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Franchy Cordero, the enigma
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Post by incandenza on Jun 16, 2021 16:53:39 GMT -5
I dunno, Renfroe still seems like a platoon bat to me. He has a .642 OPS and 70 wRC+ against righties this season, and .708/85 for his career.
But I also have no problem with Franchy taking ABs away from Marwin or Arroyo (at least until Franchy proves again that he's still hopeless), and Santana seems like he might need the Triple-A tune-up more than Franchy at this point.
Franchy's career OPS vs RHP is .712 I have to admit not understanding the high-on-Franchy-low-on-Renfroe take. Franchy is younger, but Renfroe was a highly regarded prospect at one point (#41 on mlb in 2016) and had three decent seasons in San Diego. I can get being high on both or just Renfroe, I'm just not sure where the relative optimism for just Franchy comes from. I wouldn't say I'm that optimistic about Franchy. I just think if you trade for a guy, and you have 3 years of control with him, and he showed signs of life before being sent to AAA, and then he has a 1.300 OPS in AAA, and you have a bunch of dead weight at the bottom of your batting order anyway... then he should be given another shot. You can't just stow him in Worcester forever.
And with Renfroe it's not like I'd never bat him against righties, since he brings a lot of value on defense, so if he really has become a better hitter against righties he'd have ample opportunity to prove it. But there are plenty of reasons, espoused many times by different people here, to think that we don't really know what we have with Franchy, whereas Renfroe seems like a fairly known commodity at this point.
And but also, like I say, Franchy's PAs could come from Marwin or Kiké or Dalbec. That's the genius of all this positional versatility - you can shift the bad players around like squeezing a water balloon!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2021 11:19:09 GMT -5
Fun facts:
While Duran was off in the pre-Olympics, Franchy hit .378 / .410 / .838.
Since Duran returned:
.205 / .311 / .487 Duran .433 / .575 / .700 Franchy
With the off days, I would be surprised if Franchy did not take Yacksel's place on the 26 starting tomorrow, leaving us to wonder: when was the last time two players with first names unique in MLB history were swapped in a roster move? One trusts that some team will option a Bill and recall a Jack on the same day for balance.
When they need the 14th pitcher again? I think Santana is a goner. I don't believe he was signed because they saw upside in him that other teams couldn't see (a la Pivetta and, yes, Franchy), because the signing was so late; I think it was a pure depth move. They can get someone interesting for him; he's not needed with Kiké and Marwin here (the latter for the time being) and Arroyo playing so well.
Of course there's room for him. OF versus RHP is Franchy, Verdugo, Renfroe.
Renfroe is .333 / .385 / .500 in 52 PA vs. RHP since May 25, and that's .321 / .373 / .498 expected.
xwOBA / wOBA on contact (PA)
.415 / .399 (17) Pull .611 / .582 (13) Straight .254 / .378 (7) Oppo
And he should hit leadoff. 8% better leading off an inning in his career than overall (.809 vs. .774 OPS).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 17, 2021 11:21:54 GMT -5
Pitchers need to stay down for 15 days now after being optioned. Valdez can't come back until next Friday and that'd keep Rios down until July 2. I can't see them making that move for Cordero this soon.
