyone cares, I'll do the chi-square tests).
But I don't have to quote those figures for folks to know that the starting pitcher treats the first batter of the game uniquely. Nobody wants to walk the leadoff hitter of the game, so they pound the strike zone and the splits just cited ensue. And that means they stay away at least a bit from pitches they command less well. They become more predictable. The special power is simply guessing better. Because of the changed pitching approach, the thing to do leading off the game, to the extent that you're focused on any given outcome, is to hit the ball really hard and maybe go yard. It's decidedly not to try to walk. It's actually completely opposite the approach you want to take if you're hitting (later in the game) before Mike Trout or J.D. Martinez. Ideally you have a guy who can hunt too-hittable pitches in the zone his first time up, and then subsequently take a very different approach and maximize OBP, sacrificing SA. But that skill set -- call it Ricky -- is tough to come by. If you don't have a Ricky, the smart thing to do is to push the 1 through 4 hitters down a slot and find a guy who has the specific skill of hunting hittable pitches in the zone by guessing against an altered and partially restricted pitch repertoire. They are pioneers here. If Kiké can sustain this (and he has, over the games since I last ran the numbers), you'll see teams start to copy it.
So you're saying this is enough to offset the fact that a very mediocre offensive player is going to get more plate appearances than everybody else in the lineup is a good thing that other teams will want to copy as opposed to having a high OBP guy leading off? If the Red Sox had a Wade Boggs/Kenny Lofton/Brett Butler type to lead off, I would hate to think of Kiké Hernandez leading off. Hell, if Ellsbury circa 2007 - 2013 was an option I'd easily prefer Ellsbury. Hernandez is leading off because they don't have a glaringly great option and for some reason Cora doesn't want to bat Verdugo lead off. I think a lot of the time the first three or four batters in the lineup get 5 plate appearances per game and the remaining batters get 4. Kiké Hernandez is not a guy I want to see getting the extra ABs. I'm sure you'll rip my post to shreds but I don't really think that first AB where he's supposedly going to be a superstar will hold up with more plate appearances and I don't think the remaining plate appearances he takes will make it worth the extra plate appearances. If you wanted to make the argument that Kiké Hernandez against lefties leading off is a good idea, I wouldn't argue that too much, but against righties....no thanks. Forget leading off..I don't think the guy should even be playing every day, but that is a different argument.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 27, 2021 11:41:46 GMT -5
Leading off the game in 2019, leadoff hitters struck out 12.6% more often than in their subsequent PA's, walked 22.4% less often (excluding later IBB's), homered 20.5% more often once they made contact, and had a 6.3% lower BABIP. All of those differences will be statistically significant given sufficient sample sizes (if anyone cares, I'll do the chi-square tests).
But I don't have to quote those figures for folks to know that the starting pitcher treats the first batter of the game uniquely. Nobody wants to walk the leadoff hitter of the game, so they pound the strike zone and the splits just cited ensue. And that means they stay away at least a bit from pitches they command less well. They become more predictable. The special power is simply guessing better. Because of the changed pitching approach, the thing to do leading off the game, to the extent that you're focused on any given outcome, is to hit the ball really hard and maybe go yard. It's decidedly not to try to walk. It's actually completely opposite the approach you want to take if you're hitting (later in the game) before Mike Trout or J.D. Martinez. Ideally you have a guy who can hunt too-hittable pitches in the zone his first time up, and then subsequently take a very different approach and maximize OBP, sacrificing SA. But that skill set -- call it Ricky -- is tough to come by. If you don't have a Ricky, the smart thing to do is to push the 1 through 4 hitters down a slot and find a guy who has the specific skill of hunting hittable pitches in the zone by guessing against an altered and partially restricted pitch repertoire. They are pioneers here. If Kiké can sustain this (and he has, over the games since I last ran the numbers), you'll see teams start to copy it.
