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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 16, 2022 12:20:52 GMT -5
Some GM on ESPN supposedly said it was going to take Herschell Walker type trade to get him. Meaning either A) we dont have the necessary pieces or B) we dont want to give up the necessary pieces. Obviously you can forget giving up expiring contracts, that wont move the needle. The two players I dont want want to give up are Raffy and Mayer. I know Mayer hasnt played above A ball but I want to see it play out. Seems to kind of have that it factor. Anybody else within reason I'd move. I know this isn't what you were suggesting and it's not even something I would want to happen, but the idea of a trade centered around Devers for Soto is kinda interesting. If Devers just wants a huge contract the Nationals have just proven they're willing to shell one out and are probably just desperate to keep a star locked up at this point, and if Soto wants a shorter term deal with an astronomical AAV that will allow him to hit free agency at ~30, that seems like a much more palatable risk for Bloom, too. Again, not saying I want it to happen, but just a fun thought experiment.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 16, 2022 12:43:51 GMT -5
Some GM on ESPN supposedly said it was going to take Herschell Walker type trade to get him. Meaning either A) we dont have the necessary pieces or B) we dont want to give up the necessary pieces. Obviously you can forget giving up expiring contracts, that wont move the needle. The two players I dont want want to give up are Raffy and Mayer. I know Mayer hasnt played above A ball but I want to see it play out. Seems to kind of have that it factor. Anybody else within reason I'd move. I know this isn't what you were suggesting and it's not even something I would want to happen, but the idea of a trade centered around Devers for Soto is kinda interesting. If Devers just wants a huge contract the Nationals have just proven they're willing to shell one out and are probably just desperate to keep a star locked up at this point, and if Soto wants a shorter term deal with an astronomical AAV that will allow him to hit free agency at ~30, that seems like a much more palatable risk for Bloom, too. Again, not saying I want it to happen, but just a fun thought experiment. Not sure where the list came from but both Soto and Raffy were listed as top 5 hitters in baseball. If I am the GM in Washington, Raffy is the key piece I want back. So I can say to the fan base I got equal value because who wants to be the GM that traded Soto at age 23. The fact that Raffy has been non committal about his future, though he said he wanted to be here makes this highly unlikely. My biggest fear is that both Raffy and Soto end up in NY. Could stomach it better if it was the Mets. Owner has a can do attitude and the wallet to back it up.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2022 12:54:30 GMT -5
The only way a Devers for Soto deal makes any sense is if the nats are allowed to negotiate with rafi before and can get him signed to an extension in line with what they offered Soto. Otherwise they're back in the same hole but with a guy who is a free agent a year earlier.
Edit: to throw another thought out. A 3 team deal where the sox get Soto team 3 gets Devers and Washington gets basically a gigantic prospect haul from 2 different teams would make more sense than a Devers for Soto deal. At least in my eyes. Needless to say 3 team deals are rare and get murky so the likelihood of that is close to nil.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 16, 2022 12:59:19 GMT -5
Soto's a free agent after 2024. I'll give him 17 WAR from now until then. He's already on a 17 million arb payday. Say he's got like 70 million in salary coming before free agency.