If they're going to recall Cordero, I think it's straight for Santana.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 17, 2021 12:18:51 GMT -5
Pitchers need to stay down for 15 days now after being optioned. Valdez can't come back until next Friday and that'd keep Rios down until July 2. I can't see them making that move for Cordero this soon. If they're going to recall Cordero, I think it's straight for Santana. I think Franchy he has made dramatic improvements in AAA, particularly with his BB percentage, which he has actually doubled over his career percentage. He is also cut his strikeouts down dramatically, and this ban on sticky substances may help him at the MLB level. But I would be opposed to bringing him up unless Cora gave him regular at bats. I don’t know if Cora could sit his binkies Keké and Marwin something like that. Consider that, on any other team, Arroyo would be the starter at 2nd base with the higher ave and OBP than both Marwin and Kiké. Cora is resisting that, so I wonder if he would likely resist starting Franchy. I wonder if Bloom has the balls and the humility to pull a Billy Beane “Trade Jeremy Giambi” move and trade Kiké while eating some salary (Marwin seems to have more versatility so I’d keep him of the two). But I’m all in on Franchy coming up, with this caveat.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 17, 2021 12:28:59 GMT -5
Pitchers need to stay down for 15 days now after being optioned. Valdez can't come back until next Friday and that'd keep Rios down until July 2. I can't see them making that move for Cordero this soon. If they're going to recall Cordero, I think it's straight for Santana. I think Franchy he has made dramatic improvements in AAA, particularly with his BB percentage, which he has actually doubled over his career percentage. He is also cut his strikeouts down dramatically, and this ban on sticky substances may help him at the MLB level. But I would be opposed to bringing him up unless Cora gave him regular at bats. I don’t know if Cora could sit his binkies Keké and Marwin something like that. Consider that, on any other team, Arroyo would be the starter at 2nd base with the higher ave and OBP than both Marwin and Kiké. Cora is resisting that, so I wonder if he would likely resist starting Franchy. I wonder if Bloom has the balls and the humility to pull a Billy Beane “Trade Jeremy Giambi” move and trade Kiké while eating some salary (Marwin seems to have more versatility so I’d keep him of the two). But I’m all in on Franchy coming up, with this caveat. I don’t see the resistance to making Arroyo the everyday 2B that you are, it seems like they’ve pretty much done that just from checking the game logs since his return from injury. He didn’t play the 15th and pinch hit yesterday (and there could even be an unconsidered explanation for that) but aside from that he’s pretty much been the full time 2B
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 17, 2021 12:34:08 GMT -5
Pitchers need to stay down for 15 days now after being optioned. Valdez can't come back until next Friday and that'd keep Rios down until July 2. I can't see them making that move for Cordero this soon. If they're going to recall Cordero, I think it's straight for Santana. I think Franchy he has made dramatic improvements in AAA, particularly with his BB percentage, which he has actually doubled over his career percentage. He is also cut his strikeouts down dramatically, and this ban on sticky substances may help him at the MLB level. But I would be opposed to bringing him up unless Cora gave him regular at bats. I don’t know if Cora could sit his binkies Keké and Marwin something like that. Consider that, on any other team, Arroyo would be the starter at 2nd base with the higher ave and OBP than both Marwin and Kiké. Cora is resisting that, so I wonder if he would likely resist starting Franchy. I wonder if Bloom has the balls and the humility to pull a Billy Beane “Trade Jeremy Giambi” move and trade Kiké while eating some salary (Marwin seems to have more versatility so I’d keep him of the two). But I’m all in on Franchy coming up, with this caveat. I’m not a Kiké superfan or anything, but I feel like maybe the backlash has gone a bit too far. He is not a great leadoff hitter, sure, but I don’t think Cora is ignoring obvious answers. Everything he could do has a price. And Kiké is not a world-beating hitter… he is, unsurprisingly, what he has always been. This is why I was not thrilled by his signing. Buuuutttt… a) he’s here, so that is water under the bridge; b) he has been solid in CF; and c) he is not a *terrible* hitter, by any stretch. I love me JBJ, I mean *love* — but we endured worse hitting with him than we do with Kiké. I am entirely cool with him as the regular CF this season and then next year… see how it shapes up.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 17, 2021 12:38:22 GMT -5
I'm shocked he's still in the minors, his comp going forward is .302, .369 .568. That slugging percentage is only 15th best all time and he hits the ball harder. Trout is the only active player with a higher slugging percentage and he's 12th all time. Those were the most impressive 14 PA of all time it seems. He went from below average hitter to all time great slugger in four games.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 17, 2021 14:35:12 GMT -5