So you're saying this is enough to offset the fact that a very mediocre offensive player is going to get more plate appearances than everybody else in the lineup is a good thing that other teams will want to copy as opposed to having a high OBP guy leading off? If the Red Sox had a Wade Boggs/Kenny Lofton/Brett Butler type to lead off, I would hate to think of Kiké Hernandez leading off. Hell, if Ellsbury circa 2007 - 2013 was an option I'd easily prefer Ellsbury. Hernandez is leading off because they don't have a glaringly great option and for some reason Cora doesn't want to bat Verdugo lead off. I think a lot of the time the first three or four batters in the lineup get 5 plate appearances per game and the remaining batters get 4. Kiké Hernandez is not a guy I want to see getting the extra ABs. I'm sure you'll rip my post to shreds but I don't really think that first AB where he's supposedly going to be a superstar will hold up with more plate appearances and I don't think the remaining plate appearances he takes will make it worth the extra plate appearances. If you wanted to make the argument that Kiké Hernandez against lefties leading off is a good idea, I wouldn't argue that too much, but against righties....no thanks. Forget leading off..I don't think the guy should even be playing every day, but that is a different argument. We know what the extra PA is. It's the first PA of the game. It takes away a PA from one of the other 8 guys at random. If Kiké can outperform the team average in that first PA, it's a net win. Again, after that special first PA, where (so far) he has been unusually good, he's the number nine hitter.
If the Red Sox had a Wade Boggs/Kenny Lofton/Brett Butler type to lead off, I would hate to think of Kiké Hernandez leading off. Hell, if Ellsbury circa 2007 - 2013 was an option I'd easily prefer Ellsbury.
Why not just say Ricky Henderson? THEY DON'T. I've already said that the reason they're doing what they're doing is that they don't have a hitter like that.
Hernandez is leading off because they don't have a glaringly great option and for some reason Cora doesn't want to bat Verdugo lead off.
Gee, scratching my head here ... some reason ..., some reason ..., oh, gee,, maybe it's because he can't do it. That would be the simplest one, wouldn't it?
With the Sox:
.290 / .333 / .387 (33 PA) 1st batter of game
.308 / .370 / .458 (119 PA) batting 1st, after that .322 / .373 / .545 (158 PA) batting anywhere else
Career:
.281 / .324 / .375 (34 PA)
.291 / .349 / .427 (129 PA)
.296 / .349 / .480 (635 PA)
I'm sure you'll rip my post to shreds
Got one right!
I don't really think that first AB where he's supposedly going to be a superstar
No, all he needs to be is better than the team average (which will automatically make him better than MLB average in this role). It may cease to be a good idea if they really strengthen the other half of the lineup. If that happens, you ideally find a guy who hit leadoff as well as Kiké, but who is better overall. You'd especially look for a guy who had a higher OBP and would hence be a better table-setter as the virtual #9 hitter. Also, in that case, that guy would occasionally get an extra PA that Kiké would have gotten, after the first.
I don't think the remaining plate appearances he takes will make it worth the extra plate appearances.
Kiké batting first only becomes not worth it if he stops hitting well leading off the game. So I assume that's what you fear will happen.
Well, it is an experiment, and it's an experiment likely based on a huge amount of data analysis, breaking down MLB pitch selection in the first PA of the game, and the results, and then meshing that with Kiké's strengths and weaknesses. It's even clear that they developed a prescription for him in terms of succeeding in this role.
Against all of that, we have your feeling that the experiment will fail.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 27, 2021 11:55:02 GMT -5
Eric, it's 34 PAs. Do you want to put some statistical parameters on your claim that "he can't do it" based on 34 PAs?
But if they really want their best 4 hitters to go 2-5 in the batting order, my solution would be Kiké batting leadoff against lefties and Marwin against righties on the days he's in the lineup.
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Post by manfred on Apr 27, 2021 11:57:21 GMT -5
So you're saying this is enough to offset the fact that a very mediocre offensive player is going to get more plate appearances than everybody else in the lineup is a good thing that other teams will want to copy as opposed to having a high OBP guy leading off? If the Red Sox had a Wade Boggs/Kenny Lofton/Brett Butler type to lead off, I would hate to think of Kiké Hernandez leading off. Hell, if Ellsbury circa 2007 - 2013 was an option I'd easily prefer Ellsbury. Hernandez is leading off because they don't have a glaringly great option and for some reason Cora doesn't want to bat Verdugo lead off. I think a lot of the time the first three or four batters in the lineup get 5 plate appearances per game and the remaining batters get 4. Kiké Hernandez is not a guy I want to see getting the extra ABs. I'm sure you'll rip my post to shreds but I don't really think that first AB where he's supposedly going to be a superstar will hold up with more plate appearances and I don't think the remaining plate appearances he takes will make it worth the extra plate appearances. If you wanted to make the argument that Kiké Hernandez against lefties leading off is a good idea, I wouldn't argue that too much, but against righties....no thanks. Forget leading off..I don't think the guy should even be playing every day, but that is a different argument. We know what the extra PA is. It's the first PA of the game. It takes away a PA from one of the other 8 guys at random. If Kiké can outperform the team average in that first PA, it's a net win. Again, after that special first PA, where (so far) he has been unusually good, he's the number nine hitter.
