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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 24, 2022 13:31:18 GMT -5
Lost in all this discussion is that he'll cease to be a 2023 rookie with 2.2 more IP, which should happen Sunday night on national TV.
(Tyler Danish is 0.2 IP shy; Winck, Crawford and Schreiber went over a while ago, while Seabold, and all the other relievers will still be rookies next year.)
Back to A Game of Clones ...
Who was the last Sox rookie starting pitcher who had exciting success and ...
... whose FB averaged 97 mph or better? Clemens? (Kopech and Montas if we hadn't dealt them.)
... who had no pedigree at all in terms of draft position or FA signing bonus? Anyone? (E-Rod, BTW, signed with the O's for $175K, so it's not him.)
Bryan Mata would be another, BTW.
I don't remember Clemens throwing that hard as a rookie. Almost no one threw that hard in the 1980s. Clemens threw hard but with pinpoint control. Jeff Suppan was an exciting rookie at age 20! The next Jim Palmer. Until he pitched. Came up so young like Mookie or Xander. Eventually became a guy who gave the Royals 200 innings a year. I literally remember bringing a radio with me somewhere to listen to his first start. 3 runs in 5.2 at age 20. Went South after that. Did Duquette mess him up by bringing him up too soon?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 24, 2022 13:42:52 GMT -5
At the end of 1999 22YO 6' 5" Juan Pena gave up one run in 13 innings with 15 Ks in two starts. Projected to start in 2000, he got hit in the elbow in ST and tore his MCL. Never made it back to mlb.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 25, 2022 0:39:47 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 25, 2022 21:53:51 GMT -5
I don't remember Clemens throwing that hard as a rookie. Almost no one threw that hard in the 1980s. Clemens threw hard but with pinpoint control. Jeff Suppan was an exciting rookie at age 20! The next Jim Palmer. Until he pitched. Came up so young like Mookie or Xander. Eventually became a guy who gave the Royals 200 innings a year. I literally remember bringing a radio with me somewhere to listen to his first start. 3 runs in 5.2 at age 20. Went South after that. Did Duquette mess him up by bringing him up too soon? It probably didn't help him, but Suppan just never had the high-ceiling stuff that they were talking up at the time they brought him up. He was a high-floor command/control guy, and, it being the time when Greg Maddux was the best pitcher alive, every command/control guy was getting that comp. In his 1999 to 2006 prime, he threw 1628 1/3 innings (204 per year) and had a 106 ERA+. Ended up with 17.1 bWAR, which is actually deflated some from being so bad from 2008 onward. That's a really good career!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2022 0:33:13 GMT -5
At the end of 1999 22YO 6' 5" Juan Pena gave up one run in 13 innings with 15 Ks in two starts. Projected to start in 2000, he got hit in the elbow in ST and tore his MCL. Never made it back to mlb. I followed him all through the minors, as he kept on getting great results while remaining unheralded because he didn't throw hard, and was overshadowed as a prospect by by Carl Pavano and Brian Rose who were teammates a year ahead of him. I remember the two starts where he had solid stuff and great command. He had a 4.15 ERA in Pawtucket and from that you'd guess that we were just seeing him at the top of his game, but I recall being really excited, and that suggests to me that he had started poorly and had returned to his earlier sub-3.00 form in the second half of the season.
Last time I checked he was the all-time MLB leader in ERA+, minimum 2 G started and some reasonable innings minimum.
It's worth noting that after their AA season in Trention, Pivano and Rose were BA's #17 and #44, and after their PawSox season, #9 and #22. I don't know if the latter has been matched before or after.
All three of these guys were worked too hard in the minors and had physical problems, but that was the rule in those days.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 26, 2022 1:05:20 GMT -5
Great performance by Bello tonight. Biggest stage of his career and he was nails. His stuff is just filthy. The MFYs were flailing all night and hitting pop-ups on most of their contact.
As fortunate as the 2021 Sox were with the health of their rotation, parlaying it into a deep playoff run, they were just as unlucky this year. The silver lining is that we got extended looks at Bello, Crawford, Winckowski and a lot to look forward to next year.
