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Trade deadline (2021): thoughts/strategy/predictions
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 13, 2021 16:19:30 GMT -5
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2021 16:25:13 GMT -5
Maybe one school of thought could be that if they sign Hamels should he impress they can think about trading Perez (or less likely Richards) to free up some money for a trade while staying under. Maybe they're thinking a quintet of Sale/Eovaldi/E-Rod/Pivetta/Hamels? I'm guessing Houck will be a bullpen guy this season. If they traded Perez that would give Richards another life in the rotation at least until Hamels was ready. Or maybe it's nothing more than due diligence, which is probably the case.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 17:39:28 GMT -5
That was my thought, as well. Not sure the other guys have much value, but Lugo seemed well thought of going into his draft. Maybe he'd be a piece somebody would consider a "get" in a trade. Not that you'd assume Mayer is a lock, but he's as close to consensus 1/1 as you can be without actually being it (rankings-wise), so an organization would be forgiven for clearing his path through the system and using those who would have played his position to add to the major league team. Especially considering you have an all star at that position at the major league level for the foreseeable future. Lugo and Flores are struggling in the low minors. Their value is low. Meanwhile Cannon is a 2b and Howlett is a 3b. They may be trade bait at some point like a 3rd or 4th player in a trade but what does Mayer, a SS have to do with them? Nothing I would think. Indeed, the pure SS depth in the system is quite thin. Best kid as far as I can tell is Bonaci but I don't think you trade your only other guy.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 17:52:20 GMT -5
Interesting indeed, i'm surprised nobody came up with him until now. I don't think it would even take that much to get him. Durability: He is somewhat injury prone. Most career AB per season 421 (on pace for more this season) Stats: he is a bit of an oddball. His BABIP is very high (.383) but statcast supports his stats. Courtesy of 52.8% HardHit%. OBP xwOBA.387 .373
SLG xSLG .481 .487
Position: Plays OF corners + 1B
Conclusion: He is somewhat of discount (injury prone) righty Joey Gallo.
Team politics: Dalbec has been getting better. If you trade for a 1B now, you basically have to trade Dalbec. Or else you sends a weird signal. He has 2 more arbitration years. Which would block Casas. But you could just trade him when the time comes.
Interesting indeed!
I had him in mind but he's a RH batter and I figure that Chaim is looking for a LH hitting 1b. I was under the thought that he's not looking to block or deal away Dalbec at this moment and that Dalbec is somebody they'd give another year to improve, but then again I wouldn't be shocked if they did trade Dalbec away at some point. I just don't think it's this July. I'll see if Bloom proves me wrong on this. The truth of the matter is that I'm not at all sold on Dalbec. He's not hitting enough HRs to offset the strikeouts and worse, with his BA as low as it is, he's not taking walks, so his OBP is terrible. Don't know if it gets better. I'd think the Sox would get him a LH hitting complement and then try again with him next season, but I could be mistaken with that impression. Unlike Dalbec, Cooper can hit RHP, so he eliminates the need for a platoon.
To me, the bigger problem with Dalbec not walking enough is that it invites pitchers to throw him chase pitches and he too often rewards them for it. If he had a better eye at the plate and took some walks, he would see fewer of those pitches and make the pitcher come into the zone more often, which would allow his power to play up that much more.
I also agree with the idea that if you're bringing in Cooper, you may as well ship Dalbec out. Maybe MIA likes Dalbec's upside and three extra years of control (compared to Cooper) enough to take Bobby back as part of the deal.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 18:06:57 GMT -5
Let's talk "you gotta give up something good to get something good" types of trades.
First, who's out there that is worth giving up something good? Scherzer? Kimbrel? (I don't think he actually blew a save in the 2018 playoffs, did he? He's also dealing right now...) Nelly Cruz? (where to put him? How about Julio to LF, Doogie to CF and Enrique to 2B?) Starling Marte?
Second, who are you willing to give up out of the SP Top 10? For me it's Downs (just can't get past the name) and Groome (clock ticking).