17 war = $145 million in value. So he's got like $75 million in surplus value. He's worth a lot, but since he's already getting paid a bunch, I wouldn't expect some unheard of trade haul.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2022 13:08:30 GMT -5
Soto's a free agent after 2024. I'll give him 17 WAR from now until then. He's already on a 17 million arb payday. Say he's got like 70 million in salary coming before free agency. 17 war = $145 million in value. So he's got like $75 million in surplus value. He's worth a lot, but since he's already getting paid a bunch, I wouldn't expect some unheard of trade haul. Time will tell but if traded this season with 2.5 years of control left being such a young superstar top 5 player in the league I personally would expect some sort of unheard of trade haul. Not saying it's going to be some teams literal top 5 prospects but id guess at least one top 20 prospect in all of mlb and at least two other top 100 prospects and then more lotto tix and maybe that's not even enough. Which maybe isn't unheard of but it's still a crap ton.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 16, 2022 13:08:59 GMT -5
The only way a Devers for Soto deal makes any sense is if the nats are allowed to negotiate with rafi before and can get him signed to an extension in line with what they offered Soto. Otherwise they're back in the same hole but with a guy who is a free agent a year earlier. Edit: to throw another thought out. A 3 team deal where the sox get Soto team 3 gets Devers and Washington gets basically a gigantic prospect haul from 2 different teams would make more sense than a Devers for Soto deal. At least in my eyes. Needless to say 3 team deals are rare and get murky so the likelihood of that is close to nil. Well the only way any Soto deal happens is if the team receiving him negotiated an extension beforehand so I’m assuming that in any hypothetical Devers for Soto trade the Nationals would be granted the same courtesy
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 16, 2022 13:09:25 GMT -5
Boston should pass laws to benefit the Red Sox at Toronto's expense. You mean start our own 'revenge tour'? It's Canada's health policy to protect control its citizenry, not Toronto's dictates. Fixed
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 16, 2022 13:23:25 GMT -5
Trade for Soto you cowards.
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Post by christianarroyossock on Jul 16, 2022 13:24:14 GMT -5
I think Soto is perfect for the orioles. To make the deal they can give up lots of prospects while maintaining their roster and they can also eat some bad contracts for a couple years if that’s what it takes to get the deal done. Their team has already shown they can win, and once their young guys develop and if they can get Soto in there, they’re World Series contenders in no time.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 16, 2022 13:33:37 GMT -5
I think Soto is perfect for the orioles. To make the deal they can give up lots of prospects while maintaining their roster and they can also eat some bad contracts for a couple years if that’s what it takes to get the deal done. Their team has already shown they can win, and once their young guys develop and if they can get Soto in there, they’re World Series contenders in no time. But can you have both of those things happen? If they give up lots of prospects, then wouldn't their young guys be developing in Washington?
It's radical but there's also no way that those two teams, who have been fighting over cable TV rights in court for years, make any kind of blockbuster deal...
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Post by Guidas on Jul 16, 2022 13:56:08 GMT -5
The AAV of the Nats offer was $30 million a year. If the Red Sox and Nats spoke and agreed on a player package for a trade, contingent on the Red Sox having a 72 hour window to negotiate they could certainly afford an AAV of $35-$40 million over 10 years. That would also give Soto another bite of the apple when he is still young enough to generate value. Just a thought.
The Sox great advantage is $$$ not a flush system. A lot of teams are reticent to throw money around. NYY, LAD, NYM, BOS and…?
Also, consider the historical success of prospects. Very, very few become average MLB players. A lot of times, these guys are unproven assets riding on hype. A successful GM has to know (or, at least, have a very good sense of) when to leverage the hype and when to hold onto your guys. For every Rafi Devers (thank Dave Dombrowski for not trading him) there’s a Yóan Moncada, Henry Owens, Rubby DeLa Rosa, Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly etc.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2022 13:59:10 GMT -5