Will Mata, Walter, Murphy emerge in 2023? Maybe Seabold will take a step forward. If next year turns out to be the tax reset year, let's see which kids are keepers and which are bullpen arms or trade bait so that we know exactly how many holes to fill in 2024.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2022 3:25:14 GMT -5
I literally remember bringing a radio with me somewhere to listen to his first start. 3 runs in 5.2 at age 20. Went South after that. Did Duquette mess him up by bringing him up too soon? It probably didn't help him, but Suppan just never had the high-ceiling stuff that they were talking up at the time they brought him up. He was a high-floor command/control guy, and, it being the time when Greg Maddux was the best pitcher alive, every command/control guy was getting that comp. In his 1999 to 2006 prime, he threw 1628 1/3 innings (204 per year) and had a 106 ERA+. Ended up with 17.1 bWAR, which is actually deflated some from being so bad from 2008 onward. That's a really good career! And of course we traded for him in 2003 when we needed another starter, and because they (apparently) didn't trust the former failed-prospect who was having a great season with the PawSox after being claimed on waivers the previous winter, kept under the radar in ST, and passed though waivers again just before the season opened. I spent the next winter breaking down his whole career and arguing at SoSH that he the real deal. That of course was Bronson Arroyo.
But the mention of "Jeff" gnawed at me and I had to figure out who were the two acclaimed pitching prospects I was being reminded of -- Jeff Sellers and Rob Woodward.
And that in turn led me to hunt down the name of another tantalizing pitching prospect, who took a line drive off the head in the first game of doubleheader against the Orioles, a game I was at, in the bleachers. And when I found it, I immediately recognized Tony Muser as the guy who hit him. What I had forgotten completely that he was 2 outs from a shutout and my buddy and I thought we were seeing a confirmation that he was going to be a reliable member of the rotation. That was June 31, 1975, and he was out until 9/1.
And has anyone in MLB history ever needed a nickname less than Dick Pole?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2022 6:32:14 GMT -5
It probably didn't help him, but Suppan just never had the high-ceiling stuff that they were talking up at the time they brought him up. He was a high-floor command/control guy, and, it being the time when Greg Maddux was the best pitcher alive, every command/control guy was getting that comp. In his 1999 to 2006 prime, he threw 1628 1/3 innings (204 per year) and had a 106 ERA+. Ended up with 17.1 bWAR, which is actually deflated some from being so bad from 2008 onward. That's a really good career! And of course we traded for him in 2003 when we needed another starter, and because they (apparently) didn't trust the former failed-prospect who was having a great season with the PawSox after being claimed on waivers the previous winter, kept under the radar in ST, and passed though waivers again just before the season opened. I spent the next winter breaking down his whole career and arguing at SoSH that he the real deal. That of course was Bronson Arroyo.
But the mention of "Jeff" gnawed at me and I had to figure out who were the two acclaimed pitching prospects I was being reminded of -- Jeff Sellers and Rob Woodward.
And that in turn led me to hunt down the name of another tantalizing pitching prospect, who took a line drive off the head in the first game of doubleheader against the Orioles, a game I was at, in the bleachers. And when I found it, I immediately recognized Tony Muser as the guy who hit him. What I had forgotten completely that he was 2 outs from a shutout and my buddy and I thought we were seeing a confirmation that he was going to be a reliable member of the rotation. That was June 31, 1975, and he was out until 9/1.
And has anyone in MLB history ever needed a nickname less than Dick Pole? I'm pretty sure you're misremembering at least one detail in this story...
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 26, 2022 6:41:24 GMT -5
Bello has been very impressive as of late. Good enough to figure into the rotation plans for 2023. Probably one of the only highlights this season.
As for Crawford and Winckowski? Crawford was solid and looked to be a back end starter for a bit. Winckowski looks like a JAG and I wouldn't be sad to see them trade him in the offseason. If he stays then you could probably do worse with a swing man.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 26, 2022 11:17:21 GMT -5
And of course we traded for him in 2003 when we needed another starter, and because they (apparently) didn't trust the former failed-prospect who was having a great season with the PawSox after being claimed on waivers the previous winter, kept under the radar in ST, and passed though waivers again just before the season opened. I spent the next winter breaking down his whole career and arguing at SoSH that he the real deal. That of course was Bronson Arroyo.