Thoughts?
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 14, 2021 1:44:43 GMT -5
Maybe one school of thought could be that if they sign Hamels should he impress they can think about trading Perez (or less likely Richards) to free up some money for a trade while staying under. Maybe they're thinking a quintet of Sale/Eovaldi/E-Rod/Pivetta/Hamels? I'm guessing Houck will be a bullpen guy this season. If they traded Perez that would give Richards another life in the rotation at least until Hamels was ready. Or maybe it's nothing more than due diligence, which is probably the case. ericmvan brought up the idea of trading Perez. forum.soxprospects.com/post/466196The article itself tempers expetations though "As teams will inevitably be revealed as being part of this showcase, it should be noted ... many clubs send evaluators to these showcases as a normal order of business." So it's a long shot...again.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 14, 2021 2:01:06 GMT -5
Let's talk "you gotta give up something good to get something good" types of trades. First, who's out there that is worth giving up something good? Scherzer? Kimbrel? (I don't think he actually blew a save in the 2018 playoffs, did he? He's also dealing right now...) Nelly Cruz? (where to put him? How about Julio to LF, Doogie to CF and Enrique to 2B?) Starling Marte? Second, who are you willing to give up out of the SP Top 10? For me it's Downs (just can't get past the name) and Groome (clock ticking). Thoughts? Some of this has been discussed in the previous 6 pages. Everyone wants to get "the big guy" but i don't see i happening this year. At least not for a half season rental. I can only imagine Bloom parting with bigger prospects for a long term upgrade. Scherzer: might become available again, the nats probably want him to finish his career as a nat and IF he becomes available it's going to be a bidding war. As much as is like mad max...i cant see Bloom paying an inflated price. Kimbrel: stat-wire, sure, but kimbrel and boston don't mix well anymore..on a personal level Cruz: he is a DH at this point...and we have the second best DH in the mlb...after ohtani Outfield: verdugo/kiké/renfroe just are too good...we can't even find room for our MLB-ready #2 prospect in the outfield So...i don't see it
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Post by jmei on Jul 14, 2021 6:32:32 GMT -5
I wonder if Freddie Freeman might be available if the Braves fall out of the race. He’s a free agent next year and Atlanta is hanging around .500 and, because of how good the NL West has been, already seven games out of the second wild card. He may not be available because of what he means to that franchise and their desire to re-sign him at the end of the year, but he’d be one of the few true multiple-win upgrades at a position of need.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2021 6:49:23 GMT -5
OTOH, looking is free. Going to see Hamels didn't necessarily indicate they're otherwise going to be actively looking for pitchers on the trade market.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2021 6:53:06 GMT -5
That was my thought, as well. Not sure the other guys have much value, but Lugo seemed well thought of going into his draft. Maybe he'd be a piece somebody would consider a "get" in a trade. Not that you'd assume Mayer is a lock, but he's as close to consensus 1/1 as you can be without actually being it (rankings-wise), so an organization would be forgiven for clearing his path through the system and using those who would have played his position to add to the major league team. Especially considering you have an all star at that position at the major league level for the foreseeable future. Lugo and Flores are struggling in the low minors. Their value is low. Meanwhile Cannon is a 2b and Howlett is a 3b. They may be trade bait at some point like a 3rd or 4th player in a trade but what does Mayer, a SS have to do with them? Nothing I would think. Agreed that Flores (who's also a 2B now) has no value, but I know scouts who've liked Lugo this year. Also agreed that Howlett doesn't factor in. Cannon I can't see having much value at this point either. But yeah, the Lugo situation will be interesting. I don't think that means a trade is in the offing this deadline though.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 14, 2021 6:55:32 GMT -5
