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2022 Arbitration Estimates
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Post by Addam603 on Oct 11, 2021 10:35:47 GMT -5
MLB Trade Rumors released their yearly estimates for arb-guys.
Red Sox (9)
Kevin Plawecki – $2.0MM Hunter Renfroe – $7.6MM Ryan Brasier – $1.4MM Rafael Devers – $11.1MM Nick Pivetta – $3.2MM Franchy Cordero – $1.0MM Alex Verdugo – $3.2MM Christian Arroyo – $1.1MM Josh Taylor – $1.1MM
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 11, 2021 11:02:06 GMT -5
Don't think I see any non-tender candidates this year. Even Franchy probably sticks around given that he's got an option remaining.
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Post by manfred on Oct 11, 2021 11:37:16 GMT -5
Franchy may stick, but if that dude makes $1,000,000 next year, he lives a charmed life.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 11, 2021 11:39:29 GMT -5
Don't think I see any non-tender candidates this year. Even Franchy probably sticks around given that he's got an option remaining. From a value standpoint, I completely agree with this. But I'm wondering if we see a couple of surprise non-tenders/trades with the purpose of opening up more 40-man spots. With 40-man spots in such high demand this offseason, I'm guessing there will be fringe players around the league looking for work. For this reason, I don't think they retain Franchy (but try to bring him back on a non-40 split deal). I could also see this happening with Brasier (I expect similar pitchers to be available for less) and possibly even Plawecki (I know, he's easily been worth 2mil as a backup, but he will be 31 next season and they already have 2 MiLB catchers on the 40). There will be many teams deciding between protecting a player like a Whitlock or keeping their 4th OF, backup C, etc. (I can also see the Red Sox shopping Renfroe if they plan on upgrading their OF in FA)
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 11, 2021 11:49:01 GMT -5
Don't think I see any non-tender candidates this year. Even Franchy probably sticks around given that he's got an option remaining. From a value standpoint, I completely agree with this. But I'm wondering if we see a couple of surprise non-tenders/trades with the purpose of opening up more 40-man spots. With 40-man spots in such high demand this offseason, I'm guessing there will be fringe players around the league looking for work. For this reason, I don't think they retain Franchy (but try to bring him back on a non-40 split deal). I could also see this happening with Brasier (I expect similar pitchers to be available for less) and possibly even Plawecki (I know, he's easily been worth 2mil as a backup, but he will be 31 next season and they already have 2 MiLB catchers on the 40). There will be many teams deciding between protecting a player like a Whitlock or keeping their 4th OF, backup C, etc. (I can also see the Red Sox shopping Renfroe if they plan on upgrading their OF in FA) Was gonna say exactly the same thing about Renfroe. He's still a value but not too good to be upgraded.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 11, 2021 11:58:18 GMT -5
Don't think I see any non-tender candidates this year. Even Franchy probably sticks around given that he's got an option remaining. For this reason, I don't think they retain Franchy (but try to bring him back on a non-40 split deal). I could also see this happening with Brasier (I expect similar pitchers to be available for less) and possibly even Plawecki (I know, he's easily been worth 2mil as a backup, but he will be 31 next season and they already have 2 MiLB catchers on the 40). Who is available that's similar to Brasier making a lot less than 1.4mm?
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 11, 2021 13:24:07 GMT -5
The way they have been using Brasier lately makes it clear they think he's a solid bullpen piece. You don't nontender guys making a million unless you don't want them on the roster.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 11, 2021 14:11:11 GMT -5
From a value standpoint, I completely agree with this. But I'm wondering if we see a couple of surprise non-tenders/trades with the purpose of opening up more 40-man spots. With 40-man spots in such high demand this offseason, I'm guessing there will be fringe players around the league looking for work. For this reason, I don't think they retain Franchy (but try to bring him back on a non-40 split deal). I could also see this happening with Brasier (I expect similar pitchers to be available for less) and possibly even Plawecki (I know, he's easily been worth 2mil as a backup, but he will be 31 next season and they already have 2 MiLB catchers on the 40). There will be many teams deciding between protecting a player like a Whitlock or keeping their 4th OF, backup C, etc. (I can also see the Red Sox shopping Renfroe if they plan on upgrading their OF in FA) Was gonna say exactly the same thing about Renfroe. He's still a value but not too good to be upgraded. Yeah, I'm surprised Renfroe figures to get that big a boost. He's suddenly not the huge bargain he was this season, but still ought to have some trade value and I could see Bloom making a move there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 11, 2021 14:16:25 GMT -5
Renfroe made $3.1M this year coming off an abysmal season. Not terribly surprised at the projected raise coming off a very good season as an arb2.
