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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 7:21:27 GMT -5
I know this is very far in advance, but the sox will have a lot of quality players rule-5 eligible after this year, so i wouldn't be a bad idea to start thinking about it.
the following players are rule 5 eligible after this year:
Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Luis Bastardo, Jeremiah Bayer, Ricardo Betancourt, Carson Blair, Xander Bogaerts, Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, JD Durbin, Leonel Escobar, Jose Garcia, Zach Gentile, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Charflie Haeger, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Drew Hedman, Jon Hee, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Adalberto Ibarra, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron Kurcz, Lucas LeBlanc, Juan Carlos Linares, Tyler Lockwood, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Lyle Overbay, Oscar Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Roberto Reyes, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Ryan Sweeney, Scott Swinson, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Shannon Wilkerson, Tyler Wilson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer
100% locks: Xander Bogaerts Bryce Brentz Brandon Workman
Very Likely: Garin Cecchini Keury De La Cruz Brandon Jacobs
Other possibilities, depends on performance this year: Jose Vinicio Mike Almanzar Anthony Ranaudo Chris Balcom-Miller William Cuevas Keith Couch Jeremy Hazelbaker Chris Hernandez Jeremy Kehrt JC Linares Boss Moanora (Not really, he just has a great name)
Reply for your thoughts. There are some intriguing players on the last list, so this will be a tough year to determine who will make the 40-man and who won't.
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 15, 2013 7:59:00 GMT -5
Bayer retired FYI.
Cecchini is a lock IMO (together with Bogaerts, Brentz and Workman). I see KDLC as a possibility but not very likely. Jacobs will depend on his continued development.
Keep in mind that JBJ will likely be added to the 40-man sometime this year. Hopefully, Kalish will also come off the 60-day DL this year.
You also have to look at the 40-man roster to determine who will be off the list.
Currently anticipated free agents:
Ellsbury Saltalamacchia Hanrahan Drew Napoli
Easily droppable from the 40-man roster:
Hassan Nava One of Carp/Gomez One of Holt/Ciriaco One of Mortenson/Aceves
In other words, I don't see a real issue right now.
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 15, 2013 8:06:32 GMT -5
Should add that in the "other possibilities" group, there are some real discussion points, depending on how they perform. Do we add a low-ceiling lefty like Hernandez or a high-ceiling high-risk guy like Ranaudo, for instance?
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Post by futurefenwaystars on Mar 15, 2013 11:35:19 GMT -5
I know that every year we make a big deal out of the Rule 5 Draft and nothing big ends up happening. But I don't see how the Red Sox will be able to manage their 40-man roster in 2013 without losing some players who have the potential to be significant Major League contributors over the long-term.
No matter how he plays this year, I'd wager that there is zero chance that Anthony Ranaudo could go undrafted in the Rule 5 draft. He has so much potential (at least as a power arm out of the bullpen) that some team would be happy to scoop him up and hide him on their 25-man roster for a year.
I'm also confident that some team would take a chance on Chris Hernandez as a cheap number 5 starter or long-relief guy out of the bullpen.
It's going to be interesting.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 15, 2013 12:20:10 GMT -5
I know that every year we make a big deal out of the Rule 5 Draft and nothing big ends up happening. I wouldn't say that at all. The 40-man roster situation had an enormous impact at the 2011 trade deadline when the club traded Chiang, Federowicz, and Fife, and this past year the club lost two players in the Rule 5 draft in Fields and Pressly, plus lost Olmsted to free agency because there wasn't room for him on the roster. Now, the actual impact of any of these moves is debatable (I'd posit that Fife would have made starts last year, although that's not necessarily a good thing), but things certainly "happened" because of the R5 Draft.
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 15, 2013 13:12:25 GMT -5
To add to what Chris said, one impact of Rule 5 may be that a number of the listed players may become trade chips (2nd or 3rd pieces of larger deals, top piece of small deals), if the Red Sox are in the WC hunt.
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 24, 2013 7:14:23 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2013 8:20:05 GMT -5
Pressly has a low ERA at 0.82, but this is still a small sample. Don't forget that his K/9 rate and BB/9 rate both sit at 2.5. An ERA that low is unsustainable with such a small K/9 rate. He still might be good, but it is early to jump to conclusions. Let's see what he does in the regular season.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 24, 2013 15:11:45 GMT -5
The Twins aren't evaluating Pressly on his spring stats. If his ERA was 0.00 and he looked bad, they'd return him. If it was 10.00 and he hadn't yet struck out a batter but they were impressed with his stuff, makeup and other inputs, they'd keep him. They're a bad team that is building for 2015 and beyond.
