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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 10, 2021 14:20:09 GMT -5
Winnahs win because winning is done by WINNAHS!
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 10, 2021 14:30:38 GMT -5
IMHO, this is the perfect time to extend E-Rod.
Maybe he would take the 4 yrs, $70m that Lester turned down?
(only half-joking...)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 10, 2021 14:35:34 GMT -5
(... about the contract terms, not about extending him...)
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Post by unitspin on Jul 10, 2021 14:49:36 GMT -5
No a terrible take is someone calling erod a top 5 pitcher in the mlb. Now that's a terrible take. Quit while you’re behind There’s more to baseball than the completely tangible results. Didn’t think that needed to be said. Baseball is a pretty easy game, you win or lose. At this point erod is a losing player didn't think that needed to be said. |
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 10, 2021 15:03:30 GMT -5
Losers lose because losing is done by LOSERS!
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 10, 2021 15:07:13 GMT -5
One of the major factors that help him is his age.He is still in his twenties. But his value took a dip. You look at this team and a lot of moving parts the next two years. I hope they extend him but not at 2019 Erod.
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Post by unitspin on Jul 10, 2021 15:47:51 GMT -5
Losers lose because losing is done by LOSERS! Exactly like when a player chokes in the playoffs and they throw their glove on the ground like a little kid, loser mentality. |
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 10, 2021 15:53:13 GMT -5
If you go by mlb statcast expected data, Erod has been the best red sox starter this year. His ERA is more than 2 points higher than his expected ERA. His xERA is 3.4 ....yes he really has been THAT unlucky. baseballsavant.mlb.com Red Sox starters Unlucky is a term used by ppl that lose. I've never heard someone raising a trophy talking about being unlucky. Truth of the matter is he never was that good to begin with. He is an even war half way through the season. A replaceable player he is. Here's a good bet for folks on the forum to take. Who do you think will have the better ERA the rest of the year? Eduardo or Perez? Eduardo: 5.52 ERA, 3.38 expected Perez: 3.89 ERA, 5.15 expected |
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Post by kjkramer on Jul 10, 2021 16:10:13 GMT -5
IMHO, this is the perfect time to extend E-Rod. Maybe he would take the 4 yrs, $70m that Lester turned down? (only half-joking...) My limits are 4/64 with a club option year for 18 million |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2021 16:29:18 GMT -5
IMHO, this is the perfect time to extend E-Rod. Maybe he would take the 4 yrs, $70m that Lester turned down? (only half-joking...) I'm not even sure which way you're joking with that number, but it would be an absolute no-brainer to sign him for 4/70. I'd do 6/110 or so.
If they wanted to go another direction Stroman might be interesting, but also probably more expensive.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 10, 2021 16:37:15 GMT -5
Stroman is the exact opposite of ERod this year - solid ERA but terrible expected ERA. 2.55 ERA, 4.54 expected.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 10, 2021 16:41:33 GMT -5
Depending on how he pitches the rest of the way, I have to wonder if he'll get offers for more than 2-3 years. Would a team look at his numbers, conclude that he was unlucky, and still give him 4+ years?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 10, 2021 17:03:22 GMT -5
Quit while you’re behind There’s more to baseball than the completely tangible results. Didn’t think that needed to be said. Baseball is a pretty easy game, you win or lose. At this point erod is a losing player didn't think that needed to be said. Lmao ok |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2021 17:03:53 GMT -5
Stroman is the exact opposite of ERod this year - solid ERA but terrible expected ERA. 2.55 ERA, 4.54 expected. True, but his FIP and xFIP are in the 3.60s and that's basically where he's been his entire career. A cursory look at batted ball stuff suggests to me that the xERA is the outlier in this case.
I think he and Rodriguez are very comparable, but if the latter could be had for a bad luck discount I'd certainly be happy with that. On the other hand, Rodriguez is two years younger and that might push his price in the other direction.
