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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 30, 2021 12:08:08 GMT -5
I think we are at the point that Fitzgerald/Winckowski/Potts/Rosario are all not added/DFAd.
We may be choosing between Ort or Feltman, but Feltman seems like the exact type who would be picked up.
I don't think Gilberto is added personally. I just don't see him sticking. Tough risk to take, just like Downs.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 30, 2021 12:22:11 GMT -5
Schreiber is an interesting case. He's not a Milb free agent until Oct '22. So Sox can keep him for MLB depth ... then goes on 40-man with '23,'24,'25 as option years.
He'll be 28 next spring. Nobody wants him on MLB roster all year, as there are plenty of others with similar age/talent profile.
Fitzgerald: same situation, age Edit ... Ort: same situation, age 30 in '22
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Post by fanofredsox on Aug 30, 2021 12:40:35 GMT -5
Updated projections: Certain to be added Brayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Kutter Crawford Would've been certain, but how do we factor in TJ? Thaddeus Ward Likely to be added, not certain Josh Winckowski Ryan Fitzgerald? Possibly added but likely not Victor Santos Frank German Durbin Feltman Kaleb Ort AJ Politi Jose Adames (MLFA) John Schreiber Unlikely to be added but worth mentioning Tyler Dearden Tyler Esplin Devlin Granberg Aaron Perry Ceddanne Rafaela Tyreque Reed I don’t think Jimenez is a “certain to be added”. I do think if he’s not added he gets picked in the rule 5 draft. But ends up being returned because I don’t think he can or is ready to stick as a 4th OF or 25/26th man on the bench of even a “second division” team. I also wonder how not having a clear understanding of how differently a new CBA (roster size, position/pitcher limits, DH in NL …) could affect the rule 5 draft & roster construction as a whole is going to be looked at by GMs. Also, it seems like there is always a surprise addition that no one ever really considers. I think this year it will be Chase Shugart.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,104
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Post by cdj on Aug 30, 2021 12:49:20 GMT -5
I think we are at the point that Fitzgerald/Winckowski/Potts/Rosario are all not added/DFAd. We may be choosing between Ort or Feltman, but Feltman seems like the exact type who would be picked up. I don't think Gilberto is added personally. I just don't see him sticking. Tough risk to take, just like Downs. Downs isn’t much of a risk at all, a crap team can easily let him be a backup MI for a season then send him down to AAA as a 24 year old if the season doesn’t go well with the stick its a free fringe top 100 prospect, who was even more highly acclaimed like 2.5 months ago
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 30, 2021 13:18:48 GMT -5
Updated projections: Certain to be added Brayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Kutter Crawford Would've been certain, but how do we factor in TJ? Thaddeus Ward Likely to be added, not certain Josh Winckowski Ryan Fitzgerald? Possibly added but likely not Victor Santos Frank German Durbin Feltman Kaleb Ort AJ Politi Jose Adames (MLFA) John Schreiber Unlikely to be added but worth mentioning Tyler Dearden Tyler Esplin Devlin Granberg Aaron Perry Ceddanne Rafaela Tyreque Reed I don’t think Jimenez is a “certain to be added”. I do think if he’s not added he gets picked in the rule 5 draft. But ends up being returned because I don’t think he can or is ready to stick as a 4th OF or 25/26th man on the bench of even a “second division” team. I also wonder how not having a clear understanding of how differently a new CBA (roster size, position/pitcher limits, DH in NL …) could affect the rule 5 draft & roster construction as a whole is going to be looked at by GMs. Also, it seems like there is always a surprise addition that no one ever really considers. I think this year it will be Chase Shugart. Not to quibble, but a couple disagreements: 1) With 26-man rosters, I bet a team could absolutely find a way to squeeze Jimenez onto a roster. Will he perform well? No. But if the 2020 Red Sox could carry Araúz all year, a team can carry Jimenez. Yes the season is longer but like, you don't think the 2021 Orioles could've carried him? EDIT: I will give you he's not a certainty though. Maybe he goes into the below group. 2) Don't really agree with the thought that surprise additions are common. The entire time I've done this I think two Rule 5 additions surprised me and I'd argue both were clear mistakes by the team - Denyi Reyes in 2018 (he was DFA in January 2020) and Alex Hassan in 2012 (Josh Fields and Ryan Pressly both got popped in R5 and it didn't seem likely he would have been). I've generally been more surprised by guys who didn't get protected.
