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Tanner Houck - bulk reliever?
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Post by ep51 on Jul 31, 2021 21:35:19 GMT -5
You could argue that Houck is the 3rd best starter after Sale and Nate. They need him right now to start 5.50 ERA from the starters since the All-Star break. Both Tanner and Garrett will be starters next year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 31, 2021 21:37:33 GMT -5
You could argue that Houck is the 3rd best starter after Sale and Nate. They need him right now to start 5.50 ERA from the starters since the All-Star break. Both Tanner and Garrett will be starters next year. Yup and no choice at this point. He has to start.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2021 9:48:19 GMT -5
I was thinking more about this and have come to this conclusion.
For the regular season, he has to start. Yeah, no kidding. They can't keep running Richards and Perez out every 5th day, so Sale and Houck must replace them. The only way it could be different is if Connor Seabold started pitching well in AAA and started forcing the issue which hasn't happened yet and might not this season.
The problem is that Houck isn't going to go deep into starts and at this point is probably best as a 6 to 12 out guy. And it's not like they added good middle relief/long relief to help out. Robles and Davis are not going to come in and shut the opposition down too often for 6 outs.
But thinking down the road further, I was considering what a 26 man playoff roster looks like if everybody was healthy (I know, I know...)
I think for the post-season I would probably have Houck as a reliever IF Nick Pivetta can get his act together enough to be a presentable 4th game starter (assuming the Sox finish 1st or assuming they survive the Wild Card game, which I hope it doesn't come down to).
So the starters would be:
Sale (man, they're asking a lot of him) Eovaldi E-Rod (I'm praying he is 2021 version of 2004 Derek Lowe, a mess during the regular season who got his act together when it mattered) Pivetta (leap of faith he isn't as bad as Perez and Richards)
The bullpen would be: Barnes Ottavino (starting to worry about him. Is he gassed? Or is it a sticky stuff problem? Are the gods angry for him taunting Ohtani?) Taylor Whitlock (1a of the 6 to 9 out bullpen brigade) Houck (1b of the 6 to 9 out bullpen brigade) Sawamura D. Hernandez Brasier
I'm worried about Brasier's inclusion, but they really need him healthy, effective, and in working in 7th/8th high leverage situations, taking the heat off of Ottavino, and the guy hasn't even thrown a pitch in quite awhile. If not him, then Phillips Valdez is the guy I would trust the most out of Richards, Perez, Rios, Robles, Davis.
So that's the 12 guys I'd go for. The idea is that you pray that E-Rod and Pivetta can give you 5 reasonable innings and then be able to go to Houck for 6 outs maybe two to 3 times in a series and that he can alternate with Whitlock the other days, sort of as piggyback starters. When you can't use them, then yeah, Sawamura and Darwinzon perhaps. Hopefully Brasier gives them a late inning option, but I don't feel too confident about that.
The nine regulars would be: DH: Martinez C: Vazquez 1B: Schwarber (really praying he can be a viable 1b) 2B: Hernandez (against righties anyways, he'd play CF against lefties and would move their for late inning defense) SS: Bogaerts 3B: Devers LF: Verdugo CF: Duran (still hoping he figures it out, but if he doesn't then Kiké goes to CF and Arroyo becomes the 2b). RF: Renfroe
The five bench guys would be: C: Plawecki 1B-3B: Dalbec (Does he platoon with Schwarber at 1b?) 2B-3B: Arroyo (he would platoon with Duran or simply replace him if Duran can't even hit righties). They need this guy back healthy. UT: Gonzalez (Marwin is probably the Sox best late inning 1b solution, plus he is a switch hitter who can play multiple positions) UT: Santana (Danny is similar to Marwin instead I'd probably prefer his bat but that's not saying much).
You could make the argument that Franchy should get a spot over Santana. Flip a coin, really.
The bench would consist of versatility and guys who can PH with power from either side of the plate, but let's face it, you really wouldn't want to pinch-hit them. But they can help out defensively and Santana has some speed. Or course if Duran doesn't hit, Arroyo is the regular 2b and Kiké Hernandez is the regular CF and Duran is the LH PH/pinch runner off the bench. So even if he doesn't hit, Duran would have a spot on the post-season roster. I just hope he hits enough to be a platoon regular if not more.
If this should be moved to another forum please do, but I was thinking of this as I was trying to figure out how Tanner Houck is best utilized for different situations, a tight pennant race with two months to go and the post-season sprint.