I wonder if Freddie Freeman might be available if the Braves fall out of the race. He’s a free agent next year and Atlanta is hanging around .500 and, because of how good the NL West has been, already seven games out of the second wild card. He may not be available because of what he means to that franchise and their desire to re-sign him at the end of the year, but he’d be one of the few true multiple-win upgrades at a position of need. You more or less would need to blow up the minors to get Atlanta interested. Maybe you can get away with keeping one of the top 3 prospects you have but Casas and Downs would need to be involved for sure. That being said if he's coming with an extension its a no brainer. Prospects are great and having 6 years of those two would be awesome. BUT Freeman matches with the timeline of Xander and some of the other guys a little more. I can't see Atlanta being interested in Verdugo nor can I see the Sox entertaining moving him. He's close to untradeable at this point. Duran probably doesn't interest Atlanta too much either. OF is a strength of their ML System.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 14, 2021 10:20:00 GMT -5
I had him in mind but he's a RH batter and I figure that Chaim is looking for a LH hitting 1b. I was under the thought that he's not looking to block or deal away Dalbec at this moment and that Dalbec is somebody they'd give another year to improve, but then again I wouldn't be shocked if they did trade Dalbec away at some point. I just don't think it's this July. I'll see if Bloom proves me wrong on this. The truth of the matter is that I'm not at all sold on Dalbec. He's not hitting enough HRs to offset the strikeouts and worse, with his BA as low as it is, he's not taking walks, so his OBP is terrible. Don't know if it gets better. I'd think the Sox would get him a LH hitting complement and then try again with him next season, but I could be mistaken with that impression. Unlike Dalbec, Cooper can hit RHP, so he eliminates the need for a platoon. To me, the bigger problem with Dalbec not walking enough is that it invites pitchers to throw him chase pitches and he too often rewards them for it. If he had a better eye at the plate and took some walks, he would see fewer of those pitches and make the pitcher come into the zone more often, which would allow his power to play up that much more. I also agree with the idea that if you're bringing in Cooper, you may as well ship Dalbec out. Maybe MIA likes Dalbec's upside and three extra years of control (compared to Cooper) enough to take Bobby back as part of the deal.
You're right about Cooper as an every day solution at 1b until Casas is ready. I do think that's exactly the type of move that Bloom talks about wanting to make. At that point Dalbec becomes very expendable. I would think that Dalbec plus another prospect (somebody that is a 2nd tier prospect from an area of depth) would probably go to the Marlins in a potential deal like that. That would check off Bloom's check box for somebody not too expensive who can help now and later. I think that would be his preference to renting Anthony Rizzo. And as I said previously if they like what they see from Hamels that could make Perez expendable to save them some money.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 10:39:57 GMT -5
Let's talk "you gotta give up something good to get something good" types of trades. First, who's out there that is worth giving up something good? Scherzer? Kimbrel? (I don't think he actually blew a save in the 2018 playoffs, did he? He's also dealing right now...) Nelly Cruz? (where to put him? How about Julio to LF, Doogie to CF and Enrique to 2B?) Starling Marte? Second, who are you willing to give up out of the SP Top 10? For me it's Downs (just can't get past the name) and Groome (clock ticking). Thoughts? Some of this has been discussed in the previous 6 pages. Everyone wants to get "the big guy" but i don't see i happening this year. At least not for a half season rental. I can only imagine Bloom parting with bigger prospects for a long term upgrade. Scherzer: might become available again, the nats probably want him to finish his career as a nat and IF he becomes available it's going to be a bidding war. As much as is like mad max...i cant see Bloom paying an inflated price. Kimbrel: stat-wire, sure, but kimbrel and boston don't mix well anymore..on a personal level Cruz: he is a DH at this point...and we have the second best DH in the mlb...after ohtani Outfield: verdugo/kiké/renfroe just are too good...we can't even find room for our MLB-ready #2 prospect in the outfield So...i don't see it The idea of bringing in an OF is that you move Enrique to 2B and Marwin to the bench (or waivers).
I'm not quite as sanguine about Duran being "MLB-ready" -- if he was, he'd be on the team already. A lot of service-time guys are kept down on the farm "to work on their defense" but with Duran that seems to be real (and we're well past his super-2 date). I'll believe he's ready when I see the announcement.