But the mention of "Jeff" gnawed at me and I had to figure out who were the two acclaimed pitching prospects I was being reminded of -- Jeff Sellers and Rob Woodward.
And that in turn led me to hunt down the name of another tantalizing pitching prospect, who took a line drive off the head in the first game of doubleheader against the Orioles, a game I was at, in the bleachers. And when I found it, I immediately recognized Tony Muser as the guy who hit him. What I had forgotten completely that he was 2 outs from a shutout and my buddy and I thought we were seeing a confirmation that he was going to be a reliable member of the rotation. That was June 31, 1975, and he was out until 9/1.
And has anyone in MLB history ever needed a nickname less than Dick Pole? I'm pretty sure you're misremembering at least one detail in this story... ….misremembering June 31… Suppan was taken by AZ in the expansion draft originally wasn’t he.
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,942
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2022 13:48:39 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure you're misremembering at least one detail in this story... ….misremembering June 31… Suppan was taken by AZ in the expansion draft originally wasn’t he. Hey, I remembered it was the last day of June!
I had to look up who we traded Suppan for, as I assumed ... in fact, he was the 3rd pick in the draft.
A fun thing to do: Just bring up b-Ref Sox page and go back in time and read the bottom of the lists of guys who plated and pitched. Go back far enough and it becomes mostly a mixture of guys you had forgotten but now remember, and guys that ring no bells at all.
What's disappeared from history is the list of failed Sox prospects from before the Baseball America era. I wonder, for instance, if anyone else on this board remembers Gage Naudain. I just looked him up; it seems as if he suffered a crippling injury in AA.
(Perhaps the only source for this is the Red Sox Yearbooks, because they had entries for everyone on the 40-man, and in the pre-draft days, that included all the major signings, because of the Bonus Rule. I have them starting in 1961 and maybe through the 70's.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 26, 2022 14:04:34 GMT -5
Just gonna say it... Freddy Sanchez deserved to be traded for a better player in return
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 26, 2022 17:04:34 GMT -5
Bello has 149 1/3 innings over three levels. I wonder how many more innings he gets? If he starts the through the end of the season, I would assume 2 more starts puts him at 160ish innings for the year. I guess that would prepare him to pitch 180ish innings in 2023?
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Post by seamus on Sept 26, 2022 17:58:40 GMT -5
Bello has 149 1/3 innings over three levels. I wonder how many more innings he gets? If he starts the through the end of the season, I would assume 2 more starts puts him at 160ish innings for the year. I guess that would prepare him to pitch 280ish innings in 2023? Honestly, I'm a big enough believer in Bello that I think 280 innings next year is plausible. That only requires facing 840 batters, after all. Cakewalk.
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Sept 26, 2022 20:36:50 GMT -5
Bello has 149 1/3 innings over three levels. I wonder how many more innings he gets? If he starts the through the end of the season, I would assume 2 more starts puts him at 160ish innings for the year. I guess that would prepare him to pitch 280ish innings in 2023? If he throws 280 pitches, he should have a shot at 384 strikeouts.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 26, 2022 20:56:43 GMT -5
Bello has 149 1/3 innings over three levels. I wonder how many more innings he gets? If he starts the through the end of the season, I would assume 2 more starts puts him at 160ish innings for the year. I guess that would prepare him to pitch 180ish innings in 2023? Typo….I meant to type 180ish innings for 2023, oops
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 26, 2022 20:58:28 GMT -5
Just gonna say it... Freddy Sanchez deserved to be traded for a better player in return I thought he was the future...