If the Red Sox had a Wade Boggs/Kenny Lofton/Brett Butler type to lead off, I would hate to think of Kiké Hernandez leading off. Hell, if Ellsbury circa 2007 - 2013 was an option I'd easily prefer Ellsbury.
Why not just say Ricky Henderson? THEY DON'T. I've already said that the reason they're doing what they're doing is that they don't have a hitter like that.
Hernandez is leading off because they don't have a glaringly great option and for some reason Cora doesn't want to bat Verdugo lead off.
Gee, scratching my head here ... some reason ..., some reason ..., oh, gee,, maybe it's because he can't do it. That would be the simplest one, wouldn't it?
With the Sox:
.290 / .333 / .387 (33 PA) 1st batter of game
.308 / .370 / .458 (119 PA) batting 1st, after that .322 / .373 / .545 (158 PA) batting anywhere else
Career:
.281 / .324 / .375 (34 PA)
.291 / .349 / .427 (129 PA)
.296 / .349 / .480 (635 PA)
I'm sure you'll rip my post to shreds
Got one right!
I don't really think that first AB where he's supposedly going to be a superstar
No, all he needs to be is better than the team average (which will automatically make him better than MLB average in this role). It may cease to be a good idea if they really strengthen the other half of the lineup. If that happens, you ideally find a guy who hit leadoff as well as Kiké, but who is better overall. You'd especially look for a guy who had a higher OBP and would hence be a better table-setter as the virtual #9 hitter. Also, in that case, that guy would occasionally get an extra PA that Kiké would have gotten, after the first.
I don't think the remaining plate appearances he takes will make it worth the extra plate appearances.
Kiké batting first only becomes not worth it if he stops hitting well leading off the game. So I assume that's what you fear will happen.
Well, it is an experiment, and it's an experiment likely based on a huge amount of data analysis, breaking down MLB pitch selection in the first PA of the game, and the results, and then meshing that with Kiké's strengths and weaknesses. It's even clear that they developed a prescription for him in terms of succeeding in this role.
Against all of that, we have your feeling that the experiment will fail.
I mostly agree with Eric, but... you say they do it because they don’t have Rickey, but you also suggest this is the product of deep analysis etc. I grant an in-between position: given *what they have*, analysis has Kiké as the best option. I’d say the eye test supports this. Really Verdugo is the only other option — but he also seems ideal at 2nd. But this also seems like an area that might have been given greater consideration in the off-season. There is a specter haunting the Red Sox... low OBP, which you first pointed out, I think, over the winter. Anyway, I think Kiké has been an answer this year, not a question. But I bet even Cora and Bloom would say they’d rather they had a more traditional leadoff guy — and I suspect data still says you’d rather have a guy who walks, not only because being on base is good, but making the pitcher reveal what his stuff is that day is one of the main tasks in the first couple of at bats.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 27, 2021 12:05:16 GMT -5
Gee, now let me scratch my head for a minute....Eric, you KNOW that Verdugo CAN'T bat leadoff. How do you know this? Do you possess some sort of ESP the rest of us don't have? Does Verdugo break into hives if Cora puts him first on a lineup card? Please do tell.
And as far as why I think the experiment will fail, to paraphrase the rock group, Boston, it's more than a feeling.
We have a long track record of Hernandez being mediocre against right handed pitching to put it kindly. Why won't he revert to that? You think pitchers are too stupid to figure out that if Kiké goes up looking to hack in his first AB, that they don't necessarily have to throw him a quality strike down the middle, that he could get himself out? So yeah, I do think that first AB in the first inning will eventually fall toward what he has done historically, but I know you love yourself them small sample sizes.