I think my favorite of all of these ideas is Cruz. Yes, you sacrifice OF defense (which can be reinstated in late innings) but the lineup would be insane. You're basically swapping out Marwin/Arroyo's bat for Cruz's (and yes, Marwin's/Arroyo's 2B glove for Julio's LF).
I seriously doubt any sort of personal issue would keep Kimbrel from Boston. I have no idea what that even means. That he can tell the Cubs not to trade him there? That his former manager, who won a ring with him would turn against him? What I recall is that his kid was seriously sick and he was very happy with how Boston hospitals treated her. Pretty sure fans' memories of his shaky 2018 playoff run have zero bearing on anything. Swapping out Brice/Andriese/Rios for Kimbrel would be huge. Two closers means there's no game where at least one isn't fresh.
All that said, the willingness both the manager and CBO have demonstrated to stay the course (which has paid off so far) leads me to believe that there won't be any such fireworks at the deadline. Cooper replacing Dalbec would be nice. Hell, even Mitchie Two Bags would make me happy.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 14, 2021 12:54:30 GMT -5
Nelson Cruz has not played the outfield since 2018.
Kikè is top 5-7 defensive center fielder and has 750OPS.
You gave your closer a 2+ year contract 2 seconds ago. Going on the market to get anotherone seems like a weird move. I doubt Kimbrel will be happy as Barnes setup man (or the other way around).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 13:11:13 GMT -5
Nelson Cruz has not played the outfield since 2018. Kikè is top 5-7 defensive center fielder and has 750OPS. You gave your closer a 2+ year contract 2 seconds ago. Going on the market to get anotherone seems like a weird move. I doubt Kimbrel will be happy as Barnes setup man (or the other way around). Hernandez 2B Devers 3B Martinez LF Cruz DH Bogaerts SS Verdugo CF Renfroe RF Vazquez C Dalbec/Franchy? 1B
That's a frightening line up.
Also, signing Barnes actually paves the way for bringing in Kimbrel, since Barnes just got paid and knows that Kimbrel, his former teammate who he quite likely reveres, is a free agent and won't be threatening Barnes's ability to get his next contract. Makes it quite clear to everyone that Kimbrel would only be around for this stretch run. I wouldn't be surprised if this was intentional on the part of Chaim & Co., as the timing is kind of unusual.
Anyway, I would be pleasantly surprised with either but not expecting either.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 14, 2021 13:14:43 GMT -5
Why do you think Bloom would prefer Cooper to renting Rizzo? If they think they need another lefthanded hitter, wouldn't Rizzo be a better fit on the field for this team? Of course, I have no idea whether the Cubs would even consider moving Rizzo and I do not know whether the dollars would work for the Red Sox, but I feel Rizzo would be a better fit for this team. And it would be neat to see him in a Red Sox uniform after following him all those years when he was in the Sox minor league system. Moreover, I would think the front office would want to send a signal to the players that the front office has confidence enough in them to win this year to adding a big name like Rizzo to help them. Since the Red Sox are seemingly going to risk losing a few players to the next rule 5 draft, why not see if the Cubs would take a couple of them for a rental of Rizzo? Not their best prospects, buttes they are going to have trouble keeping out of the draft Not saying it will happen, but a short term rental of Rizzo makes sense to me. The rotation has Houck and Sale coming. The bullpen has, I think, Brasier coming. Cordero and Duran could help in the outfield. Unless your sold on Cordero at firstbase that seems to be a spot where they could look to add a player. Unlike Dalbec, Cooper can hit RHP, so he eliminates the need for a platoon. To me, the bigger problem with Dalbec not walking enough is that it invites pitchers to throw him chase pitches and he too often rewards them for it. If he had a better eye at the plate and took some walks, he would see fewer of those pitches and make the pitcher come into the zone more often, which would allow his power to play up that much more. I also agree with the idea that if you're bringing in Cooper, you may as well ship Dalbec out. Maybe MIA likes Dalbec's upside and three extra years of control (compared to Cooper) enough to take Bobby back as part of the deal.