Makes me realize that Nick Pivetta is a key man in all this. They can't keep going on with four guys who are terrible more times than not. At some point E-Rod has to pitch toward his peripherals and Pivetta has to be more Jekyll than Hyde. He has it in him. That all impacts Houck because if they can't figure it out Houck would be forced to start in a post-season series as well which would be a big blow to the bullpen.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 2, 2021 6:53:36 GMT -5
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 2, 2021 8:04:46 GMT -5
I know I am a broken record but I am pretty sure these numbers would be reflected to a certain degree with 90% of the pitchers in the majors. Time and time again I see guys get lit up to one degree or another as managers try to get 1 more inning out of them. Maybe they should expand the rosters again....
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Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2021 12:59:43 GMT -5
I know I am a broken record but I am pretty sure these numbers would be reflected to a certain degree with 90% of the pitchers in the majors. Time and time again I see guys get lit up to one degree or another as managers try to get 1 more inning out of them. Maybe they should expand the rosters again.... Yes, but "to a certain degree" is doing a lot of work here.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 2, 2021 13:42:39 GMT -5
I know I am a broken record but I am pretty sure these numbers would be reflected to a certain degree with 90% of the pitchers in the majors. Time and time again I see guys get lit up to one degree or another as managers try to get 1 more inning out of them. Maybe they should expand the rosters again.... Yes, but "to a certain degree" is doing a lot of work here. As is "one degree or another" but their is a lot of truth to it also. Remember I said pitchers not starters so I am talking all pitchers which in this context might be wrong but is what I meant when I said pitchers. In 2020 the average starter went 4 2/3 innings, in 2015 it was 5.8. And upon analysis every pitcher out there does worse the 2nd and 3rd time thru so those guys that average less than 5 are getting lit up in the 5th, and if they go longer they are getting lit up in the 6th. All the evidence is out there in the stats. I mean it went down by a whole inning in 6 years. I think that would be considered a trend, LOL I'm just on my soapbox about how we fans perceive things and our expectations need to change with the times. 5 inning is the new 7.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 2, 2021 16:51:14 GMT -5
I guess a downside of analytics is that it increases the challenge at managing the PR game. In the past they would have rolled Houck out for 5 or 6 innings, he'd get hit around in the later innings, pick up a "he can't get out of the 5th/6th" tag, and people would be frustrated with him.
Now they know exactly what to do to maximize his value this year, pull him before the damage is done, but his stats now scream that he's too good to only pitch 3 innings per game, which then gets the PR chatter going around they don't know what they are doing. It's like a virtuous-to-vicious cycle all in one.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 2, 2021 17:32:07 GMT -5
I guess a downside of analytics is that it increases the challenge at managing the PR game. In the past they would have rolled Houck out for 5 or 6 innings, he'd get hit around in the later innings, pick up a "he can't get out of the 5th/6th" tag, and people would be frustrated with him. Now they know exactly what to do to maximize his value this year, pull him before the damage is done, but his stats now scream that he's too good to only pitch 3 innings per game, which then gets the PR chatter going around they don't know what they are doing. It's like a virtuous-to-vicious cycle all in one. "Pull him before the damage is done" Says it all, so how do you build and manage the present day and future pitching staff? First I would ask why are so many guys going only 1? Their should only be a couple guys who go one and everyone else should be able to go 2 or 3 and if they can't you find guys that can. Shouldn't they be able to go thru the lineup once? And if not why? Isn't this what the Rays are and have been doing for a while? That is their secret.
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Post by caliexile on Aug 2, 2021 17:50:42 GMT -5
I can see Sale,Eovaldi,Houck,Whitlock and Pivetta next year. I want no more of Rodriguez. They should all give 5 innings or more.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 2, 2021 18:20:20 GMT -5
I can see Sale,Eovaldi,Houck,Whitlock and Pivetta next year. I want no more of Rodriguez. They should all give 5 innings or more. Based on advanced statistics ERod is better than all but Sale and maybe Eovoldi sometimes.
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 4, 2021 16:47:05 GMT -5
I can see Sale,Eovaldi,Houck,Whitlock and Pivetta next year. I want no more of Rodriguez. They should all give 5 innings or more. Based on advanced statistics ERod is better than all but Sale and maybe Eovoldi sometimes. Time for a new statistic
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 4, 2021 17:08:17 GMT -5
Based on advanced statistics ERod is better than all but Sale and maybe Eovoldi sometimes. Time for a new statistic Or time for a new pair of glasses?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 4, 2021 17:59:59 GMT -5
I don't know why we're using 2021 instead of career here.
Facing hitters the first time, starter or reliever:
.143 / .200 / .200, 76 PA, first time. .241 / .339 / .370, 62 PA, the second time
But there's obviously a lot of variance there, because he had 14 PA the 3rd time last year and was .167 / .286 / .167. Against good lineups.