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Post by unitspin on Jul 10, 2021 17:44:23 GMT -5
Unlucky is a term used by ppl that lose. I've never heard someone raising a trophy talking about being unlucky. Truth of the matter is he never was that good to begin with. He is an even war half way through the season. A replaceable player he is. Here's a good bet for folks on the forum to take. Who do you think will have the better ERA the rest of the year? Eduardo or Perez? Eduardo: 5.52 ERA, 3.38 expected Perez: 3.89 ERA, 5.15 expected At the start of the season everyone's talking erod is an elite pitcher and perez is a 5 starter. So id hope he outperforms him or why are we talking about resigning a 5 starter? His h per 9 is the highest of his career along with his hr per 9. His era+ is below league average by alot. But he's just unlucky..... |
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 10, 2021 18:15:10 GMT -5
You kind of played yourself here...h/9 and ERA (+) are flawed metrics because they do not account for luck...that is kind of the point we are trying to make. The only reason why stats like fip, xfip, siera, xwboa or xslg were invented is to better quantify a players performance than those stats do.
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Post by unitspin on Jul 10, 2021 18:34:44 GMT -5
You kind of played yourself here...h/9 and ERA (+) are flawed metrics because they do not account for luck...that is kind of the point we are trying to make. The only reason why stats like fip, xfip, siera, xwboa or xslg were invented is to better quantify a players performance than those stats do. He has the lowest war in the rotation??? Do we just dismiss all stats unless it makes the fanboys happy. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 10, 2021 18:38:15 GMT -5
Quit while you’re behind There’s more to baseball than the completely tangible results. Didn’t think that needed to be said. Baseball is a pretty easy game, you win or lose. At this point erod is a losing player didn't think that needed to be said. He’s literally 6-5 right now, and 57-36 for his career. Has a ring. A lot of winning for a loser |
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 10, 2021 18:39:39 GMT -5
Unlucky is a term used by ppl that lose. I've never heard someone raising a trophy talking about being unlucky. Truth of the matter is he never was that good to begin with. He is an even war half way through the season. A replaceable player he is. Here's a good bet for folks on the forum to take. Who do you think will have the better ERA the rest of the year? Eduardo or Perez? Eduardo: 5.52 ERA, 3.38 expected Perez: 3.89 ERA, 5.15 expected ERod |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2021 18:45:01 GMT -5
You kind of played yourself here...h/9 and ERA (+) are flawed metrics because they do not account for luck...that is kind of the point we are trying to make. The only reason why stats like fip, xfip, siera, xwboa or xslg were invented is to better quantify a players performance than those stats do. He has the lowest war in the rotation??? Do we just dismiss all stats unless it makes the fanboys happy. Look, I appreciate your sabermetric approach, and you can bring in all the fancy stats you want, but at the end of the day the Red Sox are 11-6 in his starts. To me, that's the only statistic that matters: the W's. He puts the team in a position to win. Goes out there and gives it his all. Just gives the team a chance to win. Heart of a champion. And he has the ring to prove it.
Clearly better numbers than Gerrit Cole - where it counts.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 10, 2021 19:52:20 GMT -5
He has the lowest war in the rotation??? Do we just dismiss all stats unless it makes the fanboys happy. Look, I appreciate your sabermetric approach, and you can bring in all the fancy stats you want, but at the end of the day the Red Sox are 11-6 in his starts. To me, that's the only statistic that matters: the W's. He puts the team in a position to win. Goes out there and gives it his all. Just gives the team a chance to win. Heart of a champion. And he has the ring to prove it.
Clearly better numbers than Gerrit Cole - where it counts.
I pretty much agree that ERod has been a winner throughout his career. I am a little less enthusiastic about his results this year. Luck or not, he has a crappy ERA so far, and the Sox winning record in games he started is, in no small measure, owing to both the quality of the bullpen and the Red Sox rather delightful record of come from behind wins. That said, I would urge patience with ERod because there is no apparent reason to believe that his ability is somehow greatly diminished permanently. Not without more convincing proof at this point. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 10, 2021 22:48:53 GMT -5
Look, I appreciate your sabermetric approach, and you can bring in all the fancy stats you want, but at the end of the day the Red Sox are 11-6 in his starts. To me, that's the only statistic that matters: the W's. He puts the team in a position to win. Goes out there and gives it his all. Just gives the team a chance to win. Heart of a champion. And he has the ring to prove it.