Note I did say I wouldn't push back against him leading off against lefties. I can see justification for that.
My overarching point is that I don't think teams are going to forego guys that have higher OBP in the leadoff spot to put guys in the leadoff spot who can't hit righties and don't get on base. Your premise is that he will have 150 plate appearances leading off the game that will make it worth it. I'm very doubtful of that. I think when the larger sample size comes through it won't be that different from the rest of his ABs.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2021 2:02:41 GMT -5
Gee, now let me scratch my head for a minute....Eric, you KNOW that Verdugo CAN'T bat leadoff. How do you know this? Do you possess some sort of ESP the rest of us don't have? Does Verdugo break into hives if Cora puts him first on a lineup card? Please do tell. And as far as why I think the experiment will fail, to paraphrase the rock group, Boston, it's more than a feeling. We have a long track record of Hernandez being mediocre against right handed pitching to put it kindly. Why won't he revert to that? You think pitchers are too stupid to figure out that if Kiké goes up looking to hack in his first AB, that they don't necessarily have to throw him a quality strike down the middle, that he could get himself out? So yeah, I do think that first AB in the first inning will eventually fall toward what he has done historically, but I know you love yourself them small sample sizes. Note I did say I wouldn't push back against him leading off against lefties. I can see justification for that. My overarching point is that I don't think teams are going to forego guys that have higher OBP in the leadoff spot to put guys in the leadoff spot who can't hit righties and don't get on base. Your premise is that he will have 150 plate appearances leading off the game that will make it worth it. I'm very doubtful of that. I think when the larger sample size comes through it won't be that different from the rest of his ABs. "He can't do it" is shorthand for "they believe he can't do it." And we know that, because they're not having him do it. And that makes sense, because his splits doing it are relatively awful.
You're actually arguing that the Red Sox are making a mistake not having Verdugo hit leadoff, even though he's had a 720 OPS as the first batter of the game and a 918 OPS when not hitting leadoff for them, and they almost literally know infinitely more about this than you do.
The rest of your argument completely assumes that Kiké is the same hitter as the guy who put up his career numbers, but they've talked about their belief that he could become a better hitter than those numbers, more of a power hitter, from the day they signed him. And they talked about wanting to try to use him at leadoff if and only if he could learn some things.
Pivetta is not the pitcher who put up his career numbers before we traded for him, Andriese is not the pitcher who put up his career numbers until September of last year, and hopefully Richards is not the pitcher who has been mediocre and erratic the last few years. Arroyo's at least a somewhat better player than the guy they claimed on waivers. Hell, Matt Barnes seems to be a different pitcher. This is how they roll.
And this sort of thing happens with some frequency. Gonzales is not the hitter he was before 2017, JDM is not the hitter you-know-what.
Now, the sample size is small, but so far Kiké is not the same hitter. Here's his plate discipline, six possible outcomes, per 1000 pitches, Red Sox compared to Dodgers:
25 more batted balls outside the zone 20 fewer balls taken 5 fewer swings and misses outside the zone 11 more batted balls within the zone 6 fewer misses within the zone 4 fewer takes within the zone
That's being more aggressive, right? They talked about that. They talked a ton about how they saw him as a power hitter that could be unleashed. What they appear to be doing here is beautifully counter-intuitive ... instead of getting him to walk more in this stage (he has said that doing so is the next thing to learn), they are unleashing him to be himself.
Is it working? Well, his Barrel % is up 43%, from .061 to .087. His expected Iso on balls within the zone is up 56.5%, from .209 to .327. The latter ranks 58th of 263 players; the former would rank 160th.
Now, compared to the Dodgers, his expected wOBA is up modestly, from .308 to .317, in large part because he is walking less (although he's actually reversed a steep declining trend from 2017 to 2020). It's a work in progress. But there are positive signs, and among them, in the SSSS (first S is for "Silly"), there's the success with using the agression against the pitcher who is trying not to walk the leadoff hitter of the game. The point is that they have announced to the world that they are trying to change him as a hitter, for the better, and there's plenty of evidence that he has changed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2021 2:30:35 GMT -5
We know what the extra PA is. It's the first PA of the game. It takes away a PA from one of the other 8 guys at random. If Kiké can outperform the team average in that first PA, it's a net win. Again, after that special first PA, where (so far) he has been unusually good, he's the number nine hitter.