Fair point on the split contract with Franchy but my guess is they try to get that done beforehand.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 11, 2021 14:24:57 GMT -5
The way they have been using Brasier lately makes it clear they think he's a solid bullpen piece. You don't nontender guys making a million unless you don't want them on the roster. The way they have been using Brasier lately makes it clear they think he's a solid bullpen piece. You don't nontender guys making a million unless you don't want them on the roster. Typically you keep these guys on the 40-man - but we've never seen an MLB 40-man roster crunch like what's about to happen. So in this case, I don't think the past will forecast the future (for this offseason). In the case of Brasier, he's a 34 yo middle-innings reliever in his last year of team control. I'm sure the Red Sox will work to keep him, but it's likely they prefer other options with their 40-man spots. As mentioned, the issue here isn't $$ but roster spots. This past offseason the Red Sox were able to acquire Ronaldo Hernandez and Garrett Whitlock for essentially nothing simply because they had the 40-man spots available. This offseason there will be far more Hernandez/Whitlock types available and I'm expecting Bloom to pursue them once again (although I am not expecting the same level of success - they were good and lucky this past year). If I knew exactly which players will become available, I'd likely have a high 6-figure contract with a baseball team. But I'm sure that given some time we could figure out a few.
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Post by jmei on Oct 11, 2021 14:45:15 GMT -5
Renfroe made $3.1M this year coming off an abysmal season. Not terribly surprised at the projected raise coming off a very good season as an arb2. Fair point on the split contract with Franchy but my guess is they try to get that done beforehand. Renfroe also rates well at the stuff arbitration values the most (home runs, RBIs) while struggling at stuff like defensive consistency, walk rate, etc. that are not valued as highly.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 11, 2021 14:53:59 GMT -5
Renfroe made $3.1M this year coming off an abysmal season. Not terribly surprised at the projected raise coming off a very good season as an arb2. Fair point on the split contract with Franchy but my guess is they try to get that done beforehand. Renfroe also rates well at the stuff arbitration values the most (home runs, RBIs) while struggling at stuff like defensive consistency, walk rate, etc. that are not valued as highly. ...Relatedly, every announcer seems compelled to say stuff like "What a phenomenal year Renfroe is having!" as if it was an all-star caliber season, when really it was... fine. Certainly good value for the cost. But he was really just a middle-of-the-pack outfielder in WAR terms, and even just in terms of offensive production he wasn't even in the top 30.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 11, 2021 15:07:12 GMT -5
Renfroe also rates well at the stuff arbitration values the most (home runs, RBIs) while struggling at stuff like defensive consistency, walk rate, etc. that are not valued as highly. ...Relatedly, every announcer seems compelled to say stuff like "What a phenomenal year Renfroe is having!" as if it was an all-star caliber season, when really it was... fine. Certainly good value for the cost. But he was really just a middle-of-the-pack outfielder in WAR terms, and even just in terms of offensive production he wasn't even in the top 30. "wasn't even top 30" Out of how many players was he not top 30? I mean really guys do you remember how bad he was to start the season? From May on he was better than JD and we are going to say he had a fine season. He had a fine season for an established very good player. For a guy that Bloom got for nothing and nothing was really expected from he had a great year. Just like Kiké did. Renfroe is a big reason why the Sox are in the playoffs. He single handedly won games down the stretch. He can be my Rt, fielder for the next few years.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 11, 2021 15:25:47 GMT -5