You're right about Cooper as an every day solution at 1b until Casas is ready. I do think that's exactly the type of move that Bloom talks about wanting to make. At that point Dalbec becomes very expendable. I would think that Dalbec plus another prospect (somebody that is a 2nd tier prospect from an area of depth) would probably go to the Marlins in a potential deal like that. That would check off Bloom's check box for somebody not too expensive who can help now and later. I think that would be his preference to renting Anthony Rizzo. And as I said previously if they like what they see from Hamels that could make Perez expendable to save them some money.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2021 13:24:44 GMT -5
Two arguments against Rizzo:
1) He's been kind of mediocre since the start of 2020 (.236/.342/.423, though his xwOBA has been a bit higher than his wOBA). 2) He's declined to get a covid vaccine, and with cases on the rise again you'd want to factor in the possibility of his getting covid.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 13:25:31 GMT -5
Why do you think Bloom would prefer Cooper to renting Rizzo? If they think they need another lefthanded hitter, wouldn't Rizzo be a better fit on the field for this team? Of course, I have no idea whether the Cubs would even consider moving Rizzo and I do not know whether the dollars would work for the Red Sox, but I feel Rizzo would be a better fit for this team. And it would be neat to see him in a Red Sox uniform after following him all those years when he was in the Sox minor league system. Moreover, I would think the front office would want to send a signal to the players that the front office has confidence enough in them to win this year to adding a big name like Rizzo to help them. Since the Red Sox are seemingly going to risk losing a few players to the next rule 5 draft, why not see if the Cubs would take a couple of them for a rental of Rizzo? Not their best prospects, buttes they are going to have trouble keeping out of the draft Not saying it will happen, but a short term rental of Rizzo makes sense to me. The rotation has Houck and Sale coming. The bullpen has, I think, Brasier coming. Cordero and Duran could help in the outfield. Unless your sold on Cordero at firstbase that seems to be a spot where they could look to add a player. You're right about Cooper as an every day solution at 1b until Casas is ready. I do think that's exactly the type of move that Bloom talks about wanting to make. At that point Dalbec becomes very expendable. I would think that Dalbec plus another prospect (somebody that is a 2nd tier prospect from an area of depth) would probably go to the Marlins in a potential deal like that. That would check off Bloom's check box for somebody not too expensive who can help now and later. I think that would be his preference to renting Anthony Rizzo. And as I said previously if they like what they see from Hamels that could make Perez expendable to save them some money. Cooper with a few years of control/arb seems more likely to me for this FO than a Rizzo rental. Also, Rizzo is not the .900 OPS guy he used to be (weirdly, he is against LHP this year and hasn't been great vs. RHP).