I'd be skeptical about his ability to stick right now based on where he was last year, but that really only applies to a contender. The Twins goal isn't really to win this year, so Pressly may keep a roster spot over a player with options who is more ready, where he wouldn't with the Red Sox or another team with different goals.
Also, the fact the Twins took Pressly so high in the Rule 5 and seem to be ready to keep him to start the season indicates that they are higher on him than I ever got the impression the Red Sox were. If it gets to the point where Minnesota can't keep him on the roster for one reason or another, my guess is the two teams work out a deal. So, one way or another, I don't see him being returned.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2013 10:07:15 GMT -5
My impression is that comes from scouting him in the AFL.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 28, 2013 11:48:59 GMT -5
My impression is that comes from scouting him in the AFL. That, plus Pressly has been a guy scouts have talked about for a while. We've heard about teams liking him for years now as a guy teams wanted to make a tweak or two to.
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2013 15:41:36 GMT -5
The Rule 5 draft is beginning to change because it looks as though Ranaudo has overcome his bad performance last year and has been lights-out so far this year. If he continues, he will HAVE to be added to the 40-man before the R5 draft. I don't want to trade him either, because I'm not too keen on trading prospects at all, especially high-ceiling pitchers.
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Post by amfox1 on May 7, 2013 16:22:11 GMT -5
Cecchini is a lock IMO (together with Bogaerts, Brentz and Workman). I see KDLC as a possibility but not very likely. Jacobs will depend on his continued development. You also have to look at the 40-man roster to determine who will be off the list. Currently anticipated free agents: Ellsbury Saltalamacchia Hanrahan Drew Napoli Easily droppable from the 40-man roster: Hassan Carp One of Holt/Ciriaco One of Mortenson/Aceves Just to update this from seven weeks ago, my current projection is as follows: Pitchers - gone Aceves, Hanrahan, Uehara, Mortensen, DFA Wright; add Ranaudo, Workman, Ruiz Position players - gone Napoli, Ellsbury, Drew, Saltalamacchia, DFA Hassan, Holt, Butler, Kalish (not currently on 40-man); add Snyder, Brentz, Bogaerts, Almanzar, Cecchini This leaves three open spots on the 40-man roster. I'll take my chances with Jacobs, KDLC, Hernandez, Stroup and JHaze but will strongly consider adding De La Torre, Maier and/or Rowland-Smith in order to prevent one of them from becoming a minor league free agent.
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Post by hammerhead on May 8, 2013 8:29:52 GMT -5
I think chances are pretty good that Napoli (if healthy) is back either with a true extension or a qualifying offer. I think it's also 50/50 or better that Uehara is back and there is probably a 50/50 chance that one of Ells, Mortensen, Drew or Salty are retained. I bet Snyder is gone though. He'll probably get a look with the big club and they'll realize he's a AAAA player.
A lot of things will probably work themselves out by the time the next rule 5 happens anyway.
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Post by okin15 on May 8, 2013 8:52:08 GMT -5
Even if Napoli is gone, there has to be a 1B added (or another OF if you play Nava and Carp there) The real issue is too many C on the roster. I expect that one or more will be traded this summer, though I'd think the Sox would want to keep/acquire a LHH C to pair with Ross or Lavarnway.
I see Ranaudo as a lock, and also Almanzar if he continues to hit like this. With Checchini, Bogaerts, Brentz, and Workman, that's 5 or 6 guys. We may have to trade a starting pitcher as well (could come from minors or majors) hopefully for a good return. Positions of need are top flight prospects at 1B, C, 2B, OF. Not sure how you get the later with the former, but anything is better than a DFA.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 8, 2013 9:34:26 GMT -5
How valuable are some of these guys trade wise? Is it possible to package them up, keeping our top prospects, but getting a veteran from the right team. The situation I am thinking of is if the Philies keep their winning percentage at .470 into midseason and are looking to trade Cliff Lee, if we could put a package together of say Cruz, Jacobs, Almanzar, and two others, like Vinicio, Hazelbaker, or Hernandez. We would take on the majority of Cliff Lee's contract. Now I am not saying this is the trade we should make, I am just wondering if that trade would be considered fair for both sides. I would like to see us get some value out of these guys instead of losing them in the rule 5 draft.
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Post by amfox1 on May 8, 2013 11:13:47 GMT -5
The trade value would depend on how much money is assumed by the Phillies. Lee is owed $25mm in 2013-2015, with a $12.5mm buyout (or $27.5mm option for 2016). No one is going to give them two A-/B+ prospects for Lee unless Philly eats $20-30mm. BTW, Lee has a 21-team no-trade. I would assume BOS and the NY teams are on the list.