Renfroe made $3.1M this year coming off an abysmal season. Not terribly surprised at the projected raise coming off a very good season as an arb2. Fair point on the split contract with Franchy but my guess is they try to get that done beforehand. Renfroe also rates well at the stuff arbitration values the most (home runs, RBIs) while struggling at stuff like defensive consistency, walk rate, etc. that are not valued as highly. That's a good point. He's looking at maybe just under $20 million between 2022 and 2023 in arbitration. I'm not sure he would do better than that if he were a free agent this offseason.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 11, 2021 15:34:59 GMT -5
...Relatedly, every announcer seems compelled to say stuff like "What a phenomenal year Renfroe is having!" as if it was an all-star caliber season, when really it was... fine. Certainly good value for the cost. But he was really just a middle-of-the-pack outfielder in WAR terms, and even just in terms of offensive production he wasn't even in the top 30. "wasn't even top 30" Out of how many players was he not top 30? I mean really guys do you remember how bad he was to start the season? From May on he was better than JD and we are going to say he had a fine season. He had a fine season for an established very good player. For a guy that Bloom got for nothing and nothing was really expected from he had a great year. Just like Kiké did. Renfroe is a big reason why the Sox are in the playoffs. He single handedly won games down the stretch. He can be my Rt, fielder for the next few years. Like I said, "certainly good value for the cost." But he had 1.8 fWAR, which was 36th among 47 qualified outfielders - ranking below Benintendi, among others - and a 114 wRC+, which was 21st. (I was looking at all outfielders with 250+ PAs when I said he wasn't in the top 30, but all these numbers tell basically the same story.)
It's true that he was better than JD Martinez from May on, but then, JDM himself had a pretty meh season from May on (111 wRC+, which is mediocre at best for a DH). And games in April also count, right?
ADD: From May 1 on, he had a .325 OBP. From July 1 on it was just .303. Low OBP + high SLG + weirdly uneven defense = fine, in my view.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 11, 2021 16:35:42 GMT -5
"wasn't even top 30" Out of how many players was he not top 30? I mean really guys do you remember how bad he was to start the season? From May on he was better than JD and we are going to say he had a fine season. He had a fine season for an established very good player. For a guy that Bloom got for nothing and nothing was really expected from he had a great year. Just like Kiké did. Renfroe is a big reason why the Sox are in the playoffs. He single handedly won games down the stretch. He can be my Rt, fielder for the next few years. Like I said, "certainly good value for the cost." But he had 1.8 fWAR, which was 36th among 47 qualified outfielders - ranking below Benintendi, among others - and a 114 wRC+, which was 21st. (I was looking at all outfielders with 250+ PAs when I said he wasn't in the top 30, but all these numbers tell basically the same story.) It's true that he was better than JD Martinez from May on, but then, JDM himself had a pretty meh season from May on (111 wRC+, which is mediocre at best for a DH). And games in April also count, right? ADD: From May 1 on, he had a .325 OBP. From July 1 on it was just .303. Low OBP + high SLG + weirdly uneven defense = fine, in my view.
I believe these splits weren't randomness but due to adjustment that Refroe made around the end of April. He became much more aggressive attacking pitches which lead to fewer walks (although he had 13 in June) and fewer strikeouts along with a lower P/PA. It seems he went back to essentially being the player he was in 2017 & 2018 and it likely took the league a little time to adjust to the more aggressive Renfroe. (it's a bit muddy looking at month-to-month, but if you look at his season K%, BB% and P/PA for 2019/2020 you see a very different hitter) If the Red Sox could get something for Renfroe, move Verdugo to RF (I'm a little nervous of his speed drop this year) and re-sign Swisher to play LF (assuming Martinez opts-in) then I think the team looks pretty good going into next year. (getting one of the top middle-infielders and a short-term platoon partner for Dalbec would be nice too).