Casas is coming to take Dalbec's job but is still probably late 2022/early 2023 ETA. Ideally you include Dalbec in a Cooper deal and the windows all line up.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 14, 2021 13:38:06 GMT -5
Why do you think Bloom would prefer Cooper to renting Rizzo? If they think they need another lefthanded hitter, wouldn't Rizzo be a better fit on the field for this team? Of course, I have no idea whether the Cubs would even consider moving Rizzo and I do not know whether the dollars would work for the Red Sox, but I feel Rizzo would be a better fit for this team. And it would be neat to see him in a Red Sox uniform after following him all those years when he was in the Sox minor league system. Moreover, I would think the front office would want to send a signal to the players that the front office has confidence enough in them to win this year to adding a big name like Rizzo to help them. Since the Red Sox are seemingly going to risk losing a few players to the next rule 5 draft, why not see if the Cubs would take a couple of them for a rental of Rizzo? Not their best prospects, buttes they are going to have trouble keeping out of the draft Not saying it will happen, but a short term rental of Rizzo makes sense to me. The rotation has Houck and Sale coming. The bullpen has, I think, Brasier coming. Cordero and Duran could help in the outfield. Unless your sold on Cordero at firstbase that seems to be a spot where they could look to add a player. You're right about Cooper as an every day solution at 1b until Casas is ready. I do think that's exactly the type of move that Bloom talks about wanting to make. At that point Dalbec becomes very expendable. I would think that Dalbec plus another prospect (somebody that is a 2nd tier prospect from an area of depth) would probably go to the Marlins in a potential deal like that. That would check off Bloom's check box for somebody not too expensive who can help now and later. I think that would be his preference to renting Anthony Rizzo. And as I said previously if they like what they see from Hamels that could make Perez expendable to save them some money. I would be cool with a Chavis plus another so so prospect to rent Rizzo, but I was listening to what Bloom specifically said which is if he makes a move he's looking to help them now and later as he always has an eye on the future and Cooper would fit that description. He's also a lesser name than Rizzo which is kind of his MO. I don't think Bloom would trade Dalbec to rent Rizzo but I think he just might deal Dalbec for Cooper. What I'm unclear on is if Bloom would go over the luxury tax limit, which would impact obtaining Rizzo.
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Post by soxaddict on Jul 14, 2021 14:56:49 GMT -5
I wonder if Freddie Freeman might be available if the Braves fall out of the race. He’s a free agent next year and Atlanta is hanging around .500 and, because of how good the NL West has been, already seven games out of the second wild card. He may not be available because of what he means to that franchise and their desire to re-sign him at the end of the year, but he’d be one of the few true multiple-win upgrades at a position of need. I’d be completely on board with Freddie, but I think he means too much to Atlanta for them to deal him. IMO, the only way they might is if he’s wants to go to a contender. Plus, they are sunk without Acuna. I fully expect him to sign a team friendly deal to stay in Atlanta til he’s done. Can you imagine this lineup with Freeman in it? Easily, the best in baseball. If they could also get Morton to replace Richards, and Matzek to replace Andriese, this team would be set, IMO.
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Post by soxaddict on Jul 14, 2021 15:18:56 GMT -5
A couple of trade targets I’ve been pondering is Tucker Barnhart and Amir Garrett. Barnhart would give the Sox a good LH bat behind the plate and also has a little experience at 1B. Vazquez could also play some 1B. That would allow them to send Dalbec down or deal him. Garrett would give them another good Lefty option out of the bullpen. I don’t think either of the two would be too expensive.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 15:35:26 GMT -5
A couple of trade targets I’ve been pondering is Tucker Barnhart and Amir Garrett. Barnhart would give the Sox a good LH bat behind the plate and also has a little experience at 1B. Vazquez could also play some 1B. That would allow them to send Dalbec down or deal him. Garrett would give them another good Lefty option out of the bullpen. I don’t think either of the two would be too expensive. Sadly, the Reds are in second place in the NLC at the break, 4 GB, 3 in the loss column, having just taken 3 of 4 at first-place MIL. Either they tank the next couple weeks (after being one of the hottest teams before the break) or those guys won't be on the market. As it happens, they come out of the break hosting MIL, so we'll may find out one way or the other fairly soon.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 20:30:29 GMT -5
I guess Duran's ready...
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Post by larrycook on Jul 14, 2021 21:01:25 GMT -5
I would like us to acquire 2 under the radar relievers that are an upgrade over Brice and andriese.
Somewhere between arizona, Colorado, Miami, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Washington there are two relievers we can trade for, that the baseball analytics department calculates as fits.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 14, 2021 21:15:17 GMT -5
Two arguments against Rizzo:
1) He's been kind of mediocre since the start of 2020 (.236/.342/.423, though his xwOBA has been a bit higher than his wOBA). 2) He's declined to get a covid vaccine, and with cases on the rise again you'd want to factor in the possibility of his getting covid. Who cares about C19. It is a non factor in 99/100 healthy people.
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