Clearly better numbers than Gerrit Cole - where it counts.
I pretty much agree that ERod has been a winner throughout his career. I am a little less enthusiastic about his results this year. Luck or not, he has a crappy ERA so far, and the Sox winning record in games he started is, in no small measure, owing to both the quality of the bullpen and the Red Sox rather delightful record of come from behind wins. That said, I would urge patience with ERod because there is no apparent reason to believe that his ability is somehow greatly diminished permanently. Not without more convincing proof at this point. In the month of June, the Sox were 5-0 when E-Rod started. Of course it didn't hurt that they scored 7, 12, 10, 9, and 9 runs in those games...
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Post by unitspin on Jul 10, 2021 23:44:35 GMT -5
He has the lowest war in the rotation??? Do we just dismiss all stats unless it makes the fanboys happy. Look, I appreciate your sabermetric approach, and you can bring in all the fancy stats you want, but at the end of the day the Red Sox are 11-6 in his starts. To me, that's the only statistic that matters: the W's. He puts the team in a position to win. Goes out there and gives it his all. Just gives the team a chance to win. Heart of a champion. And he has the ring to prove it.
Clearly better numbers than Gerrit Cole - where it counts.
Yes yes totally better then the guy that just threw a 3 hit complete game shutout to beat Houston single handlily. The same team that skull stomped erod twice this year. I mean it was prob all luck bcs on Saturday night games at Fenway in June when the temp is over 70 erod is the best in the game. Great take...... |
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 11, 2021 1:37:23 GMT -5
Going back to ERod, the reason he's struggling is two-fold:
- He's the worst pitcher in baseball for BABIP. That's generally luck, they are hitting the ball where the players aren't.
- He's 2nd worse in baseball at leaving men on base this year at 64.5%. He's generally in the mid-70s.
Both of those almost always normalize and are significantly above his career numbers, so it's frustrating to see you completely dismiss people who are calling him unlucky and they double down by calling him a loser. It's such a terrible take on an argument that in my opinion has some legs even if it's still the counter opinion. Here's how I'd frame it:
Even though he has career-best K and BB numbers, his OPS-against with men-on-base is 0.900, which is the root cause of the low strand rate and high ERA. It's gotten worse by month (.757 Apr, .854 May, 1.240 Jun) and worse as he goes through the order (.791 1st time, .910 2nd time, 1.156 3rd time). I'm not convinced this is entirely luck, there could be something around pitching in the stretch that they need to work through with him.
My guess is that he's going to work this out by year-end (FWIW, July is .626 in 16 PAs) but if he doesn't that would likely give me some pause. I wouldn't rule out Covid still impacting him this year. I could see something correlated to stamina that is causing him to struggle the 2nd/3rd time through the order and/or in the innings where he's pushing 20+ pitches. He just can't seem to get that big out while pitching from the stretch.
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 11, 2021 7:03:37 GMT -5
You kind of played yourself here...h/9 and ERA (+) are flawed metrics because they do not account for luck...that is kind of the point we are trying to make. The only reason why stats like fip, xfip, siera, xwboa or xslg were invented is to better quantify a players performance than those stats do. He has the lowest war in the rotation??? Do we just dismiss all stats unless it makes the fanboys happy. We do NOT "dismiss all stats"... These are Erod's seasonal stats: ERA FIP xFIP xERA SIERA 5.52 3.65 3.38 3.38 3.49 4 out of those 5 are remarkably consistent...i am simply dismissing the outlier (that also happens to be a flawed metric). A look at his career h/9 and BABIP numbers:  You see the correlation? As for the WAR dilemma: I assume you looked at baseball-reference WAR? Baseball reference has him at 0.0 WAR, fangraphs has him at 1.7 (that would make him the RS second best starter). Both sites use different metrics to calculate WAR (FG uses FIP, BR uses RA9)...and again...flawed metrics (better than ERA though). A WAR based on xERA would be nice... |
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