I think Franchy he has made dramatic improvements in AAA, particularly with his BB percentage, which he has actually doubled over his career percentage. He is also cut his strikeouts down dramatically, and this ban on sticky substances may help him at the MLB level. But I would be opposed to bringing him up unless Cora gave him regular at bats. I donât know if Cora could sit his binkies Keké and Marwin something like that. Consider that, on any other team, Arroyo would be the starter at 2nd base with the higher ave and OBP than both Marwin and Kiké. Cora is resisting that, so I wonder if he would likely resist starting Franchy. I wonder if Bloom has the balls and the humility to pull a Billy Beane âTrade Jeremy Giambiâ move and trade Kiké while eating some salary (Marwin seems to have more versatility so Iâd keep him of the two). But Iâm all in on Franchy coming up, with this caveat. Iâm not a Kiké superfan or anything, but I feel like maybe the backlash has gone a bit too far. He is not a great leadoff hitter, sure, but I donât think Cora is ignoring obvious answers. Everything he could do has a price. And Kiké is not a world-beating hitter⦠he is, unsurprisingly, what he has always been. This is why I was not thrilled by his signing. Buuuutttt⦠a) heâs here, so that is water under the bridge; b) he has been solid in CF; and c) he is not a *terrible* hitter, by any stretch. I love me JBJ, I mean *love* â but we endured worse hitting with him than we do with Kiké. I am entirely cool with him as the regular CF this season and then next year⦠see how it shapes up. Seriously? I kinda get the JBJ hate around these parts (his cold streaks are freezing cold) but this statement is revisionist history. Considering that Kiké was brought here to hit leadoff and the leadoff's hitter mission is getting on base. JBJ OBP during his Red Sox years: .317 Hernandez OBP: .279 KH has been very very bad, the team leadoff spot ranks last in the majors in OBP at .285 so he's dragging them down. He's been beyond mediocre and deserves all the critics he's getting.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 17, 2021 14:51:27 GMT -5
Iâm not a Kiké superfan or anything, but I feel like maybe the backlash has gone a bit too far. He is not a great leadoff hitter, sure, but I donât think Cora is ignoring obvious answers. Everything he could do has a price. And Kiké is not a world-beating hitter⦠he is, unsurprisingly, what he has always been. This is why I was not thrilled by his signing. Buuuutttt⦠a) heâs here, so that is water under the bridge; b) he has been solid in CF; and c) he is not a *terrible* hitter, by any stretch. I love me JBJ, I mean *love* â but we endured worse hitting with him than we do with Kiké. I am entirely cool with him as the regular CF this season and then next year⦠see how it shapes up. Seriously? I kinda get the JBJ hate around these parts (his cold streaks are freezing cold) but this statement is revisionist history. Considering that Kiké was brought here to hit leadoff and the leadoff's hitter mission is getting on base. JBJ OBP during his Red Sox years: .317 Hernandez OBP: .279 KH has been very very bad, the team leadoff spot ranks last in the majors in OBP at .285 so he's dragging them down. He's been beyond mediocre and deserves all the critics he's getting. I said I love JBJ. He is one of my three favorite Sox (all ex-). I meant his long cold stretches.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 17, 2021 14:57:42 GMT -5
I will now consider manfred a Keké Hernadez fanboy from this point forward /s
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 17, 2021 15:04:20 GMT -5
I will now consider manfred a Keké Hernadez fanboy from this point forward /s Tattoo forthcoming.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 17, 2021 15:36:41 GMT -5
Also not for nothing but JBJ is .153/.226/.270 this year
Franchy >, Kiké >
JBJ defense still pretty tho
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 17, 2021 17:14:55 GMT -5
Also not for nothing but JBJ is .153/.226/.270 this year Franchy >, Kiké > JBJ defense still pretty tho And any JBJ "hate" referenced relates solely to the frustration with his wildly inconsistent bat. He was (is) a class guy. I would love to know the cause of such hitting problems...a deep mystery for a guy who can run down balls from all angles while the ground 'jiggles' his eyes as his feet pound the ground. I've seen him easily 'catch' the ball with bunt attempts. So his poor bat contact can't be a coordination or eyesight issue.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 18, 2021 10:02:12 GMT -5
I think the only question is whether to bring Franchy up soon because he might help, or bring him up later because he might be better in the long run if the good habits he is working on now become more firmly entrenched. I think it would actually be good if he could go 2 for 15 for Worcester one week and then bounce back from that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 18, 2021 18:29:49 GMT -5
Pitchers need to stay down for 15 days now after being optioned. Valdez can't come back until next Friday and that'd keep Rios down until July 2. I can't see them making that move for Cordero this soon. If they're going to recall Cordero, I think it's straight for Santana. This is like the 2,834th time I've forgotten the 15-day thing. Or at least the 3rd. Yeah, with Bazardo and Hpuck out they don't have the depth to do the shuttle thing. I think they may give Santana a look here for the rest of the road trip, although I'd really like to see Franchy against the Rays.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 28, 2021 9:46:41 GMT -5
The Santana experiment should be over and Franchy should get a second chance NOW!!
There I started it... todays regularly scheduled Franchy debate.