Cora has certainly seen the film of his starts last year. There will be days he doesn't have the command to get through the order twice and times he'll be able to get into the third time. It'll be up to Cora, Bush, and 'Tek to decide which day is which.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 5, 2021 3:12:37 GMT -5
I know this is unheard of but why not a
Sale Eovaldi Erod Pivetta Houck/Whitlock
Houck can pitch anywhere between 3-5 innings and Whitlock can come in do the same. I actually think these 2 would be so valuable at this and it can help stretch out Whitlock in the process. That being said it would eliminate him coming into any other games.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2021 10:37:42 GMT -5
I've gone back and forth on Tanner Houck.
My preference would be for him to occupy the same role as Garrett Whitlock has. Whitlock is awesome and the only drawback is that he's not available more than twice per week. I would love it if they could have him do his thing twice as often. If Houck was available to do that, then that would make that wish true. Imagine you can get five respectable innings from your starter and you have Whitlock one day available for two innings and Houck available the next day for two innings, it would be so valuable.
But the rotation has been so bad, that watching Perez and Richards go every 5th day I get the feeling of hopelessness. I know that E-Rod can be aggravating but the talent is there to pitch like he did last night. And Pivetta shows enough Jekyl to his Hyde that you know he's capable of going out there and flirting with a no-hitter every now and then.
So Sale comes back, Eovaldi is solid, and I can stomach E-Rod and Pivetta, even if they leave me frustrated at times, but Richards and Perez are what they are, and it's not good. So I reluctantly said they have to put in Houck as the 5th starter and just hope that the Robles/Valdez types can piece the 6th innings well enough, etc.
But seeing how Connor Seabold has made a giant leap forward, would by the end of the month, he keeps pitching somewhere near as well as he was last night, would he be a better option to be the 5th starter over Houck?
Houck is great for 3 to 4 innings. I think he can keep improving enough to become a more consistent 5 - 6 inning starter, but maybe he's not there yet and would be better served going 2 - 3 innings at a clip?
Would Seabold be a better option for the #5 spot over Houck? Or are they better off taking four strong innings from Houck and using Seabold as the 2 - 3 inning middle reliever?
I'm interested in the alternative of the Sox having Sale and either Houck/Seabold in the rotation to replace Perez and Richards (can't stand watching either of them pitch) and look forward to either Houck or Seabold giving the Sox an effective alternate to Garrett Whitlock in the pen. And I can't believe how important Ryan Brasier becomes to the back end of the pen if he's healthy and effective. A fresh rested arm for the late innings would be welcome.
What's the consensus here as far as if Houck should start and Seabold should be the Whitlock role reliever or the other way around?
My vote is for Seabold for the #5 sport and Houck out of the bullpen.
How do others here see it?
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 5, 2021 10:50:07 GMT -5
another consideration is his innings pitched. Houck pitched 17 innings last year and is currently at 43 innings combined AAA & MLB. This is not unique to Houck as most everyone across baseball will have a similar trend. Given his effectiveness the first time thru the order it might makes sense for him to assume a Whitlock role so that he can impact more games without running up his innings.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2021 11:02:57 GMT -5
another consideration is his innings pitched. Houck pitched 17 innings last year and is currently at 43 innings combined AAA & MLB. This is not unique to Houck as most everyone across baseball will have a similar trend. Given his effectiveness the first time thru the order it might makes sense for him to assume a Whitlock role so that he can impact more games without running up his innings. So if Seabold was dealing at Worcester, you'd be comfortable giving him a crack at the #5 spot in the Boston rotation?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 5, 2021 11:32:12 GMT -5
I've gone back and forth on Tanner Houck. My preference would be for him to occupy the same role as Garrett Whitlock has. Whitlock is awesome and the only drawback is that he's not available more than twice per week. I would love it if they could have him do his thing twice as often. If Houck was available to do that, then that would make that wish true. Imagine you can get five respectable innings from your starter and you have Whitlock one day available for two innings and Houck available the next day for two innings, it would be so valuable. But the rotation has been so bad, that watching Perez and Richards go every 5th day I get the feeling of hopelessness. I know that E-Rod can be aggravating but the talent is there to pitch like he did last night. And Pivetta shows enough Jekyl to his Hyde that you know he's capable of going out there and flirting with a no-hitter every now and then. So Sale comes back, Eovaldi is solid, and I can stomach E-Rod and Pivetta, even if they leave me frustrated at times, but Richards and Perez are what they are, and it's not good. So I reluctantly said they have to put in Houck