As to the instant question, none of the prospects mentioned are 1st pieces of a deal. Almanzar might be a 2nd piece. The others are 3rd pieces/sweeteners.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 8, 2013 11:47:49 GMT -5
Just realized this post was from March so it's not as insane as I thought. Things have changed a lot since then.
Ranaudo is a lock with Workman.
KDLC and Jacobs are no chance of being added or picked.
I kind of would like to see Nava/Mortenson stay. I overvalue them, I know, but they do have real value on the 40 man. I don't really see what Hassan brings that Nava can't for a few more years. Hazelbaker isn't a lock to be added, especially with Nava showing more value, but he will defintely get picked (and maybe returned).
Almanzar and Britton should both be traded, IMO. I don't buy either long term, with the Red Sox. I really thought they might be able to get away with not adding Cecchini, especially if he's at A+ a while, but now I don't know.
Hernandez and Wright are two other 40/R5D trade possibilities. Ranaudo/Workman/Barnes/RDLR/Webster are all better depth SP options next year, so I don't see the value in those two as much.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2013 14:28:32 GMT -5
Yeah, to add to what Amfox said, the Phillies are going to need one headline-ish guy to complement those players. The R5 pu pu platter gets you an Erik Bedard type, not Lee, even with his contract.
To jump in on the R5 fun, snapshot as of right now involving the players who are worth mentioning:
Locks (can't play their way off): Bogaerts, Brentz, Cecchini, Workman Assuming they're still around, they're getting added. No doubt. I put Workman here given his AA track record.
Added: Almanzar, Ranaudo These guys definitely get added as of right now, but I could see if either were to turn back into a pumpkin, so to speak, they could get left off. Would need to be back to disaster levels though. Nearly put Ranaudo in Locks.
Bubble: De La Cruz, Hazelbaker, Hernandez Nearly put Hazelbaker in Added, but I think his defensive limitations hold him back to this pack. De La Cruz would need to reach Double-A. Hernandez is here because of wide disparity of what he could do the rest of the year. I think with him it's not whether you think he'll get picked, but whether he's worth protecting.
Not added: Jacobs, Linares, Meneses, Ruiz, Stroup, Vinicio, Vitek I think the players here could play their way into being protected or selected, except for Vinicio who is clearly so far off. Doesn't mean i think they will.
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Post by amfox1 on May 8, 2013 14:49:51 GMT -5
To follow up on Chris, my only quibble is with Ruiz, who is opening scouts' eyes and would be a likely Rule 5 selection (a la Pressly). The walks are an issue, but Ruiz has K'ed 24 in 13 innings this year. (Martin has K'ed 25 in 19.2 innings this year, although his K/BB, WHIP and OPSA are dominant, where Ruiz's is less good, due to his high BB rate)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2013 15:21:11 GMT -5
Yeah, thought about moving him up. Maybe he should have been a bubble guy. Kind of forgot that he pitched ok in AZ despite not having AA experience. That said, he's another guy where I think the question is whether he's worth protecting versus whether he'll get picked. E.g., yes, Pressly got picked, but it wasn't worth protecting him and using a 40-man spot on him all year. It's exactly the problem with Hassan right now - was it worth protecting him even if we assume he'd have gotten picked?
If he keeps pitching like he has, then he can move up. But I want to see him a few times through the EL. Interestingly, he's faced New Britain in 4 of his 8 appearances, and they've gotten to him the last two times he's faced them. SSS warning, but we need way more data on him either way.
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Post by amfox1 on May 8, 2013 16:06:34 GMT -5
Don't disagree on Ruiz or Pressly. Protecting Hassan was questionable at the time.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 8, 2013 16:38:47 GMT -5
I think the Sox added Hassan because at the time, they just didn't have any depth close to the majors (before Carp/JBJ were thoughts). I disagreed with it not because he wasn't depth, but because even if they lost him, a replacement OF of his level would have been easy to come by.
RP decisions will be tough. I can't see it with KDLC, can't see him getting picked without really having a good stretch at Salem and into Portland.
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Post by James Dunne on May 9, 2013 6:33:59 GMT -5
Even if De La Cruz has a good stretch, I just think he's too far away from sticking on a major league roster. Teams are carrying four man benches these days, which usually means only four outfielders. That fourth outfielder needs to be ready to play. It's not like carrying a mop-up pitcher and finding spots for him.
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Post by gator39 on May 9, 2013 17:04:57 GMT -5
I don't see why Ruiz would be protected when Fields & Olmsted weren't this year
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