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Post by benzinger on Jun 28, 2021 9:54:27 GMT -5
The Santana experiment should be over and Franchy should get a second chance NOW!! There I started it... todays regularly scheduled Franchy debate. Forget Franchy. Trade him at the deadline for reinforcements. He’s done a lot to increase his value. Bring up Duran and let him bat leadoff for the rest of the season. Duran-Verdugo-JDM-Bogaerts-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez-Marwin/Kikè-Dalbec/Arroyo. Make it happen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 28, 2021 9:57:53 GMT -5
The Santana experiment should be over and Franchy should get a second chance NOW!! There I started it... todays regularly scheduled Franchy debate. Forget Franchy. Trade him at the deadline for reinforcements. He’s done a lot to increase his value. Bring up Duran and let him bat leadoff for the rest of the season. Duran-Verdugo-JDM-Bogaerts-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez-Marwin/Kikè-Dalbec/Arroyo. Make it happen. I don't know that mashing in a hitter's ballpark in AAA after failing spectacularly in the majors would do a lot to increase Franchy's trade value. It would increase interest for teams looking to take a flyer but I don't think his trade value would be higher now than it was before the season started. And re: Duran, yup, yup, and yup.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 28, 2021 10:24:15 GMT -5
He didn't fail any more "spectacularly" than Renfroe did to start the season. And like him, he was starting to mash when he was sent down. You'll also want to check out Duran's splits when it comes to discussing a "hitter's ballpark".
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Post by benzinger on Jun 28, 2021 10:41:30 GMT -5
Forget Franchy. Trade him at the deadline for reinforcements. He’s done a lot to increase his value. Bring up Duran and let him bat leadoff for the rest of the season. Duran-Verdugo-JDM-Bogaerts-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez-Marwin/Kikè-Dalbec/Arroyo. Make it happen. I don't know that mashing in a hitter's ballpark in AAA after failing spectacularly in the majors would do a lot to increase Franchy's trade value. It would increase interest for teams looking to take a flyer but I don't think his trade value would be higher now than it was before the season started. And re: Duran, yup, yup, and yup. OK. Then let Franchy compete for the Triple Crown in Worcester. I just need to see Duran in Boston every day. I think then need to show some urgency and make sure they win the division, because they really want to avoid a Wild Card scenario. Get Duran up. He’s better than 3 or 4 guys they are running out there every day.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 28, 2021 10:43:58 GMT -5
He didn't fail any more "spectacularly" than Renfroe did to start the season. And like him, he was starting to mash when he was sent down. You'll also want to check out Duran's splits when it comes to discussing a "hitter's ballpark". Renfroe starting turning his season around in Arlington in early May if I remember the timeline correctly. Franchy was still struggling mightily. Franchy hit his bomb in Philly just before they sent him down, but that didn't make me feel that he was automatically on the verge of consistently raking. I'm glad to see that he's killing AAA pitching, so I'm all for giving him another chance. There is obviously talent there, but up to the point he got sent down he was horrible. The Red Sox' patience with him at that point ran out and they decided to give Santana a look, which is a completely defensible position (I know a lot of people on this board, myself included, were cool with a Franchy for Santana switch). The fact of the matter is that Franchy did fail and rather badly. If he hadn't, he wouldn't have lost playing time and gotten sent down. Just because he didn't succeed, doesn't mean that the light bulb can't go on. Maybe it was just before he got sent down. Or maybe he just did well in a very small sample size and left everybody with the impression of a mammoth HR, then went down to AAA and raked because he's too good to be in AAA. But he still has yet to prove he can consistently hit major league pitching. As far as Duran goes, I think it's a little different even if his raking is occurring at home. First, he can play CF, albeit still learning, and second he can be an improvement in the leadoff spot even if he isn't setting the world on fire as that is a low bar to clear given what Red Sox leadoff hitters have done to date. I think Duran's threshold to help the Red Sox is a little different than Franchy's is. That said, I would have been interested in seeing Franchy get the callup rather than Chavis.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 28, 2021 14:53:42 GMT -5
I think the reason they sent Cordero down is exactly because he was starting to hit. It wasn't just the HR blast either. He'd hit three doubles and was slugging over .700, rocketing balls down the right-field line. It was mid-May when he started doing that and they sent him down right after the home run. With the long layoff and the intermittent at bats with the Sox, they likely wanted him to keep swinging the bat. The team has a number of outfield options drawing free-agent paychecks, and they needed to give them work to see what they have. That didn't leave a lot of room to develop his hitting.