as the 5th starter and just hope that the Robles/Valdez types can piece the 6th innings well enough, etc. But seeing how Connor Seabold has made a giant leap forward, would by the end of the month, he keeps pitching somewhere near as well as he was last night, would he be a better option to be the 5th starter over Houck? Houck is great for 3 to 4 innings. I think he can keep improving enough to become a more consistent 5 - 6 inning starter, but maybe he's not there yet and would be better served going 2 - 3 innings at a clip? Would Seabold be a better option for the #5 spot over Houck? Or are they better off taking four strong innings from Houck and using Seabold as the 2 - 3 inning middle reliever? I'm interested in the alternative of the Sox having Sale and either Houck/Seabold in the rotation to replace Perez and Richards (can't stand watching either of them pitch) and look forward to either Houck or Seabold giving the Sox an effective alternate to Garrett Whitlock in the pen. And I can't believe how important Ryan Brasier becomes to the back end of the pen if he's healthy and effective. A fresh rested arm for the late innings would be welcome. What's the consensus here as far as if Houck should start and Seabold should be the Whitlock role reliever or the other way around? My vote is for Seabold for the #5 sport and Houck out of the bullpen. How do others here see it? I used to think Houck was a reliever…. but I’m sold that he can be an above average guy for 5-6 innings right now. He’s already doing it! Seabold… I don’t see any comparison at the moment. He could end up being really good, but he has never thrown a major league pitch and has 20 IP this season. Let him get healthy and develop this year and not push him into a playoff role. Maybe next year either out of camp or mid-year he enters the rotation.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2021 9:53:43 GMT -5
So with Houck in the rotation, are they going with the de facto Whitlock piggyback that some people proposed? They still seem reluctant to let Houck pitch more than 4 innings.
It makes me a little nervous that it'll stress the bullpen, with Houck a 4 IP starter and Sale coming off of Tommy John. It does not make me as nervous as Richards starting however!
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2021 14:38:53 GMT -5
So with Houck in the rotation, are they going with the de facto Whitlock piggyback that some people proposed? They still seem reluctant to let Houck pitch more than 4 innings.
It makes me a little nervous that it'll stress the bullpen, with Houck a 4 IP starter and Sale coming off of Tommy John. It does not make me as nervous as Richards starting however!
It doesn't seem to be as much of an issue with 26 man rosters. We can handle it when we actually have a decent long reliever. Haven't had one of those in decades it seems.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 8, 2021 14:41:31 GMT -5
So with Houck in the rotation, are they going with the de facto Whitlock piggyback that some people proposed? They still seem reluctant to let Houck pitch more than 4 innings.
It makes me a little nervous that it'll stress the bullpen, with Houck a 4 IP starter and Sale coming off of Tommy John. It does not make me as nervous as Richards starting however!
It doesn't seem to be as much of an issue with 26 man rosters. We can handle it when we actually have a decent long reliever. Haven't had one of those in decades it seems. Let’s hope going forward it’s 5 innings. Either way it’s more than Perez amd Richards have been giving.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 6:21:23 GMT -5
It doesn't seem to be as much of an issue with 26 man rosters. We can handle it when we actually have a decent long reliever. Haven't had one of those in decades it seems. Let’s hope going forward it’s 5 innings. Either way it’s more than Perez amd Richards have been giving. Don't forget that adding Houck & Sale to the rotation gives us 2 long relievers, Perez and Richards.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 7:13:17 GMT -5
BTW, I totally disagree with the logic in several posts here. He's not a 4 inning pitcher. People are evaluating based on a pitcher who is rebuilding arm strength after more than a month on the IL.
Doesn't it make more sense to look at his track record ? Little or no decline in "stuff" as the pitch counts piled up and no appreciable difference between first, second and third time through the order.
Maybe there's a reason he was a first rounder.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2021 9:28:52 GMT -5
BTW, I totally disagree with the logic in several posts here. He's not a 4 inning pitcher. People are evaluating based on a pitcher who is rebuilding arm strength after more than a month on the IL. Doesn't it make more sense to look at his track record ? Little or no decline in "stuff" as the pitch counts piled up and no appreciable difference between first, second and third time through the order. Maybe there's a reason he was a first rounder. Do you really still think he's building up arm strength though? He was on the IL for 44 days and has been off of it for 53. He hit 70 pitches in his first start back and they let him throw 87 in his start against the Yankees. I guess it's possible, but he threw fewer pitches in his last two starts than that Yankee one and he was on extra rest on Saturday - he didn't get pulled because he was at pitch limits.
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