The only way a Devers for Soto deal makes any sense is if the nats are allowed to negotiate with rafi before and can get him signed to an extension in line with what they offered Soto. Otherwise they're back in the same hole but with a guy who is a free agent a year earlier. Edit: to throw another thought out. A 3 team deal where the sox get Soto team 3 gets Devers and Washington gets basically a gigantic prospect haul from 2 different teams would make more sense than a Devers for Soto deal. At least in my eyes. Needless to say 3 team deals are rare and get murky so the likelihood of that is close to nil. Well the only way any Soto deal happens is if the team receiving him negotiated an extension beforehand so I’m assuming that in any hypothetical Devers for Soto trade the Nationals would be granted the same courtesy I disagree, he's not an FA for two more seasons after this one. It really wouldn't surprise me if some team wanting to go all in on a WS in the next 3 seasons said you know what he's the missing piece and worry about the extension later.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 16, 2022 14:02:21 GMT -5
Well the only way any Soto deal happens is if the team receiving him negotiated an extension beforehand so I’m assuming that in any hypothetical Devers for Soto trade the Nationals would be granted the same courtesy I disagree, he's not an FA for two more seasons after this one. It really wouldn't surprise me if some team wanting to go all in on a WS in the next 3 seasons said you know what he's the missing piece and worry about the extension later. There is 0 chance anyone would do that given what he’s going to cost
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2022 14:03:57 GMT -5
The a a V of the Nat offer was $30 million a year. If the Red Sox and Nat spoke and agreed on a player package for a trade, contingent on the Red Sox having a 72 hour window to negotiate they could certainly afford an a AV of $35-$40 million over 10 years. That would also give Soto another bite of the apple when he is still young enough to generate value. Just a thought. Sox have shown no inclination to do such a deal or they probably would have offered mookie it. Even if they were I still come back to my thoughts that they would extend one of those offers to one player. So my thoughts is give rafi the deal and keep the prospect haul rather than trade an insane haul for Soto and lose Devers anyway. Rafi/mayer/yorke/bello/Casas is a better bet than basically just Soto in my mind. Not saying it'd cost all 4 of those guys but I wouldn't be shocked if it cost 3.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2022 14:05:10 GMT -5
I disagree, he's not an FA for two more seasons after this one. It really wouldn't surprise me if some team wanting to go all in on a WS in the next 3 seasons said you know what he's the missing piece and worry about the extension later. There is 0 chance anyone would do that given what he’s going to cost Well we'll have to agree to disagree. I'm not saying a team would trade for him that thought he was for sure leaving when he's a fa but I could see a team dealing for him without an extension in place. If it won them a WS it'd be worth it whether he left or not.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 16, 2022 14:09:50 GMT -5
There is 0 chance anyone would do that given what he’s going to cost Well we'll have to agree to disagree. I'm not saying a team would trade for him that thought he was for sure leaving when he's a fa but I could see a team dealing for him without an extension in place. If it won them a WS it'd be worth it whether he left or not. I don’t think this is agree to disagree, because I don’t think what you’re proposing is even the least bit logical. Has there ever been a precedent of a team taking that risk when destroying the farm system for a prospect that wasn’t old?
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 16, 2022 14:19:13 GMT -5
Soto now on the market after rejecting 15/$440m Nata offer. Per Rosethal Wow! Mayer/York/Bello enough? I'd rather just keep the 3 and sign Devers to a mega deal. Yeah if I can guarantee anything to anyone, John Henry isn't going to pay 450 million to Soto. He's having a hard time figuring out giving Devers 300 million.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 16, 2022 14:35:24 GMT -5
I'd rather just keep the 3 and sign Devers to a mega deal. Yeah if I can guarantee anything to anyone, John Henry isn't going to pay 450 million to Soto. He's having a hard time figuring out giving Devers 300 million. The best plan is getting Soto, extending him AND Devers and build around them. The second best plan is extending Devers AND hanging on to the prospects - most of whom won't be average MLB players (but Casas and Mayer probably will) and trying to find some complementary pieces (Trea Turner and a good starter I have no sense Bloom/Henry want to pay Rafi. If they don't and let Xander, Eovaldi and ultimately Devers walk (or even getting some prospect not in the MLB top 10 for 1 year of Rafi), then my sense is these guys are NOT as serious about winning as they have been since 2003 and we descend into "just made or missed the playoffs" mediocrity (like the Patriots are currently doing).