So what is he, a quint-A player? Where do you put a guy who's mashing this hard at the AAA level? He may be trade bait, but if he were to keep doing this on some MLB team, I can only imagine the howls on this board. The Sox have a problem, a good one but a problem. They have more outfielders - actual and potential - than outfield slots. What comes next?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 28, 2021 15:31:32 GMT -5
Moved all the Cordero-related posts into his enigma thread.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 28, 2021 19:16:03 GMT -5
Anybody see that Wander went hitless and was down to 105 after that first night? Another one having trouble making the jump this year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2021 9:58:46 GMT -5
Updated look at Franchy's season. Each pair of lines is expected, then actual. Through April 10, 17 PA
.209 / .209 / .312 = .221 xwOBA
.353 / .353 / .471 = .355 wOBA. Hit some balls in the right places.
April 11 to May 2, 45 PA
.078 / .161 / .090 = .132
.075 / .159 / .075 = .123. An incredibly bad run, on which everyone seems to have imprinted permanently.
At this point he's at .158 / .213 / .193, with a .188 wOBA and .157 xwOBA. A guy with a .406 OPS ... who had been lucky!
May 5 to May 12, 25 PA .232 / .308 / .313 = .292 .120 / .200 / .160 = .177 The thing is, the team had a .314 xwOBA in the games he played. And in a sample this size, lots of guys have good and bad luck. The team in particular had bad luck or karma: Name PA wOBA xwOBA Gonzalez, Marwin 31 .345 .385 Bogaerts, Xander 28 .315 .368 Martinez, J.D. 31 .238 .345 Verdugo, Alex 28 .176 .304 Dalbec, Bobby 15 .326 .303 Cordero, Franchy 25 .177 .292 Renfroe, Hunter 25 .218 .279 Devers, Rafael 28 .395 .275 Vázquez, Christian 20 .221 .163 This is promising. .292 is subpar, but it's way better than .157. He's ahead of three teammates who are solid, very good, and on their way to legendary.
Six of his 15 balls in play were hit 100+. But he couldn't get his launch angle into a sweet spot; one was at 48 degrees and another was -19 and both were easy outs (.273 and .149 xBA). The other 4 were liners (5, 11, 11, 13 degrees) with 3.2 expected hits and 4.3 expected TB, and that's what he got, rounded down of course. But you can see that he's already .65 hits below expectations. His other 9 balls in play had 1.85 expected hits and he got 0. Cheap hits are a normal part of the game. But every one of Franchy's balls in play with <.500 xBA were outs, as was one with a .620, the one LD out. If he gets the 3 cheap hits he deserved, his slash lime goes up instead of further down. Everyone noticed the four line drives with an average EV of 105.8 (three on May 6, 1 on May 9). Maybe more people would have recognized them as a sign of progress if his numbers had improved. May 15 to May 23, 15 PA
.378 / .378 / .807 = .495
.333 / .333 / .733 = .447 The Sox bats were rocking in these 4 games , and in fact he had the 5th best wOBA of the 9 guys who played the most. But he was second in xwOBA: Name PA wOBA xwOBA Bogaerts, Xander 12 .710 .590 Cordero, Franchy 15 .447 .495 Santana, Danny 7 .493 .477 Verdugo, Alex 10 .588 .442 Hernández, Enrique 14 .538 .405 Vázquez, Christian 12 .171 .388 Martinez, J.D. 14 .322 .363 Dalbec, Bobby 16 .280 .353 Devers, Rafael 17 .534 .340 Gonzalez, Marwin 13 .124 .255 Renfroe, Hunter 8 .087 .121
He was then sent down, where he's been the third best hitter in all of AAA.
More tomorrow: his AAA vs. MLB history according to Davenport Peak Translations (which so far show absolutely no AAAA effect), plate discipline, etc.
But I'll note now that he had only 206 PA in AAA before his 2017 rookie season with the Padres -- that's not a late-season call-up to reward his .972 OPS in AAA, it was late May to late June, and he killed AAA after he was sent back down. And in the three injury-plagued seasons between his mastering AAA and our trading for him, he had a 105 wRC+ in 216 PA in MLB.
So the whole "he's terrible because of his career MLB totals" (a/k/a the mandred Report) is bogus -- it includes a premature stint in MLB as a rookie, and a terrible stretch with us in which he was very likely trying to learn one or more changes to his swing and/or approach.
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