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Aug 30, 2021 17:10:28 GMT -5
I don’t think Jimenez is a “certain to be added”. I do think if he’s not added he gets picked in the rule 5 draft. But ends up being returned because I don’t think he can or is ready to stick as a 4th OF or 25/26th man on the bench of even a “second division” team. I also wonder how not having a clear understanding of how differently a new CBA (roster size, position/pitcher limits, DH in NL …) could affect the rule 5 draft & roster construction as a whole is going to be looked at by GMs. Also, it seems like there is always a surprise addition that no one ever really considers. I think this year it will be Chase Shugart. Not to quibble, but a couple disagreements: 1) With 26-man rosters, I bet a team could absolutely find a way to squeeze Jimenez onto a roster. Will he perform well? No. But if the 2020 Red Sox could carry Araúz all year, a team can carry Jimenez. Yes the season is longer but like, you don't think the 2021 Orioles could've carried him? EDIT: I will give you he's not a certainty though. Maybe he goes into the below group. 2) Don't really agree with the thought that surprise additions are common. The entire time I've done this I think two Rule 5 additions surprised me and I'd argue both were clear mistakes by the team - Denyi Reyes in 2018 (he was DFA in January 2020) and Alex Hassan in 2012 (Josh Fields and Ryan Pressly both got popped in R5 and it didn't seem likely he would have been). I've generally been more surprised by guys who didn't get protected. I’d say that Fields and Pressly were easily the most successful Rule 5 players the Sox have lost in the last 20+ years. I seriously doubt that Jimenez will be left unprotected and I hope not, for his own sake. As you said, I’m confident that he wouldn’t perform well but I could see a poor team keeping him and then sending him to AA in 2022, where I’m guessing he would likely flounder and most likely flame out. I can’t think of too many Shane Victorino types who failed miserably and then ended up having successful careers. The fact that Victorino essentially lost two years of development (sandwiched around a solid season split between AA and AAA) makes his career even more impressive, IMO.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 31, 2021 0:39:22 GMT -5
arquimedezbozo, wasn't that Hatfield's member name way back?
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Aug 31, 2021 6:12:24 GMT -5
arquimedezbozo, wasn't that Hatfield's member name way back? Doh. I guess that would explain (for me) his comment on one of my posts on draft day: “I just want to make clear this is not me!! Lol“ FWIW, I’ve been coming to SP since the late 2000s but have generally stayed away from the boards until earlier this year, so I may be low on originality but I’m not a Hatfield stalker. ;/)
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 31, 2021 6:25:14 GMT -5
I think we are at the point that Fitzgerald/Winckowski/Potts/Rosario are all not added/DFAd. We may be choosing between Ort or Feltman, but Feltman seems like the exact type who would be picked up. I don't think Gilberto is added personally. I just don't see him sticking. Tough risk to take, just like Downs. I don't see how Winckowski isn't added. He's been alright and was the main return for Benintendi. Potts and Rosario will be DFA'ed and probably clear. For a team that has improved their 40 man roster there is still some work to be done. I'm also fairly certain that Bloom does trade Eovaldi for prospects this offseason which would add another 40 man spot. They'll also probably keep one or two spots open for the Rule 5 draft. I think if they were going to choose Ort for a 40 man spot he would have been added and given a shot already.
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Post by bcsox on Aug 31, 2021 9:14:47 GMT -5
If Winck doesnt get added I would be surprised if some second division team doesnt add him. The sleeper prospect to me is Fitzgerald. He can pick it. He is a better defensive shortstop than anyone we have on the MLB or AAA roster. He has some flexibilty, and I like his hit tool, with a little bit of juice. I dont think he is a starter though that is growing on me, but he I really think he has a MLB role next year. I like him more than Arauz. The only issue is his age, which makes him essentially a non prospect, but I think he will play and contribute in the show next year.
Additionally, I would have no problem chopping Rosario and Potts off of the 40. There doesnt seem to be a plus skill with either one of them, and I know scouting the stat lines in the minors isnt always a good decision, but at some point there results are what they are (Downs, Rosario, Potts, German)
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 31, 2021 11:07:08 GMT -5
Protect 5, lose 1. That's a success. Losing 1 player to the draft every year or two is the price you pay for protecting others.
Brayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Kutter Crawford Thaddeus Ward Josh Winckowski
Kutter's new team will find he can't get MLB hitters out, and send him back in May
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2021 13:28:16 GMT -5
Protect 5, lose 1. That's a success. Losing 1 player to the draft every year or two is the price you pay for protecting others. Brayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Kutter Crawford Thaddeus Ward Josh Winckowski Kutter's new team will find he can't get MLB hitters out, and send him back in May Strongly disagree with your underlying premise that losing a player in Rule 5 every year or two is normal. Some years you're going to lose guys, sure, so I don't mean to imply it's never acceptable to lose one, but that should be on rare occasions.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 31, 2021 13:46:53 GMT -5
Protect 5, lose 1. That's a success. Losing 1 player to the draft every year or two is the price you pay for protecting others. Brayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Kutter Crawford Thaddeus Ward Josh Winckowski Kutter's new team will find he can't get MLB hitters out, and send him back in May Strongly disagree with your underlying premise that losing a player in Rule 5 every year or two is normal. Some years you're going to lose guys, sure, so I don't mean to imply it's never acceptable to lose one, but that should be on rare occasions. Well that kind of depends on how strong a system's depth is though right? Like if one of Chaim's principles as a GM to create quality farm system depth, it could become the norm that we have a player selected every (or almost every) year. Its an unfortunate byproduct of what is a good thing for the farm system overall. So just looking at the Dodgers who many believe is the system we should strive to mimic, they had two players selected in the major league portion of the 2020 Rule 5 draft and 4 more in the minor league portion. The Rays, who thrive on having quality depth, have had a player selected in the last four drafts. And then there's the Yankees....they've had a whopping 13 players selected over the last 5 drafts alone (thats the major league portion alone, so not even counting guys like Raynel Espinal or Kaleb Out). So basically what I'm trying to say is that if Chaim's vision comes to fruition, and we should hope it does, it could be the case that losing players to the Rule 5 draft could become increasingly common. It might not happen this year though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2021 14:16:24 GMT -5
Just went back and looked and I'd forgotten how often they used to lose guys in Rule 5. www.soxprospects.com/dhrule5.htmI was about to say while the system was good they still weren't losing anyone, but they did have guys picked - they just didn't all turn into Pressly. 2009-14, working backwards: Justin Haley and Aneury Tavarez were taken and returned. They lost Jason Garcia Michael Almanzar got returned. They lost Fields and Pressly. They lost Cesar Cabral when he was taken the second time. Cabral and Daniel Turpen got returned. Jorge Jimenez and Armando Zerpa got returned. So... fair enough. I lose! --- IIRC, everyone in that group except for Fields, at the time, I was thinking was an acceptable loss. It was clear some of those guys were getting returned or otherwise weren't big losses. In this group of six above, I'd put them all higher than the "acceptable losses" group, personally. Ward just has the weird TJ thing so do you gamble he won't get picked...
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Post by kcbosox on Aug 31, 2021 15:35:08 GMT -5
Couldn’t a team select Ward, keep him on roster for the 90 days, and IL him? Seems like a reasonable risk for a Top 10 guy. Only eat up the roster space for 60+ games.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 31, 2021 15:48:08 GMT -5
Protect 5, lose 1. That's a success. Losing 1 player to the draft every year or two is the price you pay for protecting others. Brayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Kutter Crawford Thaddeus Ward Josh Winckowski Kutter's new team will find he can't get MLB hitters out, and send him back in May Strongly disagree with your underlying premise that losing a player in Rule 5 every year or two is normal. Some years you're going to lose guys, sure, so I don't mean to imply it's never acceptable to lose one, but that should be on rare occasions. I wrote it up in the 2021 roster post... I don't even think they can realistically protect five of them, without really slashing MLB depth for a team they think can content. Bello and Crawford are the 100% locks to me. Jiminez/Downs/Ward because of potential. Winck/Feltman/Ort you just expect to get picked and live with.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,353
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Post by radiohix on Aug 31, 2021 15:59:48 GMT -5
Re: Jimenez. When was the last time a prospect from Low-A got picked and kept? Arauz was in AA, Baddoo was in Adv.A but I've never heard of a prospect picked from Low.A, any precedents?
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 31, 2021 16:26:37 GMT -5
I don't think you can justify leaving off young starting pitchers with some high minors success (Crawford, Santos, Winckowski) while protecting relievers with years of service time who rate to put up an ERA well north of 4 next year. The high minors starters can likely give you a relief ERA between 4 and 5, too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2021 17:10:33 GMT -5
Re: Jimenez. When was the last time a prospect from Low-A got picked and kept? Arauz was in AA, Baddoo was in Adv.A but I've never heard of a prospect picked from Low.A, any precedents? Jason Garcia from this system comes to mind. He'd barely even pitched in Low-A. EDIT: Jose Soriano, the first pick last year, had like half a season in Low-A. Will look for hitters though. EDIT2: Guys are picked from High-A all the time. You mentioned Baddoo and Arauz, but Richie Martin too. Luis Torrens, a catcher of all things, was picked in 2016 from Low-A and stuck. Allen Cordoba in that same draft hadn't even played in Low A yet. There's definitely president, and I'd add that it's a weird year because of the lost 2020 season - Jimenez isn't a typical guy that's "only" reached Low-A. He'd have been there last year and would've been in at least High-A this year if not for the pandemic.
