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Red Sox Select Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2021 12:15:10 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline write up:
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2021 12:19:12 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2021 13:00:45 GMT -5
Sounds like he likes to crush his enemies, hear the lamentations of their women, etc.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 12, 2021 13:01:45 GMT -5
George Springer?
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 12, 2021 13:10:10 GMT -5
Copied over from the draft thread on why I'm optimistic on Fabian...
Thing that gives me most hope about Jud is 1) age and 2) ability to make adjustments, and quickly. We know the Red Sox value this. First 26 games (2/19 to 4/5), 37.1% K in 124 PA. Final 33 games (4/6 to 6/5), 22.6% K in 146 PA
That's a fast and extremely significant turnaround. A guy that cuts his K-rate almost in half midseason on a whim swing change bodes well for future growth IMO.
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sportshubby
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yup that is my twitter handle
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Post by sportshubby on Jul 12, 2021 13:31:39 GMT -5
At least if his K rate stays up, he has a great nickname - JFK. And any future prospects we compare to him would of course be JFK Jr. Ok going to stop making this joke now. Hoping to never use that nickname. I am actually very excited for this pick.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 12, 2021 14:06:05 GMT -5
Yeah I saw that comparison thrown around a few times so it makes sense to me. Age 20 Springer K% 22.01 Fabian K% 29.36 Fabian of course plays in much tougher conference.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2021 14:12:39 GMT -5
Yeah I saw that comparison thrown around a few times so it makes sense to me. Age 20 Springer K% 22.01 Fabian K% 29.36 Fabian of course plays in much tougher conference. Springer was 20 before the launch angle craze began as well. Hard to compare really.
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Post by unitspin on Jul 12, 2021 14:25:28 GMT -5
If someone told me yesterday we would land mayer and fabian I would have pissed myself laughing. This guy bloom makes the impossible....possible.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 12, 2021 15:40:43 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Jul 12, 2021 16:33:25 GMT -5
Copied over from the draft thread on why I'm optimistic on Fabian... Thing that gives me most hope about Jud is 1) age and 2) ability to make adjustments, and quickly. We know the Red Sox value this. First 26 games (2/19 to 4/5), 37.1% K in 124 PA. Final 33 games (4/6 to 6/5), 22.6% K in 146 PA That's a fast and extremely significant turnaround. A guy that cuts his K-rate almost in half midseason on a whim swing change bodes well for future growth IMO. As well he has never had an issue with keeping his average up and ks down in the past. If he batted .280 he's going in the top ten. When all is said and done he might be the best second rd pick for the red sox in a very long time.
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 13, 2021 7:17:44 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I checked with some UF fans, and they seemed to believe that a big part of Fabian's struggles early this year was that he was trying to hit each pitch 500 feet in order to impress the scouts.
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Post by Canseco on Jul 13, 2021 7:50:53 GMT -5
Up the middle defense? Sign me up.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 13, 2021 8:26:45 GMT -5
Up the middle defense? Sign me up. A ceiling of JBJ is not a bad thing. That guy was valuable and fun to watch. Best I can tell he had 13th most bWar of 2011 draft. Don't want to limit Fabian but that's a solid best case outcome.
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Post by Canseco on Jul 13, 2021 8:51:25 GMT -5
Up the middle defense? Sign me up. A ceiling of JBJ is not a bad thing. That guy was valuable and fun to watch. Best I can tell he had 13th most bWar of 2011 draft. Don't want to limit Fabian but that's a solid best case outcome. That’s what I mean. In an era of feast or famine at the dish, it’s refreshing to have a guy or two who provides plus outfield defense. It’s easy to overlook the value of such a player over the course of a long season. I still miss JBJ.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 9:09:30 GMT -5
I'm thinking Hunter Renfroe. Athletic fielder, power, a lot of swing and miss. I doubt he has the same hose, tho.
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Jul 13, 2021 16:47:06 GMT -5
I get it. I really do. We ALL want to think the Red Sox just drafted the next Chipper Jones and George Springer this week. But we all know the game too well to ACTUALLY believe that. I wonder what we were all saying when they drafted Benintendi? Or Michael Chavis in the first round? Who were the comps for Reymond Fuentes and Kolbrin Vitek? The draft is the ultimate crapshoot. Nope. I’m telling right now Fabian is going to struggle against major league pitching. Anyone who’s telling you he is George Springer is lying to you. There has never been a long time major league regular with his strikeout rate and low batting average out of the college ranks. Pulling this over from the Marcelo Mayer thread. Is there a way to search MLB players by college stats? Would be interested to see what his MLB comps would be.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2021 3:09:42 GMT -5
Missing from the Fabian picture are the ramifications of his entering college for the second semester of the 2018-2019 college year. He was a junior this year in the sense that he was in his junior year, but he's only half done with it academically. And that makes him a sophomore for draft purposes. That's why he had extra leverage and fell to 40.