If the Red Sox had a Wade Boggs/Kenny Lofton/Brett Butler type to lead off, I would hate to think of Kiké Hernandez leading off. Hell, if Ellsbury circa 2007 - 2013 was an option I'd easily prefer Ellsbury.
Why not just say Ricky Henderson? THEY DON'T. I've already said that the reason they're doing what they're doing is that they don't have a hitter like that.
Hernandez is leading off because they don't have a glaringly great option and for some reason Cora doesn't want to bat Verdugo lead off.
Gee, scratching my head here ... some reason ..., some reason ..., oh, gee,, maybe it's because he can't do it. That would be the simplest one, wouldn't it?
With the Sox:
.290 / .333 / .387 (33 PA) 1st batter of game
.308 / .370 / .458 (119 PA) batting 1st, after that .322 / .373 / .545 (158 PA) batting anywhere else
Career:
.281 / .324 / .375 (34 PA)
.291 / .349 / .427 (129 PA)
.296 / .349 / .480 (635 PA)
I'm sure you'll rip my post to shreds
Got one right!
I don't really think that first AB where he's supposedly going to be a superstar
No, all he needs to be is better than the team average (which will automatically make him better than MLB average in this role). It may cease to be a good idea if they really strengthen the other half of the lineup. If that happens, you ideally find a guy who hit leadoff as well as Kiké, but who is better overall. You'd especially look for a guy who had a higher OBP and would hence be a better table-setter as the virtual #9 hitter. Also, in that case, that guy would occasionally get an extra PA that Kiké would have gotten, after the first.
I don't think the remaining plate appearances he takes will make it worth the extra plate appearances.
Kiké batting first only becomes not worth it if he stops hitting well leading off the game. So I assume that's what you fear will happen.
Well, it is an experiment, and it's an experiment likely based on a huge amount of data analysis, breaking down MLB pitch selection in the first PA of the game, and the results, and then meshing that with Kiké's strengths and weaknesses. It's even clear that they developed a prescription for him in terms of succeeding in this role.
Against all of that, we have your feeling that the experiment will fail.
I mostly agree with Eric, but... you say they do it because they don’t have Rickey, but you also suggest this is the product of deep analysis etc. I grant an in-between position: given *what they have*, analysis has Kiké as the best option. I’d say the eye test supports this. Really Verdugo is the only other option — but he also seems ideal at 2nd. But this also seems like an area that might have been given greater consideration in the off-season. There is a specter haunting the Red Sox... low OBP, which you first pointed out, I think, over the winter. Anyway, I think Kiké has been an answer this year, not a question. But I bet even Cora and Bloom would say they’d rather they had a more traditional leadoff guy — and I suspect data still says you’d rather have a guy who walks, not only because being on base is good, but making the pitcher reveal what his stuff is that day is one of the main tasks in the first couple of at bats. I agree with this 100%, except for the part I bolded. I think they gave it plenty of consideration and this was a plan B that was the best they could come up with. The market wasn't offering a lot of OBP, so you bite the bullet and see what clever things you can do anyway.