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 1, 2021 5:19:12 GMT -5
26 Man Roster
C- Vasquez 1B- FA Lefty 2B- Arroyo SS- Bogarets 3B- Devers* LF- Verdugo* CF- Durran* RF- Renfroe DH- Martinez (or FA if he opts out)
Bench C- Plawecki 1B,3B- Dalbec OF,MI- Hernandez 4- FA (preferably lefty who can cover middle infield)
Rotation 1- Sale 2- Eovaldi 3- FA 4- Pivetta 5- Houke (Could switch places with Whitlock in bullpen depending on preference)
Bullpen 1- Barnes 2- Sawamura 3- Taylor* 4- D. Hernandez* 5- Whitlock 6- Braiser -Has Options 7- Davis* -Has Options 8- Valdez -Has Options
14 40 man roster spots
Already on and have options 1- Mata (IL) 2- Seabold (AAA) 3- Groome (AA) 4- Brazado (AAA) 5- R. Hernandez (AAA) C 6- Wong (AAA) C 7- Cordero (AAA) 1B,LF 8- Arauz (AAA) MI,OF
To be added 9- Bello -AA 10- Crawford -AAA 11-Winckowski - AAA 12- Santos -AAA 13- Downs - AAA MI 14- Jimenez - A+ OF
Free Agents lost: Octavio, Richards, Perez, Rodriguez, Santana, Shaw, Schwarber, Robles, Munoz, Gonsalves, Peacock
Removed from 40 man: Rios, Potts, Rosario
Notable Left exposed to rule 5: Feltman, German, Ward, Fitzgerald, Ort, Schreiber
This is how I have it mapped out. Leaves room for a few FA additions to lineup and rotation while preserving depth that should help at some point during 2022. Most importantly it has a lot of pitchers on the 40 man that shouldn't be dead space and are easy to imagine contributing to the major league club at some point next season if their development continues. (Seabold, Crawford, and Brazado early in the year and Winckowski, Santos, and Bello later in the season.) Been a while since we had this many pitchers in the upper minors who look poised to help in the near future, which will be important because the payroll already projects around 190 million without the FA additions.
Bullpen is the biggest weakness and can definitely see switching out Braiser, Valdez, and Davis for better options in FA. Feltman, Ort, Schriber, and Rios might be better options to keep at the end of the year. Feltman is actually the person I would be most worried about loosing.
Cordero is another guy who could be a casualty I would be okay with. He has a .521 OPS since July 1st in 137 PA in Majors and minors.
Could use some 3rd base depth added to the high minors as well.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 1, 2021 11:31:59 GMT -5
notnickyorke did a great job working it all out.
Looking at it, I don't see much of a crunch. I see plenty of low value guys that make his roster. I don't think it would be very painful to add an additional 2-3 of his "notables left exposed" or to scoop up some 40 man roster casualty prospects from someone else.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 1, 2021 13:33:04 GMT -5
Some quibbles to @nny's fine list:
1. Swap Houck and Whitlock. Houck is much more suited to Whitlock's 2021 role and Whitlock has legit starter stuff. 2. Lose Arauz, in favor of Feltman or Ort (or Rafaela, depending on how sneaky vulnerable he is - Chaim will know based on how many teams asked for him at the deadline). Arauz is okay but nothing special and if he's claimed, is easily replaced, if necessary, by Fitzgerald (who is a low risk to be picked in Rule 5 due to his age). 3. I'm not sure what the rules are for selecting injured/rehabbing players in Rule 5 but if it's easy to stash them, you need to protect Ward. 4. At this point it has to be considered highly optimistic to have Duran as your 2022 starting CF, particularly ahead of Enrique. It's still early but Jarren is giving off a very AAAA vibe. Call me when he's reached Michael Chavis or Will Middlebrooks production. 5. Big picture, I think there's going to be more of a roster shake-up affecting the starting position players than most of us are expecting. There's a serious lack of team speed and defense overall.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 1, 2021 13:52:56 GMT -5
I think Fitzgerald is pretty high risk, actually. It's not hard for me to imagine a team being happy to have him on their major league roster for a minimum salary. It looks like his glove plays anywhere, and he's had a solid year at the plate.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,104
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Post by cdj on Sept 1, 2021 14:37:16 GMT -5
tbh it just seems to me the team doesn’t like Fitzgerald as much as the board does for whatever reason. I guess they know a lot about him but I’ve never really seen a negative report about him. I’d like to see him at least get some AAA run
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 1, 2021 22:44:10 GMT -5
I think Fitzgerald is pretty high risk, actually. It's not hard for me to imagine a team being happy to have him on their major league roster for a minimum salary. It looks like his glove plays anywhere, and he's had a solid year at the plate. It's good point and I like him but it's kind of hard to think of any other 28-yo Rule 5 guys. Nice interview with him on FG Audio last month.
I'd be happy to see him get a shot to replace Arauz, who's 23 but doesn't have loud enough tools to make me think there's anything more coming. His glove flashes but it's inconsistent, I don't see a ton of "baseball IQ," and his hitting approach is much too swing-heavy for a guy with no game power. Let's see what Fitzy can do.
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