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 27, 2022 9:19:06 GMT -5
Bello has 149 1/3 innings over three levels. I wonder how many more innings he gets? If he starts the through the end of the season, I would assume 2 more starts puts him at 160ish innings for the year. I guess that would prepare him to pitch 180ish innings in 2023? He's already pitched 54 more innings than last year, they don't seem concerned with it this year, so would they even put a cap next year?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 27, 2022 9:25:49 GMT -5
Just gonna say it... Freddy Sanchez deserved to be traded for a better player in return I thought he was the future... It's actually hilarious, when I started a new job recently, the person I work and I were talking about baseball. I mentioned I was a sox fan, and then he asked if I ever heard of Freddy Sanchez, because he played with him in college.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 27, 2022 9:40:46 GMT -5
I thought he was the future... It's actually hilarious, when I started a new job recently, the person I work and I were talking about baseball. I mentioned I was a sox fan, and then he asked if I ever heard of Freddy Sanchez, because he played with him in college. Which one? There are 3. lol.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 27, 2022 11:06:44 GMT -5
It's actually hilarious, when I started a new job recently, the person I work and I were talking about baseball. I mentioned I was a sox fan, and then he asked if I ever heard of Freddy Sanchez, because he played with him in college. Which one? There are 3. lol. I believe he said it was Dallas Baptist. Really cool dude, with some good stories.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 1, 2022 10:57:14 GMT -5
Eovaldi’s become a go-to source of guidance throughout the year. “Since I came up, he has taken me under his wing,” Bello said. Tunneling, Bello said, has been a particularly important and ongoing conversation. Bello asked specifically about the way Eovaldi mixes his pitches to attack hitters, and Eovaldi talked about the importance of starting pitches toward the middle of the plate to that different pitch shapes can play off one another. Bello’s two-seamer and slider can split the plate from side to side. His four-seamer and changeup can create deception up and down. “That’s one of the things that stuck with me because he understands my repertoire and how I can attack hitters,” Bello said. theathletic.com/3646031/2022/10/01/brayan-bello-nathan-eovaldi-mentors/
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 14, 2022 20:47:40 GMT -5
But if Martinez actually does believe Bello is a more advanced 23-year-old, that certainly speaks to the optimism being warranted.
“He’s really up there in talent,” Martinez added, comparing Bello to Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz in the process.
“It’s really difficult to judge the talent, but without a doubt, he has the tools to become a Jon Lester, to become a Pedro Martinez, to become a Clay Buchholz, someone like that, that wasn’t that impressive early in their career with the Boston Red Sox. He has a very bright future.
Some might scoff at the Buchholz comparison, but it’s actually pretty apt. Buchholz was great in his first taste of the big leagues in 2007 — he threw a no-hitter — in just four starts. He got knocked around in 2008, though, but rebounded nicely. It’s easy to forget given how frustrating Buchholz could be over the course of his career, that he went on to win 68 games from 2009 through 2015 with a 3.67 ERA in 149 starts at the big league level.
If that’s the floor and the ceiling is Lester or, heaven forbid, Martinez, the Red Sox should feel quite good about having Bello in the fold for years to come.nesn.com/2022/10/next-pedro-martinez-hofer-gives-brayan-bello-highest-of-praise/How Bello didn't end up with an 8 ceiling is beyond my comprehension.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 14, 2022 21:45:15 GMT -5
But if Martinez actually does believe Bello is a more advanced 23-year-old, that certainly speaks to the optimism being warranted.
“He’s really up there in talent,” Martinez added, comparing Bello to Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz in the process.
“It’s really difficult to judge the talent, but without a doubt, he has the tools to become a Jon Lester, to become a Pedro Martinez, to become a Clay Buchholz, someone like that, that wasn’t that impressive early in their career with the Boston Red Sox. He has a very bright future.
Some might scoff at the Buchholz comparison, but it’s actually pretty apt. Buchholz was great in his first taste of the big leagues in 2007 — he threw a no-hitter — in just four starts. He got knocked around in 2008, though, but rebounded nicely. It’s easy to forget given how frustrating Buchholz could be over the course of his career, that he went on to win 68 games from 2009 through 2015 with a 3.67 ERA in 149 starts at the big league level.
If that’s the floor and the ceiling is Lester or, heaven forbid, Martinez, the Red Sox should feel quite good about having Bello in the fold for years to come.nesn.com/2022/10/next-pedro-martinez-hofer-gives-brayan-bello-highest-of-praise/How Bello didn't end up with an 8 ceiling is beyond my comprehension. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Hitters will make the adjustment to Bello by next season. How will Bello respond?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Oct 14, 2022 23:45:13 GMT -5
Maybe I am off base here, but if you were to go back even 10 years ago, and you had a prospect that sat at 97 and threw 4 pitches, 3 of which could be graded as plus on any given day, I think he would be a top 10 prospect in baseball. It really blows my mind just how much pitching has changed in the last decade that a guy like Bello isn't considered a can't miss prospect.
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