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 11, 2021 17:20:05 GMT -5
Beni shown at $9.3m by MLBTR for those looking for a Renfroe reference point.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 12, 2021 8:51:48 GMT -5
In the case of Brasier, he's a 34 yo middle-innings reliever in his last year of team control. I'm sure the Red Sox will work to keep him, but it's likely they prefer other options with their 40-man spots. 2 years. He was at 3.109 entering the year. They have him through 2023. Beni shown at $9.3m by MLBTR for those looking for a Renfroe reference point. Third year of arb versus second, so not quite apples to apples.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2021 9:52:28 GMT -5
In the case of Brasier, he's a 34 yo middle-innings reliever in his last year of team control. I'm sure the Red Sox will work to keep him, but it's likely they prefer other options with their 40-man spots. 2 years. He was at 3.109 entering the year. They have him through 2023. That's fair - but he will turn 36 that season, so I don't think it changes the decision much. I've been a big Brasier proponent since he got here, but his spot is in jeopardy with the roster crunch (I'm assuming the Red Sox plan to go over the lux tax next year).
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 10:01:32 GMT -5
Perhaps someone already put the figures out there but assuming the sox don't non tender anyone and these arbitration projections are correct. Where would that leave the sox in terms of payroll going into free agency?
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Post by coke0myfavdrink on Oct 12, 2021 10:44:20 GMT -5
Perhaps someone already put the figures out there but assuming the sox don't non tender anyone and these arbitration projections are correct. Where would that leave the sox in terms of payroll going into free agency? These numbers seem to be in redSoxpayroll on twitters spreadsheet and he has them at 178.75 million.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 12:16:07 GMT -5
Perhaps someone already put the figures out there but assuming the sox don't non tender anyone and these arbitration projections are correct. Where would that leave the sox in terms of payroll going into free agency? These numbers seem to be in redSoxpayroll on twitters spreadsheet and he has them at 178.75 million. Thank you for those figures and a good direction to go to look closer. That 178.75 is with JD and Vazquez back and Schwarber, richards and perez gone which all makes sense. Doesn't leave them with much room to maneuver. Edit: I guess we kind of knew that they wouldn't have a lot of room underneath the luxury tax either way. Hopefully it goes up at least 5 million or so. I've seen some reports that MLB wants to lower it to as low as 180 million which I'd imagine is a non starter for the mlbpa.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 12, 2021 12:58:15 GMT -5
Well we have no idea what the CBT is even going to be or how it's even going to work, so don't assume anything yet.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 13:00:52 GMT -5
That's a very good point. Nobody really knows how it will look this offseason.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 12, 2021 14:30:20 GMT -5
...Relatedly, every announcer seems compelled to say stuff like "What a phenomenal year Renfroe is having!" as if it was an all-star caliber season, when really it was... fine. Certainly good value for the cost. But he was really just a middle-of-the-pack outfielder in WAR terms, and even just in terms of offensive production he wasn't even in the top 30. "wasn't even top 30" Out of how many players was he not top 30? I mean really guys do you remember how bad he was to start the season? From May on he was better than JD and we are going to say he had a fine season. He had a fine season for an established very good player. For a guy that Bloom got for nothing and nothing was really expected from he had a great year. Just like Kiké did. Renfroe is a big reason why the Sox are in the playoffs. He single handedly won games down the stretch. He can be my Rt, fielder for the next few years. Right. From May 26 Renfroe hit .274 .335 .551 .886; overall he did a great job in the toughest RF in baseball, played a few games in CF to help the offense, and had 16 assists, many of them improbable and clutch. And a lot of that praise and "all-star talk" came when he was hitting .290 .351 .583 .934 from May 26 to Sept 8, which put him in the group with Xander and Raffy. (.211 .268 .421 .689 from Sept 10 to the end, and now not much of a threat in the ALDS) I know you can't just throw out the first six or seven weeks, but only nine OF in baseball had an OPS of .870 or higher; tenth was the Dodgers RF at .854. Even counting his bad start his OPS was .816, 13th in mlb, just ahead of Arozarena (yes, I know it's relevant that OPS overvalues his power and under-penalizes his modest OBP)
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