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Post by incandenza on Jul 16, 2022 14:47:40 GMT -5
Yeah if I can guarantee anything to anyone, John Henry isn't going to pay 450 million to Soto. He's having a hard time figuring out giving Devers 300 million. The best plan is getting Soto, extending him AND Devers and build around them. The second best plan is extending Devers AND hanging on to the prospects - most of whom won't be average MLB players (but Casas and Mayer probably will) and trying to find some complementary pieces (Trea Turner and a good starter I have no sense Bloom/Henry want to pay Rafi. If they don't and let Xander, Eovaldi and ultimately Devers walk (or even getting some prospect not in the MLB top 10 for 1 year of Rafi), then my sense is these guys are NOT as serious about winning as they have been since 2003 and we descend into "just made or missed the playoffs" mediocrity (like the Patriots are currently doing). One of these is not like the others. Xander and Rafi are giving them huge surplus value, but Eovaldi (and JDM) are eminently replaceable at market rates.
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 16, 2022 14:57:46 GMT -5
Yeah if I can guarantee anything to anyone, John Henry isn't going to pay 450 million to Soto. He's having a hard time figuring out giving Devers 300 million. The best plan is getting Soto, extending him AND Devers and build around them. The second best plan is extending Devers AND hanging on to the prospects - most of whom won't be average MLB players (but Casas and Mayer probably will) and trying to find some complementary pieces (Trea Turner and a good starter I have no sense Bloom/Henry want to pay Rafi. If they don't and let Xander, Eovaldi and ultimately Devers walk (or even getting some prospect not in the MLB top 10 for 1 year of Rafi), then my sense is these guys are NOT as serious about winning as they have been since 2003 and we descend into "just made or missed the playoffs" mediocrity (like the Patriots are currently doing). Ohh I agree. A dream team of Soto and Devers would be baseball's worst nightmare. However, Henry doesn't have it in him to keep Devers and trade for Soto and then extend him. I would trade Bello, Casas, and Yorke to get Soto and that might not even be enough to get him.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 16, 2022 15:02:02 GMT -5
Maybe the Angels should trade for Soto so that they have the 3 best players in the world, with no depth, no payroll flexibility and can continue missing the playoffs.
I notice the Dodgers first pick is #40 this year and it's not because they signed a free agent with a QO.
The goal is sustainability, not a 3 Hall of Fame players team and a bunch of veterans on minor league deals.
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Post by bcsox on Jul 16, 2022 15:09:20 GMT -5
Does Soto hit to left? It seems every highlight I see of him consists of him ripping homers to right. Granted they are usually 40 rows up, so they would be gone at Fenway, but I thought the advantage to a lot of lefties is the short swing to Left?
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 16, 2022 15:10:55 GMT -5
Lowkey I hope that all of this Soto talk smokes the room so that Chaim can make a few relatively under the radar moves.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 16, 2022 15:14:13 GMT -5
Also, MLB and Players' Union still far apart on Intl Draft.
Start firing up the Qualifying Offers! Eovaldi, Sale (if he opts out) and Xander (if they let him walk) for sure. Vazquez and JDM maybe.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 16, 2022 15:21:49 GMT -5
The best plan is getting Soto, extending him AND Devers and build around them. The second best plan is extending Devers AND hanging on to the prospects - most of whom won't be average MLB players (but Casas and Mayer probably will) and trying to find some complementary pieces (Trea Turner and a good starter I have no sense Bloom/Henry want to pay Rafi. If they don't and let Xander, Eovaldi and ultimately Devers walk (or even getting some prospect not in the MLB top 10 for 1 year of Rafi), then my sense is these guys are NOT as serious about winning as they have been since 2003 and we descend into "just made or missed the playoffs" mediocrity (like the Patriots are currently doing). One of these is not like the others. Xander and Rafi are giving them huge surplus value, but Eovaldi (and JDM) are eminently replaceable at market rates. Agree - we all have their faves. If they keep Rafi at the very least, then I think they are still predicated on fielding the best team in the AL East. I think they believe Mayer is 1.5 to 2 years away and will find a stop-gap SS or move Story there and go find a second baseman. The pitching in the FA market is sketchy, so I don't know where they think they'll find a #1/2 starter, but they're deluding themselves if they believe there's one in AA or AAA who will be ready for next year.
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