This pre-combine story makes it clear. There's also a very good 6 min interview with him and MLB.com identifies him as a sophomore in its graphic.
So a year from now he'll have ordinary junior leverage. If he chooses not to sign again, he can, the next fall, take one less course than he needs to graduate, then take the final course in the spring while playing his senior year of ball. Now, that would leave him with no leverage at that point, just like any senior, but the point is that he can go back to school next year, have a bounce-back year, and be a top 10 pick.
Fabian was the consensus #23 prospect, which translates to $3M slot value. He was looking at twice as much before he had the bad (half-)season. To fall to us he had to be asking at least $4M. I'd like to think we can land him for less than that, simply because this is such a desirable situation.
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Post by unitspin on Jul 14, 2021 4:39:12 GMT -5
I dont get the George Springer comp but to be honest at this point fabians bat plays up more then springers did when he was drafted. In a better conf he almost doubled his hr total. This kid if he had another 15 games might have been a top 10-15 pick. I think once he gets a season of milb under him ppl while change their mind on him.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 14, 2021 5:13:23 GMT -5
I dont get the George Springer comp but to be honest at this point fabians bat plays up more then springers did when he was drafted. In a better conf he almost doubled his hr total. This kid if he had another 15 games might have been a top 10-15 pick. I think once he gets a season of milb under him ppl while change their mind on him. Yes, he hits home runs.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 14, 2021 5:30:11 GMT -5
Up the middle defense? Sign me up. A ceiling of JBJ is not a bad thing. That guy was valuable and fun to watch. Best I can tell he had 13th most bWar of 2011 draft. Don't want to limit Fabian but that's a solid best case outcome. Jackie Bradley Jr. hit .331 in three combined SEC seasons with a 13% strikeout rate. His easy plus fielding was his carrying tool. Fabian hit .249 in three combined SEC seasons with a 25% strikeout rate. He plays a good center field.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 6:14:22 GMT -5
A ceiling of JBJ is not a bad thing. That guy was valuable and fun to watch. Best I can tell he had 13th most bWar of 2011 draft. Don't want to limit Fabian but that's a solid best case outcome. Jackie Bradley Jr. hit .331 in three combined SEC seasons with a 13% strikeout rate. His easy plus fielding was his carrying tool. Fabian hit .249 in three combined SEC seasons with a 25% strikeout rate. He plays a good center field. You’re certainly right that Jackie had better stats in college, and hit better in college overall, but it’s not fair to compare cumulative stats that include Fabian hitting .230 as a “freshman” when he should have been a high school senior. Certainly the K problem separates them, but that .230 as a 17YO [[actually he was 18 that year]] is a plus not a minus.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 14, 2021 6:26:42 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr. hit .331 in three combined SEC seasons with a 13% strikeout rate. His easy plus fielding was his carrying tool. Fabian hit .249 in three combined SEC seasons with a 25% strikeout rate. He plays a good center field. You’re certainly right that Jackie had better stats in college, and hit better in college overall, but it’s not fair to compare cumulative stats that include Fabian hitting .230 as a “freshman” when he should have been a high school senior. Certainly the K problem separates them, but that .230 as a 17YO is a plus not a minus. JBJ's profile to me was one that I would have thought translated to a good hit tool. Even in the low minors he was hitting for average. That decreased as he went up the minor league levels and way too many times his hit tool appeared to be lacking, but then he'd do things like put together 29 game hitting streaks and hit the ball hard for long stretches. Still, I thought JBJ, based on how he hit in college and the minors would have been a .270 hitter in the majors but instead was a .230 hitter. I worry that the Ks will doom Fabian to the point that he's a .230 hitter or worse but that could come with a lot of walks and HRs and strong defense. And if he can cut his Ks or drastically improve then the sky is the limit for him.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 14, 2021 6:50:35 GMT -5
This is another reason why comps are horrible (and yet I love them as much as all of you).
We're comparing a player with a whole host of possible outcomes to another player who himself had a whole set of possible outcomes. We never know how guys are going to progress. It's perfectly plausible that a guy like JBJ might have had a better potential hit tool at some point than Fabian does and by the time both of their careers are over Fabian has a better MLB average. He, could also never play in the big leagues.
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 14, 2021 7:46:41 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I believe JBJ's first two seasons at South Carolina were played under the old metal bat standards, while his draft year was played with the new metal bats.
He hit .247/.346/.432/.778 with a K rate of nearly 20% in his draft year.
He turned out OK.
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