I have an example of this from my days with the Sox, when we (Jed Hoyer and I) agreed that we couldn't see how the 2006 Sox could win a WS without an ace, and there were no aces to be had. I told him about my research that in the post-season, good pitching indeed beats good hitting, but great hitting a la the Big Red Machine beats everybody. So the path forward was to add another major bat to complement Manny and Papi. He liked that. Then Jed went to the winter meetings and the Marlins unexpectedly shopped Josh Beckett, and he went back to Plan A.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2021 14:49:29 GMT -5
So looking at things with everyone now healthy (and Franchy optioned), it looks like something like this:
vs. RHP:
Hernandez, 2B Verdugo, LF JDM, DH Bogaerts, SS Devers, 3B Vazquez, C Santana, CF Renfroe, RF Dalbec, 1B
vs. LHP: Hernandez, CF Verdugo, LF JDM, DH Bogaerts, SS Devers, 3B Renfroe, RF Dalbec, 1B Vazquez, C Arroyo, 2B
Gonzalez spots in as needed when guys need days off. Plawecki spots Vazquez.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 27, 2021 20:15:54 GMT -5
So looking at things with everyone now healthy (and Franchy optioned), it looks like something like this: vs. RHP: Hernandez, 2B Verdugo, LF JDM, DH Bogaerts, SS Devers, 3B Vazquez, C Santana, CF Renfroe, RF Dalbec, 1B vs. LHP: Hernandez, CF Verdugo, LF JDM, DH Bogaerts, SS Devers, 3B Renfroe, RF Dalbec, 1B Vazquez, C Arroyo, 2B Gonzalez spots in as needed when guys need days off. Plawecki spots Vazquez. If he's going well, wouldn't you want Arroyo replacing Dalbec vs RHP a couple times a week (with Kiké and Santana moving to CF and 1b)? Arroyo hits RHP well.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2021 20:35:22 GMT -5
So looking at things with everyone now healthy (and Franchy optioned), it looks like something like this: vs. RHP: Hernandez, 2B Verdugo, LF JDM, DH Bogaerts, SS Devers, 3B Vazquez, C Santana, CF Renfroe, RF Dalbec, 1B vs. LHP: Hernandez, CF Verdugo, LF JDM, DH Bogaerts, SS Devers, 3B Renfroe, RF Dalbec, 1B Vazquez, C Arroyo, 2B Gonzalez spots in as needed when guys need days off. Plawecki spots Vazquez. If he's going well, wouldn't you want Arroyo replacing Dalbec vs RHP a couple times a week (with Kiké and Santana moving to CF and 1b)? Arroyo hits RHP well. Personally, I don't want to platoon Dalbec yet at all. It's not like he's historically had a bad split or something. They need to find out if he's the guy going forward. They're not going to do that sitting him against a lot of RHP.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 29, 2021 6:35:00 GMT -5
If he's going well, wouldn't you want Arroyo replacing Dalbec vs RHP a couple times a week (with Kiké and Santana moving to CF and 1b)? Arroyo hits RHP well. Personally, I don't want to platoon Dalbec yet at all. It's not like he's historically had a bad split or something. They need to find out if he's the guy going forward. They're not going to do that sitting him against a lot of RHP. Not a platoon but like I said a couple times a week or so: "Danny Santana drew the start on Friday against Miami right-hander Cody Poteet. Santana was preferred to fellow switch-hitter Marwin Gonzalez and Bobby Dalbec, who sat out a potential right-right matchup. “It feels and looks like all of those guys — somehow, some way — are going to play two out of three games in every series,” Cora said. “It feels that way.” Dalbec is expected to start on Saturday against left-hander Trevor Rogers. He’s bashing southpaws thus far to the tune of a .986 OPS, including seven extra-base hits in just 50 plate appearances. Right-hander Sandy Alcantara is expected to start the Sunday finale for the Marlins. “They’re going to get at-bats but they’re not going to start 10 games in a row, 12 games in a row,” Cora said. “We’re going to mix and match with all of them.” www.providencejournal.com/story/sports/mlb/red-sox/2021/05/28/red-sox-news-and-notes-they-play-miami-marlins-mlb/5247502001/
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art
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Post by art on May 29, 2021 7:17:17 GMT -5
If he's going well, wouldn't you want Arroyo replacing Dalbec vs RHP a couple times a week (with Kiké and Santana moving to CF and 1b)? Arroyo hits RHP well. Personally, I don't want to platoon Dalbec yet at all. It's not like he's historically had a bad split or something. They need to find out if he's the guy going forward. They're not going to do that sitting him against a lot of RHP. With a 3-man bench, or maybe even with a bigger bench, I don't think the Sox can afford to carry a 1B-only RH platoon player. I know he also can play 3B but we don't need that.
My concern with Dalbec is that his problems with RHP may stem from ML scouting and analytics having now zeroed in on his vulnerabilities and he hasn't yet shown much if any progress in overcoming them.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 1, 2021 23:55:52 GMT -5
We are at the 1/3 54 game mark. So far so good, but much we can improve. When this Olympic tournament is over can we expect Duran?? Is Casas possible this season?? How can we improve the pitching?? Can Erod improve? Can we expect Sale to do anything?
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